债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 2025H2 转债强赎与不强赎的变化 ——可转债周报 20250915 不强赎承诺期时长回落稳定，结构上以 1-3 个月内的为主。从 2020 年下旬开 始发行人设置不强赎承诺期时长基本呈稳定增长的形态，直至 2024 年初达到 最高点：承诺期普遍在 200 天左右。但 2024 年下半年至今不强赎承诺期回落 至 100-150 天左右实现稳定。究其原因：一方面，早期由于信披规则不成熟， 部分公司选择反复做本次不强赎或者一个月内不强赎的公告，所以使得均值不 高，后续 3 个月或 6 个月及以上的承诺期逐渐成为市场主流。另一方面，由于 2023 年后较长时间权益市场走势偏弱，使得触发强赎的转债也偏少，公告不 强赎的转债基本为长期不考虑的发行人故在短期内将承诺期拉长。 上周爱科科技、中仑新材、南芯科技新增董事会预案、5 家新增股东大会通过、 3 家新增发审委审批通过、2 家新增证监会核准，较去年同期分别+3、+5、+2、 +1。 承诺期长短对转债估值影响不大。2025 年初以来不强赎公告次日的转股溢价 率从 2%一直抬升至 8%左右，但较 2022 年的高位仍有部分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market continued to rebound this week with an oscillating upward trend. The growth style performed well, driving up TMT-themed funds. However, many quantitative index-enhanced products still had mediocre excess returns. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by 10.63% week-on-week. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the chips in high-position sectors will loosen and differentiate, and the market will shift from a unilateral rise to a range-bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on the supplementary rise opportunities of low-position sectors. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, with the IM contract having a large discount and the IF contract having a large premium. In the upcoming week with a dense schedule of important macroeconomic events, the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile and relatively strong market. It is recommended to focus on technology frontier tracks such as robotics and AI computing power, and also seize the rotation and supplementary rise opportunities of sectors such as securities, pig cycles, and games. After a deep adjustment, the national debt market has shown rare allocation value, and investors are advised to moderately increase the allocation ratio [1][11][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Industry Index - The A-share market continued to rebound this week, with the growth style performing well and driving up TMT-themed funds. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 10.63%. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, and the average and median returns of neutral hedge funds this week were -0.06% and -0.08% respectively. This week, the electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, media, and computer sectors led the gains. The real estate and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors had a relatively large increase in the weekly trading volume ratio compared with last week, while the trading activity of the comprehensive finance and national defense and military industry sectors decreased significantly. The real estate sector rose 5.82% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 1.50%. The power equipment and new energy sector only rose 0.50% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 9.04%, and the sector may face short-term adjustment pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Market Style - This week, the growth style index rose 3.56%, and the weekly trading volume ratio slightly decreased to 58.73%. The consumption style index rose 0.88%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to 11.85%. The financial style index performed weakly in the past month, rising only 0.24% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased significantly to a new low in the past four weeks at 5.59%. The cyclical style index rose 1.87%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 20.69%. The stable style index rose 1.14%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased significantly to a new high in the past four weeks at 3.13%. Based on the CSI A-share index, the CSI 500 index led the gains this week, rising 3.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 19.03%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index only rose 1.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased to 27.65%. In the past three months, the market has shown highly structured characteristics, and the CSI 500 index has performed strongly. In an environment with abundant liquidity, funds clearly prefer opportunities with certainty, driving the collective supplementary rise of high-quality leading stocks in various industries [15]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds 3.2.1 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Thematic Tracks This Week - The report screened single-track and double-track funds based on six sectors: TMT, financial real estate, consumption, medicine, manufacturing, and cycle. Single-track funds are those with a position in a certain sector greater than 70% for multiple consecutive periods, and double-track funds are those with positions in two sectors both greater than 30% for multiple consecutive periods. The report listed the top five funds in each sector in terms of performance this week [20][21]. 3.2.2 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Strategy Classifications - The report improved the growth, BP, and profit factors to obtain growth, valuation, and quality factors, and divided the funds into different types such as deep undervaluation, high growth, high quality, quality growth, quality undervaluation, GARP, and balanced cost-effectiveness. It also listed the funds with relatively excellent performance in different types of funds this week [22]. 3.3 Index-Enhanced Funds 3.3.1 Distribution of Excess Returns of Index-Enhanced Funds This Week - This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.65%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.10%, the STAR 50 rose 5.48%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.07%. The representative indexes of the value style sector, such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, rose 0.89%, 1.54%, and 1.38% respectively, while the representative indexes of the growth style sector, such as the Small and Medium 100, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, rose 3.66%, 3.38%, 2.45%, and 2.16% respectively. The report also listed the average and median excess returns of different index-enhanced funds and the top three funds in terms of excess returns in each category this week [25][26][30]. 3.4 This Week's Fund High-Frequency Position Detection - After excluding funds with high positions in Hong Kong stocks and Beijing Stock Exchange stocks, funds with a scale of less than 200 million yuan, industry-themed funds, and quantitative funds, the results showed that active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the basic chemical (0.61%), machinery (0.24%), and power equipment and new energy (0.19%) industries this week, and significantly reduced their positions in the electronics (0.55%), computer (0.41%), and national defense and military industry (0.19%) industries. From a one-month perspective, the positions in the electronics (2.12%) and communication (0.97%) industries increased significantly, while the positions in the banking (1.11%) and automobile (1.04%) industries decreased significantly [3][43].

