推动人工智能产业发展已经成为我国的一项"国策"，陆续出台了多项政策，"十五五"规划建议更明确， 要"全面实施'人工智能+'行动"。集中力量办大事是我国的体制优势，这一优势与市场行为紧密结合， 会迸发出强大活力。 人工智能领域的竞争已成为国际科技和经济竞争的新焦点。 近日，工业和信息化部、中央网信办、国家发展改革委等八部门联合印发了《"人工智能+制造"专项行 动实施意见》（下称《实施意见》），其中强调，到2027年，我国人工智能关键核心技术要实现安全可 靠供给，产业规模和赋能水平要稳居世界前列。 "关键核心技术""产业规模和赋能水平"是其中的关键词。这也是我国人工智能领域发展的着力点，两者 相辅相成，互为依托。 人工智能作为新一代信息技术，当仁不让地成为了第四次产业革命的核心。当前，包括我国在内的世界 各大经济体都在人工智能这个事关未来的产业赛道上加大投入、竞争领先地位。 我国人工智能产业目前已经取得了长足发展，从基础支撑、核心技术到行业应用的产业链条正在形成， 产业集群初步显现，一批创新活跃、特色鲜明的创新企业加速成长，新模式、新业态不断涌现。1月8 日，作为全球"大模型第一股"的内地企业智谱（02513.H ...

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院所 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2015】 75 号 作者：肖艳丽 K 投资咨询： Z0016612 2025年12月26日 中辉期货研究院 沪铜年报 1 摘 要 2026 铜牛狂奔——全球资源博弈和价格新纪元 沪铜 摘要 展望2026年，作为中国十五五规划开局之年，在全球货币宽松预期下，美联储 新主席走马上任，特朗普中期选举临近，宏观整体偏积极。基本面，矿端铜精矿短 缺，冶炼端行业强势反内卷，现货端美国持续虹吸全球铜库存，三重供应扰动叠加 对铜价下方形成强支撑。中美围绕人工智能和半导体，芯片等行业的第四次产业革 命竞争带来巨大电力缺口，光伏和新能源汽车等绿色铜需求方兴未艾，全球精炼铜 供需缺口逐年扩大。铜作为兼具金融和工业属性的宏观品种，在流动性宽松周期和 中美博弈大背景下，战略价值和价格中枢稳步抬升。 建议铜多单继续持有，移动止盈保护，谨慎追高，以回调逢低试多为主，警惕 宏观情绪消退后，需求不足带来高位回调风险。 2026年年中鲍威尔将卸任，短期宏观利多兑现叠加传统淡季开启，铜或面临高 位 ...

当前中美在人工智能领域处于全球前列，美方曾明确提及人工智能是中美之间的竞争焦点。朱光耀表 示，"客观来讲，我们在算力上与美国仍有差距，这也是美国通过高端芯片出口管制试图维持领先的原 因。但外部压力反而激励中国坚持自立自强，'十四五'期间在人工智能领域实现了突破性发展。" "近期华尔街不断加大对中国AI领域的投资布局、调高投资预期，争夺市场先机，这恰恰说明国际投资 者认可中国AI产业的发展潜力与未来回报。"朱光耀说道。 他进一步分析，中美两国在AI发展方向上一致，但具体路径存在明显差异："中国坚持开源(open source) 路径，通过开放技术赋能全球；美国则倾向于以闭源垄断方式控制人工智能的全球化发展。"朱光耀强 调，无论路径与目标存在何种差异，中美在AI伦理与规则制定上必须开展合作。"作为全球AI发展的两 大引领者，若无法在伦理标准、规则制定上真诚协作、协调政策、形成共识，可能导致AI发展脱离人 类控制，引发系列风险。因此，从长远战略考量，中美在AI领域的合作不可或缺。" 中国经济网北京12月26日讯(记者何欣)当前，全球正深入推进以数字技术为核心的第四次产业革命，中 国AI产业如何把握发展机遇？财政部原 ...

