Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.5%, indicating economic uncertainty and multiple factors affecting market direction [1] - Global investors are reassessing debt and deficit issues across countries, not just in the U.S., with expectations of rising global bond yields [1][2] - The decline in the international appeal of U.S. Treasuries is evident as foreign investors, particularly from Japan, shift their focus back to domestic markets due to rising Japanese bond yields [2] Group 2 - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among developed countries at 235%, while the U.S. stands at 122% [3] - Concerns are rising regarding European sovereign debt as fiscal pressures increase, with Germany's 10-year bond yield expected to rise from 2.5% to 3% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy and tariff uncertainties complicate predictions for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is projected to end the year at 4.25% [3] Group 3 - A proposed tax bill in the U.S. could increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with the current fiscal deficit at 6.4% of GDP [4] - The likelihood of a severe market reaction similar to the U.K.'s past situation is considered low due to high current yields helping to stabilize the market [4] Group 4 - A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields could negatively impact the stock market, leading to wider credit spreads and tighter financial conditions, ultimately suppressing economic growth [5] - Concerns about U.S. debt management are highlighted, with warnings that failure to control debt could lead to significant market disruptions [5]

周四（6月5日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率涨1.0个基点，报4.616%，北京时间20:30跌至4.554% 刷新日低，随后出现两波反弹。 ...

Group 1 - The auction bid rate for U.S. Treasury bonds as of June 5 reached 67.87%, a significant increase from the previous value of 22.53% [1]

Group 1 - The auction bid-to-cover ratio for U.S. Treasury bonds as of June 5 reached 3.26, an increase from the previous value of 2.92 [1]

金十图示：2025年06月05日（周四）美盘市场行情一览 美国2年期国债收益率 3.873 -0.004 -0.10% | 现货铂金 XPTUSD | 1142.540 | +53.000 | +4.86% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货钮金 XPDUSD | 1012.650 | +20.400 | +2.06% | | 黄金(COMEX) GC | 3408.800 | +11.400 | +0.34% | | 白银(COMEX) SI | 36.170 | +1.515 | +4.37% | FOREIGN EXCHANGE 欧元/美元 +0.59% 1.148 EURUSD 英镑/美元 +0.41% 1.361 GBPUSD 美元/日元 In +0.18% 142.979 USDJPY 澳元/美元 +0.69% 0.654 AUDUSD 美元/瑞郎 -0.07% 0.818 USDCHF | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.608 | | +0.91% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | n | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | ...

Group 1 - The yield spread between Germany's 2-year and 10-year government bonds has narrowed to levels seen on April 4, reaching 68.20 basis points, with the latest figure at 70.20 basis points [1]

