21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 看点一：自营与资管业务如何隔离？交易单元特权时代是否终结？ 1月16日，中国证监会就《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》面向社会公开征求意见。 新规直指衍生品业务的核心风险点，对经营机构的内部治理提出了更为细致的要求。 此次修订在2023年初版草案基础上，充分吸纳了行业反馈，旨在为快速发展的衍生品市场构建一套更为完善、可操作的监管规 则体系。 修订内容直指市场关切的核心领域，不仅明确了业务隔离、穿透监管等关键风险防控要求，也对产品创新与服务实体经济的边 界作出了更清晰的界定。 对于证券公司、期货公司、实体企业及各类专业投资者而言，这份新规意味着其日常的业务运营、风险管理和套期保值策略都 将迎来明确而具体的合规指引，一个更加规范、透明的衍生品市场发展新阶段即将开启。 新规实施后，这种"分仓"操作将暴露在统一的监控之下。监管层能够识别出一个交易群体背后的真实风险总量，从而更有效地 防范市场操纵和过度投机。这要求相关交易者必须重新评估其多市场组合的合规性，风控模型也需要相应升级，将场内外衍生 品头寸进行一体化管理。 看点三：严控"复杂衍生品"，企业套保如何合规避险？ 新规 ...

期权工具具有成本相对较低、策略灵活的特点，为产业企业提供了更加多样的避险选择。多家参与首日 交易的企业对此表示认可。 中铝国际贸易集团有限公司作为贸易型企业，此前已在焦煤期货上积累一定经验，并已经以期货价格为 基础与上游焦煤生产企业签订采购合同。该公司副总经理赵鹏飞表示，焦煤期权上市首日，公司即开展 了焦煤期权交易，以对冲现货价格波动风险。"作为拥有大商所焦煤期货集团交割库的大型贸易商，我 们后续计划利用'交割库+期权保价'的方式开展焦煤现货采购，服务下游焦化厂及钢厂进行风险管理， 助力期货、期权成为连接金融与实体的纽带。" 物产中大集团有限公司是我国焦煤行业的重要服务商。该公司在首日交易中采取了卖出不同行权价格看 涨与看跌期权的"双卖策略"。公司相关业务负责人彭书科认为，焦煤期权的上市为企业提供了更多时间 价值保值与结构化风险管理机会。近年来焦煤价格波动较大，企业可借助宽跨式期权策略锁定采购成 本，通过双卖策略提前锁定远期售价并降低现货库存成本。 彭书科进一步表示"焦煤期权为持有期货或现货的企业提供了多维度的风险管理方案，尤其是在市场方 向不明、波动加剧时更具优势。期权的非线性损益特征可支持更精准、多元的对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a correction, with a maximum daily decline of nearly 2%, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [2][7]. Macroeconomic Summary - As of January 10, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 198,000, significantly below market expectations of 215,000 and the previous value of 208,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [2][7]. - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January has decreased to around 5%, as the Kansas City Fed President stated there is currently no reason to lower rates, which could hinder progress in controlling inflation and negatively impact the labor market [2][7]. Market Dynamics - Trump's announcement to temporarily refrain from imposing tariffs on key minerals like copper has reduced the risk premium previously associated with copper prices, weakening short-term upward price momentum [2][7]. - The geopolitical situation between the U.S. and Iran, along with volatility in precious metals, is contributing to instability in high copper prices [2][7]. Domestic Market Conditions - Continuous registration of copper stocks in both domestic and international markets indicates pressure from domestic hedging funds, suggesting a weakening of the domestic fundamental outlook during the off-season [2][7]. - If there are no new reductions in supply, there is an expectation of price adjustments for copper at current high levels [2][7]. Supply Chain Insights - Domestic TC (treatment and refining charges) quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining a tight supply sentiment, which serves as a strong fundamental support factor [2][7]. - Ongoing negotiations regarding the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile have failed, leading to continued strikes that heighten market concerns over supply tightness [2][7]. - Long-term supply tightness issues persist, necessitating cautious attention to recent market fluctuations [2][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in nickel prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, with the main contract for nickel futures reported at 144,410.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.42% increase [1] Group 2 - On the macro level, the article notes a significant trend of de-globalization and frequent geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general increase in "strategic reserve" metals [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry specifics, Indonesia has drastically reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 by approximately 34%, and 50 nickel mines are facing potential fines for illegal land use [1] Group 4 - Regarding demand, the announcement from two departments to gradually lower and eliminate the VAT refund for battery product exports is expected to positively impact nickel demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, the article indicates that strong policy expectations from Indonesia are driving prices upward, with a projected quota of 260 million tons for 2026 against an estimated demand of over 320 million tons, suggesting a strong expectation of overall nickel supply shortage [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance for the asphalt industry. It recommends going long on the BU main contract on dips, and taking long positions on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market is strengthening, providing solid support to the cost side of asphalt. Although the rigid demand for asphalt is weak, supply is also restricted, leading to tight local asphalt spot circulation. The BU futures price has shifted to a sideways trend after pricing in the expected tightening of Venezuelan oil supply. With the escalation of the situation in South America and rising benchmark oil prices due to the Iran situation, the cost - side support for asphalt remains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 14, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 203,327 lots, down 4,581 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 199,146 lots, down 81,301 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,040 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in North China and Shandong have increased, while those in other regions have remained stable [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. Go long on the BU main contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [2].