中国经济网北京12月20日讯(记者何欣)当前，全球正深入推进以数字技术为核心的第四次产业革命，中 国AI产业如何把握发展机遇？面对AI泡沫争议，中国式AI发展之路该如何走？财政部原副部长朱光耀 近日做客中国经济网《深谈》节目，围绕数字经济相关话题进行深入解读。 当前中美在人工智能领域处于全球前列，美方曾明确提及人工智能是中美之间的竞争焦点。朱光耀表 示，"客观来讲，我们在算力上与美国仍有差距，这也是美国通过高端芯片出口管制试图维持领先的原 因。但外部压力反而激励中国坚持自立自强，'十四五'期间在人工智能领域实现了突破性发展。" 朱光耀强调，中国拥有全球最大的AI应用场景、充足的电力保障和高效的基础设施。"中国的基础支撑 优势是美国难以比拟的。可以肯定的是，中国已稳居AI全球第一梯队，与美国的差距不断缩小，在电 力保障、基础设施和场景应用(海量数据（603138）支撑)方面具备独特优势。" 他进一步分析，中美两国在AI发展方向上一致，但具体路径存在明显差异："中国坚持开源(open source) 路径，通过开放技术赋能全球；美国则倾向于以闭源垄断方式控制人工智能的全球化发展。"朱光耀强 调，无论路径与目标存在 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and Hold [2] - Silver: Long - term Hold [2] - Copper: Long - term Hold [2] - Zinc: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Lead: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Tin: Under Pressure [2] - Aluminum: Rebound [2] - Nickel: Rebound [2] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously Bullish [2] Core Views - The overall investment opportunities and risks in the non - ferrous metals and new energy metals sectors are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, gold has strong short - and long - term investment value due to risk - aversion sentiment and long - term support factors; while zinc is expected to have limited upside potential in the short - term and is a bearish configuration in the medium - to - long - term due to supply increase and demand decrease [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: G2 relations stagnated, the US government remained shut down, and the Russia - Ukraine issue showed a negative turn, leading to a strong rally in gold and silver prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Although investors worry about gold being overbought and potential rebounds in interest rates and the dollar, the overall gold holdings are still at a low level. Long - term factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring support the long - term bullish trend of gold. For silver, there is a risk of short - squeeze in the short - term due to low inventory, and long - term demand is driven by global policies [4][2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long terms. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidated in a short - term high - level range, oscillating around 85,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Freeport - McMoRan plans to change the copper concentrate pricing benchmark, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to a wait - and - see attitude among downstream buyers. However, the demand for green copper in industries such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles remains strong [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper with trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long - term, be bullish on copper. Short - term, focus on the range of 83,500 - 88,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc stopped falling and rebounded slightly [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts an increase in the global refined zinc supply surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase in October. Weak real estate and infrastructure have dragged down galvanized zinc demand. Overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft - squeeze risk, and domestic social inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, although zinc has rebounded due to improved macro and sector sentiment and inventory reduction, the upside space is limited. Consider selling hedging at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is a bearish configuration in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for LME zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, while alumina continued to be weak [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. In October, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was high, and inventory increased during the holiday. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate increased slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect arrivals, and the market is in an oversupply situation [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, consider buying Shanghai aluminum on dips, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized slightly, and stainless steel rebounded slightly [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the supply disruption of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain, with increased inventory and production [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a gain of over 2% throughout the day [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: In September, the shipment of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased. In October, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, with domestic supply and production increasing. Overseas lithium ore supply is expected to increase in November. Lithium battery and cathode production increased in October, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in contract 2601 within the range of 74,300 - 76,000 yuan/ton [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Hold for the long - term [1] - Copper: Hold for the long - term [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] - Lead: Bearish on rebound [1] - Tin: Bearish on rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bearish on rebound [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish on rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices are rising due to unresolved international issues such as G2 relations, US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France. Long - term, gold may continue its bull run benefiting from global monetary easing, weakening dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to be in high demand in the long - term due to copper concentrate shortages and the booming green copper demand, although short - term, downstream is hesitant due to high prices [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, with domestic demand in the peak season being weak [1][9][10] - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure, waiting for demand support [1][12][13] - Nickel price is weak due to sufficient supply and uncertain downstream consumption [1][16][17] - Lithium carbonate supply and demand are both increasing, with prices in a wide - range oscillation [1][21][22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Gold prices are strong due to no progress in G2 relations, US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France [2] Basic Logic - Sino - US relations have no progress, with the US adding more Chinese entities to the export control list and implementing 301 measures. Fed official Milan calls for interest rate cuts. Long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, weakening dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] Strategy Recommendation - For domestic gold, maintain a long - position mindset both in the short and long term as the 935 support is obvious. For silver, there is support at 11500. Pay close attention to macro - sentiment, market rhythm, US fiscal trends, and Fed policy signals, and consider going long on pullbacks [4] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range, oscillating around 85,000 [6] Industry Logic - Global copper concentrate supply is tight. The copper smelting industry is undergoing changes, with expected production contraction in the fourth quarter. Downstream is hesitant due to high prices, but green copper demand remains resilient [6] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions and set trailing stops. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Short - term, focus on the range of 83,500 - 88,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc Market Review - Zinc price is under pressure and its fluctuations are narrowing [9] Industry Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak. Overseas inventory squeeze risk persists, and domestic inventory is increasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing short positions and consider selling hedging on rallies. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina continues its weak trend [12] Industry Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, and inventory is increasing. Alumina market is in surplus in the short term [13] Strategy Recommendation - Consider going long on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel continues its weak trend [16] Industry Logic - Overseas nickel ore supply disturbances are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. Downstream stainless steel consumption in the peak season is uncertain [17] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 rises and then falls, closing slightly lower [20] Industry Logic - In October, the supply - demand balance is tight. Domestic supply and production are increasing, and overseas lithium ore supply is expected to increase in November. Lithium battery and cathode production are growing, and social inventory is expected to decline [21] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 72,600 - 73,800 for LC2601 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold (★★★) [1] - Silver: Stabilize and go long (★★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term hold (★★) [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound with limited upside, long - term sell on rallies (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rebound (★★) [1] - Nickel: Under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Pullback (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions such as unstable G2 relations, chaotic situations in Japan and France, and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment, making gold and silver good investment choices both in the short and long term [1][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long run due to factors like copper concentrate shortages and the explosion of green copper demand, despite short - term market fluctuations [1][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so it is a short - side configuration in the long term, with limited short - term upside [1][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound in the short term, although facing inventory pressure [1][14] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [1][18] - Lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][22] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical chaos causes risk - aversion sentiment to heat up, leading to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices [2] - **Basic Logic**: Unresolved Sino - US relations, political instability in Japan and France, long - term positive factors for gold such as global monetary easing and dollar credit decline, and a continuous supply shortage of silver [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long term; for silver, pay attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider long - term holding [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper gaps up and rises, and London copper rises by over 4% [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply concerns intensify due to mine accidents and production slowdowns. Production is expected to decline, and downstream demand is strong in green industries [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Use trailing stops for short - term long positions. Be optimistic about copper in the long run and focus on specific price ranges [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fall under pressure, and London zinc fluctuates around the 3000 mark [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand is weak. There is a risk of a soft squeeze on London zinc inventory [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term rebound with limited upside. Sell - hedge and go short on rallies in the long term, and focus on specific price ranges [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is an inventory build - up in electrolytic aluminum, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, pay attention to downstream processing enterprise operations, and focus on specific price ranges [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices fall under pressure, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel supply is sufficient, and stainless steel demand is uncertain during the peak season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, pay attention to downstream consumption improvement, and focus on specific price ranges [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower and fluctuates at a low level throughout the day [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Domestic production hits a new high, and demand remains firm. Social inventory may continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, and focus on the price range of 2601 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the copper pricing logic shifted from "dominated