2025 年 5 月 12 日 总量研究 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗普的交易底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十四篇（2025-05- 10） 中美关税第二轮，双方在如何出牌？—— 《大国博弈》系列第七十九篇（2025-03- 05） 从减税视角出发，特朗普后续关税力度几 何？——《大国博弈》系列第七十八篇 （2025-02-20） 如何看待美中加墨本轮关税交锋？——《大 国博弈》系列第七十七篇（2025-02-06） 野心与现实：特朗普首日新政评述——《大 国博弈》系列第七十六篇（2025-01-21） 要点 核心观点： 在中国的示范下，越来越多的国家意识到，与美谈判"以斗争求合作则合作存，以 妥协求合作则合作亡"，"美 X 谈判"进展缓慢，对美国经济、市场和特朗普选盘 逐步造成实质 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to significantly expand high-standard farmland, targeting the establishment of 1.35 billion acres by 2030 and a total of 1.35 billion acres of upgraded farmland by 2035, enhancing agricultural productivity and resilience against disasters [4][7][8]. Group 1: Current Status and Achievements - As of now, over 1 billion acres of high-standard farmland have been established in China, with significant improvements in disaster resilience and productivity [6][7]. - In regions like Shandong, high-standard farmland projects are underway, equipped with advanced irrigation and fertilization systems, leading to increased efficiency for farmers [4][6]. Group 2: Benefits of High-Standard Farmland - High-standard farmland offers advantages such as drought and flood resilience, stable high yields, improved quality, and resource utilization efficiency, with an estimated 10% increase in grain production capacity [5][6]. - Mechanization levels in high-standard farmland areas are 15-20 percentage points higher than in non-project areas, leading to reduced water, electricity, pesticide, and fertilizer usage [6]. Group 3: Future Plans and Strategies - The new implementation plan outlines a two-phase approach for high-standard farmland construction, with specific targets for 2030 and 2035, focusing on areas with high agricultural potential [7][8]. - The plan emphasizes integrated management of land, water, and infrastructure, prioritizing construction in regions with favorable conditions while restricting development in ecologically sensitive areas [8]. Group 4: Funding and Management - The plan highlights the importance of stable funding and diverse investment channels for high-standard farmland projects, with increased financial support from both central and local governments [10][11]. - Effective management and maintenance of high-standard farmland are crucial, with local governments responsible for operational oversight and community involvement encouraged for ongoing care [11][12].

Group 1 - The grain concept sector declined by 0.60%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with notable declines in stocks such as Kemin Foods, Shennong Seed Industry, and Quanyin High-Tech [1] - Among the grain concept stocks, 11 stocks experienced price increases, with *ST Huifeng, *ST Wanfang, and ST Yalian leading the gains at 2.80%, 2.73%, and 2.45% respectively [1] Group 2 - The grain concept sector saw a net outflow of 555 million yuan from main funds today, with 33 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 7 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Dabeinong, with a net outflow of 55.14 million yuan, followed by Jinhai Biological, Beidahuang, and Lianhua Holdings with net outflows of 44.98 million yuan, 41.51 million yuan, and 37.18 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included ST Yalian, Tianhong Shares, and Luoping Zinc Electric, with net inflows of 0.66 million yuan, 0.48 million yuan, and 0.45 million yuan respectively [2]

Financial Support and Economic Recovery - The financial support has significantly contributed to the economic recovery of Wenchuan, with total deposits increasing by 4.62 times and loans reaching 4.89 billion yuan, more than doubling since April 2008 [1] - The People's Bank of China has actively guided financial institutions to implement supportive policies, injecting continuous momentum into Wenchuan's revitalization [1] Ecological Restoration and Green Financing - The establishment of reserve forest projects aims to restore the severely damaged ecological environment post-earthquake, with a dedicated loan of 1.1 billion yuan provided under a "National Reserve Forest + Green Industry Chain" model [2] - The project is expected to generate 3.2 