今日长江现货 1# 锡报 422750-424750 元 / 吨，均价 423750 元 / 吨，较前一交易日暴跌 11750 元，创下 近期单日最大跌幅，成为当日工业金属市场调整最剧烈的品种。作为AI算力、半导体与光伏新能源的 核心科技金属，锡价此番深度回调并非单一利空所致，而是宏观情绪、地缘缓解、供需转弱、产业链分 化与资金离场五重因素共振的结果。本文将聚焦当日市场剧变，层层剖析其背后逻辑，并对后续走势作 出预判。 宏观施压：科技股与美元联动压制估值 当日锡价下跌的首要驱动力源自海外宏观情绪的迅速恶化。美股科技龙头微软因业绩指引疲软单日重挫 近10%，引发市场对全球科技资本开支的担忧，与科技股高度绑定的锡需求预期随之降温。与此同时， 美元指数日内异动上行，叠加美债收益率维持高位，触发了大宗商品投机资金的集体获利了结。全球避 险情绪自贵金属、虚拟货币蔓延至工业金属板块，内外宏观面形成合力，直接压低了锡的金融属性估 值。 地缘边际缓解：刚果金扰动预期降温 此前助推锡价冲高的刚果金地缘风险出现局部缓和迹象。尽管东部武装冲突持续，但部分矿区周边形势 暂未进一步恶化，主要合规矿企的生产与运输未受实质性冲击。市场此前 ...

Group 1 - The report focuses on the long-term cyclical analysis of commodities, identifying five major commodity upcycles since 1850, with an average duration of 11.8 years and an average price increase of 125% [6][12][15] - The analysis highlights that energy and metals are classic cyclical commodities, while agricultural products tend to underperform, and precious metals gained prominence only after the abandonment of the gold standard by major economies [6][12][18] - The report identifies three structural factors influencing commodity cycles: wars, technological revolutions, and emerging demand, emphasizing that not all wars positively impact commodity prices and that technological breakthroughs often coincide with commodity bull markets [6][12][42] Group 2 - The report notes that the current commodity cycle began in 2020, coinciding with a recession and a low point in commodity prices, and suggests that the ongoing technological revolution, particularly in AI, may be in its early stages [6][12][42] - It emphasizes that the current cycle lacks significant geopolitical tensions or unexpected surges in emerging demand, which are critical for sustaining commodity price increases [6][12][42] - The report also points out that the depreciation of the US dollar is a favorable factor for the current commodity cycle, while an economic recession could serve as a critical test for the cycle's strength [6][12][42] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed examination of the performance of various commodity categories during past cycles, indicating that energy and industrial metals have consistently performed well, while agricultural products have shown weaker long-term performance [18][24][31] - It discusses the historical context of agricultural products, noting that their prices have generally trended downward due to increasing agricultural efficiency, although they can perform well during significant supply shocks, such as during wartime [24][30] - The report highlights that gold and silver have not always been dominant in commodity cycles, with their significant price increases occurring primarily in the last two cycles, influenced by the decoupling of currencies from gold [31][35]

每经AI快讯，1月30日，伦敦金属交易所铜价下跌逾1%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 每日经济新闻 ...

这一戏剧性的行情让资深市场人士感到震惊。据彭博，拥有三十年铜市场经验的前Trafigura Group 交易员 Mark Thompson 表示："这样的行情一辈子可能只 能遇到一次，我们距离2万美元的铜价仅差一次供应中断。" 中国资金驱动"历史性"行情 中国投资者正在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，推动上海期货交易所（SHFE）成交量激增。 截至上周，1月份已创下上期所六大基本金属有史以来最繁忙的月度记录，周四铜的单日成交量更是达到了历史第二高位。 在中国投资者强劲买盘的推动下，铜价创下十六年来的最大单日涨幅，大宗商品市场正在经历一场罕见的历史性狂欢。 周四下午，铜价一度飙升11%，首次突破每吨14500美元的历史高位，随后在高位出现急剧回调。自12月初以来，铜价已累计上涨约21%。 此次暴涨恰逢美元汇率跌至四年多来的最低点，促使中国投资者大规模转向大宗商品市场，从锡到白银等各类金属价格均被推向历史新高。 这波由中国交易员 主导的买盘在伦敦时间凌晨2:30引爆市场，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在不到一小时内上涨超过5%，六大基本金属指数收盘创下历史纪录。 这波行情具有明显的时段特征。伦敦金属交易所（LME）的初始暴涨 ...

