Group 1 - The yield on UK two-year government bonds decreased by 10 basis points to 3.91% [1]

英国2年期国债收益率创下自5月9日以来的最低水平，当日下跌约9个基点，至3.92%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK 30-year government bond yield fell by over 7 basis points to 5.25%, marking the lowest level since May 8 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - The current yield level reflects broader economic conditions and market expectations [1]

Overall Credit Bond Issuance Situation - In May, the total credit bond issuance was 811 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.8% month-on-month but an increase of 10.2% year-on-year. Net financing was 70.4 billion yuan, down 176 billion yuan month-on-month but up 27.3 billion yuan year-on-year [1][3][6] - The issuance of local government bonds (城投债) and industrial bonds (产业债) showed a divergence, with local government bonds decreasing in both month-on-month and year-on-year terms, while industrial bonds reached the highest level in the past five years for both issuance and net financing [1][3][9] Local Government Bonds - In May, local government bond issuance was 173.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.0% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year. The net financing gap was -56.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative decrease of 2.9 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9][30] - From January to May, over half of the provinces saw a decline in both issuance and net financing of local government bonds compared to the previous year, with 22 provinces experiencing negative cumulative net financing [1][39][40] Industrial Bonds - In May, industrial bond issuance was 637 billion yuan, down 44.3% month-on-month but up 19.2% year-on-year. Net financing was 126.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.3% month-on-month but an increase of 46.5% year-on-year [6][9][30] - Cumulatively, from January to May, industrial bond issuance was 4.05 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while net financing decreased by 20.8% year-on-year [1][9][30] Issuance Structure by Rating - In May, the issuance of credit bonds across all ratings decreased month-on-month, with AAA-rated bonds seeing a slight increase year-on-year. The net financing gap for AA+ and AA-rated bonds narrowed both month-on-month and year-on-year [24][27] - The issuance of local government bonds across all ratings decreased month-on-month, with only AA-rated bonds showing a narrowing of the net financing gap year-on-year [27][30] Regional and Industry Analysis - In May, 25 provinces saw a decrease in local government bond issuance, with 17 provinces experiencing negative net financing. The top three provinces for issuance were Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang, all of which saw a month-on-month decrease [39][40] - For industrial bonds, most industries saw a month-on-month decrease in issuance, with 21 industries reporting positive net financing. Significant net financing was observed in public utilities, non-bank financials, and petrochemicals [2][39][41]

港股方面，近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强，短期趋势或延续；从中期来看， AH股溢价当前处于较低位置，美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高，这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面，关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪，但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累，OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险，油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面，关税带来的经济政策不确定性，以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持，短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑：叶景) 海外方面，美国5月就业数据出现一定分化，新增非农整体超预期，ADP偏弱，美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险，但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹，考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击，美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹，美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态，市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面，中美关税缓和后，5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖，生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升，印证了出口链景气度的修复；购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降，反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性，预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周央行超预 ...

Core Viewpoint - Invesco's outlook for Asian high-yield bonds indicates a positive trend with a total return of 2.7% year-to-date, suggesting that flexible allocation strategies focusing on BBB and BB-rated bonds can capture credit risk premiums and generate stable returns [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Asian high-yield bonds have shown a "V" shaped recovery from early April to May 2025, indicating limited direct impact from tariffs [1] - Despite strong returns in 2024, Invesco expects yield to be the main driver of returns in the second half of the year [1] - Selected B-rated bonds are anticipated to provide incremental returns, enhancing overall portfolio yield without excessive credit default risk [1] Group 2: Default Rates and Resilience - The default rate for Asian high-yield bonds (excluding real estate) is expected to remain low in 2025, with only a small portion of bonds reaching distressed yield levels [2] - Limited exposure to the oil and gas sector and resilient performance of commodity issuers with low cash costs contribute to this outlook [2] - Issuers are proactively refinancing upcoming debts or securing bank financing to manage their obligations [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Invesco favors bonds with yields between 8% and 10% for their ideal total return potential, contrasting with the volatility faced by equities [3] - The firm remains optimistic about subordinated financial bonds, priority lien bonds backed by renewable or infrastructure assets, and the Macau gaming sector, which are less affected by tariffs and have proven resilient post-COVID-19 [3] - Emerging market frontier sovereign bonds present unique excess return opportunities amid ongoing structural reforms and potential credit rating upgrades [3] - The yield spread between BB and BBB-rated bonds is narrowing, suggesting a focus on credit selection rather than simply overweighting BB-rated bonds [3]