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model [5][27] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industry performance. It selects industries with strong upward momentum for allocation [26][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the diffusion index for each industry, which reflects the proportion of stocks in the industry with positive momentum. - Industries are ranked based on their diffusion index values, and the top-performing industries are selected for portfolio allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (0.99), Banking (0.969), Communication (0.951), Steel (0.95), Non-ferrous Metals (0.947), Retail (0.934) [27][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance over the years. While it captured trends effectively in 2021, it struggled during market reversals in 2024. It has been tracking performance for four years [26][27]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: 4.53% [25][30] - September 2025 average weekly return: 2.79%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **Model Name**: GRU Factor Model [6][33] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities [38]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU network is trained on historical minute-level volume and price data to generate industry factors. - Industries are ranked based on their GRU factor scores, and the top-ranked industries are selected for allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (4.56), Construction (3.8), Real Estate (3.6), Textile & Apparel (0.08), Comprehensive Finance (-0.07), Home Appliances (-0.16) [6][34]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short-term scenarios but struggles in long-term or extreme market conditions. It has faced challenges in capturing excess returns in 2025 due to concentrated market themes [33][38]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -7.37% [33][36] - September 2025 average weekly return: 1.70%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: -0.23% [36] Backtesting Results of Models Diffusion Index Model - **YTD Excess Return**: 4.53% [25][30] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 2.79% [30] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **YTD Excess Return**: -7.37% [33][36] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 1.70% [36] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: -0.23% [36]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | 021-63326320 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | 021-63326320 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | 风险提示 估值小幅压缩，跟涨能力减弱 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 政策变化超预期；货币政策 ...

Group 1 - Integrated circuit concept stocks showed strong performance in the morning session, with Shengbang Co. hitting a 20% limit up, Jing Sheng Machinery rising over 11%, and CATL increasing nearly 10% [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.1% at midday, while the Growth Index increased by 1.0%, and the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 Index saw a slight rise of 0.1% [1] - The ChiNext ETF (159915) recorded a trading volume of nearly 4 billion yuan at midday [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index tracks 100 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, with a high proportion of strategic emerging industries, including electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, which together account for over 55% [3] - The ChiNext 200 ETF managed by E Fund tracks the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 Index, which consists of 200 stocks with medium market capitalization and good liquidity [3]

Group 1 - The balance of margin trading has increased for 12 consecutive weeks, reaching 23,515.7 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 645.15 billion yuan [5] - The financing balance is 23,349.63 billion yuan, up by 636.57 billion yuan, while the margin balance is 166.07 billion yuan, increasing by 8.59 billion yuan [5] - The electronic, non-ferrous metals, and banking sectors saw significant net purchases from financing clients, with 14, 8, and 6 stocks respectively exceeding 1 billion yuan in net purchases [6] Group 2 - The new energy storage plan aims for a total installed capacity of over 180 gigawatts by 2027, driving direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [3] - Major stocks with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan last week include Yangguang Electric Power with 30.42 billion yuan and Hanwha U with 24.87 billion yuan [9][11] - The performance of stocks with significant net purchases showed strong profit growth, with Shenghong Technology and Xinyisheng reporting net profit increases of 366.89% and 355.68% respectively [12][13]

一是外贸新动能加快培育。在稳规模的同时，更加注重优结构，通过加强政策引导、优化支持服务，做大做强贸易新动能。 深入推进"江苏优品行全球"行动，持续加大拓展东盟、拉美、中东、非洲等新兴市场的展会、信保政策支持力度，今年省级贸易促进计划支持 展会中新兴市场展会占比达到65%，1—7月江苏省对新兴市场出口占比59.9%，较2020年提升12.6个百分点。高质量实施RCEP协定，江苏 RCEP签证出口货值连续3年居全国第一。江苏中亚中心升级为中国—中亚贸易畅通合作平台，并在今年6月第二届中国—中亚峰会期间获各国 元首共同见证揭牌。 支持高技术产品、绿色低碳产品扩大出口，加快向价值链中高端跃升，2024年机电产品出口比重达到68.7%、较2020年提升1.9个百分点，船舶 海工、手机、新能源汽车等高端化、智能化、绿色化产品出口持续快速增长。 【大河财立方 记者 陈诗昂 杨萨 文 李博 洪昊旸 摄影】9月15日，2025年"活力中国调研行"江苏主题采访活动在无锡启动。当天上午，活动举 行情况介绍会。 江苏是我国对外开放的前沿阵地，开放是江苏发展的突出优势。数据有力地印证——外贸进出口跃上5万亿元台阶，2024年达5.62 ...

