Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that credit bond ETFs will continue to attract capital inflows, with a notable recovery in liquidity observed in October [5][8] - The total circulation scale of credit bond ETFs has approached 500 billion yuan, significantly surpassing that of interest rate bond ETFs, reflecting a strong market sentiment [5][8] - The report anticipates that the credit bond ETF's discount rate may further compress, although transitioning to a premium without a major market event remains challenging [5][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the issuance volume of credit bonds has increased, with a net financing of 92 billion yuan recorded, indicating a positive shift in the financing landscape [29][30] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds have decreased, with the average rates at 2.07% and 2.27% respectively, showing a downward trend in financing costs [29][30] - The credit spreads across various grades have narrowed, particularly for longer maturities, with significant compressions observed in the AA grade [32][34]

Group 1 - The performance of major global stock indices declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown leading to missing economic data, and a valuation correction in the tech sector [1] - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown [1] - In the bond market, global government bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating upward amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators showed positive signs with the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks, the central bank maintaining liquidity, and a rise in October CPI year-on-year, alleviating deflation concerns [2][4] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index touching 4000 points again during the week [2] - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds by China, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicates a potential new channel for dollar liquidity [5] Group 3 - The outlook for assets suggests a stable economic environment with narrow fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies, as the yuan remains relatively stable without strong support for a sustained dollar rise [6] - The stock market is expected to experience slight fluctuations and consolidation due to a lack of strong new policy expectations [7] - The bond market is anticipated to show stable fluctuations with a relaxed funding environment and a gradual pace of central bank bond purchases [8]

Group 1 - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters reached 682.73 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% [1] - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons, a year-on-year growth of 164.03%, with total holdings reaching 193.749 tons by the end of September [1] - Hong Kong plans to launch a multi-currency digital bond issuance for the third time in 2023, with previous issuances totaling 6.8 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, providing funding until January 30, 2026 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that President Trump's proposal for a $2,000 tariff refund for each American could be implemented through tax relief measures in existing economic legislation [1] - The U.S. and Thailand reached a trade framework agreement, with Thailand eliminating 99% of tariffs on U.S. goods while the U.S. maintains a 19% tariff on Thai products [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve Governor advocates for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of at least 25 basis points to address economic downturn risks [2] - The San Francisco Fed President noted that while demand may weaken, inflation caused by tariffs is manageable, recommending an open approach to further rate cuts [2] - October container imports in the U.S. fell by 7.5% year-on-year, with expectations of significant declines in November and December [2] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.83% to $4,123.40 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 4.70% to $50.41 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures increased by 0.5% to $60.05 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 0.5% to $63.95 per barrel [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.07% to 99.62, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [4]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - From November 10 - 16, local government bonds are scheduled to be issued worth 2850.66 billion yuan, including 1519.16 billion yuan of new bonds (125.18 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1393.99 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1331.50 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (854.25 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 477.25 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From November 3 - 9, local government bonds were actually issued worth 916.07 billion yuan, including 452.11 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 452.11 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 463.97 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (336.64 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 127.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local government bonds with pre - issuance disclosures, but specific data presentation is mainly through figures [14]. - **Planned Issuance vs. Actual Issuance**: Compares planned and actual issuances of new and refinancing bonds, with specific data presented in figures [16]. - **Local Government Bond Net Supply**: From November 3 - 9, the net supply of local government bonds was - 360 billion yuan; from November 10 - 16, the forecasted net supply is 2428 billion yuan [19]. - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 91.65% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of November 9 is presented in a figure [28]. 2.2 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 19962.24 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 1111.43 billion yuan, with an additional 537.69 billion yuan newly disclosed for the next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1189.24 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 12518.43 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 24397.06 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2025 were Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [8]. 2.3 Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Compares the primary - secondary spreads of local government bonds on November 2 and November 9, presented in figures [40]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: Compares regional secondary spreads of local government bonds, presented in a figure [41]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: Presents the investment directions of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds, presented in a figure [42].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new Securities Law over the past five years has significantly advanced the legal framework of the bond market in China, focusing on registration system reform and zero-tolerance regulation, thereby enhancing the bond market's ability to support national strategies and manage risks [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Foundation - The new Securities Law has unified the regulation of corporate credit bonds, eliminating regulatory arbitrage and establishing a solid legal foundation for the bond market [3]. - The transition from administrative approval to a market-based registration system has streamlined the bond issuance process, significantly reducing the time required for bond registration [4][5]. Group 2: Trading Mechanism - The breaking of rigid repayment guarantees has led to the establishment of a risk pricing mechanism, enhancing market efficiency and accountability [6][7][8]. - The bond market has seen a reduction in the rolling default rate from 0.88% in 2019 to 0.05% in 2023, indicating a shift towards rational pricing and maturity in the market [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The new Securities Law has increased penalties for securities violations, enhancing the deterrent effect against illegal activities and improving market integrity [9]. - The regulatory framework has been strengthened to ensure that securities service institutions are held accountable for the accuracy and completeness of their reports [9]. Group 4: Economic Support - The bond market has played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy during crises, such as the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in special bonds to counter the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [11]. - The rise of green bonds has supported the transition to a low-carbon economy, with issuance growing from 201.8 billion yuan in 2016 to 683.3 billion yuan by 2024 [12][13]. Group 5: Market Structure and Innovation - The bond market has diversified its product offerings, including the introduction of innovative instruments like tech innovation bonds and real estate investment trusts (REITs) [14][15]. - Technological advancements, such as blockchain, are being integrated into the bond market to enhance efficiency and transparency [15]. Group 6: Internationalization - The bond market has accelerated its internationalization, with the issuance of panda bonds and the establishment of cross-border investment mechanisms [16][17]. - The international influence of Chinese bonds has grown, with Chinese government bonds being included in major global bond indices [17]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The bond market must focus on risk prevention, regulatory openness, and technological empowerment to address challenges posed by global economic fluctuations and local debt pressures [19][20]. - Establishing a unified rating system and enhancing local government debt management are critical for maintaining market stability [20][21][22].

