Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding potential adjustments to the value-added tax (VAT) rates for industries such as gaming and finance have caused significant market fluctuations, particularly affecting major companies like Tencent and NetEase. However, these rumors have been debunked by authoritative sources, confirming that no such changes are planned [1][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The rumors about VAT adjustments led to substantial declines in stock prices for companies in the gaming and finance sectors, with Tencent dropping over 6% and NetEase fluctuating between gains and losses of more than 3% [1]. - Other companies such as Century Huatong and Giant Network also experienced significant stock price drops, with Century Huatong falling over 9% during trading [1]. Group 2: Clarification of Rumors - Experts and industry insiders have confirmed that the rumors regarding VAT increases, including a potential rise in the gaming industry's tax rate from 6% to 32%, are unfounded [4]. - The current VAT law in China stipulates that the maximum VAT rate is 13%, and there are no provisions for a 32% rate, further discrediting the rumors [4]. - Recent announcements from the financial and tax authorities have clarified that there will be no changes to the VAT policies affecting the gaming and finance sectors, ensuring stability and certainty in the tax regime [4].

Group 1: A-Share Market Activity - In January 2026, the number of new A-share accounts opened reached 4.9158 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 213% and a month-on-month increase of 89% compared to January 2025 [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market and Tax Rumors - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant drop due to rumors regarding tax adjustments for high-tech enterprises, which analysts believe are exaggerated and lack solid evidence [2] - The potential tax increase on internet companies could contradict current policies aimed at promoting consumption, indicating a misalignment in market expectations [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - After a significant sell-off, gold prices rebounded by 6.5% to $1,955.90 per ounce, driven by market reactions to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair and a strengthening dollar [2] - Silver prices have entered a "meme stock" state, driven more by market sentiment and social media discussions rather than fundamental changes, with expectations of a gradual decline in the silver market [3] Group 4: Banking and Financial Products - In January 2026, the expected recovery in the scale of bank wealth management products did not materialize, with some major banks reporting a decline in scale, indicating a continuation of a shrinking trend [4] Group 5: Regulatory Changes in Commodity Trading - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin level for silver contracts from 26% to 23% and reduced the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% [4] Group 6: Industry Reports and Projections - A report by Frost & Sullivan predicts that the smart retail market in China will reach approximately 64.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% [4] Group 7: Corporate Announcements and Financial Performance - *ST Jinling's restructuring plan has been approved by the court, which may help mitigate debt risks and improve financial performance [6] - *ST Hengji has been awarded a compensation of 175 million yuan from a lawsuit, although the impact on future profits remains uncertain [7] - Baba Foods reported a net profit decline of 1.30% for 2025, despite an 11.22% increase in revenue [13] - Zhuoyue New Energy achieved a net profit growth of 14.16% for 2025, despite a revenue decline of 17.43% [14] - Zhongyuan Media reported a 30.99% increase in net profit for 2025, with a revenue decline of 5.13% [15] - High-speed Electric reported a net profit growth of 14.02% for 2025, with a revenue increase of 17.16% [16] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index rebounded over 2%, with more than 4,800 stocks rising across the market, indicating a strong recovery [18]

Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.18%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.93%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.86%, and the Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.22% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on February 3 were comprehensive (+5.63%), defense and military industry (+4.42%), machinery and equipment (+3.98%), building materials (+3.52%), and steel (+3.28%). The banking sector was the worst performer, declining by 0.85% [4][5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 3 was 25,656 billion, with a net inflow of 9.52 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][5] Key Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for January 2026 indicates that the economy is in a data vacuum period, with macro information primarily coming from price and financial data. It is expected that January's prices will recover but with limited elasticity, and while the overall financial volume is not poor, the "opening red" characteristic is not strong [6] - The market anticipates a "credit opening red," but the report suggests that this characteristic is not clearly evident. The demand side remains weak in January [6] - In terms of major assets, the equity market is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by liquidity, with a structural market characterized by low volatility dividends and technology growth. The bond market is projected to see the 10-year government bond yield fluctuate between 1.5% and 2% [6] Industry Commentary - The Chinese New Year film lineup has been preliminarily set, with attention on companies such as Bona Film Group, Hengdian Film, Happiness Blue Sea, and Damai Entertainment. The report highlights the competition for the New Year’s red envelope among major companies [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in the New Year film lineup and the ongoing AI application debate. Companies in the gaming sector, such as Perfect World, Huatuo, and Gigabit, are noted for their annual forecasts meeting or exceeding expectations, with Giant Network achieving a new high of 10 million daily active users [7][8]

