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韩国:2025年总统选举前的阿尔法策略思路及政策影响
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-29 06:00
Political Landscape - The emergency presidential election in South Korea is scheduled for June 3, 2025, following political uncertainty due to the declaration of martial law and the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol[6]. - Recent polls indicate that opposition candidates are leading, reflecting a favorable trend for the opposition party amid high public support for changing the current government[7][8]. Economic Policy Outlook - Key economic policy platforms focus on improving corporate governance and addressing the "Korea discount," with retail investors representing nearly 30% of the population[19]. - Major candidates propose four main categories of capital market policies: corporate governance reform, tax incentives, enhanced accessibility for capital markets, and establishing a fair market order[20]. Market Projections - The KOSPI 12-month target has been raised to 2900, indicating a 9% upside potential, driven by the elimination of political risks and advancements in capital market reforms[3][64]. - The potential reclassification of South Korea's MSCI status could attract approximately $20-30 billion in foreign investment, improving market accessibility[48][51]. Corporate Governance Reforms - Both leading candidates emphasize the importance of corporate governance reforms, which could play a crucial role in narrowing the Korea discount[22][23]. - Despite previous efforts, the valuation of the Korean stock market remains significantly discounted compared to regional and global peers, with a price-to-book ratio discount of 48% compared to developed markets[28]. Tax Incentives - Proposed reforms include changes to dividend and inheritance tax policies to encourage higher dividend payouts, which previously saw significant increases when similar policies were implemented in 2014[37][40]. - The inheritance tax reform aims to address undervaluation issues of listed company stocks, particularly for those with a price-to-book ratio below 0.8[38]. Market Order and Transparency - Candidates commit to strengthening penalties for illegal trading practices, such as insider trading, to enhance protection for minority shareholders and improve market transparency[52][53]. - The overall number of unfair trading cases has decreased, but there has been a rise in cases related to interest disclosures in 2024[53]. Sector-Specific Policies - Both candidates support strategic industries such as AI, renewable energy, and defense, with commitments to establish investment funds and incentives for domestic production[59][60]. - The focus on enhancing the competitiveness of the shipbuilding industry and advancing defense technology is also highlighted in their platforms[60].
大外交|马克龙欲为东南亚提供“第三条道路”,但“可靠伙伴”人设难掩困局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 08:28
据央视新闻报道,当地时间5月25日,法国总统马克龙抵达越南首都河内开始为期三天的国事访问。这 是法国总统自1973年两国建交以来第五次访问越南,也是马克龙就任总统以来首次访问越南。 当地时间 2025年5月26日,法国总统马克龙与越南国会主席陈青敏在河内国会大厦会晤。视觉中国 图 越南是马克龙此次东南亚之行的首站。据法新社报道,5月25日至5月31日,马克龙将先后对越南、印度 尼西亚和新加坡进行访问,并出席在新加坡举行的香格里拉对话会。法国《西南报》报道,马克龙此行 旨在将法国塑造为东盟国家"可靠、尊重主权与独立"的合作伙伴,为该地区国家提供有别于中美的"第 三条道路"。 上海国际问题研究院东南亚研究中心主任周士新在接受智通财经(www.thepaper.cn)采访时表示,在当 前国际形势发生如此剧烈变动的情况下,马克龙此访一方面为加强法国和欧洲与东南亚国家的经贸关 系,在全球经济形势不确定的情况下,为法国经济发展提供信心。同时,马克龙也希望能够加强和东南 亚国家的安全合作,增强法国在东南亚的"存在度"和"影响力"。 复旦大学中欧关系研究中心主任简军波告诉智通财经(www.thepaper.cn),越南、印尼 ...
法国总统马克龙:法国正与越南就加强合作在国防、卫星和铁路等领域展开积极接洽。
news flash· 2025-05-26 05:04
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that France is actively engaging with Vietnam to strengthen cooperation in various sectors, including defense, satellites, and railways [1] Group 2 - The discussions between France and Vietnam indicate a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing bilateral relations in key technological and infrastructural areas [1] - The focus on defense suggests a potential increase in military collaboration, which may have implications for regional security dynamics [1] - The emphasis on satellite and railway cooperation highlights France's interest in expanding its influence in Vietnam's technological and transportation sectors [1]
下周,特朗普朝天一枪,动荡又要重演?