Group 1 - European government bonds opened mostly flat, with the 2-year German government bond yield unchanged at 1.87% [1] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 2.56% and 3% respectively [1] - Traders are awaiting the German 2030 bond auction and comments from European Central Bank officials Villeroy and Rehn [1] Group 2 - Traders have increased bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, now expecting a 45 basis point cut by the end of the year, up from 41 basis points on Monday [1] - Data shows that the number of employed individuals in the UK has seen its largest decline since 2020, with wage growth slowing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of 9 credit - bond ETFs in the general pledge - style repurchase collateral list is a significant institutional breakthrough in the bond ETF pledge mechanism, which may enhance the market recognition and investment enthusiasm for credit - bond ETFs, improve the liquidity of the credit - bond market, and optimize the bond market ecosystem [3][8]. - The bond market shows a volatile trend. The issuance of credit bonds has warmed up, and the trading activity in the secondary market has increased. Bond yields show a differentiated trend, with credit spreads generally widening and rating spreads generally narrowing [6][7][35]. - The manufacturing PMI in May showed marginal improvement, but there was an imbalance in supply - demand recovery. Industrial enterprise profits continued to recover [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - On May 29, 2025, China Settlement approved 9 credit - bond ETFs to be included in the general pledge - style repurchase collateral list. As of June 3, the scale of these 9 products exceeded 80 billion yuan, nearly 2.5 times the scale at the beginning of the year. Their secondary - market trading is active [3][8]. - The inclusion of credit - bond ETFs in the collateral range can make up for their shortcomings in liquidity management and financing support, transform them from single - function tools to composite products, and is expected to attract more long - term funds and promote the expansion of the credit - bond market [9][10]. - Since the beginning of this year, bond - type ETFs have expanded against the trend. The inclusion of credit - bond ETFs in the collateral system is a positive factor for the market and may be a key variable for the next - round expansion of credit - bond ETFs [10]. Macroeconomic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, still in the contraction range but with marginal improvement. The production index returned above the boom - bust line, while the new - order index remained below it, indicating an imbalance in supply - demand recovery. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May dropped to 48.3%, the lowest since October 2022 [12][13]. - From January to April, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. In April, the profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than in March [13]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 656.6 billion yuan through open - market operations. The overnight and one - month pledged - style repurchase rates decreased by 8bp and 6bp respectively, while other term rates increased by 5 - 8bp. The 3 - month Shibor remained unchanged, and the 1 - year Shibor increased by 1bp, with the spread widening to 5bp [5][16]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds warmed up, with a scale of 286.088 billion yuan, an increase of 44.777 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation of issuance also increased by 772 million yuan [21]. - By industry, the infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale was 67.074 billion yuan, an increase of 28.569 billion yuan. The industrial bond issuance scale was 157.159 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.541 billion yuan. Most industries in industrial bonds showed net financing outflows [6][21]. - In terms of issuance costs, the average issuance rates of most bonds with different terms and ratings increased by 2 - 8bp, except for the 1 - year bonds of all grades, whose average issuance rates decreased by 12 - 15bp [21][32]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 8.655833 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 49.422 billion yuan to 173.1167 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity [35][36]. - The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 5bp to 1.67%. Credit - bond yields fluctuated, with changes ranging from 1 - 10bp [35]. - Credit spreads generally widened by 1 - 12bp, and rating spreads generally narrowed by 1 - 10bp [35].

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading below $36.30, with a recent opening at $36.72 per ounce and a current price of $36.43, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [1] - The highest price reached today was $36.81 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.29 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Recent data shows that Japan's Q1 actual GDP annualized contraction rate has narrowed to 0.2%, significantly improving from the initial value of -0.7%, which exceeded market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering measures to strengthen fiscal credibility in response to rising government debt financing costs as interest rates increase [2] - Japan's government plans to initiate low-yield bond repurchase operations to alleviate pressure from soaring long-term bond yields, aligning with previous policies to reduce long-term bond supply [2] - Japanese investors significantly reduced their holdings in German bonds by 1.48 trillion yen in April, the highest since 2014, and also recorded the largest monthly sell-off of U.S. bonds in nearly six months, amounting to 1.07 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - The international silver price recently surged, breaking through $36.69 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, with an intraday increase of 2.00% [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00-$37.50 per ounce, with potential further challenges towards the $40 mark, while short-term support is noted at $35.50-$36.00 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI and PPI data indicate a continued decline in both indices, suggesting a weak domestic demand environment and potential opportunities in the bond market [1][2][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The core CPI slightly increased by 0.1% to 0.6% [1]. - Major contributors to the CPI decline include food and energy prices, with food prices dropping by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by abundant supply and seasonal factors [1]. - Specific food items saw significant price drops: pork prices fell by 0.7%, vegetable prices by 5.9%, and egg prices by 0.9% [1]. PPI Analysis - The PPI experienced a notable decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3%, widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The month-on-month decrease was 0.4% [2]. - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak downstream demand and adverse weather conditions affecting prices in the non-ferrous and black metal industries [2]. - The top three industries with PPI increases were non-ferrous mining (+0.8%), electricity production (+0.5%), and clothing (+0.2%), while the largest declines were seen in coal mining (-3%), chemical processing (-3.1%), and oil and gas extraction (-5.6%) [2]. Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests a widening gap between upstream and downstream prices, with upstream prices struggling to transmit to lower-tier industries due to inventory and profit margin considerations [2]. - The decline in CPI and PPI is expected to lead to an increase in actual interest rates, which may enhance demand for safe-haven assets like bonds [2]. - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from a shift in monetary policy towards stabilizing prices, with potential fiscal measures to support PPI stabilization, leading to a more favorable outlook for the bond market [3].