Core Insights - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, dropping to $856 billion as of July 2025, a decrease of approximately $112 billion or 11.6% year-over-year [1][3] - Concurrently, China has increased its imports of U.S. soybeans and gold, with soybean imports rising by 28.6% to 21.8 million tons and gold imports increasing by 36.2% to 707 tons in the first half of 2025 [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - China has been the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, with holdings peaking over $1.3 trillion around 2013, but has seen a gradual decline of about 35% since then [3][4] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings began in 2018, with a total decrease of approximately $3.5 trillion from 2018 to 2024 [3][4] - The motivations for reducing U.S. Treasury holdings include the need for diversified asset allocation, managing risks associated with potential U.S. dollar depreciation, and seeking higher investment returns [4][8] Group 2: Soybean and Gold Imports - The increase in soybean imports is driven by domestic demand and price competitiveness, with a projected demand of 120 million tons against a domestic production of only 18 million tons [4][5] - The rise in gold imports reflects a strategic asset allocation adjustment, as gold serves as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [7][8] - China's central bank has actively participated in gold purchases, adding approximately 105 tons in the first half of 2025, amidst a global trend of increasing gold demand [7][10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The adjustments in China's foreign exchange reserves, including the reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds and the increase in gold and soybean imports, align with a broader global trend of diversifying reserve currencies [10][11] - The gradual approach to reducing U.S. Treasury holdings suggests a focus on maintaining market stability and avoiding significant disruptions in the financial markets [8][10] - The overall strategy indicates a long-term perspective on asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of risk management and diversification in investment decisions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting its perceived decline in importance compared to the stock market, especially in light of recent economic data and market reactions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.805% after opening at 1.81% [5][6]. - Recent inflation data for October was slightly above expectations, contributing to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [5][6]. - The stock market showed mixed reactions, initially declining but later recovering as news of a potential end to the government shutdown emerged [5][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan, with a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is tightening, with the DR001 and DR007 rates hovering around 1.48% and 1.50%, respectively [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.52% and R007 at 1.50%, reflecting a mixed trend in the short-term funding market [4][9]. - The article notes a divergence in expectations for the 10-year government bond yield, with forecasts ranging from a lower bound of 1.2% to an upper bound of 2.1% [6].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 2.19 basis points to 1.40%, the 10-year yield increasing by 1.88 basis points to 1.81%, and the 30-year yield up by 1.50 basis points to 2.16% [3][15] - The central bank announced a resumption of bond purchases amounting to 20 billion yuan in October, which fell short of market expectations, contributing to a slight decline in bond market sentiment amid a strong stock market [15] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed a downward trend, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 7 basis points to 3.63% and the 2-year yield down by 5 basis points to 3.55% [15] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The scale of bond ETFs surpassed 700 billion yuan, reaching 700.44 billion yuan as of October 31, 2025, marking a significant increase from less than 180 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [4][18] - Among the 53 bond ETFs in the market, 50 have surpassed 1 billion yuan in scale, with 30 exceeding 10 billion yuan [18] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Market Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.27% since inception [19][20] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index increased by 0.02%, achieving a cumulative return of 4.45% since inception [20] - The Long-term Bond Fund Index saw a slight increase of 0.01%, with a cumulative return of 6.75% since inception [20] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 4.71% since inception [20] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.24%, achieving a cumulative return of 8.17% since inception [20] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index rose by 0.46%, with a cumulative return of 23.51% since inception [20] - The QDII Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.17%, with a cumulative return of 10.27% since inception [20] - The REITs Fund Index fell by 1.21%, with a cumulative return of 31.61% since inception [20]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed signs of recovery on November 10, with government bond futures increasing and interbank bond yields slightly declining, indicating a supportive liquidity stance from the central bank [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.22% to 116.28, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.01% to 108.485 [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bond yields mostly decreased, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.9 basis points to 2.147% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.54 basis points to 4.097% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2 basis points to 2.592% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had bidding yields of 1.4118%, 1.6604%, and 1.7536% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 5-year terms, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.72, 2.68, and 2.64 [5]. - Chongqing's local bonds showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 21 times for all maturities [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 15.2 basis points to 1.479% [6]. Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the bond market is experiencing fluctuations, emphasizing the need to balance credit bond yields with liquidity [7]. - Expectations for core inflation to weaken may lead to further declines in nominal interest rates, with a potential downward trend in bond yields anticipated by year-end [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In October, foreign trade fell short of expectations, while prices showed some improvement. The economic downward pressure in Q4 may increase. The year - on - year growth of economic data in Q3 slowed down compared to Q1 and Q2, with cumulative year - on - year negative growth in fixed investment, indicating that the traditional investment - driven economic model may face challenges. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Consumer willingness remains weak, and the slow price recovery in October reflects weak domestic economic recovery momentum. Exports may face year - on - year growth pressure in Q4 2025 due to good performance in Q4 2024. The year - on - year foreign trade data in October dropped significantly compared to September. However, the cancellation of fentanyl tariffs and the extension of the reciprocal tariff suspension period between China and the US on October 30 may support foreign trade in November and December. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the inverted Sino - US interest rate spread has significantly eased, and the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has steadily declined, suggesting that the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be initially met [2][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Price Index**: In October, the price index improved. CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and its month - on - month change turned positive. Looking ahead, food prices in Q4 may see a slower decline due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the prices of daily necessities and services may continue to perform well. PPI's year - on - year decline has narrowed for three consecutive months. From a breakdown perspective, the year - on - year decline in production materials remained flat at - 2.4%, while that in living materials narrowed to - 1.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from September [10][11][16]. - **Foreign Trade**: In October, the year - on - year growth of imports and exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, falling short of market expectations. In the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [20]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of October 31, the daily average retail volume of passenger vehicle manufacturers was 155,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 47.2%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 210,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. As of November 7, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 207.183 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 52.5%. As of October 17, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.724 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 32.4%, and the total retail sales were 4.79 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9% [23][28]. - **Transportation**: As of November 2, the weekly container throughput at ports was 6.718 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. As of November 6, the average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 4.0606 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. As of November 2, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.28 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the delivery volume was 4.31 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The weekly railway freight volume was 78.562 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and the number of highway truck passages was 57.572 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [33][36]. - **Industrial Operating Rates**: As of November 5, the operating rate of blast furnaces in major steel enterprises was 77.8%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of November 6, the average operating rate of asphalt was 22.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 percentage points. The operating rate of soda ash was 85.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 percentage points, and the operating rate of PVC was 80.6%, a year - on - year increase of 4.0 percentage points. As of November 7, the average operating rate of PX was 90.2%, and that of PTA was 77.0% [39][41]. - **Real Estate**: As of November 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.527 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 37.9%. As of October 31, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities was 1.599 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.3% [46][48]. - **Prices**: As of November 7, the average weekly pork wholesale price was 18.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 25.7% and a 4.6% decrease from 4 weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.8 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a 16.6% increase from 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% and a 0.6% increase from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly price of thermal coal at northern ports was 778 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and an 11.1% increase from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly spot price of WTI crude oil was 60.3 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5% and a 4.1% decrease from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly spot price of rebar was 3149.9 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% and a 0.9% decrease from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly spot price of iron ore was 799 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 0.1% increase from 4 weeks ago [52][56]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - Most bond yields increased. On November 7, the overnight Shibor was 1.33%, up 1.40 BP from November 3. R001 was 1.39%, up 2.54 BP; R007 was 1.47%, up 0.73 BP. DR001 was 1.33%, up 1.73 BP; DR007 was 1.41%, down 0.57 BP. IBO001 was 1.38%, up 2.10 BP; IBO007 was 1.46%, down 0.22 BP. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 1.8 BP/1.9 BP/1.9 BP/1.6 BP compared to October 31. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%/1.76%/2.00% respectively, down 0.7 BP/1.3 BP/3.8 BP compared to October 31. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.47%/1.64%/1.49%/1.67% respectively, up 6.1 BP/0.5 BP/6.1 BP/0.5 BP compared to October 31. As of November 7, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.7%, 4.5%, and 2.8% respectively, unchanged/+2 BP/+5 BP/+4 BP compared to October 31. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.08/7.12 respectively, down 44/+90 pips compared to October 31 [58][62][71]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. It has been decreasing overall in the past two months and increased this week. On November 7, 2025, the estimated average duration was around 5.0 years, and the estimated median duration was around 4.4 years, an increase of about 0.01 years compared to October 31. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. It increased and then rapidly decreased in the past month and continued to decline rapidly this week. On November 7, 2025, the estimated average and median durations were around 2.1 years, a decrease of about 0.1 years compared to October [73][75]. 3.5 Investment Suggestion - The bond market trend may deviate from the fundamentals in the short term but cannot do so in the long term. Currently, the bond market has significant allocation value, and bond yields may decline fluctuantly. According to seasonal patterns, treasury bond yields usually decline significantly in November and December. Due to weak domestic consumption willingness and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy interest rate may be cut by 20 BP in the next six months. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading may have set the upper limit for bond yields, and future pricing may reflect the expected policy - rate cut. The report continues to be bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of 10Y treasury bonds will return to around 1.65%, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds will reach 1.9%, and the yield of 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks will reach 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) by the end of the year [76][79].