研究报告 Research Report 17 Aug 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W33 周度趋势解析：海外消费表现优异，新消费主题股价稳健回暖 Week 33 Discretionary Trends: Overseas Consumption Performs Well, New Consumption- Themed Stocks Steadily Recover [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 德业股份 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike's lawsuit against Edison Chen, founder of CLOT, initially reported as a claim for $126.6 million, was later corrected to approximately $12,661.5, highlighting a clerical error but raising questions about the relationship between the two parties [1][2][5]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, naming Edison Chen and his company Juice Los Angeles LLC as defendants [3]. - The corrected claim amount of $12,661.5 pertains to unpaid "goods and services" during Juice Los Angeles LLC's role as a distributor for Nike [6]. - Chen is personally liable as he is the guarantor for Juice's account with Nike, indicating a direct financial responsibility [6]. Group 2: Implications of the Lawsuit - The lawsuit signifies a notable shift in the long-standing partnership, as Nike's decision to publicly sue a partner of nearly 20 years over a relatively small amount is unusual for a company with annual revenues in the billions [2][4]. - Speculation arose regarding potential breaches of non-compete agreements or intellectual property disputes, especially following Chen's recent partnership with Adidas after ending his collaboration with Nike [4][7]. - The incident has led to discussions about the deterioration of the relationship between Nike and Chen, contrasting with the previously perceived amicable conclusion of their contract [7][25]. Group 3: Background on CLOT and Edison Chen - CLOT was founded in 2003 by Edison Chen and Kevin Poon, aiming to bridge Eastern and Western cultures through fashion [10]. - The brand has collaborated with multiple companies, including Nike, leveraging Chen's celebrity status to penetrate the Asia-Pacific market [11]. - CLOT's designs often incorporate Chinese cultural elements, with notable collaborations like the Air Max1 "Kiss of Death," which reflects traditional Chinese philosophy [13][18]. Group 4: Market Context and Trends - The lawsuit occurs against a backdrop of Nike's aggressive legal strategies to protect its brand, as seen in previous lawsuits against other companies [31][32]. - The retail landscape for CLOT's Juice stores has been challenging, with a significant reduction in physical locations and sales impacted by market dynamics and consumer behavior [33][35]. - The shift in Chen's partnership from Nike to Adidas may reflect broader trends in brand positioning and consumer perception within the sneaker and streetwear markets [38].

Core Points - Adidas faces controversy over its new shoe "Oaxaca Slip-On," which is accused of cultural appropriation of traditional Mexican huarache sandals, leading to strong criticism from Mexican politicians [2] - The company has issued an apology, acknowledging the cultural significance of the Mexican indigenous community and the craftsmanship involved [2] - The shoe was developed in collaboration with Mexican designer Willy Chavarría, who also apologized for the unauthorized use of cultural elements [2] Financial Performance - Footwear contributes over half of Adidas's revenue in 2024, aiding the company in returning to profitability [3] - Adidas experienced a decline in net profit from 2021 to 2023, with 2023 marking its first loss since 1992 [4] - Key drivers for revenue growth in footwear include soccer shoes, running shoes, and the resurgence of classic models like Samba, which saw a 300% increase in sales [4] Recent Financial Results - In Q2 2025, Adidas reported global revenue of €5.952 billion, a 2.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 94.6% to €369 million [5] - Footwear revenue grew by 9%, with the ADIZERO 0 series running business increasing by over 25% [5] Impact of Tariffs - Adidas's CEO, Gulden, indicated that the company faced tens of millions of euros in impact from tariffs in Q2, with an expected increase in product costs of €200 million in the U.S. [6] - The company does not plan to pass on increased costs to other markets [6] Cultural Appropriation Context - The controversy surrounding cultural appropriation differs from simple plagiarism, as it involves unclear boundaries of original IP and adjustments made to distinguish from the original [7] - Experts suggest that brands should communicate with original IP holders before using cultural elements to avoid potential infringement [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.23% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 270.12 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 19.42 billion, representing 13.66% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.034 billion, with the most bought stocks being China Life, Alibaba, Li Auto, and SMIC, while Tencent, Meituan, and Crystal International saw the most net selling [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - 361 Degrees (1361.HK) - 361 Degrees reported a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year to HKD 5.7 billion for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 9% to HKD 860 million [9][10] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.204 per share, raising the payout ratio to 45% [9][10] - The e-commerce channel showed strong performance with a 45% year-on-year growth, accounting for 32% of total revenue, and the gross margin improved to 41.5% due to cost control and price increases [10][11] - The company is actively exploring new channel development opportunities, with plans to increase the number of super stores to 100 by the end of the year [11] Group 3: Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector experienced a surge following the announcement of positive clinical trial results for a new drug by Rongchang Biotech, leading to significant gains in related stocks [3] - Insurance stocks performed strongly, with Sunshine Insurance rising over 7% and other major insurers also closing higher [4] - The overall consumer environment remains challenging, yet 361 Degrees has maintained its full-year guidance, indicating resilience in its business strategy [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding AG, a Swiss sports brand known for its high-performance running shoes, has experienced rapid growth, achieving over 1 billion Swiss francs in revenue for the first time in 2022 and projected to reach 2.318 billion Swiss francs in 2024, doubling its revenue in just two years [3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - On Holding AG is recognized as the "Apple of the running