by Chinese demand" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control", with the financial attribute of copper significantly enhanced. The copper price showed a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then fluctuate", and the fluctuation range increased significantly [3]. - The deepening of the Sino - US game reshaped the global copper resource flow, pricing mechanism, and trade pattern. The copper price center will be systematically raised due to the re - evaluation of strategic value, and the fluctuation will intensify due to the fierce game [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the copper market faces three key points: the path after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut and the speculation of a US economic recession; the variables in the Sino - US game, especially whether the Sino - US tariff negotiation in November will be postponed again; and the re - balance of global copper supply and demand and the inflection point of global copper visible inventory destocking [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold copper speculative long orders, set trailing stops, and be cautious about chasing high prices, mainly trying long on dips. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, as well as the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the First Three - Quarter Market - In early January, due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy on China and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai copper started to rebound from the bottom, breaking through the 76,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In February, the lower - than - expected copper inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and increased overseas mine - end disturbances pushed Shanghai copper to break through the 77,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper led to a rapid widening of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Shanghai copper broke through the 80,000 - yuan psychological barrier [6]. - In April, after the implementation of the global tariff war and the exemption of copper tariffs, there was a sharp reversal in expectations, causing copper prices to plummet. Subsequently, with the easing of Sino - US relations, copper prices oscillated and recovered [7]. - In June, due to the reignition of the Middle East conflict and the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, copper prices increased against the seasonal trend [7]. - In July and August, Trump's repeated tariff policies on copper led to significant fluctuations in copper prices. In September, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the supply shortage expectation of copper concentrates, copper prices reached new highs for the year [8]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Reciprocal Tariff Era and Global Economic Slowdown - In the US reciprocal tariff era, Trump's unpredictable policies disrupted market confidence in the US and global economies, leading to a surge in market risk - aversion sentiment. WTO predicted a decline in global goods trade volume, and IMF predicted a slowdown in global economic GDP growth [11]. - Global major economies' inflation situations were differentiated, and central banks' monetary policies shifted from tightening to easing. Geopolitical risks increased significantly, and military use of copper might increase due to the global arms race [14][19]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff (TACO) and Increased Policy Uncertainty - Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource", and his copper tariff policies had a profound impact on the global copper market. If the 25% copper import tariff policy were implemented, it would distort the global copper trade supply path [21][22]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper increased significantly, stimulating cross - market arbitrage. Although the tariff on refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, Trump's tariff policies accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased capital risk - aversion sentiment [23][33]. 2.3 US Employment Pressure and Attention to the Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October - US employment data was weak, and inflation showed signs of rising. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the market expected further interest rate cuts in October and December. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy on copper was greater than that of the domestic central bank's policy [36][42][46]. 2.4 Economic Cycle Reincarnation and Copper at the Eve of a Historic Demand Boom - Globally, the economy was at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle. Copper, as an important raw material, was on the verge of a historic demand boom [47]. - Domestically, although there were signs of economic recovery, there were still drag factors such as the real - estate slump. Copper was sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic and foreign monetary policies [50]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Grasberg Mine Shutdown in Indonesia Aggravates the Copper Ore Supply - Demand Gap - Global copper ore supply faced challenges such as long - term insufficient capital expenditure, falling ore grades, and increased mining difficulties. The shutdown of major mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and political protests at some mines led to a reduction in global copper ore supply [52][55]. 3.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees and Industry Calls for Anti - Involution - Global copper smelting capacity utilization remained high, but copper concentrate supply was short. Smelter processing fees were deeply inverted, and the industry called for anti - involution. The government issued relevant policies to support the development of the copper industry [59][60][64]. 3.3 High Refined Copper Output and Continued Pressure on Imports - In 2025, global smelting capacity was released at a high level, and domestic refined copper output reached a record high. However, due to factors such as high premiums of US and LME copper and the closure of the import window, domestic refined copper imports were weak, and exports increased [67]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory and Tight Non - US Inventory - Global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, mainly concentrated in US COMEX warehouses, while non - US inventory was tight. High copper prices had an inhibitory effect on demand, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory inflection point [72][77]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Electricity Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, led to a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn stimulated copper demand. China's power investment maintained resilience, and overseas power markets were also booming [78][79][80]. 