Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market - On April 15, the silicon iron 2506 contract closed at 5774, down 1.47%, while the spot price in Ningxia remained stable at 5800 [1] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that Fed Governor Waller suggested tariffs might lead the Fed to lower interest rates to avoid economic recession amid high inflation [1] - The profit margin for silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is -63 CNY/ton, while in Ningxia it is +1 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market - On April 15, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5960, down 1.32%, with the spot price in Inner Mongolia reported at 5750, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows that the weighted average interest rate for new personal housing loans in March was approximately 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [2] - The profit margin for manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is -120 CNY/ton, and in Ningxia it is -380 CNY/ton [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Silicon ferroalloy experiences wide - range fluctuations due to the successive shutdowns in major production areas, while manganese ferroalloy fluctuates widely due to the resonance of the black - metal sector [1]. Detailed Summaries 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Data** - Silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract has a closing price of 5944, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 32,205 and an open interest of 74,528. Silicon ferroalloy 2506 contract has a closing price of 5900, down 4 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 139,105 and an open interest of 195,566 [1]. - Manganese ferroalloy 2505 contract has a closing price of 5966, up 52 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 184,214 and an open interest of 292,991. Manganese ferroalloy 2506 contract has a closing price of 5988, up 54 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 35,035 and an open interest of 95,144 [1]. - **Spot Data** - The aggregated price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 1 yuan/ton - degree from the previous day. The price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shenmu is 610 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads** - The spot - 05 futures price spread of silicon ferroalloy is - 324 yuan/ton, and that of manganese ferroalloy is - 166 yuan/ton. The near - far month price spread of silicon ferroalloy 2505 - 2509 is 6 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The near - far month price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2505 - 2509 is - 90 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2505 - silicon ferroalloy 2505 is 22 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous day. The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 is 118 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On April 10th, the price range of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton in different regions, and the price range of 75 silicon ferroalloy is 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1050 - 1080 dollars/ton, and that of 75 is 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 fluctuates, and the spot quotation is scarce, with the factory quotes mostly in the range of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [1]. - South32 announced that the offer price of South African semi - carbonate block (typical value Mn36.9%) in May 2025 is 4.05 dollars/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.6 dollars/ton - degree compared with April [1]. - A new silicon - ferroalloy maintenance enterprise in Qinghai, Qinghai Shouheng, is maintaining 1 unit, affecting the daily output by 30 tons. Qinghai Yehua maintained 2 units of 18500kva silicon - ferroalloy furnaces yesterday, reducing the daily output by 100 - 110 tons [2][3]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summaries by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on April 10, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5,600, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5,620, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly decrease of 130. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1,075 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese alloy at the production area's ex - factory price is 5,750, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various types of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy in different regions from 2021 - 2025, including market prices, export and import average prices, and price differences between different contracts [3][4][6]. Supply - The report shows the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly data, as well as the capacity utilization rates of silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. For silicon manganese, it shows the production volume in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][6]. Demand - The report provides data on the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 (Steel Union's caliber). It also presents data on the production volume of crude steel in China, the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, etc., which can reflect the demand situation to some extent [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including national and regional (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) data, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions from 2021 - 2025. For silicon manganese, it shows the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [5][7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it presents the electricity prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025. For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of silicon manganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions from 2021 - 2025 [5][7].