8月4日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3583.31点，上涨0.66%，深证成指收报11041.56点，上涨0.46%，创业板指收报2334.32点，上涨0.5%，北证50指数上涨0.96%。A股市 场合计成交15183.6亿元，较上一交易日减少1017.2亿元。 1.A股市场全天主力资金净流出38.69亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出77.84亿元，尾盘净流入33.73亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出38.69亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 人民党理书 露生人娱史 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-8-4 | -38. 69 | -77.84 | 33. 73 | 19.56 | | 2025-8-1 | -242.36 | -92. 88 | 8. 12 | -131.11 | | 2025-7-31 | -300. 80 | -21. 65 | -94.92 | -106. 03 | | 2025-7-30 | -529.00 | -140. 23 ...

Group 1 - The company, Hainan Development (002163), stated that short-term stock price fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and industry environment [1]

天眼查商业履历信息显示，上海隧道工程股份有限公司，成立于1993年，位于上海市，是一家以从事建 筑装饰、装修和其他建筑业为主的企业。企业注册资本314409.6094万人民币，实缴资本73352.1347万人 民币。公司法定代表人为葛以衡。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月4日收盘，隧道股份（600820）报收于6.68元，上涨0.75%，换手率1.2%，成 交量37.73万手，成交金额2.51亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入3322.80万元，占比成交额13.24%。其中，超大单净流入1946.07万 元、占成交额7.75%，大单净流入1376.74万元、占成交额5.49%，中单净流出流出1234.48万元、占成交 额4.92%，小单净流出2088.32万元、占成交额8.32%。 隧道股份最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入105.49亿元、同比减少25.33%，归属净 利润3.30亿元，同比减少25.38%，扣非净利润2.82亿元，同比减少33.74%，流动比率0.904、速动比率 0.891、资产负债率75.75%。 通过天眼查大数据分析，上海隧道工程股份有限公司共对外投资了35家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Hong Kong 300 Infrastructure Index (H300 Infrastructure) has shown positive performance, with a 2.03% increase over the past month, 6.29% over the past three months, and 9.35% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Infrastructure Index reported a value of 1898.50 points [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in various sectors such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the H300 Infrastructure Index are: China Mobile (33.42%), CLP Holdings (8.6%), CK Hutchison (8.52%), China Telecom (5.35%), Hong Kong and China Gas (4.89%), Power Assets Holdings (4.79%), China Unicom (3.71%), Towngas China (3.19%), Cheung Kong Infrastructure (2.59%), and China Resources Power (2.49%) [1] - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a sector breakdown of 52.64% in telecommunications services, 41.91% in utilities, 4.19% in construction and decoration, and 1.25% in transportation [1] Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with provisions for temporary adjustments in special circumstances [2]