凤凰网财经· 2025-05-25 13:30
这个周末,特朗普,又有大动作了! 特朗普签署了四项行政命令,旨在扩大核能生产,推动核能行业的发展,相关概念股随即大幅上涨。 与此同时,特朗普强调不会削减万亿美元国防预算,展现出对军事开支的强硬立场。 此外,他提议自2025年6月1日起对欧盟实施50%关税,这一表态导致市场避险情绪升温,美股、欧股双 双下跌。 这些行动不仅可能重塑美国内外政策格局,还将对全球市场产生深远影响。 01 扩大核能 据报道,特朗普周五签署了四项行政命令,以扩大核能生产。 当天,在椭圆形办公室的签署仪式上,特朗普称核能是一个"热门行业",并补充说,"现在是发展核能 的时候了,我们将把它做得非常大。" 特朗普签署的行政命令旨在改革美国能源部的核能研究,为能源部在联邦拥有的土地上建造核反应堆扫 清道路,彻底改革核管理委员会,并扩大美国的铀矿开采和浓缩。 行政令还呼吁美国能源部和国防部门评估重启已关闭的核电站的可行性,并探索在联邦土地和军事基地 选址反应堆。美国核监管委员会发言人Scott Burnell表示,该机构正在评估这些行政命令,并将遵守白 宫的指示。 特朗普推动核能的举措可能促进这一无排放能源的发展,核能被视为煤炭和天然气发电的气候 ...
报道:欧盟和英国已达成一项初步协议,以加强双方关系
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-19 08:43
Core Points - The UK and EU have reached a breakthrough agreement that significantly reduces trade barriers, extends fishing rights until 2038, and revives security and defense cooperation [1][2] - The agreement is expected to improve the UK's economic growth outlook, albeit at the cost of some sovereignty, as the UK will have to accept EU rules and oversight from its courts [1][3] Trade and Fisheries - The most notable aspect of the agreement is the mutual fishing rights extension to 2038, surpassing the UK's initial proposal of a four-year extension [3] - This major concession will unlock future agreements on food and agricultural standards, eliminate most border checks with the EU, and promote energy cooperation [3] Economic Context - The core motivation behind the agreement is the UK's urgent need to overcome economic stagnation [3][5] - The UK will accept many EU-related rules to achieve a "common health and plant quarantine area" and energy agreements, with the European Court serving as the final arbiter of EU law [3][5] Carbon Market Connection - A strategic initiative includes the commitment to connect carbon markets, avoiding border carbon adjustment taxes on products like steel and cement [4] - This news has led to market fluctuations, with UK carbon futures rising by 8.4% to £52.40 per ton, and EU carbon contracts increasing by 0.6% to €71.41 per ton [4] Youth and Cultural Exchange - The agreement extends beyond trade, with the UK committing to rejoin the EU's Erasmus+ student exchange program and establishing a time-limited youth visa scheme [5] - The EU will also lift restrictions, allowing UK visitors to use electronic gates within the EU and simplifying travel for artists [5] Defense and Security Cooperation - As part of the defense and security agreement, a platform will be established for consultation and cooperation across various fields, including information sharing and maritime and space security [5] - The EU has committed to exploring pathways for the UK to access the EU's joint procurement defense fund, which is crucial for the UK [5]
加沙短暂停火助力以色列一季度经济增长
news flash· 2025-05-18 14:23
金十数据5月18日讯,得益于加沙地带的临时停火,以色列经济在第一季度有所回升。以色列中央统计 局周日报告称,GDP经季节性调整后按年率计算增长了3.4%,略低于市场预期的3.5%的预期。以色列 央行预计今年的经济增长率为3.5%。如果目前正在进行的停火谈判未能取得成功,以色列将征召更多 的后备部队,情况可能会变得复杂。本季度商业部门GDP增长了4.4%,可能得益于停火期间预备役人 员返岗带来的劳动力补充。战争期间主要增长引擎政府消费下降0.2%,国防开支骤降15.6%。建筑业回 暖带动固定投资激增8.7%,其中建筑活动扩张44.8%,但统计局强调该水平仍与2021年四季度低位相 当。 加沙短暂停火助力以色列一季度经济增长 ...
