消息面上，中东局势持续紧张。据报道，特朗普倾向于在未来几天对伊朗发动首轮打击。若首轮打击效 果不佳，特朗普将考虑对伊朗发动更大规模袭击。卫星图像显示，美国在中东的战斗机数量激增。黄金 白银今日盘中同步拉升。现货黄金一度突破5150美元，涨1.20%；现货白银日内涨幅扩大至2.86%。 此外，多家大行上调黄金目标价。澳新银行预计，金价将在今年第二季度触及5800美元/盎司；杰富瑞 已将2026年黄金价格预测从4200美元上调至5000美元；瑞银则认为年中金价最高或触及6200美元/盎 司，主要支撑来自央行与投资需求、财政赤字扩大、美国实际利率下行以及地缘政治风险。 紫金矿业 紫金矿业 招金矿业 中国黄金国际 万国黄金集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 39.32 1.54 4.08% 4.66% 3.10% 1.56% 0.00% 1.56% 3.10% 4.66% 36.02 36.61 37.19 37.78 38.37 38.95 39.54 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 400万 800万 1201万 黄金股早盘集体高开，截至发稿，中国黄金（600916） ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 纽蒙特 2025Q4 权益黄金产量环比增加 2%至 45.1 吨，调整后净利润环比增长 46%至 27.53 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 2025Q4 纽蒙特权益黄金总产量为 145 万盎司（约 45.1 吨）， 环比增加 2%，同比减少 24%。主要得益于 Ahafo 北矿新增低 成本黄金产量、Tanami 和 Merian 矿区品位提升，以及内华达 金矿非控股合资企业产量增加。但 Peñasquito、Ahafo 南矿、 Yanacocha、Brucejack 和 Cadia 矿区因计划性开采顺序调整导 致产量下降，部分抵消了上述增长。 2025 年纽蒙特权益黄金总产量为 589 万盎司（约 183.2 吨）， 同比减少 14%。 2025Q4 公司黄金平均实现价格为 4216 美元/盎司，环比上涨 19%，同比上涨 60%。该价格包含每盎司 4,173 美元的总收款 价、临时定价销售产生的每盎司 ...

国外 1. 瑞银：美联储降息及地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，金价将升至6200美元 瑞银重申对黄金的积极立场，预计未来数月国际现货黄金目标价达6200美元/盎司。分析师认为，在美 国与伊朗紧张局势下，地缘政治风险将持续高企，而美联储宽松周期预计将继续，对实际利率构成压 力。分析师指出，2025年全球黄金需求突破5000吨，瑞银预计，在更强劲的投资流动和各国央行持续购 买的推动下，金价将进一步上涨。供应方面，增长似乎受限。虽然金价高企可能激励勘探活动，但咨询 公司伍德麦肯兹估计，到2028年，约有80座矿山将耗尽当前的生产计划，这表明短期内供应弹性有限。 2. 高盛：央行购金叠加私人投资，金价年底前将缓慢攀升至5400美元 高盛预计，黄金价格将逐步攀升，到2026年底达到5400美元/盎司，多元化配置将带来上行空间。与此 同时，高盛预计2026年央行购金活动将以2025年所见的步伐再度加速。其核心观点是，央行需求加上私 人投资者增加持仓（主要因应对美联储降息而增持）支撑金价稳步上涨。高盛指出，如果私营部门的多 元化举措（尤其是看涨期权结构）有所增加，那么市场将面临显著的上行风险。此外，中期趋势虽仍呈 上升态势，但可 ...

自重组预案披露以来，湖南黄金及相关各方全力推进审计、评估、尽职调查等各项工作。公司表示，待 相关工作完成后，将再次召开董事会，并依照法定程序召集股东大会审议本次交易相关事项。 公司同时提示风险，本次交易尚需履行必要的内部决策程序，并经有权监管机构批准或同意注册后方可 正式实施，能否最终实施存在较大不确定性。公司将严格按照法律法规履行信息披露义务，相关信息以 公司指定信息披露渠道发布的公告为准，敬请广大投资者关注后续公告并注意投资风险。 在资本运作进程上，公司股票已于2026年1月12日开市起停牌，1月23日召开第七届董事会第十五次会 议，审议通过本次交易相关议案；1月26日，公司披露交易预案并申请股票复牌，当日起公司股票恢复 交易。 2月24日，湖南黄金股份有限公司(证券简称：湖南黄金，证券代码：002155)对外发布重大资产重组进 展公告。公告显示，公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金事项正按计划有序推进，截至本公告披露 日，未发现可能导致本次交易撤销、中止或者对交易方案作出实质性变更的相关事项。 根据此前披露的交易方案，湖南黄金拟通过发行股份方式，购买湖南黄金集团有限责任公司、湖南天岳 投资集团有限公司持有 ...

