Core Viewpoint - TSMC has decided to prioritize investment in expanding its U.S. operations over the construction of a second factory in Kumamoto, Japan, due to concerns over potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imported chips [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Decisions - TSMC's second factory in Japan was part of a $20 billion investment plan, which has received over $8 billion in support from the Japanese government [2]. - The construction of the second factory, initially scheduled to begin earlier this year, has been delayed, with no accurate timeline for the start of operations currently available [3]. - TSMC's global expansion continues, with a factory under construction in Germany expected to be operational by the end of 2027 [3]. Group 2: U.S. Operations - TSMC announced plans to invest at least $100 billion in the U.S. over the coming years, in addition to a previously announced investment of $65 billion [3]. - The company is building its third chip factory in Phoenix, Arizona, which will be the only facility outside Taiwan capable of producing the most advanced process chips for major U.S. tech companies like Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant upgrade in data center power infrastructure driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power, particularly focusing on NVIDIA's 800V High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technology, which is expected to reshape the third-generation semiconductor foundry landscape by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: HVDC Technology and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's 800V HVDC technology allows for an 85% increase in power transmission through the same size of wire compared to traditional architectures, with a key difference being the conversion of 800V DC to 54V DC [1]. - The demand for Power ICs in Compute Trays is expected to rise, with memory voltage needing to shift from 54V to 12V, creating opportunities for Taiwanese companies like Dazhong (8081) and Maida (6138) to capture market share [2]. - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Navitas involves the use of GaN and SiC technologies; however, TSMC's decision to gradually exit the GaN market raises questions about the future application of GaN in data centers due to safety concerns [2]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Implications - TSMC is optimizing its production capacity by reallocating workforce from older plants to support advanced packaging, which may create opportunities for other foundries like Lijidian to fill the gap in certain mature and specialized process nodes [2]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see overseas PMIC manufacturers adjust their product offerings based on customer needs, providing Taiwanese supply chains with opportunities to penetrate Tier 1 customers [3].

成都华微 20250703 摘要 人形机器人市场前景广阔，全球及亚太地区规模预计达千亿级别，亚太 地区年增长率超 20%，成为投资热点，尤其在无人化工作环境和减少战 争人员损失方面潜力巨大，推动相关芯片需求增长。 人形机器人未来发展趋势包括与人工智能和物联网深度融合，通过软件 和操作系统升级实现智能化，市场细分以满足多样化业务需求，强调节 能环保的可持续发展，以及人机协作模式。 人形机器人的关键技术包括轻量化材料、模块化设计、高精度传感器、 液压系统、散热系统和防滑设计，其中高精度传感器通过 ADC 芯片将物 理信号转为数字信号处理，液压系统提供动力，散热系统保障长时间工 作。 运动控制技术是核心，高精度伺服系统使用 MMCUs 如 HWD32H743 芯片，其浮点运算能力超过主流 DSP，未来可能将 CAN 总线改为 EtherCAT 单总线以提高传输速率，小脑芯片通过嵌入式 CPU 和 FPGA 协同工作实现运动规划。 当前主流 AI 芯片如英特尔 X86 CPU 和英伟达 GPU 功耗高，限制了应用 推广。为解决此问题，公司正在研发专用 AI 芯片，已开发出 12TOPS 算力的边端侧 AI 芯片，并计 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.62% to 24,221.41 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.64% to 5,269.11 points, and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.54% to 8,724.9 points [1][2]. Steel Sector - The steel sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Chongqing Steel's stock reaching a peak increase of 135.56% before closing with a 91.11% rise at HKD 1.72 per share. Other companies like Ansteel and China Oriental Group also saw increases of over 10% [5][7]. - A rumor regarding production limits in Tangshan from July 4 to July 15, with a potential reduction in daily output by 30%, has drawn market attention. Current production data indicates a utilization rate of 83%, which could drop to 70% under the new limits [7]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks performed well, with Shandong Gold rising over 5%. Other companies such as Zijin Mining and China National Gold also experienced gains [8][10]. - Macau's gaming revenue for June reached MOP 210.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, driven by events like concerts [11]. Solar Sector - The solar sector showed strong performance, with companies like Fuyao Glass increasing by over 11%. A collective decision by major solar glass manufacturers to reduce production by 30% is expected to address supply-demand imbalances [12]. Chip and Military Sectors - The chip sector faced declines, with Shanghai Fudan dropping over 4%, and other companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC also experiencing losses [13][14]. - The military sector also saw declines, with China Shipbuilding Defense falling over 4% [15]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC suggest that the macro environment for Hong Kong stocks is characterized by abundant liquidity and structural highlights, leading to index fluctuations. UBS forecasts continued net inflows from mainland investors, with significant buying activity noted earlier in the year [16].

