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证监会宣布优化合格境外投资者制度,欢迎国际长期资本投资中国
Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Li Ming, at the 2025 International Financial Leaders Investment Summit emphasized China's commitment to deepening institutional openness in its capital markets and introduced a series of new measures aimed at enhancing cross-border investment and cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Key Measures for Capital Market Openness - The first major initiative is to enhance the convenience of cross-border investment and financing. The CSRC has launched an optimization plan for the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, focusing on improving access management, investment efficiency, and support services for foreign investors [3]. - The second initiative involves deepening practical cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, including improving the efficiency of overseas listing filings and expanding the scope of stocks eligible for the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programs [4]. - The CSRC is also supporting Hong Kong in launching government bond futures to enrich offshore RMB risk management tools, aiming to strengthen Hong Kong's position as an international financial center [5]. Group 2: Strengthening Regulatory Capacity and Risk Prevention - Alongside promoting openness, the CSRC will enhance regulatory capacity and risk prevention, emphasizing a balanced approach to development and security. This includes strengthening cross-border regulatory cooperation with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [6]. - The CSRC aims to establish a regulatory mechanism that includes information sharing, policy consultation, and coordinated response to risks, ensuring effective monitoring of capital flows to prevent cross-border risk transmission [6]. Group 3: Achievements and Future Outlook - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, significant achievements in capital market openness were noted, including the complete removal of foreign ownership limits for securities, fund, and futures institutions, attracting more foreign financial institutions to operate in China [7]. - The optimization of the overseas listing regulatory framework has facilitated 269 companies to successfully list abroad in the past five years, with foreign investors currently holding A-shares valued at 3.4 trillion yuan [7]. - Looking ahead, Li Ming proposed three cooperation initiatives for international financial institutions: becoming "discoverers of investment value," "contributors to reform and development," and "maintainers of market stability," encouraging international institutions to engage in the Chinese market [8].
国债期货日报-20251104
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 09:15
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy operations. It maintains a bullish view on the medium - term, advising to hold long - term positions and wait for buying opportunities on market pullbacks [1][3] Group 3: Market Conditions 1. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, TS and TF continued to adjust, T and TL remained volatile. TL slightly rose, while the others slightly declined. TS2512 was at 102.494 (-0.016), TF2512 at 106.015 (-0.03), T2512 at 108.635 (-0.02), and TL2512 at 116.52 (+0.04) [1][4] 2. Position and Trading Volume - TS contract positions decreased by 347 to 83,306, TF decreased by 645 to 179,279, T increased by 2,275 to 290,431, and TL decreased by 885 to 178,880. TS main contract trading volume decreased by 5,311 to 19,329, TF decreased by 2,173 to 50,509, T increased by 933 to 66,835, and TL decreased by 11,856 to 86,971 [4] 3. Basis - TS basis (CTD) was -0.0397 (+0.009), TF basis (CTD) was -0.0523 (+0.0093), T basis (CTD) was -0.0002 (-0.124), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.2246 (+0.2307) [4] Group 4: Important Information - Lan Fo'an stated that not adding implicit debt should be regarded as an "iron - clad discipline". US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend the Supreme Court's oral argument on the legality of Trump's tariffs, emphasizing it as a "national security matter" [2] Group 5: Market Outlook - The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, but the bond market's gains were limited. Long - term bonds basically maintained a volatile pattern. In the short term, there is a lack of trading hotspots. Attention should be paid to the central bank's monthly liquidity release announcement. If there is no bond purchase for the time being, buying opportunities can be grasped during market pullbacks [3] Group 6: Other Data - The funds were loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.75 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 35.78 billion yuan [1]
南华贵金属日报:黄金、白银:延续震荡整理-20251104
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 08:39
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to add positions on dips, and those with existing long positions should continue to hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Condition - On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated and consolidated. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, the U.S. stock market continued to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin fell, crude oil fluctuated, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also fluctuated as a whole [2]. - The final settlement price of the COMEX gold 2512 contract was $4013.4 per ounce, down 0.06%; the U.S. silver 2512 contract settled at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.75%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 922.58 yuan per gram, up 0.47%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations cooled slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 32.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3% [3]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1041.78 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15189.82 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.7 tons to 658.9 tons per day; as of the week of October 24, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the U.S. non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening. There will also be data such as ISM manufacturing and services PMI and ADP small non - farm data released during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the U.S. government shutdown will delay data releases [4]. - In terms of events, on Thursday at 08:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches [4]. 3.4 Price Ranges - The resistance level for London gold is 4050 - 4100, the support level is 3900, and the strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area; for silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, the support is 47.5, and the strong support is 45.5 [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The report also provides data on precious metal futures and spot prices, inventory and position data, and stock, bond, and commodity market data, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, crude oil, and U.S. Treasury yields [5][13][15][19].
