Macro and Strategy Research - The actual GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8%, matching expectations but down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, indicating economic resilience despite a slight slowdown [2][3] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.2% [2] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, indicating a need for structural optimization in investment [2][3] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds mostly declined, with an overall change of -7 basis points to 0 basis points, indicating a slight market recovery [6] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes showing positive net financing [6] - The overall credit bond yield is expected to enter a downward channel in the long term, with a focus on adjusting strategies during market fluctuations [6][8] Company Research: Zijin Mining (601899) - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% [9][10] - Gold, copper, and silver production increased year-on-year, with gold production rising by 19.68% and copper by 5.12% [10] - The successful listing of Zijin Gold International on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised approximately 28.7 billion HKD, enhancing the company's resource base [11][12] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt (603799) - Huayou Cobalt achieved a revenue of 58.941 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 29.57% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% [14][15] - The company's integrated operations and rising cobalt prices significantly contributed to its performance [15] - Long-term supply contracts with LGES for ternary precursor materials are expected to support future revenue growth [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province has discovered a large strontium ore deposit in the Lishui Basin, with inferred resource amounts reaching 545.55 thousand tons and an average grade of 48.65% [3][5]. Group 1: Discovery and Significance - The newly discovered strontium ore deposit is located in the northeastern part of the Lishui volcanic basin, surrounding the Aijing Mountain large strontium deposit [3]. - Strontium, as an important rare metal, is widely used in special ceramic materials and magnetic alloy manufacturing, playing a crucial role in national industrial development and technological advancement [3]. Group 2: Exploration Efforts - The geological survey team has spent four years on strontium exploration in the Lishui area, addressing challenges such as extensive Quaternary cover and significant human activity [5]. - The project team proposed a new understanding of the second mineralization space in the basement fault of the Kaitai-Baimashan area, based on the structural evolution history of the Lishui Basin [5]. Group 3: Findings and Models - The project team discovered five concealed strontium ore bodies in the Mashantou area and submitted one large strontium ore deposit, providing direction for future exploration in the Lishui Basin [5]. - A comprehensive study established a mineralization model and exploration model for strontium in the Lishui Basin, offering an effective technical methodology for future exploration [5]. Group 4: Additional Discoveries - The northeastern part of the Lishui Basin is a significant area for strontium resources, with four large and medium-sized strontium deposits already identified [6]. - The project team also discovered multiple concealed copper, lead-zinc, and iron-sulfur ore bodies, proposing a new multi-metal comprehensive exploration approach for strontium, copper, and lead-zinc [6].

Core Insights - A new large strontium ore deposit has been discovered in the Lishui Basin, Jiangsu Province, with inferred resource amounts reaching 545.55 thousand tons and mineral amounts at 265.40 thousand tons, averaging a grade of 48.65% [1] - Strontium, an important rare metal, is widely used in special ceramic materials and magnetic alloy manufacturing, playing a significant role in national industrial development and technological advancement [1] - The Lishui Basin is recognized as a key area for strontium resources in Jiangsu, with four large and medium-sized strontium deposits already identified [2] Exploration and Research - The exploration team has spent four years addressing challenges such as surface coverage and human activity impacts, leading to new insights into the mineralization patterns and deep exploration potential in the Lishui Basin [1] - A new mineralization model and exploration methodology for strontium in the Lishui Basin have been established, providing a systematic approach for future exploration efforts [2] - The project team has also discovered multiple concealed copper, lead-zinc, and sulfur iron ore bodies, suggesting a new multi-metal exploration strategy that includes strontium, copper, and lead-zinc [2]

（记者 王晓波） 海南矿业（601969.SH）10月21日在投资者互动平台表示，布谷尼锂矿首批3万吨锂精矿产品已于10月 14日从马里布谷尼项目起运，后续将从科特迪瓦圣佩德罗港口通过海运至国内，顺利的情况下预计将于 明年年初运回。 海南自贸港建设在税收优惠、境内外资金流转、人才引进、境外业务拓展等方面对公 司发展都有积极影响。目前公司企业所得税和个人所得税均已均按15%优惠税率征收；公司氢氧化锂项 目将享受到原辅料免征进口关税、进口环节增值税和消费税；公司近期获批成为海南第5家海南自贸港 跨境资金集中运营中心，将更好满足公司全球化运营对跨境资金收付、汇兑的灵活进出需求。公司将持 续关注封关政策的更新，如简税制等政策细则的出台和海南自贸港鼓励类产业方向，以充分利用政策把 握有利的产业投资机会。 公司一直通过积极主动的市值管理，如落地现金分红、提升上市公司质量、 提高信息披露质量、加强投资者关系管理、进行股份回购并注销等方式不断增强公司的市场认可度和长 期投资价值。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问海南矿业非洲布谷尼锂矿的出口证既然已经办理 好了，生产的锂精矿什么时候能运回中国？12月18日海南 ...

