Report Summary 1. Core View - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82%. The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds increased by 0.24% to 87.45%. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, and that of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, and that of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years [4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Fund Stock Position Calculation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. This week, it increased by 0.24% to 87.45%, 0.77% lower than the quarterly report. Active equity funds' position rose by 0.31% to 89.55%, and partial - equity hybrid funds' position rose by 0.23% to 86.96% [7]. - The overall increase or decrease in positions of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week was mostly concentrated in [0%, 1%] (766 funds), followed by [-1%, 0%] (171 funds). Funds with sizes below 20 billion, between 20 - 50 billion, and 50 - 80 billion slightly increased their positions, while other - sized funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks were slightly reduced, and growth stocks were slightly increased. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap and mid - cap stocks were slightly increased, and small - cap stocks were slightly reduced [15]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week were electronics (13.65%), power equipment (8.70%), pharmaceutical biology (7.16%), automobiles (6.54%), and machinery (5.37%). The top 3 industries with increased positions were communication (+0.36%), building materials (+0.20%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.12%); the top 3 industries with reduced positions were comprehensive (-0.21%), national defense and military industry (-0.19%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [18]. 2.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 3bps. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, at the 99.40% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 3.26 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.69 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, with 7% of actively operated funds and 24% of conservatively operated funds; the median duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, with 55% of actively operated funds and 4% of conservatively operated funds [21]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, at the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.78 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.06 to 1.25 years. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, at the 99.20% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 5.00 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.84 years [23]. - This week, the estimated duration of credit bond funds was concentrated in [2.5, 3) (167 funds), followed by [3, 3.5) (126 funds). The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in [5,) (159 funds), followed by [4.5, 5) (54 funds) [28]. - Among credit bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations (above the 80% percentile of their own duration in the past year) this week was 6.62%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations (below the 20% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 24.39%. Among interest - rate bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations was 55.17%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations was 4.02% [29]. - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 1 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 5bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years, at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 1.16 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.11 to 0.48 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds decreased by 0.12 to 3.65 years [33].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 623.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 835.6 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2197.07 points, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 387.28 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 992.39 points, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 22.92 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1458.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.38 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included machinery, public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, textiles, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, geothermal energy, and innovative drugs [2] - Weak sectors included real estate, media, securities, education, insurance, and retail [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26.576 billion yuan [3] - The net outflow from the ChiNext was 12.112 billion yuan, and from the CSI 300 was 6.366 billion yuan [4] - Only four sectors saw net inflows: machinery (394 million yuan), home appliances (117 million yuan), coal (38 million yuan), and oil and petrochemicals (37 million yuan) [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2089 stocks saw net inflows, with 37 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 497 million yuan [6] - Conversely, 3048 stocks experienced net outflows, with 92 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - BYD had the highest net outflow at 1.308 billion yuan [8] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 33.89 million yuan, with 17 stocks being net bought and 14 stocks net sold [9] - The stock with the highest institutional net buy was Xiangyang Bearing, with about 111 million yuan [10]