billion yuan in revenue over the next 30 years, benefiting local villagers and improving the ecological environment [2] - As of April, the county's green loan balance reached 1.582 billion yuan, showcasing the ongoing empowerment of green finance [2] Tourism Development and Financial Products - The tourism sector in Wenchuan has seen a revival, with financial institutions supporting 458 homestays and issuing loans totaling 79.14 million yuan [3] - During the recent May Day holiday, over 325,000 tourists visited the area, indicating a strong recovery in tourism [3] - The financial products like "Homestay Loans" and "Rural Tourism Loans" have been instrumental in promoting local tourism and economic growth [3] Agricultural Development and Financial Innovation - Financial support has enabled the establishment of modern agricultural enterprises, such as a pig farm that increased its stock from 500 to 2000 pigs, generating over 1 million yuan in annual profit [4] - The agricultural sector has benefited from loans totaling 40 million yuan, fostering the development of a provincial-level key enterprise in agricultural industrialization [5] - As of April, the agricultural loan balance reached 2.097 billion yuan, benefiting 3,468 agricultural entities, highlighting the role of innovative rural financial products in revitalizing the agricultural industry [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the dual enhancement of the total amount and quality of village-level collective economy in Xuyi County, focusing on organizational leadership, industrial development, and mechanism guarantees to promote collective income, talent gathering, and vibrant industries [1][2][3] Group 2 - The development of projects is highlighted, with a focus on five major industrial clusters: crayfish, rice, livestock, crabs, and vegetables, leading to the establishment of 68 rural economic organizations such as cooperatives and family farms [2] - The county supports the establishment of specialized projects like rice-crayfish farming zones and medicinal herb industrial parks, enhancing local economic activities [2] - The promotion of cultural tourism projects is noted, with 47 agricultural tourism projects implemented across 27 key villages, improving rural tourism capacity [2] Group 3 - The improvement of incentive mechanisms for village cadres is discussed, including a profit-sharing mechanism linked to collective economic growth, resulting in over 6 million yuan in cumulative rewards [3] - Political incentives are provided to encourage capable village leaders, with 8 selected for higher positions based on their performance in collective income generation [3] - The county aims for an average collective operating income of over 1.46 million yuan per village by 2024, with 67.9% of villages achieving over 1 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant advancements in high-standard farmland construction by the Beidahuang Group, showcasing improvements in efficiency and productivity through modernization and investment [2][6]. - The Beidahuang Group has completed the transformation of 34,000 acres of high-standard farmland, resulting in larger fields and reduced farming costs, saving farmers approximately 1,800 yuan annually in labor and machinery expenses [2][3]. - The project has a total investment of 94.95 million yuan, with 90.2 million yuan sourced from long-term special government bonds, leading to a 100% accessibility rate of farm roads [3]. Group 2 - Soil and water conservation efforts are being enhanced, with the Red Star Farm implementing measures to restore eroded land and improve water retention, supported by government funding [4]. - The integration of technology in farming practices is evident at the 290 Farm, where IoT devices and smart irrigation systems have led to significant increases in crop yields, with one farmer reporting an additional 17,000 pounds of grain from 430.9 acres [5]. - The Beidahuang Group aims to construct an additional 800,000 acres of high-standard farmland in 2024, contributing to a total of nearly 120 million acres in Heilongjiang by the end of the year, positioning the province as a leader in high-standard farmland development in China [6].

