Group 1 - The EU is working to reach a trade agreement with the US by the end of the month, while President Trump plans to announce further tariffs on unspecified countries [1][2] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to implement tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, escalating trade tensions and impacting global economic outlook [1] - The US has seen its effective tariff rate rise to 17.6%, the highest level in nearly 90 years, following Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on imports from 14 countries [3] Group 2 - The US Treasury has reported approximately $100 billion in tariff revenue so far, with an expectation of an additional $300 billion by the end of the year [6] - Historically, the US has generated around $8 billion annually from tariffs, but recent measures have significantly increased this revenue [6] - Despite promises of reaching 90 agreements within 90 days, only two agreements have been made with the UK and Vietnam, with negotiations with India nearing completion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates that global trade policy activities have increased, with rising tensions among major trading partners contributing to a more volatile and unpredictable trade environment [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 2: Trade Barriers and Policy Recommendations - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2]. - The report highlights that retaliatory measures, such as those taken by Canada and the EU against U.S. trade policies, are likely to exacerbate trade tensions and lead to a decline in global trade volume [2]. Group 3: Trade Growth Projections - Earlier projections for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for merchandise trade growth now revised downward [3]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer indicates a slight increase in the global goods trade index, but a decline in new export orders suggests a slowdown in trade growth later this year [4]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The report notes an increase in global trade imbalances, particularly with the U.S. experiencing a widening trade deficit over the past four quarters [5]. - The potential for further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, increasing the risk of trade fragmentation [5].

Group 1 - The latest delay in the implementation of US tariffs provides an opportunity for further negotiations, with 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, facing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% [1] - Vietnam recently reached a trade agreement with the US, avoiding an initially proposed 46% tariff, with many goods now subject to a 20% tariff, while transshipped goods will incur a 40% tariff [1] - Japan and South Korea are the largest exporters to the US among the countries receiving tariff notifications, with export totals of $148 billion and $131.5 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets are significantly influenced by the dollar in their export or import pricing, with most investment inflows in these markets being dollar-based [2] - If the US imposes higher tariffs on Asian countries, the Asia-Pacific region appears more capable of withstanding the resulting economic pressure [2] - A weaker dollar should provide greater flexibility for Asian central banks to ease policies to support their economies without excessive concern over currency depreciation [2]

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from "expansion" to "downward adjustment" due to increasing trade policy activities and geopolitical tensions among major trading partners [1][3] - The WTO report indicates that global trade uncertainty is rising, influenced by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased volatility and unpredictability in the global trade environment [1][2] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that while global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, it will face significant headwinds in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and global geopolitical tensions [1][4] Group 2 - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2][5] - The WTO's previous forecast in April predicted a 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, with a 2.5% growth expected in 2026, but this outlook has been revised downward due to U.S. tariff policies [2][3] - The global goods trade barometer showed a rise in the index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates a rise in global trade policy activities, with escalating tensions among major trading partners contributing to increased trade uncertainty [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Measures - Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. has implemented various bilateral and global trade measures, prompting some economies to introduce trade facilitation measures while others have announced retaliatory measures, primarily involving tariff increases [3]. - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [3]. Group 3: Trade Volume Predictions - The WTO's earlier predictions for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for a 0.2% decline in goods trade and a slower growth outlook for services trade [4]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer shows a rise in the global goods trade index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [6]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The UNCTAD report highlights a worsening trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters, raising concerns about the fragmentation risks associated with recent U.S. tariff measures [7]. - The report warns that if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally, a contraction in trade could occur [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is set to send notifications regarding tariffs to approximately 100 countries, threatening higher rates if no action is taken by August 1 [1][2] - The unilateral actions by the U.S. are expected to impact both domestic financial markets and the global trade system, exacerbating international trade tensions [1][3] - Countries such as Japan and South Korea are actively seeking negotiations to avoid escalation into a full-blown trade war, indicating a significant diplomatic response to U.S. tariff threats [2][3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies are undermining consumer and investor confidence in the U.S. economy, potentially leading to increased inflation and economic instability [3][4] - The additional costs from tariffs are likely to impact Southeast Asian economies, particularly affecting U.S. companies operating in the region, especially in the apparel and footwear sectors [4][5] - The current trade dynamics are shifting, with countries increasingly looking towards China and multilateral cooperation as the U.S. becomes a less reliable partner [5][6]

