南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月8日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 263520 | 245000-263000 | 11.01% | 13.9% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2509C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 | ...

南华期货（603093）公告，美国时间2025年7月7日，公司境外全资孙公司Nanhua USA LLC收到芝加哥 期权交易所清算所的通知，获批成为Cboe clear清算会员，具备其清算资格，可以清算Cboe clear上市的 期货期权和相关产品。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年7月8日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79270 | 73000-80000 | 9.97% | 13.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2509C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力 ...

Core Insights - WTI crude oil futures for August settled at $67.93 per barrel [1] - NYMEX natural gas futures for August closed at $3.4120 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX gasoline futures for August ended at $2.1522 per gallon, while heating oil futures for August settled at $2.4211 per gallon [1]

双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.00% | 60.43% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 24.12% | 44.76% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/07 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, with continuous supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs during the wet season, while downstream demand is weak. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the industry still faces significant adjustment pressure [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market in the second half of the year is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, supply may increase due to lower costs, while demand is limited, and high inventory persists. The "anti - involution" logic offers potential for improvement if effective industry integration occurs [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon main contract is 7600 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.6%, a daily decline of 0.99%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 94.8%. The main contract's closing price is 8045 yuan/ton, up 0.81% from the previous period, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest [2][9]. - **Spread**: The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 7.69% from the previous period, and the SI11 - 12 spread is - 325 yuan/ton, up 2.99% [11]. - **Spot Data** - **Prices**: The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions show little change, except for a 1.05% decline in Sichuan's 421 silicon. The spread between 421 and 553 in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as N - type polysilicon, granular silicon, DMC, and SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 are presented in the report [15]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - **Basis**: The basis of East China's 421 and 553 industrial silicon main contracts has decreased. The 421 basis is 1005 yuan/ton, down 6.07%, and the 553 basis is 705 yuan/ton, down 8.44% [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 51349 lots, a decrease of 352 lots. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows various changes [20]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the polysilicon main contract is 33000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.90%, a daily increase of 0.57%, and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 84.12%. The main contract's closing price is 36515 yuan/ton, up 2.83% from the previous period, with changes in trading volume and open interest [2][23]. - **Spread**: The PS08 - 09 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 71.43% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, down 63.25%; and the PS09 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 49.18% [25]. - **Spot Data** - **Prices**: The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as N - type, cauliflower, and dense materials, show no daily change. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also remain stable [30][32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - **Basis**: The basis of the polysilicon main contract and other contracts has decreased significantly. The main contract's basis is - 915 yuan/ton, down 1116.67% [38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) using SI2509/PS2509 and over - the - counter/on - exchange options. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also suggested [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy long - term futures contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2].

金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.07） 日内观点：窄幅震荡，交易盘持币待涨 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：卖出 MO2507-P-5800 虚值看跌期权择机离场，IM2507 多单谨慎持有 核心逻辑： 1.海外关税风险重新升温，美国总统特朗普表示将致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单 边关税税率，从 8 月 1 日开始生效概率极高。美国政府直接设定新的"对等关税"， 再度增加了急于签署贸易协议的国家或地区的贸易政策风险。 2.政策方面，基本面回归偏弱现实，政策提振内需预期逐步兑现。央行等六部 门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，支持政策提前落地。随 后，国家发展改革委表示将于今年 7 月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。国 常会定调，进一步强化企业科技创新主体地位，强调以"十年磨一剑"的坚定决心， 加快推进高水平科技自立自强，进一步提振权益市场。 3.技术形态看，金融股引领大盘突破，市场确立新一轮攻势，上证指数挑战 3500 整数关口遇挫后小幅休整。综合当前市场表现，指数大概率仍处于多头周期中。全 市场风险偏提升，军工、银行、券商、TMT ...

Core Points - National Investment Corporation (国投资本) has undergone significant leadership changes, with General Manager Lu Jun resigning on July 2, 2024, and Chairman Cui Hongqin taking over his responsibilities temporarily [2][3] - The company has four major financial segments: securities, trust, fund, and futures, with National Investment Securities (国投证券) reversing a two-year profit decline due to strong proprietary trading performance [2][11] - The trust and futures segments continue to face profit declines, while the fund business is experiencing both scale and performance pressures [2][11] Leadership Changes - Lu Jun, who served as General Manager for only 1 year and 2 months, has left for a work transfer, and Cui Hongqin has been elected as the new Chairman [3][24] - Cui Hongqin has extensive financial management experience and previously held various senior positions within the National Development Investment Group [3][24] - The former Chairman, Duan Wenwu, has transitioned to a role at China Minmetals and is expected to resign from his position as Chairman of National Investment Securities soon [5][24] Business Performance - National Investment Securities reported a revenue of 10.78 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.95% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, up 30.49% [11][23] - The significant profit increase is attributed to a remarkable 834.62% rise in proprietary trading income, while other business segments like brokerage and asset management saw declines [11][12] - The overall revenue for National Investment Corporation in 2024 was 15.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.76%, marking the lowest level in four years [23] Segment Analysis - National Investment Securities accounts for over 71.62% of National Investment Corporation's revenue, highlighting its critical role in the overall business [11][23] - The trust segment, National Investment Taikang Trust, reported a revenue decline of 22.17% to 1.466 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 29.75% [16][23] - National Investment Futures has faced a continuous decline in net profit for three consecutive years, with a reported net profit of 215 million yuan in 2024, down 15.69% [20][21] Market Environment - The performance of National Investment Corporation's various segments reflects the broader market conditions, with the securities sector benefiting from a recovering market while trust and futures face challenges [23][24] - The recent leadership changes may impact the company's strategic direction and operational stability, raising concerns about team cohesion and market confidence [23][24]

2025/07/03 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 32.77% | 85.0% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 20.98% | 19.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高， | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | FG250 9 | 卖出 | 50% | 1050 | | 璃 | 管理 ...