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals like gold and silver continue to perform well into 2026, reaching new highs, prompting the CME to adjust margin requirements to curb speculative trading [2][4][12]. Margin Adjustments - CME has changed the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, effective January 13 [2][12]. - For gold, the initial margin requirement is now set at 5%, resulting in a margin of $23,000 for a standard contract, slightly lower than the previous fixed amount of $24,000 [2][12]. - For silver, the margin requirement has increased to 9%, leading to an initial margin of $38,700 for a standard contract, significantly higher than the previous fixed amount of $32,500 [4][14]. Market Reactions - Despite the margin adjustments, silver prices have surpassed $88, and gold remains above $4,600, indicating strong market demand [4][14]. - Historical trends suggest that frequent margin adjustments by exchanges may signal the nearing end of a bullish phase in the market [4][14]. Bitcoin Developments - Bitcoin has surpassed $95,000, marking a two-month high, with significant purchases by Strategy, which acquired 13,627 bitcoins valued at approximately $1.25 billion [4][14]. - This acquisition has led to a rise in the company's total bitcoin holdings, estimated to exceed $60 billion, positively impacting its stock price [4][14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. December CPI remained stable at 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.6%, aligning with expectations and limiting the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts [5][15]. - Market expectations indicate a 97% probability that the Fed will maintain current rates in January, supporting the dollar's strength [5][15].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,540 yuan, while London copper slightly retreated to 13,142 USD [3][13] - The core CPI in the US for December 2025 was 2.6%, lower than expected, leading to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which limits expectations for interest rate cuts [4][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 5,505 tons to 122,100 tons, while LME copper inventories rose by 4,325 tons to 141,500 tons [4][14] - Chile's copper exports to China in December 2025 were approximately 751,000 tons, showing a month-on-month improvement but still relatively low [4][14] - Market sentiment is currently warm, supported by strong fundamentals and pre-holiday stocking, with expectations for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices continue to operate at high levels due to uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies [4][14] - The Indonesian government is currently calculating the 2026 RKAB quota, aiming to match supply and demand, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns [4][14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile until Indonesian policies are clarified, with the Shanghai nickel reference range set between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [4][14] Group 3: Silicon and Aluminum - The price of polysilicon remains low due to a decline in market sentiment, with global production expected to drop to around 110,000 tons in January [5][15] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic downstream may temporarily benefit exports, but the impact on polysilicon demand is expected to be limited [5][15] - Aluminum prices are under pressure, with the 05 contract experiencing a significant drop and overall supply remaining excessive at around 96 million tons [5][15] - The 05 aluminum contract is expected to operate within a range of 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [5][15] Group 4: Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with domestic TC prices stabilizing around 1,100 yuan, while the willingness to accept prices below 1,000 yuan is low [7][17] - The lead market is experiencing a slight recovery in supply due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans, although demand remains weak [8][18] - The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [8][18] Group 5: Precious Metals - The US December CPI data met expectations, leading to a slowdown in the upward momentum of precious metals, with only silver continuing to perform strongly [9][19] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly with rising tensions between the US and Iran, and ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][19] - The market is awaiting further guidance on tariffs and geopolitical developments, with current precious metal prices at high levels and significant volatility expected [9][19]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Industry Service Alliance Conference in Zhengzhou focused on enhancing the futures industry's service to the real economy, addressing challenges in differentiation, digital transformation, compliance, and talent cultivation [1] Group 1: Service to the Real Economy - The futures market's core mission is to serve the real economy, but challenges such as cognitive differences, insufficient tools, and a lack of professional talent hinder effective service [2] - A multi-layered