美元跌至四年低点叠加中国投资者疯狂涌入，铜价单日暴涨11%创十六年最大涨幅，首次突破14500美元历史高位！但狂欢背后隐忧浮现：实物需求疲 软，监管层紧急降温，高盛警告技术性调整将至。 周四下午，铜价一度飙升11%，首次突破每吨14500美元的历史高位，随后在高位出现急剧回调。自12月初以来，铜价已累计上涨约21%。 本周金属价格的飙升与宏观经济环境紧密相关。 美元指数跌至四年多低点，使得以美元计价的大宗商品对许多买家更具吸引力。 此外，特朗普对美元疲软表示并不担忧的信号，进一步鼓励投资者抛 售美国国债，转而青睐大宗商品。 此次暴涨恰逢美元汇率跌至四年多来的最低点，促使中国投资者大规模转向大宗商品市场，从锡到白银等各类金属价格均被推向历史新高。 这波由中 国交易员主导的买盘在伦敦时间凌晨2:30引爆市场，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在不到一小时内上涨超过5%，六大基本金属指数收盘创下历史纪 录。 这一戏剧性的行情让资深市场人士感到震惊。据彭博，拥有三十年铜市场经验的前Trafigura Group 交易员 Mark Thompson 表示："这样的行情一辈子 可能只能遇到一次，我们距离2万美元的铜价仅差一次供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies seeing substantial declines, leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards traditional assets like gold [3][5][9]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell over 5%, dropping below $85,000 to $84,425, while Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw declines exceeding 6% [5]. - In the last 24 hours, over 227,939 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.014 billion (approximately 70.5 billion RMB) [7]. - Tether's CEO announced plans to allocate 10% to 15% of their investment portfolio into physical gold, indicating a shift in investment strategy [7]. - Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, suggesting a decline in investor confidence [8]. Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with gold prices dropping over $400 before recovering some losses, ultimately closing at $5,377.4 per ounce, a 0.69% decrease [12][14]. - Silver prices fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $115.87, marking a maximum drop of 8.5% [13]. - Analysts attribute the sharp decline in precious metals to profit-taking after recent price highs [14]. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq Composite index dropping 2.6% at one point, ultimately closing down 0.72% [4][14]. - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 12% during trading after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth, impacting the software sector significantly [14]. - In contrast, Meta's shares rose 10.4% following its earnings report, which indicated a significant increase in expected capital expenditures [15]. Investor Sentiment - There is growing skepticism regarding Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge, especially as it underperforms compared to gold and silver [9][10]. - The overall market sentiment is shifting, with long-term Bitcoin believers moving towards precious metals and equities as safer investments [7][9].

| 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4157.98 | +6.74(0.16%) | | 深证指数 | 14300.08 | -42.81(-0.3%) | | 创业板指 | 3304.51 | -19.05 (-0.57%) | | | 日期:1月29日 制图:21投资通 | | 昨日A股 1月29日，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指窄幅震荡，上证50指数涨超1%，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指数跌 超3%。截至收盘，沪指涨0.16%，深成指跌0.3%，创业板指跌0.57%。沪深两市成交额3.23万亿，较上 一个交易日放量2646亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超3500只个股下跌。从板块来看，白酒板块午后爆发，泸州老窖、 水井坊、舍得酒业、皇台酒业、酒鬼酒涨停。有色金属板块反复活跃，金属铜、贵金属领涨，西部黄金 7天4板，中国黄金5连板，北方铜业2连板创历史新高。油气股延续强势，洲际油气7天5板，准油股份2 连板，中曼石油4天3板。房地产板块震荡反弹，大悦城、三湘印象、我爱我家涨停。下跌方面，芯片产 业链下挫，美埃科技、京仪装备跌超9%。 隔夜外盘 ...

在中国投资者强劲买盘的推动下，铜价创下十六年来的最大单日涨幅，大宗商品市场正在经历一场罕见的历史性狂欢。 周四下午，铜价一度飙升11%，首次突破每吨14500美元的历史高位，随后在高位出现急剧回调。自12月初以来，铜价已累计上涨约21%。 本周金属价格的飙升与宏观经济环境紧密相关。 美元指数跌至四年多低点，使得以美元计价的大宗商品对许多买家更具吸引力。此外，特朗普对美元疲软表示并不担忧的信号，进一步鼓励投资 者抛售美国国债，转而青睐大宗商品。 Panmure Liberum高级大宗商品分析师 Tom Price 指出："出于对美元进一步走软的担忧，审慎的投资者正将资本撤回国内。" 此外，美联储的政策预期也为涨势添火。美联储主席鲍威尔在周三维持借贷成本不变的同时，谈及美国经济前景的"明显改善"。市场猜测下一任 美联储主席可能比鲍威尔更为鸽派，加上特朗普政府更为强硬的外交政策导致地缘政治紧张局势升级，都推高了对实物资产的需求。 此次暴涨恰逢美元汇率跌至四年多来的最低点，促使中国投资者大规模转向大宗商品市场，从锡到白银等各类金属价格均被推向历史新高。这波 由中国交易员主导的买盘在伦敦时间凌晨2:30引爆市场，伦敦金 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.11% at 49,071.56 points, the S&P 500 down 0.13% at 6,969.01 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.72% at 23,685.12 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with META up over 10%, Microsoft down about 10%, Tesla down over 3%, TSMC down 1%, ARM down 1.39%, and ASML up over 2% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Futu down over 2%, Bilibili and NetEase down over 1%, NIO up over 3%, and TAL Education up over 18% [1] - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 1.92% at 24,347.16 points, France's CAC40 up 0.06% at 8,071.36 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17% at 10,171.76 points [1] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 3.64% to $65.51 per barrel, while Brent oil main contract rose 3.43% to $69.68 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 96.16, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar decreased by 12.0 basis points to 6.9449 [1] - US Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 0.60 basis points to 3.557%, the 3-year yield down 1.39 basis points to 3.626%, the 5-year yield down 0.86 basis points to 3.814%, the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points to 4.233%, and the 30-year yield up 0.01 basis points to 4.853% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 3.3 basis points to 4.509%, France's 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 3.417%, Germany's 10-year yield down 1.8 basis points to 2.838%, Italy's 10-year yield down 1.9 basis points to 3.444%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1.6 basis points to 3.202% [1]

There is something significant going on in China. There are significant buyers of all the metals. They really started with gold last year.Gold got expensive, so they trickled over to everything. The bottom line, though, with copper is it's not a speculative metals industrial and China's number one source of demand. It's going up more because of issuances with the tariffs in the US and supply constraints.And I'm very concerned to copper, so I'm very concerned as long as the stock market gets going up, it's f ...