增值税传闻扰动市场。 近期，一些关于调整游戏、金融等行业增值税税率的传言在部分网络平台上传播。其中，提及金 融业、互联网增值服务等或将面临增值税税率上调，游戏行业的税率有可能从6%调高至32%。 自2026年1月1日起，《中华人民共和国增值税法》和《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例》同步 施行。专家表示，财税部门近期发布了多项关于增值税政策的公告，这些政策主要是为了更好落 实增值税法、确保立法后的税制连贯性，其中对于游戏、金融等行业适用税率等政策都有明确的 规定，增强了政策确定性和稳定性。 "实际上，增值税立法后，增值税相关行业的税率都已明确，财税部门日前发布多项公告，也没有 调整游戏、金融行业增值税政策。上述传言不具备真实性。"一位业内人士表示。 这位业内人士称，网络传言中还提及游戏行业的税率要"从6%的档次调高至32%的档次"。但 实际 上，目前我国增值税法明确规定，增值税税率最高仅为13%，32%这个档次是不存在的，进一步 说明传言不具备可信度。 综合自：新华社 责编：万健祎 校对： 许欣 受传闻影响，腾讯、网易、世纪华通、三七互娱、巨人网络等盘中一度大幅跳水，其中，腾讯一 度跌超6%，网易从涨超3%一度 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released the "Automotive Data Export Security Guidelines (2026 Edition)" on February 3, aiming to enhance the convenience and safety of automotive data cross-border flow. The guidelines specify management methods and applicable conditions for automotive data export activities, detailing important data determination rules for various business scenarios such as R&D, manufacturing, and automated driving, while also proposing protection requirements to improve data security [1] - Recent rumors regarding potential increases in VAT rates for the gaming and financial sectors have been deemed unsubstantiated by experts and industry insiders. Reports suggested that the gaming industry's VAT could rise from 6% to 32%, but these claims lack credibility [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from February 3, domestic retail prices for gasoline and diesel will increase by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively. This translates to an increase of 0.16 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.17 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.17 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore a commercial reserve mechanism, including the potential inclusion of easily liquidated copper concentrate in the reserve system [2] International News - The KOSPI index in South Korea closed at 5288.08 points on February 3, marking an increase of 338.41 points, or 6.84%, the largest single-day gain in nearly six years [4] - The Tokyo stock market saw significant gains on February 3, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 3.92% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increasing by 3.10% [5] - The Australian Reserve Bank announced a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate to 3.85%, marking the first rate hike in over two years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, known for its "Talking Tom" IP, is fundamentally a mobile advertising firm that generates revenue through in-game ads from its casual mobile games. However, it has faced significant financial losses, with projected losses of 11 to 14 billion yuan for 2025, following losses exceeding 8 billion yuan in both 2023 and 2024. The core advertising business is under pressure from industry-wide downturns [1][11][30]. Financial Performance - The company reported net losses of 8.65 billion yuan in 2023 and 8.59 billion yuan in 2024. For 2025, it anticipates a further increase in losses to between 11 billion and 14 billion yuan, with a projected non-GAAP net loss of 10.7 billion to 13.7 billion yuan [11][30][31]. - The expected significant losses for 2025 are attributed to an anticipated asset impairment provision of approximately 10.2 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, primarily related to goodwill from acquisitions and long-term equity investments [30][31]. Revenue Sources - The company's revenue heavily relies on its "Talking Tom" family IP, primarily through in-app advertising. The main revenue engine is the monetization of in-game ads, which includes various ad formats such as rewarded videos, interstitial ads, and banner ads [15][32]. - In the first half of 2025, the company generated 3.35 billion yuan from advertising, accounting for 72.41% of total revenue. New business services contributed 0.52 billion yuan (11.19%), game publishing brought in 0.5 billion yuan (10.7%), and licensing generated 0.11 billion yuan (2.34%) [17][35]. R&D Investment - Despite covering over thirty cutting-edge technology concepts, the company's annual R&D expenditure is less than 200 million yuan. From 2021 to 2024, R&D spending was 119 million yuan, 183 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 193 million yuan, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, R&D spending was only 127 million yuan [7][24][28]. Technology Concepts - The company has aligned itself with various technology trends, including blockchain, metaverse, and AI applications like ChatGPT. It has made announcements regarding the integration of these technologies into its products, which have led to significant stock price fluctuations [2][10][20][27].

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding the potential increase of VAT rates for the gaming and financial industries have been deemed unsubstantiated by experts and industry insiders [1][2]. VAT Policy Clarification - The new VAT law and its implementation regulations will take effect on January 1, 2026, ensuring continuity in the tax system [1][2]. - Recent announcements from the financial and tax departments aim to better implement the VAT law and clarify applicable tax rates for industries such as gaming and finance, enhancing policy certainty and stability [1][2]. Misleading Rumors - Claims that the gaming industry's VAT rate could rise from 6% to 32% are inaccurate, as the current VAT law specifies a maximum rate of only 13%, making the 32% rate non-existent [1][2].