贵金属数据日报-20251104
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 06:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and are likely to further stabilize. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [5] - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the unsustainable US debt and intensifying great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With central banks' gold purchases continuing, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **15 - point price tracking of internal and external gold and silver on November 3, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4017.06 per ounce, London silver spot at $48.86 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4028.00 per ounce, COMEX silver at $48.58 per ounce, AU2512 at 922.58 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 11455 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 919.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 11424 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the price changes were 0.2%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [4] - **15 - point price tracking of spreads and ratios on November 3, 2025**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 31 yuan per kilogram, gold internal - external (TD - London) spread was 4.32 yuan per gram, silver internal - external (TD - London) spread was - 1022 yuan per kilogram, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 80.54, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 82.91, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.82 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 24 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the changes were - 5.4%, - 38.0%, - 10.8%, - 7.8%, - 0.1%, 0.2%, - 7.8%, and - 4.0% respectively [4] 3.2 Position Data - **As of October 31, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1039.2 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15189.81735 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 266749 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52276 contracts. Compared with October 30, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.00%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 87816.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 658851.00 kilograms. As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38168047 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 482438705 troy ounces. Compared with the previous period, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.01%, - 0.20%, and - 0.14% respectively [4] 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09. As of October 31, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.73, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, VIX was 17.44, the S&P 500 was 6840.20, and NYMEX crude oil was $60.88 per barrel. Compared with the previous period, the changes were - 0.02%, 0.19%, - 0.28%, 0.00%, 3.13%, 0.26%, and 0.98% respectively [4] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market review**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.47% to 922.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.39% to 11455 yuan per kilogram [4] - **Analysis and short - term outlook**: The new gold tax policy mainly aims to standardize the gold market, strengthen tax supervision, and has limited impact on prices. With factors such as decreased market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown, precious metal prices are in a range - bound oscillation. However, the divergence within the Fed on a December rate cut and the strong US dollar index will suppress the short - term upside of precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and may further stabilize [5] - **Medium - and long - term outlook**: In the long run, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainties, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251104
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In November, the corn harvest is gradually ending, and the first - round selling pressure peak of new grain has passed. Corn prices first declined and then rebounded, showing stronger resilience. The performance varies by region: the Northeast region is supported by state - reserve purchases, and prices have stabilized after falling in mid - and early - October; the North China region has recovered from the impact of rainfall in October, and prices have risen as the selling pressure has weakened. Recently, the number of trucks arriving in Shandong has decreased, and enterprises have continuously raised purchase prices. The atmosphere in the corn spot market has gradually stabilized, and the selling pressure has become more dispersed, alleviating price pressure. In the past two days, the spot and futures prices of corn have risen in resonance, and the market atmosphere has improved. The starch market has shown a slightly stronger upward trend than the corn market [1]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting corn prices. Positive factors include the dispersion of selling pressure, support from state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, the比价 effect of rising soybean prices, and the unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November, which has increased market bullish sentiment. Negative factors include the continuous decline in pig prices and the potential impact on long - term corn feed demand, as well as the potential for concentrated selling pressure when late - harvested corn is listed in mid - and early - November [2][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.47% and a volatility percentile of 55.3%. For starch, the monthly price range forecast is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.58% and a volatility percentile of 42.10% [2]. Spot Price and Basis - Corn spot prices: Jinzhou Port is at 2150 yuan (up 20 yuan), Shekou Port is at 2250 yuan (up 20 yuan), and Harbin is at 2010 yuan (unchanged). Starch spot prices: Shandong is at 2750 yuan (up 10 yuan), Jilin is at 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is at 2450 yuan (down 10 yuan). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract for corn is 9 yuan (up 9 yuan), and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract for starch is 297 yuan (down 3 yuan) [2]. Futures Price Changes - Corn futures: Contracts from 11 to 09 have different degrees of price increases, with the largest increase of 24 yuan (1.14%) in the corn 11 contract and the smallest increase of 0 yuan (0.00%) in the corn 09 contract. Starch futures: Contracts from 11 to 09 also show price increases, with the largest increase of 18 yuan (0.75%) in the corn starch 11 contract and the smallest increase of 6 yuan (0.23%) in the corn starch 07 contract [5]. Seasonal Data - The report presents multiple seasonal data, including corn futures monthly spreads (such as 01 - 05, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05), starch futures monthly spreads (such as 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05), the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract for corn, the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract for starch, the difference between starch and corn prices for the 01 contract, the weekly inventory of major deep - processing enterprises in China, the available inventory days of Chinese corn feed enterprises, the closing price of CBOT corn, and the import price and profit of US corn [6][14][28]. International Market Data - In the international market, CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher on Monday, supported by good export inspection data and the continued rise of soybeans. The prices of CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main - continuous contracts all increased, with the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract having the largest increase of 2.06%. The import prices of US corn from the Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast have also increased slightly, and both have import profits [1][29].
国债期货日报-20251103
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:58
国债期货日报 2025/11/3 徐晨曦(投资咨询证号:Z0001908) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 观点:关注央行政策操作 盘面点评: 周一期债整体下跌,TS跌幅较为显著,其余品种震荡微跌。资金面宽松,DR001在1.31%附近。公开市场逆 回购783亿,净回笼2590亿。 重要资讯: 1.潘功胜:研究和储备应对宏观经济、金融市场波动等领域的政策工具;持续整治金融业"内卷式"竞争、资金 空转;不断增强央行政策利率的作用,收窄短期利率走廊的宽度。 2.证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引(征求意见稿)》,基金业协会同步发布《公开募集 证券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则(征求意见稿)》。 行情研判: 今日股债继续独立运行,午后A股回升未对债市造成影响。目前债市对央行购债基本定价完毕,消息面较为清 淡导致短期缺乏交易热点。关注随后发布的经济数据是否带来一定的交易动力。操作上维持多头思路,中期 多单继续持有,短期不追高,等待回落做多。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今 ...
贵金属数据日报-20251103
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 06:31
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities by buying on dips after stabilization [6]. - Medium - to long - term, due to factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue rising. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 31, 2025, compared with October 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.9%, London silver spot rose 2.6%, COMEX gold rose 0.9%, COMEX silver rose 2.1%, AU2512 rose 1.1%, AG2512 rose 1.7%, AU (T + D) rose 1.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 1.6% [5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios, from October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 16.3%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 33.8%, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 12.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.2%, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 10.1%, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 4.2% [5]. 2. Position Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11%, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85%, COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97%, COMEX silver non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% [5]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.41%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.20%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.14% [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.19%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the VIX increased by 3.13%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.26%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.98% [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 921.92 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.41% to 11441 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - The decline in market risk appetite, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the intensification of local geopolitical situations have led to a recovery in safe - haven demand, boosting the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices. Although Fed Chairman Powell said a December interest - rate cut is far from certain, the market still generally predicts it as the baseline scenario, providing support for the precious metal market. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the strong performance of the US dollar index, the internal differences among Fed officials, and the marginal easing of the US government shutdown, the short - term upward space for a unilateral trend in precious metals may be relatively limited [6]. 7. Medium - to Long - Term Outlook - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely cause the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices to continue rising [6].