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For silicon ferroalloy, prices are supported by the successive shutdowns in major production areas. For manganese silicon, it shows a weak and volatile trend due to the resonance of the black - plate sector [1] - The trend strength of silicon ferroalloy is 1, and that of manganese silicon is 0 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon ferroalloy 2505: closing price 5952 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan from the previous trading day, trading volume 66,794, open interest 90,745 [1] - Silicon ferroalloy 2506: closing price 5866 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan from the previous trading day, trading volume 145,389, open interest 189,424 [1] - Manganese silicon 2505: closing price 5962 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, trading volume 185,990, open interest 328,693 [1] - Manganese silicon 2506: closing price 5986 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan from the previous trading day, trading volume 40,425, open interest 93,887 [1] Spot Data - FeSi75 - B silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia: price 5660 yuan/ton [1] - FeMn65Si17 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia: price 5800 yuan/ton [1] - Mn44 block manganese ore: price 42.0 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.5 yuan/ton - degree from the previous trading day [1] - Small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu: price 610 yuan/ton [1] Spread Data - Silicon ferroalloy (spot - 05 futures): - 292 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese silicon (spot - 05 futures): - 162 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Silicon ferroalloy 2505 - 2509: 14 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese silicon 2505 - 2509: - 94 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese silicon 2505 - silicon ferroalloy 2505: 10 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese silicon 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509: 118 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On April 8, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 6150 yuan/ton, in Gansu 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton (cash - inclusive natural lump ex - factory price, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1050 - 1080 US dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton (tax - inclusive). The 6517 silicon - manganese was weakly stable, with north - south quotes at 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton, cash ex - factory tax - inclusive quote) [1] - A silicon - manganese plant in Ningxia reduced production by 1 silicon - manganese furnace today, with daily output reduced by 200 tons, and is expected to shut down for 1 month, subject to market conditions later. A new material company in Gansu shut down 2 40500kva and 5 12500kva furnaces, involving common silicon and high - purity silicon ferroalloy, with a cumulative reduction in daily output of about 400 tons. All the silicon - ferroalloy electric furnaces of an iron - alloy plant in Gansu shut down today, and another manufacturer plans to shut down 1 25500kva silicon - ferroalloy furnace, reducing daily output by 70 tons [1] - A steel plant in Shandong's Rizhao company set the price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 6030 yuan/ton in cash on April 3, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a purchase volume of 350 tons. A steel plant in Guangdong set the purchase price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 6280 yuan/ton in acceptance. Another steel plant in Guangdong set the purchase price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 6190 yuan/ton in cash, with a volume of 800 tons [2][3]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 中期弱势 | 螺纹产量继续上升，铁水产量环比继续增加，目前铁水产量已处于同期偏 | | | | 高水平，在钢厂利润仍然不错的背景下，钢厂生产积极性较高。而需求端 | | | | 仍然处于较疲弱的状态，建筑钢材日成交有所回升，但需观察持续性，整 | | | | 体供需趋于宽松的矛盾有增强可能，中期走势偏弱。【3130，3200】 | | 热卷 | 中期偏弱 | 热卷基本面目前体现为供需两旺的状态，库存正常去化。禁止"买单出口" | | | | 或对后期钢材出口产生较大影响，叠加反倾销等预期，基本面有继续宽松 | | | | 的倾向，中期维持偏弱运行。【3300，3380】 | | 铁矿石 | 正套参与 | 本期发货环比增加，到货明显回落，港口小幅增库，钢厂去库，铁矿基本 | | | | 面阶段性好转。关注下游旺季成色，关税落地关键时点，扰动增加，短期 | | | | 矿价震荡偏强运行。操作上 5-9 正套参与，09 合约逢高空配【760,820】 | | 焦炭 | 低位运行 | 焦企出现提涨，提涨幅度不大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price spread between silicon iron and ferrosilicon is primarily influenced by cost and supply-demand changes, with significant price movements often triggered by cost variations since the futures market was established [2][30]. Group 1: Cost Changes - Cost changes predominantly drive price spread variations, often leading to extreme market conditions. Historical data shows that major price movements are frequently linked to manganese ore and coal-related costs, with manganese ore being particularly volatile due to high import dependence and various uncontrollable factors [3][31]. - The cost structure for silicon iron is mainly composed of electricity (50%-60%), coal (15%-25%), and other materials (10%-15%), while for ferrosilicon, manganese ore constitutes 55%-60% of the cost, followed by electricity (20%-35%) [7][10]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Supply-demand fluctuations generally result in smaller price movements compared to cost changes. In recent years, the supply side has become more self-regulated, reducing the impact of policy-driven supply constraints on price spreads [4][32]. - The demand for ferrosilicon is significantly higher in steel production (over 90%) compared to silicon iron (60%-70%), which affects the price spread based on inventory levels and demand strength [10][11]. Group 3: Price Spread Evolution - The evolution of the price spread has matured over time, with trading becoming more timely and efficient since the futures market for silicon iron and ferrosilicon was launched in 2014. The price spread has transitioned from being lagged by spot prices to being actively traded [5][33]. - The historical price spread has undergone significant changes, particularly post-2020, where the price of silicon iron began to exceed that of ferrosilicon due to various factors including energy policies and production constraints [12][26]. Group 4: Historical Price Spread Review - The price spread between silicon iron and ferrosilicon has experienced various phases influenced by cost, demand, and supply dynamics. For instance, from 2015 to 2016, the price spread was primarily driven by cost changes and environmental regulations affecting supply [14][19]. - In 2021, the price spread saw a significant shift due to policy impacts, with silicon iron prices reaching historical highs while ferrosilicon prices lagged, leading to an expanded price spread [26][27]. Group 5: Recent Trends and Outlook - Since 2022, the price volatility of silicon iron and ferrosilicon has narrowed, returning to a cost-driven pricing logic. The price spread is expected to continue its downward trend into 2023, influenced by easing energy prices and high inventory levels [28][29].

四川川投能源股份有限公司 收购报告书摘要 上市公司名称：四川川投能源股份有限公司 股票上市地点：上海证券交易所 股票简称：川投能源 股票代码：600674 收购人名称：四川能源发展集团有限责任公司 住所：中国（四川）自由贸易试验区成都高新区天泰路 112 号 通讯地址：成都市高新区剑南大道中段 716 号 2 号楼 一致行动人名称：四川川投峨眉铁合金（集团）有限责任公司 住所：峨眉山市九里镇 通讯地址：峨眉山市九里镇 签署日期：二〇二五年二月 收购人及一致行动人声明 本声明所述的词语或简称与收购报告书摘要"释义"部分所定义的词语或简 称具有相同的含义。 1 一、本报告书摘要依据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》 《上市公司收购管理办法》《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 16 号——上市公司收购报告书》等相关法律、法规和规范性文件编制。 二、依据《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司收购管理办法》《公开发行证 券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 16 号——上市公司收购报告书》的规定， 本报告书摘要已全面披露了收购人及一致行动人在川投能源拥有权益的情况；截 至本报告书摘要签署之日，除本报告书 ...