Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The article highlights the increasing urgency for strategic security investments and the balancing act between short-term shareholder interests and long-term infrastructure investments in the US and Europe [2] - It suggests that China's capital market has already completed the transition from virtual to real pricing and is currently in the process of validating and pricing for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the A-share market in the next 1-2 months is optimistic, with historical data indicating a strong seasonal effect around February and the Spring Festival [3] - The article notes that the number of companies with low expectations or losses has reached a new high, suggesting that negative earnings reports are being digested, which may lead to a lighter market environment starting in February [3] - It encourages investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the upcoming bullish cycle around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The article advocates for holding stocks during the holiday season, citing a positive outlook for the Chinese market driven by a shift towards domestic demand and government support for capital market stability [4] - It mentions a resurgence in stock buybacks among A-share companies, indicating a strengthening market sentiment [4] - The recommendation includes maintaining positions in sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and emerging technologies like internet and robotics [5] Group 4 - The article discusses the limited impact of external shocks on the Chinese market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are more about emotional digestion rather than fundamental changes [6] - It highlights the potential for a recovery in the market post-Spring Festival, driven by increased risk appetite and upcoming catalysts in various sectors [6] - The focus is on sectors like AI computing, chemicals, and power equipment, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market environment [10] Group 5 - The article indicates that the Hang Seng Technology Index has potential for recovery, especially if the liquidity shock subsides and new catalysts emerge in the AI sector [7] - It suggests that the market may experience a rotation towards sectors benefiting from major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as construction materials and energy [7] - The overall sentiment is that the market will likely see a stronger performance post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels [7] Group 6 - The article emphasizes the revaluation of Chinese assets, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and the return of capital from export enterprises [8] - It suggests that the focus should be on physical assets and sectors with global competitive advantages, such as energy and equipment manufacturing [8] - The recommendation includes sectors like oil, copper, and lithium, which are expected to benefit from a stabilization in demand and low inventory levels [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the A-share market, with various sectors showing different trends, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [8][9][10] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, with manufacturing PMI indicating expansion in high-tech sectors, suggesting a positive outlook for growth [11][12] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on balanced allocations, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes [8][9][10] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,065.58, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,906.73, down 0.33% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.75 and 51.98, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] Industry Analysis - The power and utilities sector showed strong performance, with the China Power and Utilities Index rising 2.76% in January, outperforming the broader market [15] - The electricity supply and demand situation remains robust, with total electricity consumption exceeding 10 trillion kWh in 2025, driven by growth in the service sector [15][16] - The chemical industry saw a price recovery in January, with the basic chemical index rising 10.13%, suggesting potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from rising raw material prices [18][20] Technology Sector Insights - The AI and technology sectors are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with significant advancements anticipated in AI models and applications, particularly with the upcoming release of DeepSeek V4 [21][22][23] - The semiconductor market is experiencing growth, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for technology components [24][25] Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see significant growth, with over 300 GW of new installations expected in 2025, despite challenges in export demand [27][28] - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to accelerate the exit of high-cost production capacities, impacting market dynamics [27][28] Communication Industry - The communication sector is experiencing strong growth, with the industry index rising 12.82% in December, driven by increased demand for 5G and related technologies [33][34] - Supply chain constraints in key materials for optical components are anticipated to impact market growth until late 2026, highlighting the need for strategic investments in this area [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings in January 2026, reaching 4.9158 million, a year-on-year increase of 213% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89%. This trend is expected to benefit brokerage firms as funds flow from traditional banks to capital markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerage firms. It also notes the expansion of international business opportunities due to the ongoing internationalization of the RMB [4]. - The report discusses specific stock movements, including Huatai Securities' plan to issue HKD 10 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, and the restructuring of Zhongtai Securities to enhance operational efficiency [4][13]. - In the insurance sector, the report notes that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting confidence in the sector's value re-evaluation. The report anticipates steady growth in new business value (NBV) and an increase in equity allocation for China Life [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.33% during the week, while the non-bank index fell by 0.60%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [7]. Non-Bank Financial News and Key Stock Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [9]. - Specific stock announcements include Huatai Securities' bond issuance and Ping An's increased holdings in China Life, showcasing strategic moves within the sector [11][13]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on average daily trading volume, which reached CNY 24,068.65 billion, and highlights the significant increase in new investors, with 995,900 new accounts opened in August 2023 [23][24].

