股指早报 整体来看，外围特朗普与美联储博弈持续，目前市场对于美联储 降息预期有所降温。国内目前聚焦稳经济和反内卷政策，对月底的政 治局会议政策预期较强。大盘离去年 11 月高点 3674 高点一步之遥， 此时候资金产生分歧正常，但周四盘面市场成交量维持在 1.8 万亿， 指数上涨能看出目前是多头占主导，指数在后续颠簸会加剧，后续看 震荡上行。板块上，关注券商和科技成长。哑铃策略不变。 创元研究 股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 1 离 11 月高点一步之遥，关注资金流向 2025 年 7 月 25 日 股指期货早报 2025.7.25 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 7 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值录得 49.5，低于预 期 52.7 和前值 52.9；7 月标普全球服务业初值录得 55.2，高于预期 53 和前值 52.9。制造业跌入荣枯线下而服务业保持高扩张反映了目 前美经济结构性韧性。消息上看，特朗普视察美联储大楼翻新工程， 当众施压鲍威尔降息，而市场对此相反是降低了对美联储降息的押 注，根据美联储观察，9 月开始降 ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a significant upward trend, with the bull market continuing. The index is currently stabilizing and is anticipated to rebound after a period of consolidation [2][3] - The index reached 3600 points before retreating, but it is expected to stabilize at this level before targeting 3700 points [2] Sector Analysis - The water power sector is highlighted as the only active theme, with a strong performance in recent trading sessions. There are expectations for further upward movement, potentially reaching 7, 9, or even 10 boards [3] - Other sectors are currently passive, with limited opportunities for investment outside of the water power theme. The market is experiencing a lack of diverse themes, which may lead to volatility [2][3] Trading Strategy - Caution is advised for new positions, particularly in the water power sector, as many stocks may not perform as expected after initial gains. The market may see significant fluctuations, especially with upcoming speculative trading on Fridays [2] - The financial sector, particularly brokerage firms, is showing signs of activity and should be monitored closely for potential investment opportunities [3]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market experienced slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 3600-point mark, closing down 0.34% [2] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a market leader, initially surged but later reversed gains, with stocks like Western Securities hitting the daily limit [2] - Individual stocks remained active, with Xining Special Steel achieving a consecutive five-day limit up, reporting a cumulative increase of 46.81% over four trading days [2][3] Group 2: Company Announcements - Xining Special Steel's latest rolling P/B ratio is 2.31, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.01 [3] - Tibet Tourism also reported a static P/E ratio of 238.16 and a P/B ratio of 3.85, with a trading turnover rate of 5.87% [4] - Both companies highlighted the potential for irrational market behavior and rapid price increases, urging investors to exercise caution [4] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a generally weak performance, with the Hang Seng Index down over 1% [5] - Among the constituents, companies like WuXi Biologics and Nongfu Spring saw gains, while stocks like Kuaishou and New Oriental faced declines [6] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - The domestic futures market saw significant increases across various commodities, including lithium carbonate and glass, with lithium futures rising by 7.94% to 80,480 yuan/ton [9][11] - Glass futures also surged, with prices exceeding 1,300 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 30% compared to a month ago [10][12] - Other commodities like coking coal and soda ash also experienced substantial price hikes [13]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight adjustments today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dipping below the 3600-point mark, closing down 0.34% at 3593.38 [4][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.32% [4][5] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a market leader, initially surged but later reversed gains, with stocks like Western Securities hitting the daily limit [6] Sector Performance - The construction decoration, building materials, home appliances, and steel sectors saw declines exceeding 1% [5] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical, computer, light manufacturing, and banking sectors performed relatively well [5] Individual Stock Activity - Individual stocks remained active, with several hitting the daily limit, including Xining Special Steel and Tibet Tourism, both achieving five consecutive trading days of limit-up [9][12] - Tibet Tourism reported a static P/E ratio of 238.16 and a P/B ratio of 3.85, indicating a significant premium over the industry average [12] Futures Market - The futures market saw significant gains across various commodities, including lithium carbonate and glass, with lithium futures rising nearly 8% to over 80,000 yuan/ton, marking a 30% increase from a month ago [21][22] - Glass futures also surged, with prices exceeding 1300 yuan/ton, up from around 1000 yuan/ton a month prior [22] - Other commodities like coking coal and soda ash also experienced substantial price increases [23] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining over 1% [14] - Notable gainers included WuXi Biologics and Nongfu Spring, while stocks like Kuaishou and New Oriental faced declines [15]