市场风格轮动如潮，但有一只指数在近三轮行情中持续领跑主流宽基指数，涨幅均超70%，全市场规模 最大的创业板50ETF（159949）今日盘中再涨超2%。 9月15日，三大股指半日收涨，游戏、创业板、锂电池等方向领涨。创业板50指数作为高弹性成长标 杆，在此轮行情中再次展现其领跑实力，创业板50ETF（159949）涨2.40%，报1.448元，换手率 7.97%，成交额20.28亿元，居同类标的ETF首位。 | ન્દ્રક્ત | 名称 | 用代 | 派炊幅 IOPV | 清新率 | 换手率 | | 成交金额 ▼ 5日涨跌幅 60日涨跌幅 年初至今 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159949 | 创业板50ETF | 1.445 | 2.40% 1.4485 -0.03% | | 7.97% | 20.28亿 | 6.08% | 61.25% 50.68% | | | 159682 | BIANSOETF | 1.406 | 2.40% 1.4061 | -0.01% | 6.59% | 3.431 ...

Macro Strategy - Recent macro data includes import and export figures, CPI, PPI, and M1, M2 statistics. In August, exports showed a year-on-year growth of 4.40%, down from 7.20% in July, but cumulative growth for the first eight months remained around 5.90%, slightly above market expectations [3][4] - August CPI was -0.40%, slightly below expectations, while PPI was -2.90%, showing a narrowing decline compared to July's -3.60%. The cumulative PPI for the first eight months remained at -2.90% [3] - M1 growth in August was 6.0%, indicating a recovery in corporate deposits, while M0 and M2 growth rates remained stable compared to July [4] A-Share Market Overview - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, all six A-share indices observed upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.65% [6] - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with expectations for continued wide fluctuations and gradual increases in September [6][8] - The electronics and real estate sectors led the weekly gains, with increases of 6.15% and 5.98%, respectively, while the banking sector saw declines of -0.66% [6][7] Industry Performance - In the electronics sector, Oracle announced a new order for 300 billion computing power, indicating sustained high demand globally. The sector saw a weekly decline of 4.57% [16] - The semiconductor and component sectors reported gains of 6.52% and 11.33%, respectively, while the consumer electronics sector rose by 5.17% [16] - The valuation metrics for the electronics sector showed a PE ratio of 61.40X and a PB ratio of 4.90X, indicating a significant increase compared to previous periods [17] Investment Recommendations - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" trend supported by new policies and investment strategies. The focus should be on technology, green initiatives, and high-tech consumer services [8] - Specific investment opportunities include AI infrastructure, edge SOC, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones, with recommended companies such as Cambrian, Chipone, and Rockchip [18]

近日，徐州市鼓楼区铜沛街道举办"以商引商 共绘精彩"招商推介会。活动中，该街道大党委联系单位 ——徐州市福建商会被聘请为辖区招商顾问，与街道签订闽商产业园共建协议，在园区建设、项目招 引、人才引进等方面建立常态化合作机制。 今年以来，铜沛街道聚焦经济发展提质增效，通过"筑巢引凤、招新引优、有中生新"三向发力，统筹资 源、凝聚合力，探索实施"党建领航产业向新蝶变"项目，切实把组织优势转化为发展动能，有效破解楼 宇载体利用不足、招商碎片化、企业转型乏力等问题，为街道经济社会高质量发展注入新动能。 筑巢引凤 打造楼宇经济"新高地" 5月底，位于中心商圈庆云桥北侧高139米的凯旋门商业综合体顺利竣工，这个集办公、特色餐饮、教育 中心于一体的商业综合体，是铜沛街道高标准打造商业楼宇、发展现代服务业的新探索。目前，该商业 体已入驻麦当劳、711便利店、库迪咖啡等5家连锁品牌，苏宁臻悦酒店、上海中因（徐州）律所、江苏 汉斯律所、知许知识产权等7家知名企业，计划年底对外运营。 作为该街道重要的传统商业楼宇，九里峰景商业综合体、市政建设科研大厦等也不断转型，通过优化共 享办公空间与功能布局、提升空间利用率和办公舒适度，吸引更多 ...