Group 1 - The total copper production of China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (五矿资源) reached 127,000 tons in Q3 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year. Zinc production was 58,700 tons, up 26% compared to the same period last year [1] - Las Bambas mine ranked as the fifth largest copper mine globally, producing 102,900 tons of copper concentrate in Q3 2025, a 14% increase from Q3 2024, maintaining strong production momentum [1] - Kinsevere mine produced 14,800 tons of electrolytic copper, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by the ramp-up of the Kinsevere Expansion Project [1] Group 2 - Khoemacau mine produced 9,084 tons of copper concentrate, a 16% decrease year-on-year, primarily due to lower ore extraction and grade [2] - Dugald River mine produced 48,100 tons of zinc concentrate, a 38% increase year-on-year, attributed to operational optimizations [2] - Rosebery mine produced 10,600 tons of zinc concentrate, an 8% decrease year-on-year, due to lower zinc grades related to mining sequence [2] Group 3 - MLB (Minera Las Bambas S.A.) distributed a second dividend of $687 million to shareholders, with China Molybdenum receiving $429 million, which will be used to repay debt and enhance financial flexibility [3] - On October 8, 2025, China Molybdenum completed the issuance of $500 million zero-coupon convertible bonds due in 2030, netting approximately $494 million after expenses [3] - The initial conversion price of the bonds is set at HKD 8.40 per share, with the potential to convert into approximately 463 million shares, representing 3.67% of the expanded share capital [3]

Las Bambas矿山上半年产量已跻身全球第五大铜矿。第三季度，矿山生产102,875吨铜精矿含铜，较 2024年同期增长14%，继续保持第二季度的强劲生产势头。Chalcobamba与Ferrobamba矿坑的开采工作 保持稳定，未受任何外部因素干扰。选矿品位与回收率均保持在较高水平。 格隆汇10月21日丨五矿资源(01208.HK)公布，2025年第三季度，铜总产量(包括铜精矿含铜及电解铜)为 127,030吨，较去年同期增长11%。锌总产量为58,747吨，同比增长26%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) demonstrates resilient growth in its third-quarter performance, reaffirming a positive stance due to favorable macro and micro conditions for gold and copper prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The overseas business successfully spun off and listed, creating new growth opportunities [1] - The gold segment's profit contribution has increased, solidifying its role as a key growth engine [1] Group 2: Price and Earnings Forecast - The bank raised its earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 20% due to the upward momentum in metal prices and strong production fundamentals [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 28 HKD to 42 HKD, maintaining the stock's status as a top pick in the industry with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (02899) demonstrates resilient growth in its third-quarter performance, reaffirming a positive stance due to favorable macro and micro conditions for gold and copper prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's overseas business successfully spun off, creating new growth opportunities [1] - The gold segment's profit contribution has increased, solidifying its role as a growth engine [1] Group 2: Price Target and Earnings Forecast - Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 20% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 28 to HKD 42, maintaining its position as a preferred stock in the industry with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' forecast for the full year 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining's H-shares and A-shares, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Earnings Forecast Revisions - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent completion of the RG mine acquisition, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]

Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 14.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 57% increase year-on-year and an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters was 34.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [4] Production Volume - In Q3 2025, gold production increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter, while copper production decreased by 6% [5] - For the first three quarters, gold production totaled 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 24 tons [5] - Copper production for the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with Q3 production at 260,000 tons, impacted by flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [5] Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the average spot price of gold was $3,492 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, while the average copper price was $9,864 per ton, a 6% year-on-year increase [6] - Gold business gross profit accounted for 46% of the company's total gross profit in Q3 2025, up from 30% in 2024 [6] Cost Analysis - The sales cost of gold concentrate in Q3 2025 was 195 yuan per gram, an increase of 10 yuan per gram quarter-on-quarter [7] - The cost of copper concentrate was 22,128 yuan per ton, up 952 yuan per ton year-on-year, with electrolytic copper costing 36,544 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,261 yuan per ton year-on-year [7] - Cost increases were attributed to declining ore grades, increased transportation distances, and transitional costs from newly acquired companies [7] Industry Outlook - The weakening of the US dollar's credit and the onset of a US interest rate cut cycle are expected to support rising gold and copper prices [8] - For gold, central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves amid global uncertainties, with ETFs also expected to increase their gold holdings [9] - For copper, while short-term pressures may exist, supply tightness is anticipated due to Freeport's planned production cuts, with downstream demand expected to recover in Q4 2025 [9]