报告导读： 海外金融紧缩预期边际改善，国内政策重心正转向内需主导。恐慌性抛售后， 中国股市已至关键位置，建议持股过节。新兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 投 资 要 点 ▶大势研判：持股过节。 近期中国股市波动较大，并出现单日恐慌式抛售，市场悲观情绪弥漫。究其原因：沃什"降息+缩表"倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科 技龙头巨额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，建议持股过节：1）全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息 立场更鸽派和确定。与此同时，贝森特澄清强美元政策并非指干预汇率，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善。2）中国政府的政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任 务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报。3）证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，A股上市公司亦掀起回购热潮。我们认为，中国股市将逐步 企稳与展开春季行情，眼下是增持良机。 ▶ 重要的边际：内需政策提速，价值迎来春天。 过去五年，中国内需增长经历了明显下行，比如房地 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The urgency for strategic security investments and new infrastructure in the US reflects a growing competition, balancing short-term shareholder interests with long-term strategic value [2] - China's capital market has already completed the pricing adjustment from virtual to real, currently undergoing a verification and pricing process for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - A potential "favorable timing and conditions" for a new upward cycle in the A-share market is anticipated in the coming months, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] - Historical data shows that February, especially around the Spring Festival, is a period of strong market activity, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform [3] - The recent market pullback is seen as an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the upcoming upward cycle, especially around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The global market is quickly pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Chinese government is shifting its focus towards domestic demand, which is expected to boost economic prospects [5] - The recent emphasis from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on stabilizing the capital market is expected to support a gradual recovery in the A-share market [5] - Recommendations include focusing on emerging technologies and sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and traditional manufacturing [5] Group 4 - The recent global asset adjustment is more about digesting emotions rather than fundamental changes, with a favorable environment for market recovery expected post-Spring Festival [6] - Key sectors to focus on include technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, with a particular emphasis on AI hardware and high-end manufacturing [6] - The upcoming period is expected to see increased industry catalysts and a rise in risk appetite, creating opportunities for thematic investments [6] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having value for investment, with expectations of a rebound once the liquidity shock subsides [7] - The market is expected to experience a stronger performance post-Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The rotation of investment focus is anticipated to accelerate in February, particularly towards sectors like oil, food and beverage, and construction materials [7] Group 6 - The global risk-off mode has led to a reevaluation of assets, with a focus on physical assets and a recovery in manufacturing trends [8] - Recommendations include investing in commodities like oil, copper, and lithium, as well as sectors with confirmed bottoming out in the Chinese manufacturing industry [8] - The return of capital and easing of pressure from quantitative tightening are expected to support a recovery in consumer sectors [8] Group 7 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily driven by internal factors, with external shocks having limited impact on the fundamental industry landscape [9][10] - The market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and a continuation of the spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival [10] - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, chemical industries, and power equipment, with potential catalysts from local policy signals [10] Group 8 - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a shift towards value and consumer sectors as high-valuation tech stocks face selling pressure [12] - Defensive sectors like banking and food and beverage are likely to attract investment, while growth sectors may regain focus post-Spring Festival [12] - The upcoming policy window and recovery in risk appetite are expected to shift market attention back to growth sectors with clear performance catalysts [12]

非银金融 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《1 月基金新发显著增长，头部券商业 绩预告符合预期 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.1 《偏股基金新发同比明显增长，公募 强化基准约束—行业周报》-2026.1.25 《逆周期调节呵护"慢牛"，券商和 保险业务开门红 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.1.18 1 月新开户高增超预期，银保渠道实现开门红 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | 张恩琦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 证书编号：S0790125080012 | |  周观点：1 | 月新开户高增超预期，银保渠道实现开门红 | | 保险在个险和银保两端均实现开 ...

