Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver. The strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially increasing the selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds and widening the spread between long - and short - term yields. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect has intensified. In the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. The issuance of new 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds on August 22 may trigger a switch of the CTD bonds for far - month contracts under the policy of levying VAT on interest from interest - rate bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the inter - period spread brought by the issuance of new bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market a. Futures Prices and Volumes - T主力收盘价108.000，环比上涨0.06%，成交量63938，环比增加11704；TF主力收盘价105.450，环比上涨0.06%，成交量38506，环比减少16805；TS主力收盘价102.326，环比持平，成交量36357，环比增加5932；TL主力收盘价116.110，环比上涨0.34%，成交量62804，环比减少37112 [2] b. Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.05 to - 0.46, while the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.42 to - 8.11 [2] c. Futures Positions - T主力持仓量57904，环比减少11640；TF主力持仓量50434，环比减少12248；TS主力持仓量35544，环比减少7131；TL主力持仓量40766，环比减少7308. The net short positions of different contracts also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Bond Market a. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a decline, such as 2500802.IB (6y) dropping to 98.8632, a decrease of 0.1253 [2] b. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities changed, with the yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y increasing by 0.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.75bp, and 1.40bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] c. Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight decreased, while the silver - pledged 14 - day rate remained unchanged [2] d. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3. Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 2530 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1287 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 4. Industry News - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5%. The August LPR quotation remained stable. The yields of treasury bonds strengthened on Thursday, and the treasury futures also showed an upward trend. Domestically, economic data in July showed a mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish monetary policy [2] 5. Key Events to Watch - On August 21 at 21:00, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was to be released. On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 14th "Shanghai Financial Talent" selection has been launched, emphasizing the importance of a strong financial talent pool for building a financial powerhouse [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The selection attracted nearly 100 financial professionals, with three awards established: "Annual Person of the Shanghai International Financial Center Construction," "Leading Figures in Shanghai's Financial Industry," and "Innovative Figures in Shanghai's Financial Industry" [1] - Participants must be from licensed financial institutions and have worked full-time in Shanghai for at least two years [1] Group 2: Talent Characteristics - The candidates exhibit three distinct characteristics: broad coverage across traditional and emerging financial sectors, international representation including foreign financial professionals, and strong innovation capabilities in areas like green finance and digital finance [2] - The selection process combines self-nomination, committee recommendations, media reviews, online voting, and expert evaluations, with results to be announced in September 2025 [2] Group 3: Historical Context - The "Shanghai Financial Talent" selection has been held for thirteen consecutive years, with over 200 financial talents recognized, significantly enhancing Shanghai's international financial center's soft power and cultural atmosphere [2]

2024年9月27日上午，由国富期货有限公司主办的"防范非法期货及甲醇期货知识培训会"——"郑商所 2024年度投资者教育专项活动"线上专场顺利举办。本次活动特邀大连海大益乐教育科技有限公司法务 主管赵子朋老师与杭州亿嘉柏和投资管理有限公司基金经理金杰老师担任主讲，围绕非法期货识别防范 和甲醇期货基本面分析，为投资者带来实用知识与风险提示。 赵子朋老师系统讲解了非法期货交易的定义、典型特征与严重危害，结合真实案例揭示了虚假宣传、市 场操纵等常见欺诈手法。他建议投资者增强自我保护意识，理性判断、审慎决策，不轻信"高收益"承 诺，并通过持续学习法律法规、关注监管动态提升辨识能力。他还介绍了监管部门在立法完善、执法强 化与投资者教育等方面的重要举措，强调了健全适当性管理、补偿机制等投资者权益保护措施的必要 性。 金杰老师聚焦甲醇期货品种特性与市场分析框架，指出我国甲醇生产以煤炭为主要原料，因此与焦煤、 焦炭价格关联密切。他从供需两端解析甲醇市场：供应端需关注煤制成本变动和进口情况（进口依赖度 约15%），需求端重点跟踪MTO装置（甲醇制烯烃）开工状况，特别是华东沿海地区运行情况，因其 占下游需求一半以上。此外，他强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles discuss the potential for gold prices to rise due to various factors, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and strong demand for gold from central banks and ETFs. However, there are also warnings about the possibility of gold prices weakening in the short term due to market volatility and mixed signals from the Fed [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate a division among decision-makers regarding inflation and employment risks, which may influence future interest rate decisions [1] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a new driving force for gold prices, especially following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data [2] - Market participants are cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, with a focus on how the Fed's stance on interest rates may impact gold prices [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical developments, including Trump's comments on U.S.-Russia-Ukraine relations and a new ceasefire agreement involving Hamas, are contributing to a reduction in market risk aversion [1] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and "anti-globalization" is viewed as beneficial for gold's investment and hedging value [2][4] Group 3: Gold Price Predictions - MKS PAMP has adjusted its average gold price forecast for the year to approximately $3,200 per ounce, with an expectation that prices could reach $3,600 per ounce by year-end [4] - UBS has raised its gold price forecast for the second quarter of 2026 to $3,600 per ounce, citing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand as key factors [5] - The global demand for gold is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, reaching 4,760 metric tons, marking the highest level since 2011 [6]