4.2 Real Estate in a Difficult Bottom - Grinding Phase and Low Market Confidence - The real - estate market was in a downturn, with falling prices, weak sales, and a large inventory of unsold properties. This had a negative impact on overall copper demand [86][88]. 4.3 The Impact of the Trade - in Policy and the Withdrawal of National Subsidies on the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry's demand for copper maintained resilience, but with the withdrawal of national subsidies and reduced overseas replenishment demand, the industry's performance was expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [91][92]. 4.4 High - Growth of New Energy Vehicles and Booming Green Copper Demand - New energy vehicles had a high copper consumption rate, and global new energy vehicle copper consumption was expected to increase significantly in 2025, becoming an important incremental factor in copper demand [94][95]. 4.5 The Return of Speculative Forces and the Repetition of the 2024 Copper Price Rally - Speculative forces in the copper market became active again, and overseas speculative funds' actions had an impact on copper prices. China needed to enhance its position as a copper pricing center [98][104]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2025 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Overall, the supply of overseas copper concentrates was tight, while domestic smelting capacity was operating at a high level. The supply - demand of refined copper shifted from a tight balance to a slight shortage, both domestically and globally [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Callback to go long (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound (★), with a view of selling on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] Core Views - For precious metals, the geopolitical situation and central bank gold - buying support long - term prices, but short - term adjustments occur due to events like the cease - fire in the Middle East [1][3] - For base metals, supply - demand imbalances lead to different price trends. For example, copper is long - term bullish due to supply shortages and strong demand, while zinc is a bearish configuration in the medium - long term due to increasing supply and weakening demand [1][7][11] - For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, policy expectations and demand support prices, but attention should be paid to supply - side factors such as mine复产 [1][23] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market situation**: After the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, the safe - haven sentiment partially withdrew, and gold adjusted from its high level [2] - **Logic**: Factors such as the US government shutdown, political uncertainties in France and Japan, and central bank gold - buying support the long - term rise of gold prices. The cease - fire in the Middle East causes short - term adjustments [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held. Short - term investors can buy on dips. Domestic gold may test the 900 support level [1][4] Silver - **Market situation**: It fluctuates greatly following gold, with a significant drop after reaching a high [1] - **Logic**: Global policy stimulus leads to strong demand and an obvious supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices. Gold price fluctuations impact the silver market [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term investors can try to go long, and long - term investors should hold [1] Copper - **Market situation**: Shanghai copper reached the 88,000 - yuan mark and then quickly fell back, while LME copper was close to its historical high [7] - **Logic**: Supply shortages due to mine accidents and production cuts, along with strong demand from emerging industries, drive up prices. However, high prices suppress short - term demand [7] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stops. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term bullish. Shanghai copper focus range is [84,500, 88,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper is [10,000, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][8] Zinc - **Market situation**: Zinc prices rose overnight and then fell back, with LME zinc back above the 3,000 - dollar mark. The domestic and overseas trends are divergent, with the domestic market being weaker [11] - **Logic**: Domestic supply is relatively loose, while overseas inventories are low. Demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak, but export may increase [11] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Sell - hedging can be arranged on rallies. In the medium - long term, it is a bearish configuration. Shanghai zinc focus range is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton [12] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, while alumina continued to be weak [14] - **Logic**: There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The domestic aluminum inventory increased during the holiday, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [15] - **Strategy**: In the short term, take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is [20,600 - 21,500] [16] Nickel - **Market situation**: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices slightly declined [18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and the domestic pure nickel inventory increased slightly. The downstream consumption season is uncertain, and the inventory of stainless steel increased [19] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The main contract LC2511 rose and then fell back, with the late - session gain narrowing [22] - **Logic**: Policy requirements and export controls impact the market. The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the battery industry is relatively stable, which supports the price [23] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [24]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].