东北证券:控股子公司下属公司因操纵期货案被移送起诉
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 11:59
Core Points - Northeast Securities announced that its subsidiary Bohai Futures has been involved in a legal case regarding market manipulation, specifically the "4.7 futures market manipulation case" [1] - The case has been referred to the Shanghai People's Procuratorate for review and prosecution, but the subsidiary's operations remain normal [1] - The company is currently unable to estimate the impact of the case on profits as the case has not yet been adjudicated, and it will continue to disclose updates on the situation [1]
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251031
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 05:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of tight supply of high - protein edible soybeans supports the anti - seasonal price increase. However, with the progress of Sino - US negotiations to resume agricultural product trade, the domestic soybean market is expected to face short - term pressure. The market also needs to pay attention to whether the selling pressure emerges and the behavior changes caused by sentiment fermentation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Prediction and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the bean one 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.37% and a historical percentile of 26.0% [2]. - **Risk Strategies**: - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long positions due to large new - bean selling pressure in autumn or weakened bargaining power during the concentrated listing period, strategies include shorting bean one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100, and selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw - material prices, the strategy is to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are considered after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2]. Core Contradictions and Market Influences - **Likely Positive Factors**: The decrease in the national high - protein soybean yield supports market sentiment, and the uninitiated state - reserve purchase restricts price decline. But the impact of yield reduction is gradually weakening [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations to resume agricultural product trade is negative for the domestic soybean market. Also, as repayment orders are executed, the rigid demand at the procurement end may decline, and there is still a bottleneck in the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans [3]. Market Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 203, - 253, - 173, and - 143 [3]. - **Futures Closing Price**: On October 30, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of bean one contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 decreased by - 0.29%, - 0.24%, - 0.36%, - 0.48%, - 0.41%, and - 0.50% respectively [5].
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251031
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:04
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily on October 31, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - New - season corn harvest is nearing completion in October, with grain sales and circulation peaking. After the concentrated listing in October, the bottom of corn prices is emerging, and the current price is in a consolidation phase with limited upward and downward driving forces [2] - Corn prices in major producing areas remained stable yesterday. In the Northeast, state - reserve purchases signaled price support, curbing the selling sentiment of upstream suppliers and weakening the downward price momentum, while downstream buyers were more active. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, prices were also stable. As the low - quality grain affected by precipitation was gradually sold, the price of high - quality corn remained firm. In the sales areas, arrivals increased, but downstream buyers were cautious, mostly purchasing as needed with weak short - term inventory - building intentions, providing limited price support [2] - On Thursday, the corn futures market oscillated weakly. The main 01 contract closed at 2111 yuan, with slightly increased trading volume and open interest, and 63,966 registered warrants. The starch futures market also weakened, with the main 01 contract closing at 2419 yuan [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The first peak of new - season corn listing has passed, and prices are stabilizing [6] - State - reserve purchases in the Northeast have significantly supported prices, limiting price declines [6] - The reduction of high - quality corn in North China will gradually become apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level. Attention should also be paid to whether the news of the wheat directional auction in November will affect corn prices [3] - The supply level remains high in the fourth quarter, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] - Sino - US negotiations have achieved good progress, and relevant national departments have confirmed that China and the US have reached a consensus on expanding agricultural product trade. Attention should be paid to whether it extends to the corn variety [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Market Data Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.82% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.92% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [4] Spot Price and Basis - In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2130 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 19 yuan (down 5 yuan). In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong is 2740 yuan (unchanged), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract is 321 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Futures Price - For corn futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2101 to 2103 yuan (up 2 yuan, 0.10%), the 01 - contract from 2116 to 2111 yuan (down 5 yuan, - 0.24%), the 03 - contract from 2145 to 2141 yuan (down 4 yuan, - 0.19%), the 05 - contract from 2221 to 2213 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.36%), the 07 - contract from 2244 to 2238 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.27%), and the 09 - contract remained at 2247 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2438 to 2431 yuan (down 7 yuan, - 0.29%), the 01 - contract from 2427 to 2419 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.33%), the 03 - contract from 2438 to 2429 yuan (down 9 yuan, - 0.37%), the 05 - contract from 2540 to 2530 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), the 07 - contract from 2558 to 2548 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), and the 09 - contract from 2590 to 2584 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.23%). The average wheat price rose from 2500 to 2504 yuan (up 4 yuan, 0.16%) [7] US Corn Market - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract was 429.5 (down 5, - 1.15%), COBT soybean main - continuous contract was 1107 (up 13.75, 1.26%), CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was 524.25 (down 9.25, - 1.73%). The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2154.54 yuan (up 5.9, 0.27%) with an import profit of 95.46 yuan, and the duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 2032.78 yuan (up 5.91, 0.29%) with an import profit of 217.22 yuan [30]