Market Performance - On July 24, the Hang Seng Index rose by 129 points or 0.5%, closing at 25,667 points, marking a five-day winning streak[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.05% to 5,743 points, ending its five-day rise[1] - Market turnover reached HKD 294.8 billion, indicating active trading, with a net inflow of HKD 3.7 billion through the Stock Connect[1] Sector Highlights - The financial sector was a key support, with China Galaxy (6881 HK) and CITIC Securities (6066 HK) rising by 4.4% and 3.9% respectively[1] - China Duty Free (1880 HK) surged by 15% due to positive news regarding Hainan Free Trade Port[1] - Semiconductor stocks remained active, while major tech stocks like Baidu (9888 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) saw declines of over 3%[1] Economic Outlook - The overall upward trend in the Hong Kong market is supported by improving fundamentals and positive policy expectations, with a shift from risk aversion to fundamental recovery[2] - Anticipation of trade agreements between the EU and the US is expected to ease global supply chain concerns, potentially benefiting the Hong Kong market[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 21.7% year-on-year, although this was an improvement from the previous week's 24.9% decline[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities increased to 105.7, up from 102.2 a year ago, indicating a growing supply relative to sales[7] - Land transaction volume dropped by 62.9% year-on-year, reflecting a significant slowdown in real estate activity[8] Policy and Investment Strategy - The central government's recent urban work conference emphasized support for the real estate sector, although no new major measures were announced[9] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and finance, while also considering growth areas like AI and biotechnology[12]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that 2025 is a pivotal year for the military industry, with a recovery in performance expected in the second half due to the release of delayed orders and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][6] - The global geopolitical landscape is entering a period of turmoil, which is anticipated to drive an unprecedented increase in military spending, benefiting China's military exports [5][6] - The Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center is positioned to play a crucial role in satellite internet construction, with its capabilities expected to enhance the deployment of low Earth orbit satellite constellations [5][6] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a positive trend, with 26 listed brokerages reporting a net profit growth rate exceeding 40% for the first half of the year, driven by increased trading activity and investment banking services [7] - The new materials sector has shown a mixed performance, with the new materials index rising by 1.37%, while specific sub-sectors like synthetic biology and industrial gases have seen notable increases [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory measures in the new energy vehicle industry to curb irrational competition, which is expected to improve profitability across the supply chain [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant bullish momentum, with major indices collectively rising and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, indicating a potential new bull market cycle [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in major indices, with nearly 4400 stocks gaining, reflecting strong market sentiment [1][6]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, with sectors such as brokerage, new energy, and healthcare leading the gains [4][5]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Signals - Recent policy announcements, including the full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port and the expansion of cross-border asset management trials, have positively impacted the brokerage sector, contributing to the market's upward movement [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Politburo meeting will provide further guidance on future investment opportunities [5]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Historical analysis indicates that the A-share market is currently in a new bull market cycle, with comparisons drawn to previous bull markets in 2005 and 2015 [10][12]. - The current financing balance has exceeded 1.9 trillion yuan, suggesting that there is still room for growth compared to previous peaks [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as banking, insurance, and consumer goods, while also considering technology and healthcare for long-term growth potential [22][23]. - A balanced investment approach, including both undervalued blue-chip stocks and growth-oriented technology sectors, is recommended to navigate the current market conditions [24].

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作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今天 A股震荡反弹，沪指涨0.65%报3605.73点，三年半以来首次收于3600点上方 。 助力 A股站上3600的题材真不少， 近期在"反内卷"主旋律催化下， 很多期货品种开始了大幅反弹，情绪面蔓延到 了股票市场。 今天又轮到了碳酸锂。 国内碳酸锂期货主力合约今天涨势强劲，盘中一度触及涨停（ 8%），关联个股如赣锋锂 业、天齐锂业相继涨停，港股涨幅也一度超过15%。 发生了什么？ 涨停！ 01 板块方面，钢铁、地产、券商、多元金融等板块涨幅居前，锂矿、小金属、水利水电等概念股跟 ，盘面热点杂乱， 海南自贸区、免税店、雅下水电概念涨幅居前。 | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 林木 | 机场 | 基本金属 | 生物科技 | 券商 | 餐饮旅游 | 3.07% | 2.59% | 2.39% | 4.18% | 3.26% | 2.50% | ...

气势如虹，马上好像就要反包了。A股7月还有调整吗？和讯投顾张平分析，今天A股启动是为什么带动 的？一方面我们都知道的基建，但是基建带动了什么？落后的去产能对不对？今天从锂资源的锂矿到煤 矿，到你们几乎能看到的所有矿全都在动，而且今天的煤炭期货价格也是一路长虹，这可不是说着玩 的，各位这是期货，其现随其动，也就是说现货也在涨，这就是为什么你看到这么多资源类上涨的原 因，我看他们有人归因为这个固态电池什么的，固态电池也带不起来这个煤炭嘛对吧？你不可能说电动 车烧煤对吗？它不是，它是所有的资源类全体。所以老鹰之前和大家讲到的资源类现在已经开始动起来 了。 第二个赛欧开始是不是又出主升了？以前大家对创新药没什么兴趣，你看这波创新药又来了，而且有一 些创新药已经新高了，值得留意对吗？第三个，更加值得我们留意的。有人说踏空了怎么办？新热点， 你看是不是落后淘汰去产能，啊这个东西你别小看，往往期货来移动就容易带动现货动现货动，实际上 公司不就内在价值不就提升了吗？对吧？原来3000块钱一吨，假如说对吗？你这6000块钱一吨了，你自 然而然你的你公司股价它就不可能是原来那个价格了。这就是为什么很多股票现在在这个阶段能上涨的 ...