Core Insights - Nintendo is facing unexpected challenges in the AI-driven tech landscape, particularly with rising memory costs impacting profitability despite strong sales of the Switch 2 [1] - The company reported a quarterly operating profit of 155.21 billion yen (approximately $998.5 million), significantly below analyst expectations of 180.7 billion yen, despite an 80% increase in sales to 806.32 billion yen [1] - The dual pressures of U.S. tariffs and structural supply chain challenges are eroding Nintendo's profit margins, raising concerns about its ability to maintain profitability through 2026 [1][3] Financial Performance - Nintendo's Switch 2 sales reached 7.01 million units during the holiday season, slightly exceeding analyst forecasts of 6.5 million units, but this did not translate into proportional profit growth [3] - The company maintains its full-year revenue guidance of 2.25 trillion yen and operating profit of 370 billion yen, reaffirming its sales target of 19 million units for the Switch 2 [2] Cost Pressures - Rising costs are attributed to U.S. tariffs affecting global trade and increased logistics and operational expenses, alongside a pricing strategy in Japan that has negatively impacted profit margins [3] - The shift of semiconductor manufacturers prioritizing AI data center storage over consumer electronics is leading to a supply crunch and soaring prices for necessary components [4] Supply Chain Challenges - The "memory crisis" resulting from AI demand may not only increase costs but also risk insufficient chip availability for manufacturing consoles, potentially affecting software sales as well [4] - The built-in storage of the Switch 2 is only 256GB, which is significantly lower than competitors, and rising prices for storage expansion options may deter consumers from purchasing new games [4] Market Outlook - Nintendo is exploring strategies to maintain consumer interest, such as releasing different color variants of the Switch 2, while also aiming to improve hardware profitability [5] - Analysts suggest that despite increased operational expenses, the ecosystem remains robust, and the long-term growth of the Switch 2 is critical for attracting third-party developers and players [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry may face potential tax increases, with rumors suggesting a rise from 6% to 32%, similar to the liquor industry, which has caused fluctuations in tech stocks and concerns among investors [2][12]. Group 1: Tax Rumors and Industry Reactions - The rumor about tax increases in the gaming industry is not new, with previous speculations arising from regulatory changes in advertising costs and telecommunications [4][14]. - Analysts express skepticism about the rumors, suggesting they may be attempts to manipulate stock prices for personal gain [2][13]. - A financial analyst noted that such rumors resurface every couple of years, indicating a pattern of speculation rather than concrete policy changes [4][14]. Group 2: Current Industry Landscape - The gaming industry is currently benefiting from supportive local policies in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, recognizing its role in cultural output [5][15]. - Profit margins in the gaming sector are often overestimated; only a few blockbuster games generate significant profits, while many products struggle to break even or incur losses [6][16]. - The perception of high profitability is skewed by the visibility of successful titles, overshadowing the financial struggles of less successful games [7][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese gaming industry is at a critical growth phase, with a shift from traditional AAA game models to GaaS (Games as a Service) becoming more prevalent [9][18]. - Global competition in the gaming sector is intensifying, with European countries implementing policies to support their gaming industries, such as Germany's commitment to provide €125 million annually starting in 2026 [9][18]. - The future of the gaming industry will depend on comprehensive strength and the ability of Chinese companies to fulfill their social responsibilities amidst evolving market dynamics [9][18].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [12][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the end, closing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [15][4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding a potential increase in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) led to market turbulence, particularly affecting Tencent Holdings, which saw its stock drop over 6% intraday and close down 2.92% [14][3] - A brokerage firm clarified that the claim of aligning game tax rates with the 32% rate for liquor is misleading, as the two tax types differ significantly in nature and application [18][6] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The brokerage noted that the rumor is typical market noise, likely stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, and suggested that the actual future tax regulations would focus on reviewing tax incentives for certain companies rather than increasing statutory rates [18][6] - The firm emphasized that the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability, indicating that short-term emotional disturbances do not alter long-term fundamentals [18][6] Precious Metals Market - Following a sharp decline, the precious metals market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [20][8] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the de-dollarization process will continue, and the recent price adjustments do not signify the end of the bull market [20][8] Fund Flows - Southbound funds continued to show small-scale net buying of Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase exceeding 900 million HKD by the end of the trading day [21][9] Future Outlook - Analysts from Guoyuan International expressed concerns that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market apprehension regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, impacting risk appetite in the Hong Kong market [23][11] - CITIC Securities indicated that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have already undergone significant adjustments, and the spring market trend observed since late December 2025 is likely to continue, with large-cap stocks expected to yield relative returns [23][11]