【导读】 港股高开低走，钢铁板块午后拉升，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片股、军工 股下挫 见习记者 储是 7月2日为港股下半年第一个交易日。 今日，港股高开低走，窄幅震荡。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.62%，报收于24221.41点；恒 生科技指数下跌0.64%，报收于5269.11点；国企指数上涨0.54%，报收于8724.9点。 盘面上，大型科网股普遍走高，钢铁板块午后猛拉，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片 股、军工股下挫。 大型科技股多数走高 此外，弘业期货H股跌超13%，A股跌停两连板，累计下跌超19%。 黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强 今日，山东黄金涨超5%，潼关黄金、紫金矿业、招金矿业、中国黄金国际等纷纷上涨。 涨跌不一 京东集团涨0.08%，小米集团涨0.33%，美团涨0.56%；阿里巴巴跌0.36%，腾讯控股跌 0.3%，网易跌1.33%，快手跌2.76%，哔哩哔哩跌2.21%。 钢铁板块午后拉升 重庆钢铁股份盘中突破130% 午后，港股钢铁板块持续拉升。重庆钢铁股份盘中涨幅一度扩大至135.56%。截至收盘，涨 幅回落至91.11%，报1.72港元/股。该公司A股也于午后快速拉升并封住涨停。此外 ...

证券时报·券商中国记者从渠道获悉，千亿私募景林资产管理合伙人、基金经理高云程近日发布2025年中给 投资者的一封信《拥有"城里最好的三个生意"》。 在信中，高云程表示："找到那个有好生意的城，找出最好的几个生意，长期拥有这些生意。"要把组合集中在 尽可能少的确定性机会上，大部分时候：少才能对，慢就是快。 他还表示，世界正在从单极变为多极，中国资产应该获得世界的平视。这个再平衡的过程，会给组合带来一定 的额外奖励。 拥有"城里最好的生意" "2025年上半年像看大片一样精彩和跌宕。" 高云程在信中称，大波动叠加结构性机会形成了上半年股票市场 的主基调。很多行业都出现了DeepSeek时刻。抓住新消费和创新药这两个结构性机会的投资者，觉得这半年 是大牛市。AI（人工智能）的发展在经历波折后，继续用强劲的基本面证明这是当前最伟大的技术革命，有需 求、有投资、有应用，也开始有收入。此外，坚信中国长期无风险收益率会持续低位的投资者，也通过投资高 股息公司躺赢。 高云程谈到，年轻人通过自己的消费行为塑造了新时代的新消费范式，新"禁酒令"却让旧消费雪上加霜。现在 抢玩偶的人，上一代他们的同龄人在抢购生肖茅台，和再之前的邮票 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show strong fluctuations, with trading volume reaching 1.46 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous day [1] - Institutional net inflow was 17.8 billion, while both main and retail investors collectively withdrew nearly 40 billion, indicating a typical market behavior of alternating between consolidation and upward movement [1] - The index is operating within a healthy range, approaching the previous high of 3462 points, with a potential breakthrough to the next target of 3500 points [1] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors this year are pharmaceuticals, military industry, and semiconductors, which are expected to remain active in the coming months due to strong mid-to-long-term support [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is driven by domestic substitution, policy support, and international expansion, with recent policies from the National Health Commission promoting the development of innovative drugs and their inclusion in insurance [2] - The military sector benefits from expectations surrounding military parades and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while the semiconductor sector is supported by significant investments from the National Fund into critical areas and recent breakthroughs in optical technology [2] - Overall, the pharmaceutical, military, and semiconductor sectors are identified as the most promising investment opportunities as long as the upward trend remains intact [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing supply chain battle between China and the U.S. is intensifying, with the U.S. employing export controls as a central issue in trade negotiations, while China retaliates by controlling rare earth supplies [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. has implemented stringent measures in the chip sector, effectively isolating China, while China has responded by leveraging its control over rare earth resources [1][6]. - China has adopted a "dual-line" strategy in rare earth exports, tightening controls on critical