| 燃料油早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/21 | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/05/14 | 406.15 | 451.49 | -1.58 | 606.04 | -154.55 | 17.57 | 45.34 | | 2025/05/15 | 399.03 | 442.66 | -0.90 | 598.55 | -155.89 | 18.05 | 43.63 | | 2025/05/16 | 402.97 | 447.36 | -1.01 | 595.17 | -147.81 | 16.77 | 4 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-21 主营炼厂上调价格，终端需求改善有限 市场分析 1、5月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2507合约下午收盘价3510元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨15元/吨，涨幅 0.43%；持仓168910手，环比下降1182手，成交133528手，环比上涨9154手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3700—4086元/吨；山东，3450—3600元/吨；华南，3400—3430元/吨； 华东，3500—3590元/吨。 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 昨日山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分主营炼厂上调结算价格， 对市场情绪形成一定提振。目前供应增量有限，库存处于低位区间，市场下方存在支撑。但另一方面，消费端改 善幅度仍不足，尤其降雨天气增加将限制项目施工及终端需求，并制约市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | ...

5月20日，随着发车指令的下达，来自全球的130辆赛车轰鸣着驶向塔克拉玛干沙漠，由中国石化爱 跑品牌独家冠名的2025中国环塔国际拉力赛在新疆阿克苏正式开幕。本届赛事吸引了来自全球12个国家 的130余名顶尖选手参赛，选手们将在13天内穿越5200公里的极限赛道，挑战塔克拉玛干沙漠的浩瀚与 天山峡谷的险峻。中国石化将以高品质燃油和综合能源补给服务全程护航赛事，传递爱跑品牌"为爱奔 跑，洁净所能"的价值主张。 爱跑环塔强强联合，实现"能源+体育"新突破。中国环塔国际拉力赛以塔克拉玛干沙漠为核心，辐 射新疆14个地州，以"挑战极限、突破自我"精神内核，吸引了全球越野爱好者的目光，2024年起正式升 级为中国唯一国际越野赛事。此次爱跑独家冠名2025环塔拉力赛，为参赛车辆提供"动力+环保"双重保 障，为赛事注入更多激情与活力。 助力激活丝路经济，打造"能源+文旅"新范式。以赛事为契机，中国石化同步启动"跟着环塔看新 疆"自驾游活动，打造"南北疆大环线""独库精品环线""西游丝路环线""香妃南疆环线"四条精品自驾游线 路，积极拓展停车养车、购物休闲、咖啡餐饮、景点权益、旅游文创等特色服务，为车主提供更加清洁 强劲的新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing investment and development in green methanol fuel by major Chinese oil companies, particularly China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), as they explore new energy sources and applications in the context of energy transition [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Green Methanol Development - CNPC has launched a biomass natural gas to green methanol project, producing the first drop of green methanol that meets international standards [2] - The green methanol industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities, driven by its advantages in energy transition and applications in the automotive sector [1] - The establishment of methanol refueling stations has seen significant progress, with CNPC's stations achieving notable sales figures, such as 2.6 tons on the first day of operation in Inner Mongolia and 2055 tons in total for the year [2] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Other major oil companies, including Sinopec and CNOOC, are also actively investing in methanol energy, with Sinopec signing strategic agreements for methanol refueling station construction and collaboration on green methanol projects [3] - Sinopec's biomass-based green methanol project in Guangxi has received approval, indicating a commitment to expanding its green methanol production capacity [3] - CNOOC is advancing its green methanol projects in Guangxi and has partnered with BASF to establish a joint laboratory for green methanol and ammonia technologies [3] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy Initiatives - The article discusses the strategic initiatives of the "Big Three" oil companies in hydrogen energy, with Sinopec launching China's first cross-regional hydrogen heavy truck corridor [4] - Sinopec has established a significant number of hydrogen refueling stations, becoming a leader in the global hydrogen refueling station network [4] - The integration of hydrogen refueling stations with existing fuel stations is being pursued to enhance the supply of multiple energy sources [4]