world" due to its innovative technology and unique product experience, which have disrupted the industry [3]. - The company has adopted a global growth strategy focusing on stable growth in Europe and North America while rapidly expanding in Asia, particularly China, which is expected to become its second-largest market [4]. - For the fiscal year 2025 Q2, On reported a net sales increase of 32% to 749 million Swiss francs, with the Asia-Pacific market seeing a remarkable 101.3% growth to 119 million Swiss francs [4]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - Despite the revenue growth, On Holding AG reported a significant net profit decline of 232.7%, shifting from a profit of 30.8 million Swiss francs in the previous year to a loss of 40.9 million Swiss francs, attributed to foreign exchange losses from the appreciation of the Swiss franc [4][5]. - The company's management is prioritizing market share and brand strength over short-term profits, a common strategy in the fast-moving consumer goods and sportswear sectors [5]. - The future challenge lies in managing expense growth, maintaining gross margins, and transitioning to a profit model as revenue growth slows; failure to balance these factors could lead to a scale trap and increased losses [5].

Core Viewpoint - 361 Degrees reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11% to 5.7 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 9% to 860 million yuan for the first half of 2025, while maintaining its annual guidance despite a challenging consumer environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 11% to 5.7 billion yuan, with adult products growing by 10.9% and children's clothing by 11.4% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 9% to 860 million yuan [2]. - The company declared a dividend of 20.4 Hong Kong cents per share, with a payout ratio increasing from 40% to 45% [2]. Sales Channels and Product Performance - E-commerce sales showed strong performance, growing by 45% and accounting for 32% of total revenue, with exclusive products making up 85% of e-commerce sales [1][2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 41.5%, driven by cost control and increased product prices, with adult and children's clothing margins at 42.5% and 41.6%, respectively [1]. Operational Developments - The company significantly improved its operating cash flow, increasing 2.27 times to 524 million yuan, attributed to reduced inventory and improved payment terms [1]. - 361 Degrees is actively exploring new channel development opportunities, with 49 "super stores" opened by the end of the first half of 2025, aiming to reach 100 by year-end [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the introduction of new store formats, which may contribute to revenue growth [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.60, 0.69, and 0.76 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 6.6 Hong Kong dollars based on a 10x PE ratio for 2025 [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year for H1 2025, driven by strong growth in e-commerce and a focus on professional sports branding [1][2][3] - The company has shown a consistent increase in dividend payout ratio, reaching 45% in H1 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - The company has improved its operational cash flow significantly, with a 227% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow for H1 2025, attributed to better accounts receivable management [3] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for H1 2025 reached 5.7 billion yuan, with e-commerce contributing 1.82 billion yuan, marking a 45% increase and accounting for 31.8% of total revenue [1] - Adult business revenue was 4.44 billion yuan, up 10.8%, while children's business revenue was 1.26 billion yuan, up 11.4% [2] - Footwear and accessories saw significant growth, with revenues of 3.29 billion yuan and 0.3 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 15.7% and 83.2% [2] Store Expansion and Cash Flow - The company operated 7,026 retail outlets as of mid-2025, with 5,669 located in mainland China, and an average store area increase to 156 square meters [3] - The new "super premium store" format has opened 49 locations, expected to drive further growth due to its diverse product offerings [3] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 520 million yuan, showing a substantial improvement in operational efficiency [3] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.315 billion yuan, 1.493 billion yuan, and 1.688 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 13.49%, and 13.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company On has experienced significant growth since entering the Chinese market in 2018, but recent financial results indicate a decline in profitability, particularly in the second quarter of 2025, raising concerns about its rapid expansion strategy and high costs [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, On reported net sales of 1.476 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, but net profit fell to 15.8 million Swiss francs, down 87.1% [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net sales figure of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a 32% increase year-on-year, but a net loss of 40.9 million Swiss francs compared to a profit of 30.8 million Swiss francs in the same period last year [2][3]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 dropped from 11.4% to 1.1%, with the second quarter margin falling from 5.4% to -5.5% [3]. Market Expansion - On has seen substantial growth in the Asia-Pacific region, with net sales reaching 239.7 million Swiss francs in the first half of 2025, a 114.8% increase, making it the fastest-growing market for the company [4]. - The company plans to expand its presence in China, aiming to exceed 100 direct stores by 2026, necessitating the opening of over 30 new stores annually [4]. - On's marketing strategy in China includes partnerships with platforms like Weimob and collaborations with celebrities, with marketing expenses accounting for about 10% of net sales [4][5]. Brand Positioning - On is perceived as a premium brand, with products priced above 1,000 yuan, and has been criticized for its high pricing strategy, which some view as a means to capitalize on the middle-class demographic [7][8]. - The brand's initial focus on professional running shoes has shifted towards a more luxury-oriented marketing approach, leading to concerns about its core identity and customer engagement [8][9]. - Despite its strong technical foundation, On faces challenges in maintaining its professional image amidst a growing emphasis on luxury branding [8][9].