卡塔尔与波音签署创纪录大单
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-05-16 03:32
Group 1 - The U.S. and Qatar signed multiple cooperation agreements in economic and defense sectors, with a total economic cooperation commitment of at least $1.2 trillion, covering aviation, defense, energy, and technology [1] - Boeing received the largest wide-body aircraft order in its history, valued at $96 billion, for up to 210 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft from Qatar Airways, supporting over 1 million U.S. jobs during the production cycle [1] - Following the announcement, Boeing's stock price rose by 3.1%, reaching its highest level in 15 months, with a nearly 50% rebound since hitting a low of $128.88 in early April [1] Group 2 - In the infrastructure sector, Parsons secured contracts for 30 projects in Qatar, totaling $97 billion, while McDermott is advancing an $8.5 billion energy infrastructure project [1] - In defense, Raytheon received a $1 billion order to provide counter-drone systems to Qatar, which will be the first overseas user of this system, and General Atomics reached an agreement for Qatar to purchase $2 billion worth of MQ-9B "Reaper" drones [1] - Qatar's royal family proposed to gift a $400 million Boeing 747-8 aircraft to the U.S. as a presidential plane, which has raised concerns regarding potential "quid pro quo" and security issues [2]
卡塔尔与美国签署多项合作文件
news flash· 2025-05-14 17:23
卡塔尔埃米尔宫14日发表声明说,卡塔尔与美国当天在卡首都多哈签署两国政府合作联合声明,以及涉 及民航和国防等领域的双边协议和合作备忘录。声明说,卡塔尔埃米尔(国家元首)塔米姆当天会见了到 访的美国总统特朗普,双方代表在埃米尔宫签署了一项协议和若干谅解备忘录,其中包括卡塔尔从美国 波音公司采购飞机的协议,以及有关两国防务合作的意向声明。在签署仪式之前,塔米姆与特朗普进行 了正式会谈,双方讨论了一系列双边和地区议题,特别是投资、能源以及军事和安全合作。(新华社供 稿) ...
白宫:沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元
news flash· 2025-05-14 03:55
当地时间5月13日,沙特阿拉伯与美国在沙特首都利雅得签署两国政府战略经济伙伴关系文件以及涉及 国防和能源等多个领域的双边协议和合作备忘录。美国白宫宣布,沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元。 ...
美沙领导人会谈,投资压过地缘政治
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-13 22:37
【环球时报驻埃及特派记者 黄培昭 环球时报特约记者 王逸】当地时间13日,美国总统特朗普抵达沙特首都利雅得,沙特王储亲自接机,这被美 联社视为"给予美国总统的罕见荣誉"。此后,特朗普还将访问阿联酋和卡塔尔。法新社13日称,这三个富裕的中东国家都将为特朗普举行盛大的 欢迎仪式,并签署国防、能源和人工智能等领域的大单。 据卡塔尔半岛电视台13日报道,特朗普抵达利雅得哈立德国王国际机场时,与前来迎接的沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼一起走过欢迎地毯,还在机 场会客室喝了传统的阿拉伯咖啡。报道称,美国领导人似乎非常享受这场盛大的仪式。 《华尔街日报》13日报道称,在此次出访前,美国政府一直试图促成加沙和平协议以及与伊朗达成新的核协议,并阻止也门胡塞武装对红海航线 的袭击,所有这些都是对海湾国家至关重要的问题。 尽管如此,白宫依然高调宣布,特朗普此行是"历史性重返中东"。半岛电视台13日报道称,特朗普第一任期的首次出访就是从沙特开始的。这次 他再次打破了美国新任总统国事访问首站通常为英国、加拿大或墨西哥的传统。法新社13日称,特朗普决定再次绕过西方传统盟友,访问石油资 源丰富的海湾国家,凸显这些国家在地缘政治中的关键作用。 ...