Group 1: Fund Market Insights - Financial and real estate themed funds continue to show strong performance with a net value increase of 1.45%, while defense and military funds experienced a slight decline [3] - The domestic new fund market is recovering with 24 new funds established and 34 new funds issued [3] - Different investment range ETFs experienced net outflows, with large-cap broad-based ETFs being the main direction of outflow, totaling -12.89 billion [3] Group 2: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - Oil demand is expected to rebound, driven by positive demand expectations following the suspension of tariff increases in the Sino-US Geneva trade talks [4] - As of May 16, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $65.33 and $61.93 per barrel, reflecting increases of 2.3% and 1.4% respectively from the previous week [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the "three major oil companies" and their associated oil service enterprises amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4] Group 3: Basic Chemical Industry - Recent policies have been introduced to support the development of the low-altitude economy, with a projected market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [5] Group 4: Retail Sector Performance - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, slightly below market expectations [8] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry surged by 25.3% in April, driven by a low base and high demand for investment and preservation of value [8] - Categories such as sports and entertainment, home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment maintained double-digit growth rates [8] Group 5: New City Holdings - In April 2025, the company reported rental income of 1.06 billion yuan, with a cumulative rental income of 4.28 billion yuan for the first four months [9] - The total number of leased properties as of April 2025 was 174, with a total construction area of approximately 16.044 million square meters [9] - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 1.76 billion yuan in April, representing a year-on-year decline of 52.5%, with a cumulative contract sales amount of 6.86 billion yuan for the first four months, down 56.2% year-on-year [9]

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has approved a cash dividend distribution plan for the year 2024, proposing a distribution of 1 RMB per 10 shares to shareholders, excluding repurchased shares [1][2]. Summary by Sections Dividend Distribution Plan - The total share capital of Rongsheng Petrochemical is 10,125,525,000 shares, from which 553,232,858 shares that have been repurchased are excluded, resulting in a base of 9,572,292,142 shares for the dividend distribution [1][2]. - The actual cash dividend amount totals 957,229,214.20 RMB, calculated as 9,572,292,142 shares multiplied by the distribution ratio of 0.1 RMB per share [1][5]. Dividend Payment Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders, with no stock dividends or capital reserves being converted into shares [2]. - The cash dividend per share is calculated as 0.0945362 RMB, derived from the total cash dividend divided by the total share capital, including repurchased shares [5]. Key Dates - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for May 27, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is May 28, 2025 [3]. Eligibility and Taxation - The dividend distribution applies to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shenzhen Branch, as of the record date [3]. - Different tax rates will apply based on the type of shares held, with specific provisions for Hong Kong investors and domestic investors [2].