Group 1 - The 14th "Shanghai Financial Talent" selection has commenced, with media evaluation involving 50 mainstream and professional financial journalists voting on candidates [1] - This year's selection features three awards: "Annual Person of the Shanghai International Financial Center Construction," "Leading Figures in Shanghai's Financial Industry," and "Innovative Figures in Shanghai's Financial Industry," with candidates required to be from licensed financial institutions and have worked full-time in Shanghai for at least two years [1][2] - The selection process includes self-nomination, committee nominations, media evaluation, online voting, and expert reviews, with results to be announced in September 2025 [3] Group 2 - A strong financial talent pool is identified as a key element for a financial powerhouse, with the revised 2024 "Shanghai International Financial Center Construction Regulations" emphasizing the need for policies that support financial talent development and evaluation [2] - Nearly 100 financial professionals have registered for this year's selection, showcasing a broad representation across traditional sectors like banking, securities, and insurance, as well as emerging fields such as green finance and financial information [2] - The candidates exhibit international diversity, including foreign financial professionals and those with extensive overseas experience, contributing to initiatives like the Belt and Road and cross-border financial infrastructure [2] Group 3 - The event is organized by several prominent institutions, including the China Economic Information Service and Xinhua News Agency, with support from various financial regulatory bodies and organizations [4] - The selection has been held for thirteen consecutive years, with over 200 financial talents recognized, enhancing Shanghai's international financial center's soft power and cultural atmosphere [3]

Core Insights - The evolution of the polyester industry in China is closely linked with the development of the futures market, transitioning from a "price taker" to a "rule maker" [2] - The recognition of futures as essential tools for polyester enterprises highlights their role in risk management and market insight [1][2] - The upcoming decade is expected to see rapid innovation in the futures market, with new products and tools emerging to address complex market challenges [2] Group 1 - The personal journey of a company executive reflects the broader growth of the polyester industry alongside the futures market [1] - Futures are not just for price discovery and hedging; they embody responsibility, wisdom, and trust within the industry [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is actively promoting the opening of polyester-related futures and options, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic enterprises [2] Group 2 - The future of the polyester industry is anticipated to be more stable and prosperous through collaboration with the futures market [3] - The importance of continuous learning and respect for market dynamics is emphasized for companies navigating future challenges [2]

A06 资管时代·期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on how the futures market can empower the real economy and contribute to national development, emphasizing high-quality development practices and opportunities in the futures market [1][5]. Group 1: Futures Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that there are currently 131 listed commodity futures and options in the Chinese futures market, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in average daily trading volume for industrial clients in 2024 [3]. - The number of listed companies participating in hedging has increased for 11 consecutive years, indicating a growing integration of futures prices into the operational management of physical enterprises [3]. - The CSRC plans to promote the listing of important energy products like liquefied natural gas and expand the commodity index system to enhance the futures market's openness [3]. Group 2: Regional Support and Policy Initiatives - The Henan Provincial Financial Office has introduced various policies to support the high-quality development of the futures market, focusing on innovation and resource aggregation [3]. - Zhengzhou is positioning itself as a key hub for connecting domestic and international bulk commodity markets, with plans to support the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in launching more futures and options products [3][4]. - The ZCE aims to optimize market supply and enhance its service capabilities while expanding its high-level openness to build a world-class exchange [4][5]. Group 3: Practical Applications and Industry Feedback - The forum included discussions on various sub-forums, such as risk management for industrial enterprises and agricultural products, highlighting the practical applications of futures in different sectors [5]. - A representative from a grain and oil enterprise noted that the "futures + spot" model has significantly reduced risk management costs, expressing a desire for more region-specific products to provide precise risk management tools for small and medium-sized enterprises [5].

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum was officially held on August 20, co-hosted by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group [1] - Zhengzhou is becoming an important hub linking domestic and international bulk commodity markets, with strong momentum in pricing to support global industrial and supply chains [1] - The city aims to build a modern financial service system that adapts to the new development stage, providing robust financial service guarantees for the modernization of national central cities [1] Group 2 - Zhengzhou will continue to strengthen cooperation with Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, supporting the launch of more futures and options varieties [1] - The city is accelerating its internationalization process to enhance the global influence of Zhengzhou prices [1] - The platform aims to better serve global resource allocation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasized the importance of an open futures market in enhancing China's global price influence on major commodities and reducing cross-border transaction costs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Opening and Internationalization - China's futures market has made significant progress in internationalization, with improved rules facilitating foreign participation [2][3]. - The China Futures Association proposed to expand the variety of futures products available for foreign investors, focusing on mature and controllable options [2][3]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has opened 17 futures options to Qualified Foreign Investors (QFI), ranking second in the country for the number of open products [3]. Group 2: Risk Management and Market Stability - The increasing market volatility highlights the need for effective risk management strategies, especially in uncertain times [3]. - The collaboration between China's futures market and global derivatives markets aims to meet the complex risk management needs of various institutions [3]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives and Future Outlook - The roundtable discussion revealed a consensus that market openness is essential for enhancing resource allocation efficiency and stabilizing global supply chains [4]. - Stakeholders from regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry representatives discussed pathways and prospects for further opening the futures industry [4].