美国国债收益率收复部分跌幅，10年期国债收益率最新下跌2.5个基点，报4.34%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of urban investment bonds has seasonally weakened, and the market has entered a stock or even de - stock phase. Weak - qualified entities are accelerating their exit, increasing the scarcity of coupon assets. The secondary market trading activity has increased due to the "deposit relocation" [1][12][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Weak Entities Accelerate Exit, Coupon Scarcity Increases 2.1.1 Issuance and Repayment: Seasonal Weakening of Urban Investment Bond Supply - As of May 31, 2025, 3797 urban investment entities under the HA scope issued 280.2 billion yuan of bonds and repaid 351.5 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 71.3 billion yuan. The net repayment scale decreased by about 10.2 billion yuan month - on - month and increased by about 37.3 billion yuan year - on - year. The issuance scale was the lowest in the same period in the past three years. Since 2024, the cumulative net repayment has been 2.5 billion yuan. AA and below weak - qualified entities have cumulatively net - repaid 585.7 billion yuan, while AAA entities have net - borrowed 519 billion yuan [12][16]. - From an administrative perspective, all administrative - level entities were in a net - repayment state in May. The net - repayment amounts from high to low were prefecture - level cities (24.3 billion yuan), county - level regions (17.1 billion yuan), provincial - level (16.8 billion yuan), and park - level (13.1 billion yuan) [16]. - From a rating perspective, all rating entities were in a net - repayment state in May. The net - repayment amounts from high to low were AA (27.7 billion yuan), AAA (25.6 billion yuan), AA+ (15.8 billion yuan), below AA (140 million yuan), and unrated (90 million yuan) [17]. - From a variety perspective, the net financing amounts of various bond varieties from high to low were corporate bonds (11.4 billion yuan) and private placement bonds (6.6 billion yuan). The net - repayment amounts from high to low were SCP (44.2 billion yuan), enterprise bonds (21.4 billion yuan), MTN (10.2 billion yuan), CP (8.6 billion yuan), and PPN (4.9 billion yuan) [17]. - From a term perspective, only bonds with a term of over 3 years were in a net - borrowing state in May, with a net borrowing of 35.9 billion yuan. The net - repayment amounts of other term bonds from high to low were 2 - year (46.3 billion yuan), 6 - month to 1 - year (39 billion yuan), 3 - year (9.2 billion yuan), 6 - month and below (8.6 billion yuan), and 1 - year (4.2 billion yuan) [17]. - From a regional perspective, the provinces with the highest net financing in May were Shandong (7.3 billion yuan), Fujian (2.5 billion yuan), and Tibet (1 billion yuan). The provinces with the highest net - repayment were Jiangsu (18.2 billion yuan), Zhejiang (9.2 billion yuan), and Hubei (8.5 billion yuan) [18]. 2.1.2 Maturity Pressure: About 7.7 Trillion Yuan to Mature Before the End of 2026 - As of May 31, 2025, the maturity pressure of 3797 urban investment bonds under the HA scope before the end of 2026 is about 7.7 trillion yuan, with 3.4 trillion yuan in 2025 and 4.4 trillion yuan in 2026. By the end of 2025, the remaining maturity pressure is about 335.06 billion yuan (assuming 100% exercise of callable bonds), with maturity peaks in June (56.93 billion yuan), August (53.09 billion yuan), and September (57.12 billion yuan) [39]. - The top 5 provinces with the remaining maturity amounts by the end of 2025 are Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Hubei [40]. - The top 5 cities are Qingdao, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Nantong [41]. - The top 5 districts and counties are Jiangning District of Nanjing, Huangdao District (including the West Coast New Area) of Qingdao, Pudong New Area of Shanghai, Huangpu District of Guangzhou, and Wuzhong District of Suzhou [41]. - The top 5 parks are Xi'an High - tech Industrial Development Zone, Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Suzhou High - tech Industrial Development Zone, Zhengzhou Airport Economy Comprehensive Experimental Zone, and Taizhou Medical High - tech Industrial Development Zone [41]. - The top 5 entities are Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd., Hunan Expressway Group Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd., Shandong Hi - Speed Group Co., Ltd., and Xi'an Hi - tech Holdings Co., Ltd. [41]. 2.1.3 Primary Subscription: Average of 3.00 Times, Continued High - Level Allocation Sentiment - As of May 31, 2025, among the urban investment bonds issued in the month, 103.3 billion yuan of bonds disclosed bidding data, with a cumulative bidding scale of 309.7 billion yuan and an average subscription multiple of 3.00 times, a decrease of 0.06 times month - on - month [44]. - In terms of administrative levels, the subscription sentiment of county - level and park - level entities significantly increased. The average subscription multiples of provincial, prefecture - level, county - level, and park - level entities were 1.99 times (a decrease of 0.26 times month - on - month), 3.16 times (a decrease of 0.23 times month - on - month), 4.09 times (an increase of 0.98 times month - on - month), and 3.47 times (an increase of 0.45 times month - on - month) respectively [46]. - In terms of bond ratings, investors favored the credit - sinking strategy. The average subscription multiples of AAA, AA+, AA, AA(2), and AA - were 1.26 times (a decrease of 0.36 times month - on - month), 2.94 times (a decrease of 0.08 times month - on - month), 4.24 times (an increase of 0.75 times month - on - month), 3.51 times (an increase of 0.27 times month - on - month), and 2.53 times (a decrease of 0.26 times month - on - month) respectively [46]. - In terms of bond terms, the sentiment for long - term bonds remained high. The average subscription multiples for bonds within 1 year, 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years, and over 5 years were 2.14 times (a decrease of 0.4 times month - on - month), 3.57 times (an increase of 0.18 times month - on - month), 4.2 times (an increase of 1.19 times month - on - month), 3.27 times (a decrease of 0.15 times month - on - month), and 3.47 times (an increase of 0.4 times month - on - month) respectively [47]. 2.2 Deposit Relocation Triggers Credit Market, Trading Activity Increases 2.2.1 Valuation Spread: Yield Continues to Decline Driven by Demand - Side - In May 2025, due to the loose monetary policy, the central level of capital interest rates declined, and the coupon advantage of credit bonds became prominent. The reduction of bank deposit rates led to the "deposit relocation" effect, increasing the allocation demand for credit bonds by wealth management products. Urban investment bond yields showed a unilateral decline. However, at the end of the month, the bond market adjusted due to tariff policy fluctuations and institutional behavior changes [54]. - In the short - term, the spreads of each implied rating for short - term bonds have reached historical lows. The main capital gain space may lie in the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. For 1 - year bonds, the yields of AAA, AA+, AA, and AA(2) decreased by 9.1bp, 9.1bp, 9.1bp, and 10.1bp to 1.74%, 1.79%, 1.84%, and 1.89% respectively; for 3 - year bonds, they decreased by 9.0bp, 9.0bp, 14.0bp, and 16.0bp to 1.84%, 1.92%, 2.00%, and 2.11% respectively; for 5 - year bonds, they decreased by 7.5bp, 7.5bp, 12.5bp, and 13.5bp to 1.96%, 2.05%, 2.17%, and 2.37% respectively [55]. - Vertically, short - term spreads have reached new lows, while term spreads and grade spreads still have room for compression. As of May 31, the valuation yields of urban investment bonds with each implied rating from 1 - year to 5 - year have reached historical lows, and the three - year percentiles are all at extremely low levels of 5% and below. The credit spreads have also reached lows, with the three - year percentiles of 1 - year and 3 - year ratings below 10%. Only 5 - year bonds still have compression space [59]. 2.2.2 Secondary Trading: Increased Activity Month - on - Month, Medium - and Long - Term Bonds Lead the Gains - In May 2025, the sample trading records of urban investment bonds were about 16,000, with an average daily trading volume of about 841, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The average daily trading volume reached a new high this year. The taken trading volume was about 12,000, accounting for 76%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month. The long - short ratio was 3.41, an increase of about 0.46 basis points from the previous month [63]. - In terms of bond ratings, the trading proportion of AAA - rated bonds was 9.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; AA+ was 21.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; AA was 23.7%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points; AA(2) was 35.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point; AA - was 9.4%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points. - In terms of terms, the trading proportion of bonds within 1 year was 31.2%, a significant decrease of 7.4 percentage points month - on - month; 1 - 3 years was 44.7%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points; 3 - 5 years was 21.0%, a significant increase of 4.9 percentage points; over 5 years was 3.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points [64].