| 23 | | 0 12 0 0 0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行政管理 | 诚体制版 | 严重失信 经营异常 信用承诺 信用评价 司法判决 其他 | | 全部 23 | 行政许可(新标准) 19 | 行政许可(旧标准) 3 行政处罚 1 处罚决定日期 · | | | | 第1条 | | 行政处罚决定书文号 | | 京昌南口镇罚字(2023 > 030228号 下载修复申请材料 在线申请修复 | | 处罚类别 | 罚款 | | | 处罚决定日期 | | 2023-07-03 | | 处罚内容 | | 本行政机关于2023年7月3日作出如下决定;对北京市建筑工程装饰集团有限公司处以罚款人民币壹万(10000)元整 | | 罚款金额(万元) | 1.0 | | | 没收违法所得、没收非法 财物的金额(万元) | | | | 暂扣或吊销证照名称及编 름 | | | | 违法行为类型 | | 特殊时段在噪声敏感建筑物集中区域内从事产生噪声的施工作业 | | 违法事实 | 为 | 2023年7月3日7时10分,北京市建筑工程装饰集团有限公司在北京市昌平区南口镇单身宿舍特殊时段内进行施工作业课声影 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The framework identifies the dominant market style by comparing the intrinsic attributes of assets, which are tied to their industry lifecycle stages. It prioritizes assets based on the sequence of growth rate (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend yield (D) to determine the most advantageous assets and focuses on the most promising sectors[5][6][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages for equity assets: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and distressed value[5] 2. Compare assets globally to identify advantageous ones based on their intrinsic characteristics[5] 3. Use the priority sequence g > ROE > D to evaluate whether good assets exist and whether they are overvalued[5][6] 4. Focus on sectors with the most advantageous characteristics in the current market[5][6] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotations since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 26.70%[16] 2. Model Name: Asset Comparison Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model categorizes assets into primary and secondary groups. Primary assets include actual growth, expected growth, and profitability assets. Secondary assets are prioritized based on crowding levels and fundamental factors[9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Classify assets into primary (expected growth, actual growth, profitability) and secondary (quality dividend, value dividend, distressed value) categories[9] 2. Allocate market funds to primary assets when any of them show an advantage; otherwise, shift to secondary assets[9] 3. Rank secondary assets by crowding levels and fundamental factors, with the order: quality dividend > value dividend > distressed value[9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - Annualized return: 26.70% since 2009[16] - Historical performance: Positive excess returns in most years, with limited effectiveness in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016[16][19] - Excess returns by year: - 2009: 51% - 2010: 14% - 2013: 36% - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62%[19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the industry lifecycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use analysts' forecasted growth rates as the primary input[6] 2. Calculate the spread (Δgf) between top and bottom groups to assess the trend of expected growth[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown consistent expansion, with top groups driving the increase, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on performance momentum (Δg) during transition and growth phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the spread (Δg) between top and bottom groups based on actual growth rates[25] 2. Monitor the trend of Δg to identify growth opportunities in the market[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates valuation levels using the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the PB-ROE residuals for each industry[40] 2. Rank industries based on residuals to identify undervalued high-ROE sectors[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's advantage has declined, and its crowding level remains low, suggesting limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify high-quality dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE scores for each industry[43] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in specific years, such as 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP scores for each industry[47] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated strong excess returns in years like 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Factor Name: Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies industries with low price-to-book ratios (PB) and small market capitalization (SIZE), focusing on stagnation and recession phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE scores for each industry[51] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[51] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns during periods like 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Expected Growth (gf) - Δgf continues to expand, driven by top-tier groups, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Actual Growth (g) - Δg shows gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Profitability (ROE) - ROE advantage continues to decline, with low crowding levels and limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - Significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Value Dividend (DP+BP) - Strong excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - Significant excess returns during 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% last week, closing at 3559.95 points, with a high of 3636.17 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.58%, ending at 10991.32 points, with a peak of 11307.62 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.74%, closing at 2322.63 points, with a maximum of 2406.59 points [1] - Global markets also experienced declines, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.92%, and the S&P 500 down 2.36% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.47%, and the Nikkei 225 Index decreased by 1.58% [1] New Stock Issuance - Three new stocks were issued last week: Guangdong Jianke (301632.SZ), Tianfulong (603406.SH), and Xili Intelligent (920007.BI) [2] Margin Financing and Securities Lending - The total margin financing and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 19736.23 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 19600.4 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 135.83 billion yuan [3] - This represents an increase of 324.01 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3] - The Shanghai market's margin balance was 10081.88 billion yuan, up by 205.5 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 9654.34 billion yuan, increasing by 118.49 billion yuan [3] - A total of 3446 stocks had margin buying, with 132 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in buying amount, led by Xinyi Sheng (107.07 billion yuan), Zhongji Xuchuang (78.72 billion yuan), and Dongfang Caifu (77.06 billion yuan) [3][4] Fund Issuance - Eighteen new funds were launched last week, including various types such as money market funds and mixed funds [5] - Notable funds include Agricultural Bank's Tian Tian Li Money Market Fund D and Huaxia's Growth ETF Linked Y [5] Share Buybacks - Twenty-one companies announced share buybacks last week, with the highest amounts executed in the electric power equipment, defense military, and pharmaceutical industries [7][8] - The top five buyback announcements included Yiguan Technology (300763) with 67.99 million yuan, Zhongji Machinery (600372) with 59.94 million yuan, and Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812) with 42.02 million yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on industry leaders with low valuations, particularly China Chemical [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials industry is currently at the bottom of its economic cycle, with expectations for stabilization and recovery due to supportive government policies [1][2]. - Recent government meetings emphasized the need for high-quality investment and the activation of private investment, which could enhance the industry's outlook [1]. - The report highlights the recent approval of two coal-to-natural gas projects in Xinjiang, marking a significant step towards low-carbon and clean development in the coal chemical industry [1]. Market Overview - As of August 1, 2025, the newly issued local government special bonds amounted to 183.204 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 10.82% [2]. - In July, the total new local government special bonds issued reached 616.936 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 17.04% and a year-on-year increase of 119.18% [2]. - The construction index fell by 2.51% and the building materials index fell by 3.32% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025 [10]. Cement Market Analysis - National cement prices continued to decline, with a week-on-week drop of 0.3% as of August 1, 2025 [41]. - The average national cement price was 339.7 yuan per ton, with significant regional variations [46]. - The report anticipates a stabilization in cement prices in the short term, despite current demand not showing significant improvement [41]. Company Performance and Valuation - The report strongly recommends focusing on major construction blue-chip stocks such as China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China State Construction [3]. - The construction sector's overall valuation is at a historical low, with the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the construction and building materials sectors at 8.72 and 19.67, respectively [18]. - Key companies in the construction sector are experiencing varying growth rates in new orders, with China Railway Construction showing a decline in order growth in recent quarters [63].

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China granted a patent to Changjiang Jinggong (Tianjin) Construction Technology Co., Ltd. for a "Steel Structure Parapet Cap Support Structure" with the authorization announcement number CN223177020U, applied on October 2024 [1] - The patent describes a new design that enhances the strength of the cap plate by adding multiple supporting steel plates at the bottom, preventing collapse under external impacts such as hail while maintaining aesthetics and drainage [1] - The design includes protective components that block multiple self-tapping screw positions, reducing contact with rainwater to prevent rust and corrosion, which could lead to loosening of the cap plate [1] Group 2 - Changjiang Jinggong (Tianjin) Construction Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2023 and is located in Tianjin, primarily engaged in building decoration, renovation, and other construction activities [2] - The company has a registered capital of 30 million RMB and holds one patent along with 23 administrative licenses according to data analysis from Tianyancha [2]

Group 1 - The article lists companies along with their recommendation counts and corresponding industry classifications [1] - Dongfang Fortune leads with 6 recommendations in the non-bank financial sector [1] - Other notable companies include Dongpeng Beverage, Dajin Heavy Industry, Wanhua Chemical, and Huadian Co., each with 3 recommendations in their respective industries [1] Group 2 - The industries represented include food and beverage, power equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, steel, and construction decoration [1] - Companies like Huazhong Steel and China Chemical received 2 recommendations, indicating a moderate level of interest [1] - Xinwangda is also noted with 2 recommendations in the power equipment sector [1]