materials while easing restrictions on ordinary rare earths to meet civilian demand [6][4]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - Since April 2023, China has introduced an export licensing system for seven critical minerals, leading to a complete halt in exports of certain rare earths like terbium and dysprosium, which were previously exported in significant quantities [3][4]. - The U.S. has felt the pressure from these export restrictions, with companies like Ford experiencing production halts due to a lack of rare earth magnets essential for manufacturing [4][6]. Group 3: International Reactions - The G7 countries are collaborating on a "critical minerals action plan" to counter China's rare earth strategy, with the U.S. pushing for resource development in regions like Greenland and Canada [6][7]. - Despite these efforts, China maintains a dominant position, controlling 80% to 90% of the global rare earth supply, making it challenging for the U.S. and its allies to reduce dependency [6][7]. Group 4: Future Implications - The control of rare earth resources is pivotal in the trade war, with potential significant impacts on U.S. high-tech industries if China escalates export restrictions [7]. - The effectiveness of any agreements between the two nations will depend on the U.S.'s genuine commitment to reducing trade friction, as past behaviors have led to skepticism from China [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the semiconductor market as manufacturers clear inventory, leading to rising prices and delivery times for analog chips [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analog chip prices and delivery times are increasing as manufacturers address inventory backlogs [2]. - Texas Instruments (TI) is raising the production process of various analog components by 30%, with some data converter component prices doubling [2]. - TI is increasing the output of 300mm wafer analog components at its Richardson, Texas facility and plans to invest $60 billion to build three new fabs [2]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The German distribution trade group FBDi anticipates market improvement in the second half of 2025 due to reduced inventory [3]. - Supply chain resilience has become a priority for companies post-COVID, emphasizing the need for robust risk management strategies [3]. - Generative AI is increasingly applied in supply chain management, enabling continuous analysis of large datasets to identify potential risks and generate insights [3]. Group 3: Distributor Insights - UK distributor Anglia's marketing director indicates that market conditions are improving, with suppliers concerned about potential order backlogs due to expected longer delivery times later in the year [4].

中美达成了一项关于稀土供应的"谅解协议"，这不仅仅是一次简单的贸易往来，更像是一场博弈中的战术撤退。中国向美国企业发放了有效期仅六个月的稀 土出口许可证，涵盖风力涡轮机、喷气式飞机等多种用途，而作为回应，美国撤销了五月实施的对华限制措施。这一举动看似是对抗中的短暂和平，实则是 中方策略性的一招。 短期性的许可证安排，既保证了供应链短期内的稳定，也给未来留下了足够的谈判空间和反制筹码。 在中美贸易战的背景下，特朗普计划率领包括马斯克（特斯拉）、黄仁勋（英伟达）在内的十名顶尖CEO访华的消息，无疑为这场紧张的关系带来了新的变 数。 这些行业巨头代表着新能源、人工智能、半导体等关键领域，他们对中国市场的依赖程度极高。此次访问不仅是商界对政治决策的一种无声抗议，更是对美 国对华"脱钩"政策失败的公开承认。面对国内债务危机、低迷的支持率以及经济压力，特朗普不得不寻求与中国的合作以缓解内部矛盾。 特朗普可能希望通过这次访问解决美债危机，挽救其不断下滑的支持率，并缓解中美之间的经贸压力。随着中国连续减持美债，美元霸权受到了前所未有的 挑战。同时，由于贸易战的影响，美国经济增长放缓，就业市场受损。 而且，截至目前为止，没有任 ...