risk management service system is needed, requiring collaboration among regulatory bodies, exchanges, futures companies, and real enterprises [2] - Large state-owned enterprises prioritize compliance and precision in service, with training and simulations improving understanding of hedging in industries like steel [2] Group 2: Differentiation and Development - Differentiation is crucial for futures companies to overcome competition and achieve high-quality development [3] - Futures companies should focus on their backgrounds: industry-focused firms should deepen service in the supply chain, while those with brokerage backgrounds should integrate investment research with AI [3] - The asset management business needs to overcome challenges in product management, fundraising, and research support to avoid homogenization [3] Group 3: Digital Transformation - Digital transformation is essential for enhancing service efficiency, with AI and big data as key drivers [5] - Companies are developing intelligent systems based on AI to improve efficiency without replacing human roles [6] - Regulatory clarity on financial technology is necessary to support innovation while ensuring risk control [6] Group 4: Talent Support - Talent shortages are a significant barrier to the futures industry's development, necessitating partnerships between companies and educational institutions to enhance talent supply [8] - A scientific incentive system is recommended to retain talent and enhance their sense of belonging [8] - Practical empowerment through industry research is essential for young researchers to develop their professional skills [9] Group 5: Compliance and Ecosystem Building - The future of compliance in the securities and futures industry will shift towards a dual accountability model for companies and individuals [7] - Building a diverse cooperation ecosystem involving banks, insurance, and private equity is vital for long-term development [7] - The industry should focus on customer needs to create a service ecosystem that enhances financial literacy and market understanding [7] Group 6: Summary and Future Directions - The conference highlighted the importance of serving the real economy, with a focus on optimizing tools, addressing funding constraints, and enhancing talent supply [10] - Differentiation and asset management transformation are key paths for futures companies, with knowledge-based services emerging as growth points [10] - The Industry Service Alliance aims to foster collaboration across institutions and fields to support the futures industry's long-term development [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, driven by factors such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][5][7]. Price Movements - As of January 12, gold spot and futures prices surpassed $4600 per ounce, with spot gold at $4584.725 (up 1.68%) and COMEX futures at $4597.6 (up 2.15%) [1][2]. - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver reaching $84.059 (up 5.38%) and COMEX silver at $83.91 (up 5.76%) [1][2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a record high of 1031.3 yuan per gram, closing at 1026.28 yuan (up 2.57%), while silver futures reached 20998 yuan per kilogram (up 14.42%) [1]. Market Dynamics - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has increased demand for safe-haven assets [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny due to ongoing investigations, which may impact market expectations regarding monetary policy [5][7]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the latest data showing that domestic gold reserves reached approximately 2306.323 tons, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [5]. - Analysts suggest that if central banks increase their gold reserves by just 1%, it could push gold prices up by about $1000 [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals, with expectations that the current upward trend will continue, particularly in light of the political uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target for Q4 2026 to $4800, indicating strong confidence in gold's long-term value [7].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with nickel futures prices rising to 142,570.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.45% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, domestic nickel iron prices have increased to approximately 958 yuan/nickel point, with iron mills experiencing reduced losses and some regions returning to profitability, while overall production remains low [2] - Demand analysis indicates that the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, improving steel mill profits and leading to expectations of high production levels; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a slight increase in demand from ternary batteries [2] - As of January 9, 2026, nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 122,600 wet tons to 13,197,700 wet tons, reflecting a decline of 0.92% [2] Group 3 - The outlook for nickel indicates a mix of weak fundamentals and strong expectations, with no tightening of supply at the mining level; although prices at the smelting end are strengthening, demand is currently in a low season, and uncertainties in policy remain, leading to a slight recovery in nickel prices driven by improved market sentiment [2]