Core Viewpoint - Long-term US Treasury bonds experienced a slight increase, influenced by better-than-expected demand in the 30-year Japanese government bond auction and rising German bonds ahead of the European Central Bank decision [1] Group 1: US Treasury Market - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds remained relatively flat, with the 7-year segment showing minor fluctuations [1] - Long-term yields decreased by 2-3 basis points compared to the previous trading day, while short-term yields saw a slight increase [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose by less than 2 basis points to 4.34%, underperforming compared to UK and German bonds of the same maturity by 1-2 basis points [1] Group 2: European Bond Market - Strong demand was noted in the bond auctions for French and Spanish government bonds, which positively impacted European bonds during early trading in London [1] - The German bond market showed an upward trend in anticipation of the European Central Bank's decision, contributing to the overall performance of European bonds [1]

资讯汇总 [table_Header]2025.06.05 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 赵子健(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880520060003 | | | 王佳(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880524010001 | | | 蔡晨(研究助理) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880123070146 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 7 [Table_Summary] 结论：上周（2025 年 5 月 26 日-2025 年 5 月 30 日）A 股市场有所回调， 沪深 300 指数收跌 1.08%，ESG300 指数收跌 1.31%，中证 ESG100 指数收 跌 0.45%，科创 ESG 指数收跌 0.59%；上周全 A 日均成交额约 1.10 万亿 元，流动性环比收窄。 基金产品：截至 2025 年 6 月 3 日，本月尚未发行 ESG 基金产品。近一年 共发行 ESG 公募基金产品 143 只，发行总份额为 ...