Core Insights - On Running, a brand that entered the Chinese market in 2018, has seen rapid growth but is now facing challenges, including a decline in net profit and a second-quarter loss in 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, On Running achieved net sales of 1.4758 billion Swiss francs, a growth of 37.2%, but net profit fell by 87.1% to 15.8 million Swiss francs [3][4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net sales figure of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a year-on-year increase of 32%, but a net loss of 40.9 million Swiss francs compared to a profit of 30.8 million Swiss francs in the same period last year [3][4] - The net profit margin has also declined, with the second quarter net profit margin dropping from 5.4% to -5.5% year-on-year, and the first half margin falling from 11.4% to 1.1% [4] Market Expansion - On Running has seen significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, with net sales of 239.7 million Swiss francs in the first half of 2025, marking a 114.8% increase, making it the fastest-growing market for the brand [5] - The company plans to expand its presence in China, aiming to have over 100 direct stores by 2026, with a need to accelerate store openings to meet this target [6] Marketing Strategy - On Running's marketing strategy includes high-profile collaborations and a focus on premium positioning, with marketing expenses accounting for about 10% of net sales in recent years [6][7] - The brand has been criticized for its high pricing strategy, with products often exceeding 1,000 yuan, leading to perceptions of it being a luxury brand rather than a performance-focused one [8][9] Consumer Perception - While On Running is recognized for its technical innovations in running shoes, some consumers feel that the brand's marketing emphasizes luxury over performance, leading to a disconnect with its original target audience of serious runners [9][10] - There are concerns about the brand's community engagement, with reports that it prioritizes attracting new customers over retaining existing ones, which has caused dissatisfaction among loyal users [10]

Core Insights - The company On has experienced rapid growth since entering the Chinese market in 2018, becoming a popular choice among consumers, rivaling established brands like Nike and Adidas. However, recent financial reports indicate a decline in profitability, with net profit dropping significantly in the first half of 2025 and losses reported in Q2 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, On achieved net sales of 14.758 billion Swiss francs, a growth of 37.2%, but net profit fell by 87.1% to 15.8 million Swiss francs [3][4]. - Q2 2025 saw a net sales figure of 7.492 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year increase of 32%, but the company reported a net loss of 40.9 million Swiss francs, compared to a profit of 30.8 million Swiss francs in the same period last year [3][4]. - The net profit margin has also declined, with Q2 2025 showing a negative margin of -5.5%, down from 5.4% in the previous year, and the first half of 2025 showing a margin of 1.1%, down from 11.4% [4]. Market Expansion and Strategy - On has seen significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, with net sales reaching 2.397 billion Swiss francs in the first half of 2025, a remarkable increase of 114.8% [5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in China, with plans to increase the number of direct stores from 70 to over 100 by 2026, necessitating the opening of at least 30 new stores annually [5]. - On's marketing strategy includes partnerships with platforms like Weimeng and collaborations with celebrities, which have led to marketing expenses constituting about 10% of net sales [5][6]. Brand Positioning and Consumer Perception - On is perceived as a premium brand, with products priced above 1,000 yuan, and is often associated with luxury branding, leading to mixed consumer perceptions [7][8]. - The brand's marketing emphasizes high-end positioning, which some consumers view as a strategy to capitalize on the middle-class demographic rather than focusing on the technical aspects of running shoes [8]. - Despite its strong brand presence, there are concerns regarding customer engagement and community management, with reports of dissatisfaction among long-term users regarding the brand's focus on attracting new customers [9].