证券板块 券商经营环境进一步改善。交易活跃背景下业绩有望延续高增，上交所数据显示，2026 年 1 月 A 股新开户 491.58 万 户，环比增长 89%，同比 2025 年 1 月的 157.0 万户增长 213%；1 月日均股基成交额同比增长 157%至 3.6 万亿元，日 均两融余额同比增长 47%至 2.7 万亿元，IPO 向常态化恢复。预计交易层面 ETF 净流出将缓解、再融资影响可控，券 商的压制因素逐步解除，当前估值性价比极高。当前板块 PB（LF）估值 1.36 倍，处于十年 34%分位数。 投资建议：建议关注三条主线：（1）强烈推荐估值及业绩错配程度较大的优质券商，重点关注国泰海通；建议关注 AH 溢价率较高、有收并购主题的券商；建议关注短期受益于科技股上市的券商。（2）四川双马：科技赛道占优，创投业 务有望受益，布局基因治疗赛道新标的，深化生物医药产业链。公司管理基金的已投项目：屹唐股份、西安奕材、沐 曦股份（科创板已上市）、奕斯伟计算以及群核科技（港交所 IPO 申报）、邦德激光、丽豪半导体等上市进程加快；公 司参投基金已投：傅利叶已完成多轮融资，奇瑞汽车港交所已上市，慧算账向港交所递 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings, with 4.9158 million new accounts in January 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 213% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 89% [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift of funds from traditional banks to capital markets and non-bank financial institutions, driven by the expiration of 70 trillion yuan in one-year or longer deposits and a decline in net interest margins [4]. - The report discusses the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerages [4]. - The report notes that the international business landscape for brokerages is expanding due to the deepening process of RMB internationalization and the demand for cross-border wealth management and investment banking services [4]. - The report mentions that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting a strong confidence in the insurance sector [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,643.60 with a decline of 1.33%, while the non-bank index closed at 2,030.92 with a decline of 0.60% [8]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [8]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [10]. - Ping An Group's recent acquisitions of shares in China Life (H) are detailed, showcasing a strategic investment approach [12]. - Huatai Securities plans to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with strong comprehensive capabilities, recommending stocks such as Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [4]. - For insurance, the report recommends China Life (H), New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighting the systemic value reassessment opportunities in the insurance sector [4].

行业研究丨深度报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时选 股？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历史上 A 股牛市中保险及券商表现如何？不同类型牛市下表现何异？节奏及持续性如何？站 在当前如何展望？我们梳理了 2012 年以来几次 A 股上涨周期中保险及券商指数涨跌及行业相 对表现，并进一步梳理一级行业月度涨跌轮动以探究行情节奏，最后结合当前时点进行分析展 望。我们认为当前估值上非银进入配置性价比区间，择时应合理配合政策及监管节奏增配，配 置上推荐高弹性保险与金融 IT。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时 2] 选股？ [Table_Summary2] 历史 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of recent market movements and regulatory news on investment strategies, particularly focusing on the technology and AI sectors [1] Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant rise, driven by two main factors: the Federal Reserve's reassuring policy signals and a strong rebound in the AI sector, alleviating previous concerns about the AI narrative [1] - The Nasdaq China Financial Index surged by 3.71%, while the A50 Index increased by over 1%, indicating a positive outlook for the A-share market on the following Monday, especially in the AI sector [1] Regulatory Environment - Eight government departments in China have clarified that virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities, leading to a comprehensive ban within the country. This will negatively impact sectors related to blockchain, virtual currencies, and Web3 [1] - The crackdown on these speculative sectors is expected to redirect funds towards regulated institutions such as banks, brokerages, and public funds, enhancing the attractiveness of formal channels [1] Gold Market - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months, with foreign exchange reserves reaching a nearly 10-year high, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] Investment Strategy - It is suggested that if the A-share market rises significantly before the Spring Festival, investors should consider reducing positions to lock in profits, given the extended holiday period and potential risks [1] - The recommendation is to adopt a strategy of high selling and low buying within a fluctuating market, especially in light of geopolitical tensions, such as the return of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East [1]