2月24日，马年第一个交易日，A股喜迎开门红，三大指数集体上涨，上证指数收涨0.87%，深成指收涨 1.36%，创业板指收涨0.99%，北证50指数收涨0.37%，沪深京三市成交额22182亿元，较前一个交易日 放量2192亿元，三市超4000只个股上涨，逾百股涨停。盘面上，地缘风险升级，贵金属与石油石化板块 迎来爆发，中曼石油等10余股涨停。 节后A股即将进入高胜率窗口 消息面上，2月24日，现货黄金盘中冲上5200美元。此前，现货黄金连续四个交易日上涨。 据央视新闻，美国和伊朗新一轮谈判将于2月26日在瑞士日内瓦举行。而在准备新一轮谈判的同时，"福 特"号航母已抵达东地中海重要基地，多架美军机降落以色列本-古里安机场，美国务院更官宣在黎巴嫩 开始"撤人"。 华西证券研报认为，资源品方面，贵金属和石油上涨，或与美伊谈判反复的背景相关。由于关键议题仍 未达成协议，美伊局势恶化，伦敦金现货价接连上涨，重新冲上5200美元/盎司大关。在此背景下，有 色和石油板块的修复趋势有望延续。行业层面，需关注资源品，例如贵金属、工业有色和原油，其行情 由商品市场涨价逻辑推动。 AI催化不断，科技主线仍获聚焦 与此同时，随着春 ...

股价异动原因 公司基本面支撑：中金黄金2025年业绩预告显示净利润同比预增41.76%-59.48%，主要受益于矿产金销 售均价上涨及成本管控优化。 国际金价突破历史高点：春节期间伦敦现货黄金上涨3.64%，2月24日亚洲盘一度冲高至5249美元/盎 司，创历史新高。国内沪金期货主力合约同步上涨3.52%至1150.5元/克，内外盘价差扩大形成补涨动 力。 避险情绪升温：美伊地缘局势紧张、美国关税政策不确定性推升市场波动，恐慌指数VIX单日大涨 10.06%至21.01，资金涌入黄金等避险资产。 板块资金流入：A股有色金属板块涨幅3.31%，黄金ETF（518880）单日上涨3.88%，机构资金通过黄金 产业股票指数产品加大配置。 经济观察网 中金黄金（600489）今日股价上涨主要受贵金属板块整体走强及国际金价创新高带动。根 据2026年2月24日数据，贵金属板块单日涨幅达5.55%，而中金黄金当日收盘价为31.10元，涨幅5.39%。 未来发展 当前金价处于历史高位，需关注美联储政策预期变化及地缘局势进展对价格的短期波动影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

每经AI快讯，2月24日，四川黄金（001337）涨停，成交额20.94亿元，换手率14.55%，盘后龙虎榜数据 显示，深股通专用席位买入1.90亿元并卖出1.01亿元，3家机构专用席位净买入1.02亿元。 ...

湖南黄金公告称，公司拟发行股份购买湖南黄金集团、湖南天岳投资持有的湖南黄金天岳矿业100%股 权，及湖南黄金集团持有的湖南中南黄金冶炼100%股权，并募资配套资金，预计构成重大资产重组和 关联交易。公司股票于2026年1月12日开市起停牌，1月26日开市起复牌。截至公告披露日，交易相关工 作正按计划推进，尚需履行内部决策程序及获监管机构批准，存在不确定性。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

Market Performance - On February 24, A-shares saw all three major indices rise by over 1%, with more than 4,200 stocks gaining [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.17% to 4,129.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.82%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.76% [2] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.52 trillion yuan, with a predicted increase to 2.35 trillion yuan, up by 354.2 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - Resource stocks, particularly oil and gas, led the market rally, with significant gains in companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and CNOOC Services, among others [2] - AI-related stocks experienced a substantial pullback, with companies like Seedance and DeepSeek seeing declines [4] - The film and cinema sector faced a sharp decline, with major players like Light Media and China Film hitting their daily limit down [4] Hardware and Technology - Demand driven by AI has led to strong performance in computing hardware stocks, with companies like Longfly Fiber achieving new historical highs [3] - Other notable gainers in the computing hardware sector included Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang [3] Overall Market Sentiment - The market sentiment was influenced by concerns over Trump's tariff policies and escalating tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the rise in resource cycle stocks [2]