21世纪经济报道记者雷椰 北京报道 2025年是我国"十四五"规划收官与"十五五"规划谋篇之年，也是我国"双碳"目标提出的五周年。与此同 时，气候变幻依旧莫测，"高温"警报持续拉响，全球平均温度"居高不下"。 近年来，ESG理念已经进入了全新的发展阶段。在国内政策的有力推动下，ESG建设正逐步融入国家治 理体系的总体框架。随着《上市公司可持续发展报告指引》《企业可持续披露准则——基本准则（试 行）》《上市公司信息披露管理办法》多项重要政策相继出台，ESG信息披露正在从"自愿"走向"强 制"，从"社会责任范畴"跨入"证券监管领域"，开启了企业可持续发展与监管融合的新篇章。 政策驱动下，市场实践层面的变化同样显著。今年 A 股 ESG 信披季已落下帷幕，Wind 数据显示，A 股上市公司 ESG 信披率连续攀升至 45.72%，创下历史新高。其中钢铁、煤炭、交通运输、石油石化等 高排放行业信披率均突破 60%。ESG 表现正成为传统企业转型的 "金钥匙"—— 良好的 ESG 实践不仅能 显著提升企业对金融机构的吸引力，更能为其争取到更多转型金融资源支持，加速产业升级进程。 ESG 的影响力不仅体现在企业个体层面， ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The average stock price in the A-share market is 11.97 yuan, with 43 stocks priced below 2 yuan, the lowest being Hengli Tui at 0.15 yuan [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3497.48 points, with a notable presence of low-priced stocks [1] - Among the low-priced stocks, 30 out of 43 showed an increase in price, with *ST Huifeng, Yabo Co., and Meibang Fashion leading the gains at 4.65%, 4.35%, and 3.83% respectively [1] Group 2: Low-Priced Stocks Details - The list of stocks priced below 2 yuan includes: - Hengli Tui (0.15 yuan), with a market-to-book ratio of 0.38 [1] - Tui Shi Jiu You (0.17 yuan), with a market-to-book ratio of 2.82 [1] - Zhong Cheng Tui (0.25 yuan), with a market-to-book ratio of 2.17 [1] - The low-priced stocks include 10 ST stocks, accounting for 23.26% of the total [1] Group 3: Performance of Specific Stocks - The top gainers among low-priced stocks include: - *ST Huifeng (1.80 yuan) with a daily increase of 4.65% [2] - Yabo Co. (1.68 yuan) with a daily increase of 4.35% [2] - Meibang Fashion (1.90 yuan) with a daily increase of 3.83% [2] - The top losers include: - Tui Shi Jin Gang (0.53 yuan) with a decrease of 7.02% [1] - Tui Shi Jiu You (0.17 yuan) with a decrease of 5.56% [1] - *ST Baoying (1.98 yuan) with a decrease of 1.00% [2]

Liquidity and Funding - The supply side of funds is contracting, with public equity new issuance dropping to 3.52 billion units from 14.36 billion, representing a 44% percentile over the past three years[8] - Southbound funds have maintained a weekly average net inflow of over 10 billion for seven consecutive weeks, totaling over 120 billion[4] - The total amount of stock buybacks increased significantly to 9 billion from 2.09 billion, reaching the 98% percentile over the past three years[24] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector rose by 22 percentage points to 27%, while the steel sector increased by 21 percentage points to 39%[4] - The brokerage sector's trading heat increased by 14 percentage points to 53%, indicating a strong interest in these sectors[50] - Conversely, the mechanical sector's trading heat decreased by 11 percentage points to 11%, and the medical services sector fell by 6 percentage points to 84%[4] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market reached 81.57 billion, an increase of 21.87 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 37.6% percentile over the past five years[4] - The market saw a significant rise in search interest for A-shares on Kuaishou, reaching a new high for the year as the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3500 points[66] - The sentiment on Weibo improved significantly, driven by the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, indicating a rise in optimistic sentiment among investors[74]

2025 年 07 月 07 日 模型提示价量匹配度降低，市场情 绪回落较快 ——量化择时周报 20250704 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 量 化 研 究 略 相关研究 - ⚫ 市场情绪进一步下行：市场情绪指标数值为-0.9，较上周五的-0.65 进一步下行，代表市 场情绪进一步回落，观点偏空。 ⚫ 价量匹配度降低，市场情绪继续下行：行业间交易波动率降低代表当前资金活跃度欠缺， 资金观点分歧加剧、短期情绪不确定性增强；科创 50 成交量占比指标继续提示行业涨跌 趋势较弱，指标位置大幅提升但是上攻力量略显不足，因此短期内可能迎来进一步调整。 另外 PCR 结合 VIX 指标继续波动，行业涨跌趋势维持平稳。综合各项指标，模型得出市 场情绪 ...