2025 年 07 月 14 日 模型提示行业交易拥挤度上升，市 场情绪逐渐修复 ——量化择时周报 20250711 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 相关研究 - ⚫ 市场情绪得到修复：市场情绪指标数值为-0.25，较上周五的-0.9 有所上升，代表市场情 绪进一步修复，观点偏多。从所有分项指标分数之和的变化来看，本周分数呈现上升趋势。 ⚫ 行业交易拥挤度上升，PCR 结合 VIX 指标同步转正反映市场情绪修复：行业间交易波动 率上升代表当前资金活跃度回暖，资金观点分歧减弱、短期情绪不确定性下降；行业涨跌 趋势指标继续提示行业涨跌趋势不强，指标位置大幅提升但是上攻力量略显不足，因此短 期内可能迎来进一步调整。另外 PCR ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high in June, the highest level since 2012 [3]. - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises showed slight improvement, with the BCI index at 49.12 in June, up by 0.07% month-on-month [11]. - The report indicates a correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate differential and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the differential at -5.6 percentage points in May, reflecting a slight increase [11]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate differential was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [11]. - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises was 49.12 in June, indicating a slight improvement [11]. - The London gold spot price increased by 0.53% week-on-week [11]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in late June decreased by 0.88% month-on-month, totaling 2.129 million tons [2]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.90%, down by 0.39 percentage points [41]. - The price index for cement decreased by 1.57% week-on-week, with a current opening rate of 73.30% [60]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 72.92%, up by 2.51 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [2]. Exports Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June were 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1313.70 points, down by 2.18% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector performing best at +6.12% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 14 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3510.18 | 0.01% | 0.50 | | | 深证成指 | 10696.10 | 0.61% | 64.97 | | | 沪深 300 | 4014.81 | 0.12% | 4.78 | | | 创业板 | 2207.10 | 0.80% | 17.52 | | | 科创 50 | 994.45 | 1.48% | 14.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1420.81 | 0.90% | 12.64 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 2.02% | 银行 | -2.41% | 稀土永磁 | 5.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of A-share companies are forecasting substantial increases in net profits for the first half of 2025, with many expecting year-on-year growth exceeding 100% [1][7][10]. Group 1: Company Performance Highlights - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit of approximately 260 million to 280 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [3][5]. - Spring Autumn Electronics expects a net profit of 90 million to 110 million yuan, with a growth of 236.05% to 310.72% [8]. - Jin Qilin forecasts a net profit of around 106 million yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 222.36% [8]. - Beihua Co. predicts a net profit of 98 million to 111 million yuan, with a growth of 182.72% to 220.23% [8]. - Guojin Securities estimates a net profit of 1.092 billion to 1.137 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 140% to 150% [9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The surge in profits for Limin Co. is attributed to increased sales and prices of main products, improved gross margins, and higher investment income from affiliated companies [3]. - Sanhe Pipe's performance is driven by a focus on core business areas and cost control, leading to significant improvements in gross margins [6]. - The growth for Spring Autumn Electronics is linked to the rapid penetration of AI PCs and the booming demand for magnesium alloy materials in the new energy vehicle sector [8]. - The increase in Beihua Co.'s profits is primarily due to revenue growth and improved product gross margins [8]. - The strong performance of Guojin Securities is attributed to growth in wealth management and proprietary investment businesses [9].

2025 年 07 月 13 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北证 50 小幅上涨，北矿检测上会 ——北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北证 | 50 | -0.50% | 12.29% | 110.56% | | 沪深 | 300 | 3.86% | 7.49% | 17.09% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、广信 科技上市，下周锦华新材上会（推荐）*中小盘*罗 琨》——2025-06-30 《北交所行业周报：近期北证 50 指数呈震荡回调， 下周奥美森上会（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-06-23 《北交所行业周报：本周北交所放量下跌、交大铁 发正式上市，下周广信科技申购（推荐）*中小盘* 罗琨》——2025-06-16 《北交所行业周报：北证专精特新指数即将发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

证券代码：603969 证券简称：银龙股份 公告编号：2025-036 天津银龙预应力材料股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： （二）业绩预告情况 测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 16,066.91 万元至 万元，同比增长 60%至 80%。 净利润 16,061.31 万元至 18,068.97 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将 增加 6,022.99 万元至 8,030.65 万元，同比增长 60%至 80%。 （三）公司本次业绩预告数据未经会计师事务所审计。 二、上年同期业绩和财务状况 （一）2024 年半年度利润总额：12,850.06 万元；归属于母公司所有者的净 利润：10,041.82 万元；归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润： ? 经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净 利润为 16,066.91 万元至 18,075.27 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将 增加 6,025. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a robust performance in the mid-year earnings announcements for 2025, with numerous companies reporting significant profit increases, leading to stock price surges. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - A total of 483 A-share listed companies have released their earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 13 companies expected to see net profit increases exceeding 800% year-on-year, including notable firms like Huayin Power and Northern Rare Earth [1][2]. - Huayin Power is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.75 billion to 2.15 billion yuan compared to the previous year, resulting in a growth rate of over 4423% [2][3]. - Sanhe Pile is expected to report a net profit of 600 million to 750 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 3090.81% to 3888.51% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Key Companies and Their Performance - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 9 billion to 9.6 billion yuan, representing an increase of 8.55 billion to 9.15 billion yuan, or a growth rate of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [4]. - Muyuan Foods forecasts a net profit of 105 billion to 110 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39%, driven by increased pig sales and reduced breeding costs [5]. - Guolian Minsheng is expected to achieve a net profit of 11.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183%, with significant growth in its securities investment and wealth management sectors [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The stock prices of companies like Huayin Power have seen substantial increases, with a maximum rise of 93.13% since July [2]. - The performance of companies in emerging sectors such as renewable energy and agriculture is particularly strong, indicating a shift in market dynamics towards these industries [3][5]. - The overall trend suggests a favorable environment for companies that can adapt to market demands and optimize their operations, leading to significant profit growth [3][4].