Market Overview - On July 21, sectors such as hydropower, Tibet, civil explosives, cement, steel, and water conservancy experienced a collective surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] Event Summary - The opening ceremony for the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held on July 19 in Nyingchi, Tibet, attended by Premier Li Qiang, marking the official commencement of the project [3] - The establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was also announced, aimed at ensuring the smooth construction and operation of the hydropower project [3] Institutional Insights 1) The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project will adopt a straightening and tunnel diversion development approach, constructing five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [4] 2) Major state-owned enterprises in construction and design are expected to benefit significantly, with China Power Construction Corporation handling over 80% of river planning and more than 65% of large and medium-sized hydropower station construction tasks in China [4] 3) Cement demand in Tibet is projected to increase, with an estimated production of 13.1 million tons in 2024 [4] 4) The demand for civil explosives in Tibet is anticipated to rise, with the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream project estimated to require approximately 139,300 tons of explosives [5] 5) The project is expected to have significant investment allocations, with civil engineering costs estimated at 615.7 billion yuan, electromechanical equipment at 307.8 billion yuan, and reservoir compensation fees at 102.6 billion yuan [5]

Group 1 - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation ETF (515600) has shown strong performance, with a 2.21% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.813 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a month [1] - Over the past five years, the ETF's net value has increased by 60.15%, ranking 69th out of 996 index equity funds, placing it in the top 6.93% [1] Group 2 - The CSI Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation Driven Index (000861) evaluates the innovation and profitability of listed central enterprises, selecting 100 representative companies [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 34.87% of the total, including companies like Hikvision and China Southern Power Grid [2] - A significant hydropower project, the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - China Power Construction Corporation has a dominant market share in hydropower engineering, handling over 80% of river planning and more than 65% of large and medium-sized hydropower station construction tasks [3] - China Energy Engineering Corporation has completed over 90% of domestic thermal power design tasks and holds a significant share in hydropower construction [3] - Other central enterprises like China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction are expected to benefit from future hydropower infrastructure projects [3]

Group 1 - The steel sector is experiencing significant gains, with the only ETF tracking the industry, Steel ETF (515210), rising by 3.8% [1][4] - Historical performance shows that Steel ETF (515210) has increased by 11.84% over the past 15 days, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to benefit suppliers of hydropower equipment and core equipment for power grid projects [3][4] Group 2 - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index, which includes publicly listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the steel industry [4] - Investors interested in the steel sector can consider the Steel ETF (515210) or its connecting fund (008190) for investment opportunities [7]

风险提示：如提及个股仅供分析参考，不构成任何投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。提及股票型基金预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。相关股票型基金为指数型基 金，跟踪对应标的指数，其风险收益特征与标的指数所表征的市场组合的风险收益特征相似。提及债券基金预期收益及风险水平低于股票基金、混合基金， 高于货币市场基金。相关债券基金为指数型基金，其风险收益特征与标的指数所表征的市场组合的风险收益特征相似。提及商品型基金主要投资对象为黄金 现货合约，预期风险收益水平与黄金资产相似，不同于股票基金、混合基金、债券基金和货币市场基金。如需购买相关基金产品，请您详阅基金法律文件， 关注投资者适当性管理相关规定，提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（以下简称雅下水电工程）开工仪式在西藏自治区林芝市举行。中国雅江集团有限公司成立大会近日举行， 以保障雅下水电工程顺利建设运营。雅下水电工程 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Yajiang Group and the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project are significant developments that will positively impact the hydropower industry and related sectors in China [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - On July 19, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced the formation of China Yajiang Group, which is now listed as the 22nd central enterprise among 99 in the updated SASAC directory [1]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, located in Nyingchi City, Tibet, involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The ongoing construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to benefit suppliers of hydropower equipment and core components for power grid transmission [2]. - According to Huatai Securities, the estimated total value of the turbine and generator business related to this investment is between 53.5 billion yuan and 95.4 billion yuan, which may become a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [2]. - The current valuations of leading companies in the industry reflect market concerns about the sustainability of orders, but there is potential for recovery as orders exceed expectations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, it is expected that stock index futures will show a strong - biased oscillation, and futures such as alumina, zinc, lithium carbonate, coking coal, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, glass, soda ash, and PVC will oscillate with a strong bias on July 21, 2025 [1][2]. - Multiple policies are being implemented to support economic development, including promoting the stable growth of key industries, encouraging foreign investment, and regulating market competition [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 21, 2025, stock index futures will be strongly - biased oscillating. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4070 and 4100 points and support levels at 4042 and 4030 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 21, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 will likely oscillate weakly [3]. - **Commodity Futures**: Many commodity futures, such as gold, silver, copper, alumina, zinc, etc., are expected to oscillate strongly or with a strong bias on July 21, 2025. For instance, the gold futures main contract AU2510 will likely oscillate strongly with resistance levels at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram and support levels at 776.8 and 773.8 yuan/gram [3]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to relevant trade issues, and multiple departments launched policies to support industrial development, including promoting the stable growth of key industries and regulating the new energy vehicle industry [10][11][12]. - **International News**: There are various international events, such as the G20 meeting, US - related policies (e.g., defense appropriation bill, Fed's potential interest - rate cut), and EU's sanctions on Russia [14][16][17]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 18, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends. For example, IF2509 opened slightly higher and oscillated upwards, closing at 4041.8 points, up 0.91% [23]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 18, 2025, most bond futures contracts closed lower. The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 opened slightly lower, oscillated downwards, and closed at 108.790 yuan, down 0.08% [46]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures had their own trends on July 18, 2025. For example, the silver futures main contract AG2510 opened slightly lower, oscillated upwards, and closed at 9273 yuan/kilogram, up 1.36% [61].