继首批自由现金流ETF成立后，方正富邦中证全指自由现金流ETF联接即将开售， 比如设备升级(资本开支)：升级冰箱设备，花了2000元； 备货压力：下个月要进更多货，提前多存了 1000元的库存； 举一个通俗例子：假设你是一位小卖部老板，以下是小卖部的日常经营状况以及自由现金流情况。 总收入：假设这个月你卖出零食饮料，收到现金1万元。 运营成本：进货成本、房租、员工工资等花掉了6000元。 净利润：1万 - 6千 = 4000元 看起来赚了4000块。 但是：你的小卖部有些"必须花的钱"，会计利润里没直接体现： 十个问题，带您看看这只基金该不该买？该怎么买？ 01.什么是自由现金流？ | 中证现金流-前20大成份股 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集中度 | 存名 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 持仓权重 | | 甲刀三袋行业 | | 美的集团 | 1 000333. SZ | | 10.8% | 10.8% | 空调 | | 油气开采II | 2 600938. SH | 中国海海 | 10. 3% | 21. 1% | | | 3 | 00 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:29，今日沪指跌0.09%，A股成交量480.69亿股，成交金额5802.98亿 元，比上一个交易日减少9.99%。个股方面，2915只个股上涨，其中涨停43只，2206只个股下跌，其中 跌停2只。从申万行业来看，房地产、综合、建筑材料等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.66%、1.22%、 1.12%；煤炭、通信、石油石化等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.64%、1.14%、1.02%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:29） | 家用电器 | | | | 极米科技 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | -1.02 | 37.96 | 14.06 | 中曼石油 | -3.00 | | 通信 | -1.14 | 298.80 | -9.01 | 有方科技 | -12.31 | | 煤炭 | -3.64 | 35.58 | -7.87 | 中国神华 | -2.42 | （文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | - ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 量化周报 市场未来有望继续上行 市场未来有望继续上行。本周（ 6.30-7.4），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，基础化工、电力设备及新能源确认日线级别上 涨。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由 于上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创 业板指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上 涨，因此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，市场未来有望 继续上行。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成 指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨 中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开 始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，A 股景气指数为 21.59，相 比 2023 年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector debt is expected to decline, and the government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the overall economy [1][17]. - In the short term, the stock - bond ratio may fluctuate, but in the long run, it tends to favor bonds. The stock style tends to favor value stocks, and the bond configuration window is open, but the trading space is limited [16][22]. - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended investment portfolio includes the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [7][16][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In May 2025, the real - sector debt growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.0% previously. It is expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The government debt growth rate is expected to rise to 15.3% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has been loosening recently, but it is unlikely to remain so [1][17][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in May was weaker than in April. The annual nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [5][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market continued to loosen. The stock market was bullish, and the bond market was stable. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks, but the equity style shifted to value stocks. The short - and long - term bond yields were relatively stable [6][21]. - In the long run, during the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style favors value stocks. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.5%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, building materials, banks, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors had the largest increases, while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail sectors had the largest declines [28]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of July 4, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and machinery equipment, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, and real estate. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, electronics, machinery equipment, and building materials, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - bank finance, computer, banks, national defense and military industry, and automobiles. - The average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market slightly decreased compared to last week. Steel, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, and coal had the highest trading volume growth rates [30][31]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, banks, building materials, pharmaceutical biology, and media had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail had the largest declines. - As of July 4, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history included coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, beauty care, and consumer electronics [35][37]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It generally recovered. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.3 in June, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 1.92% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate rose from - 1.3% in May to 4.3% in June, and Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [39]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in May and continued to rise in June. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - home trading volume was at a historical low, and second - hand home trading volume declined seasonally [39]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of July (June 30 - July 4), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of July 4, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.55 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. - Based on these characteristics and the under - allocation situation in the public fund quarterly reports, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [9][59].

能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 证券研究报告 原油周报：OPEC+或将在八月继续增产 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别68.2/66.3美元/桶，较上周分别-0.2/+0.6美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比 +408/+385/+24/-149万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1343万桶/天，环比0万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周425台，环比-7台。美国活跃压裂 车队本周179部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1711万桶/天，环比+12万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.9%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净 ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange's 50 Index increased by 2.73% in June 2025, outperforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board but lagging behind the Growth Enterprise Market [3][6][11] - In the first half of 2025, the North Exchange's 50 Index surged by 39%, significantly outperforming other major indices, while the Specialized and New Index rose by 49% [3][6][11] - The top-performing sectors in June 2025 included oil and petrochemicals, media, and transportation, with notable companies achieving substantial gains [11][15][17] Group 2 - A total of 31 companies saw their stock prices rise by 20% or more in June 2025, with seven companies exceeding 40% growth, primarily in machinery and petrochemical sectors [15][16] - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange A-shares reached 52x as of June 30, 2025, which is 141% of the Growth Enterprise Market's valuation and 91% of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's valuation [21][30] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable long-term growth and unique production capabilities, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, as well as recent hot themes like defense and low-altitude economy [27][30] Group 3 - The trading volume on the North Exchange decreased to 269.90 billion shares in June 2025, with a slight drop in daily trading value to around 304 billion yuan [17][18] - The average daily turnover rate for the North Exchange was 69% in June 2025, down from 77% in May [17][19] - The report indicates that the North Exchange's market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a cautious approach [27][30] Group 4 - The report highlights the upcoming earnings disclosures for 23 companies in mid-August 2025, indicating a focus on companies with expected strong Q2 performance [28][30] - The North Exchange is in a normalization process for new stock issuances, with one company scheduled for IPO review next week [45]