Group 1 - The Agricultural Bank of China is focusing on providing tailored financial services to support agricultural production during the spring farming season, ensuring a stable start for agricultural activities across the country [1][2] - The bank has implemented a "one project, one plan" credit service model to support the entire process of the local specialty industry, particularly the development of the Chinese toon industry in Ruicheng County, Shanxi Province, with over 30 million yuan in loans disbursed [2][3] - The bank has launched the "Jinpin e-loan" series to enhance support for local agricultural specialty industries, with a total of 2.267 billion yuan in loans issued for agricultural specialty industries this year [2] Group 2 - The Agricultural Bank of Ningxia is actively promoting a financial service model that integrates policy coordination, resource integration, and product innovation to facilitate spring farming financing, with a target of 12.5 billion yuan in loans by March 2025, benefiting 170,000 households [3] - The bank has introduced the "Rural Revitalization Vegetable Farmer Loan" to support vegetable farmers in Qinghai, with a total of 200 million yuan disbursed to 1,687 households as of March 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong is leveraging brand development as a strategic initiative to enhance economic growth and competitiveness, particularly in the context of global economic shifts and industrial transformation [1][2][3] Group 1: Brand Development and Economic Strategy - Shandong's brand construction is positioned as a strategic project to address industrial transformation and enhance modern provincial development [1][2] - The province aims to elevate industrial value and integrate innovative resources through brand building, which is seen as essential for regional competitive advantage and participation in global supply chains [1][2] - The "Good Products Shandong" initiative is a key driver for Shandong's economic high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of brand as a competitive asset [1][2] Group 2: Standards and Technological Advancements - Shandong's enterprises have led or participated in the formulation of 423 standards, including 13 international standards, 247 national standards, and 163 industry standards, showcasing their commitment to quality and innovation [2] - The province's focus on brand-driven quality transformation is crucial for transitioning from quantity-driven growth to quality leadership, especially given that traditional industries account for over 70% of its economy [2][3] Group 3: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Shandong has established a comprehensive support system for brand growth, combining policy guidance with market-driven approaches, including financial incentives and quality awards for outstanding enterprises [2][3] - Local initiatives, such as Qingdao's brand construction regulations, highlight the importance of legislative support in fostering brand development and financial backing for key enterprises [3] Group 4: Agricultural and Manufacturing Innovations - In agriculture, Shandong has developed a multi-tiered branding strategy that enhances product value and market reach, transforming local specialties into internationally recognized brands [5] - The manufacturing sector is advancing through a "standards-led and innovation-driven" approach, with platforms like the Kaos Industrial Internet leading the way in setting international standards and serving a vast number of enterprises [5] Group 5: Global Expansion and Cultural Integration - Shandong brands are expanding globally through a dual strategy of global research and local operations, exemplified by Shandong Lingong's overseas manufacturing bases and localized product adaptations [6] - The province's branding efforts are redefining "Made in China" from a low-cost label to one associated with quality and innovation, reflecting a broader cultural and economic narrative [6][7]

李朝阳一行先后前往丁岗镇娟莹家庭农场、荣禾家庭农场，姚桥镇欣瑞家庭农场、江苏润果农业发 展有限公司，以及大路镇超群家庭农场，实地察看小麦长势和土壤墒情，与种植户、农技人员深入交 流，详细了解当前灌溉进度、水源供应、设备运行、田间管理情况，仔细询问今年小麦预计产量、成 本、收益以及当前面临的困难需求等。李朝阳要求相关部门板块加强对旱情、墒情的监测研判，多措并 举、精准发力，科学务实抓好抗旱保产工作，守牢镇江经开区粮食安全底线。 5月7日，镇江经开区党工委书记、管委会主任李朝阳现场调研抗旱工作，强调要深入学习贯彻习近 平总书记重要讲话重要指示精神，坚决扛稳扛牢粮食安全政治责任，统筹资源、科学施策，最大限度降 低旱情对农业生产的影响。 李朝阳强调，要深刻领悟粮食安全是"国之大者"，把抗旱保产作为当前农业生产的重中之重，强化 底线思维，增强危机意识，抓实各项举措，以"时时放心不下"的责任感，全力以赴打好抗旱"主动仗"。 要切实维护保障农民利益，用足用好各项政策，加大对农业抗旱救灾的资金投入，为农户提供必要的物 资和技术支持，充分发挥农业保险的"稳定器"作用，让受灾农户能够及时得到赔偿、减少损失。要着力 强化部门协同联 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a significant surge in the military industry stocks, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" equipment procurement entering a critical phase and confirmed orders for new drones, reminiscent of the military reform wave five years ago [3] - Key players in the military sector, such as AVIC Chengfei and Huawu Co., saw their stocks hit the daily limit, indicating strong market interest and potential growth [3] - The technology sector is experiencing a resurgence, with companies like Wolong Nuclear Material and Cambridge Technology benefiting from AI computing power, while also reflecting the trend of domestic substitution [3] Group 2 - The afternoon trading session showed three notable trends: military stocks maintained their gains, technology stocks saw late buying, and northbound capital surged by 6 billion in the last half hour, indicating strong foreign interest [4] - Investment strategies suggest waiting for military stocks to pull back to the five-day moving average before entering, focusing on technology stocks with significant overseas orders, and identifying undervalued new material stocks with profit margins over 15% [4] - The overall market volume reached 1.2 trillion, which is considered adequate, but further upward movement will require sustained buying pressure [4]