作者 | 第一财经 钱小岩 封图 | 越南北宁省工厂内景 （新华社资料图） 特朗普政府向14个贸易伙伴发送了关税信函，其中包括多个东南亚国家。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产 品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 这14国多为亚洲国家，除了日韩外，有6个为东南亚国家，既有东南亚最大经济体印度尼西亚，也有 对美出口规模较小的老挝和缅甸。其实在特朗普政府在4月2日公布的税率名单中，东南亚就已是"重 灾区"。 2025.07. 09 本文字数：1490，阅读时长大约2分钟 上海国际问题研究院东南亚研究中心主任周士新向第一财经记者表示，美国依然利用其经济实力和优 势来胁迫东南亚国家。他进一步分析道，东南亚国家虽然重视美国市场，但现状也让各国进一步认识 到美国市场的大门越关越紧。为了维持发展，预计东南亚国家将更倾向于与已签署自由贸易协定的国 家深化贸易合作。 高位税率 特朗普7日在自己创立的"真实社交"网站上陆续发布了他写给14国领导人的信函。根据这些信的内 容，在东南亚国家中，马来西亚将被征收25%的关税，印尼为32%，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36%的 关税，老挝 ...

新华社吉隆坡7月9日电（记者王嘉伟 毛鹏飞）马来西亚《星洲日报》网站日前刊文指出，美国总 统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起对来自日本、韩国、马来西亚等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不 等的关税，此举对全球贸易秩序构成制度性冲击。文章摘要如下： 文章认为，美政府掌控谈判节奏，以期让对方来不及准备从而被迫应对，严重打击市场信心。此 外，美方单边主义举措不乏削弱世贸组织、东盟、亚太经合组织等多边主义平台的意图。 文章最后强调，美方政策意图已十分明确：其贸易外交并非为建立更公平的经济秩序，而是为建立 惩罚与屈服的框架。在这一逻辑下，关税不再是经济工具，而是外交武器；期限不再是商定节点，而是 施压的节奏；外交也不再是谈判，而是服从性测试。 马来西亚希望通过外交与经济倡议推动区域经济一体化与对外合作。然而，美政府最新关税冲击不 仅针对单一国家，也考验整个东盟机制的凝聚力。 美方关税政策步步紧逼，已然将国际经贸演变为其政治勒索工具，意在通过经济手段迫使其他国家 屈从其战略节奏。作为2025年东盟轮值主席国，马来西亚面临维护区域团结等关键考验，需引导东盟协 同应对挑战。 新的"惩罚性"关税将对马来西亚构成突如其来的经济 ...

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a report assessing global trade developments from mid-October 2024 to mid-May 2025, highlighting increased trade policy activities and escalating tensions among major trading partners [1] - The report predicts a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, with a subsequent growth of 2.5% expected in 2026, indicating a slowdown in trade activities [1] Trade Measures - During the reporting period, 644 trade measures related to goods were recorded, indicating a rise in the introduction of new trade measures, with trade remedy measures accounting for 46% of these [2] - Other recorded measures include 207 trade facilitation measures and 141 additional trade measures, with the latter covering an estimated trade value of $2.7327 trillion, the highest recorded since the WTO's trade monitoring began in 2009 [2] - By 2024, the trade value covered by these measures is estimated at $2.959 trillion, representing 12.5% of global imports, while affected export trade is valued at $81.17 billion, or 3.5% of global exports [2] - By the end of May 2025, the trade value covered is projected to reach approximately $4.6041 trillion, accounting for 19.4% of global imports, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Economic Support Measures - Since the 2008 financial crisis, general economic support measures have been a significant part of trade monitoring, but the number of reported measures has decreased from 224 in 2024 to 100 in 2025, indicating a shift towards more strategic and comprehensive non-financial interventions [3] - The report notes that the U.S. has implemented a series of bilateral and global trade measures, prompting retaliatory actions from other economies, including Canada and the EU, primarily involving tariff increases [3] Recommendations - The report calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for increased transparency in trade policies [4] - It advocates for strengthening the multilateral trading system to ensure fair and effective enforcement of trade rules and encourages collaborative solutions for sustainable trade policies, particularly in renewable energy and clean technology [4]

美国方面7日称，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关 税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓期截止日期延长至8月1日。对此，联合国和世界贸易组织的合设机构国际 贸易中心执行主任帕梅拉·科克-汉密尔顿8日表示，美国总统特朗普所谓延长关税谈判期限的做法，实 际上进一步增加了不确定性和不稳定性。 ...