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is significantly boosting the A-share infrastructure sector, leading to a surge in stock prices of related companies. Group 1: Market Reaction - The A-share infrastructure sector experienced a "limit-up" trend, with companies like Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (835174.BJ) hitting a 30% limit-up and others like Jikang Technology (830879.BJ) opening up by 24.29% [1][2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower concept index (886105.TI) surged by 12.52% at the opening [1][2] Group 2: Project Details - The Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, officially commenced on July 19 in Linzhi, Tibet [3][4] - The project involves the construction of five tiered power stations, primarily focusing on power transmission while also catering to local demand in Tibet [3] Group 3: Beneficiary Companies - Companies in the explosives sector, such as Gaozheng Mining Explosives and Yipuli, are expected to benefit from increased demand due to the project [4][5] - China Power Construction Corporation, as a leading player in hydropower, is projected to secure annual project contracts worth approximately 21.8 to 29.1 billion yuan from this project, which could represent 1.7% to 2.3% of its new contract value in 2024 [4][5] - The project is anticipated to create significant opportunities for companies involved in construction, tunneling equipment, and materials, including China Energy Engineering, Iron Construction Heavy Industry, and Tibet Tianlu [5][6]

智通财经7月18日讯（编辑 胡家荣）受超级水电利好消息提振相关个股表现。截至发稿，东方电气(01072.HK)涨48.46%、华新水泥(06655.HK)涨28.34%、华 润建材科技(01313.HK)涨9.04%、中国建材(03323.HK)涨5.96%。 国家级水电工程正式拉开帷幕 东方财富证券报告则聚焦雅鲁藏布江下游丰富的水能资源。报告称，该区域特别是大拐弯段被誉为"世界水能富集之最"，技术可开发资源量近7000万千瓦 (约70吉瓦)，相当于三峡电站装机规模的3倍。目前，雅鲁藏布江中游已规划建设的多个水电站(如藏木、加查等)总装机约400万千瓦(4吉瓦)，平均单位投资 额约为250亿元/吉瓦。 注：东方电气 注：华新水泥 机构看好巨大产业链拉动效应 1.2万亿投资撬动庞大需求空间。国盛证券研报分析指出，该项巨额投资中，工程建设装备投资占比预计至少达15%(约1800亿元)。该行强调，水电工程尤其 依赖中大吨位工程机械，此类设备盈利能力优于小型设备。按设备净利率10%估算，工程机械环节潜在利润空间或超180亿元。 消息面上，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式于7月19日上午在西藏林芝举行。国务院总理李强出席 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, marks a significant step towards carbon neutrality and green economic investment in China [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has a capacity of 70 to 81 million kilowatts, equivalent to five Three Gorges projects, and is expected to generate nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours of zero-carbon electricity annually, meeting the electricity needs of approximately 300 million households [1]. - The project is seen as a "super aircraft carrier" in the energy sector, significantly contributing to energy structure transformation and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Huatai Securities estimates that the total value of turbine and generator business related to the project is between 53.5 billion and 95.4 billion yuan, which could become a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [2]. - The national carbon market is set to expand significantly in 2025, with major industries like steel, cement, and aluminum smelting joining, increasing the covered emissions to approximately 8 billion tons [2]. Group 3: Carbon Neutrality ETF - The Taikang Carbon Neutrality ETF (560560) closely tracks the CSI Mainland Low Carbon Economy Theme Index, which includes companies in clean energy generation, energy conversion and storage, and waste treatment [3]. - The index comprises 50 core enterprises in the low-carbon economy, with leading companies like Yangtze Power and CATL, indicating strong industry representation [3]. - The ETF serves as a bridge for ordinary investors to participate in the carbon neutrality market, allowing them to contribute to climate change efforts while potentially benefiting from the growth of the green economy [3][4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the face of market volatility, investing in the carbon neutrality sector is increasingly seen as a key strategy due to its policy certainty, technological innovation, and market potential [4]. - The Taikang Carbon Neutrality ETF is positioned as an effective investment tool, offering a diversified portfolio that mitigates individual stock risks while capturing leading companies' returns [4].

消息面上，7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程在西藏林芝正式开工。据了解，该工程采用截弯取直、隧洞引水模式，规划建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2 万亿元，电力以对外输送为主、兼顾西藏本地需求。作为国家级超级工程，其开工将推动西藏经济发展与能源结构优化，同时带动民爆、掘进等细分行业需 求增长。 中信证券认为，随着雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程的持续建设，将长期利好水电配套设备、电网外送工程核心设备等头部供应商。中信建投证券称，去年下半年 以来，中央层面多次强调整治"内卷式"竞争，治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出。而目前光伏、锂电均处于盈利底部，其中光伏亏损更为明 显，"反内卷"有望成为推动新能源行业中长期盈利修复的关键推动力。 截至7月18日，央企现代能源ETF近6月净值上涨2.16%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月18日，央企现代能源ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为10.03%，最长 连涨月数为7个月，最长连涨涨幅为23.43%，涨跌月数比为13/10，上涨月份平均收益率为3.05%，年盈利百分比为100.00%，历史持有1年盈利概率为 66.10%。截至2025年7月18日，央企现代能源ETF近3个月超越 ...