Report Overview - The report is the second in a series on the correlation analysis and arbitrage strategy principles of BU-FU-LU futures, focusing on the feasibility study of arbitrage strategies between asphalt and fuel oil [2]. - It aims to understand the industrial relationship between asphalt and fuel oil, review significant historical fluctuations in their price spreads, and provide trading suggestions for 2025 based on statistical analysis [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Asphalt and fuel oil are parallel products at the refining production end, with their raw materials mainly from heavy components produced by primary refinery units. However, their downstream applications, supply-demand patterns, and pricing methods differ significantly [5]. - The fundamental situation has evolved from LU being significantly stronger than BU and FU, and BU being stronger than FU, to the current situation where FU has good demand, BU has weak supply and demand, and LU has oversupply. In 2025, opportunities for narrowing BU-FU spreads and widening BU-LU spreads should be actively sought [58]. - The statistical analysis of historical spread data shows that the BU-FU spread has a trending nature when converging, and the BU-LU spread has a rolling mean reversion property, which can assist in spread trading [60]. Summary by Directory 1. Understanding the Relationship between Asphalt and Fuel Oil from the Industrial Chain Perspective - At the refining production end, straight-run fuel oil, the heaviest component produced by atmospheric and vacuum distillation of crude oil, can be used as a raw material for asphalt production. It can also be directly sold or processed into different types of fuel oil [5]. - In the downstream, asphalt is mainly used for road and waterproofing purposes, while fuel oil is mainly used for marine fuel, power generation, and as a secondary raw material. Their supply-demand patterns and pricing methods also differ significantly [6]. 2. Review of Historical Major Fluctuations in Asphalt and Fuel Oil Price Spreads 2.1 2021 - 2022: Tightening Raw Materials and Demand Recovery Drove Asphalt to Strengthen, with High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Continuously Weaker than Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - From April to May 2021, BU was significantly stronger than FU and LU. Positive infrastructure expectations and the tax increase on diluted asphalt were the main drivers. The tax increase on diluted asphalt increased the direct cost of this popular raw material for local refineries by 1,276 yuan/ton, about 1/3 of the market price [14][15]. - In 2022, due to sanctions on Russia, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased significantly, while the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil remained dominant in the global marine fuel market. The price of high-sulfur fuel oil rose less than that of low-sulfur fuel oil and diesel. In contrast, the asphalt market gradually improved, and the BU-FU spread accelerated upward in the third quarter and reached its annual high in the fourth quarter. The BU-LU spread initially declined and then recovered [16]. 2.2 2023 - 2024: Continuous Improvement in High-Sulfur Supply-Demand Pattern, with the BU-FU Spread Continuously Narrowing - From March to August 2023, the BU-FU and BU-LU spreads both narrowed, especially the BU-FU spread. The strengthening of high-sulfur fuel oil was mainly driven by demand, including increased demand in the Singapore marine fuel market, power generation in the Middle East and South Asia, and refinery processing in China. In contrast, the asphalt market was weak, although there were some short-term supports [31]. - In 2024, the focus of the fuel oil market shifted from demand to supply. Drone attacks on Russian refineries led to a significant reduction in fuel oil exports, pushing up the price of high-sulfur fuel oil in Asia. The asphalt market had weak demand and supply, resulting in a continuous narrowing of the BU-FU spread. The BU-LU spread gradually rebounded from the bottom [35]. 2.3 2025: The BU-FU Spread May Continue to Narrow in the Second Quarter, and the BU-LU Spread May Expand in the Second Half of the Year - In 2025, the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil remains promising, while the asphalt market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and the low-sulfur fuel oil market has overall loose supply and weak consumption prospects [39]. - In the second quarter, the demand for fuel oil is strong, while the demand for asphalt may be weak due to possible continuous rainfall in the south. The BU-FU spread may continue to narrow. In the third and fourth quarters, the demand for asphalt is expected to improve seasonally, while the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil may be weak. The BU-LU spread may expand [41]. 3. Statistical Analysis of Asphalt and Fuel Oil Price Spreads and Specific Strategy Applications - Descriptive statistics show that the BU-FU spread has a right-skewed and low-kurtosis distribution, indicating that BU is relatively stronger than FU with a slightly higher probability. The BU-LU spread has a left-skewed distribution closer to the normal distribution, with a lower probability of extreme values [52]. - The BU-FU and BU-LU spread sequences are not stationary time series, but their first-order differences are stationary. This suggests that the spread volatility may have relatively fixed statistical laws [52]. - For the BU-FU spread, a trend-tracking strategy is suitable, especially when the trend is established and strengthened. For the BU-LU spread, a statistical arbitrage strategy based on rolling mean reversion can be considered [53]. - The analysis of 2025 data shows that the BU-FU spread has shifted from right-skewed to left-skewed, with an increased probability of extreme fluctuations. The BU-LU spread has a deeper left-skew, but the probability of extreme low values has decreased [55].

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, Inner Mongolia's crude oil production reached 539,000 tons, an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate slowed down by 13.2 percentage points [1] - The crude oil production accounted for 1.0% of the national output of 54.088 million tons during the same period [1] - The growth rate in Inner Mongolia was 7.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, Inner Mongolia's crude oil production was 187,000 tons, reflecting an 11.6% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 10.8 percentage points compared to March 2024 [2] - The production in March represented 1.0% of the national output of 19.025 million tons [2] - The growth rate in March was 8.1 percentage points higher than the national average [2]

Core Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, sulfuric acid production in Zhejiang Province reached 647,000 tons, representing a 6.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 9.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 11.0 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total sulfuric acid production for the same period in the country was 27,368,884 tons, with Zhejiang accounting for 2.4% of the national total [1] Monthly Analysis - In March 2025, sulfuric acid production in Zhejiang Province was 227,000 tons, which is a 6.4% decrease compared to March 2024, but the growth rate was 4.0 percentage points higher than the same month in 2024 [3] - The production in March represented 2.5% of the national total sulfuric acid production of 9,212,782.4 tons for that month [3]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Jiangsu Dongfang Shenghong Co., Ltd. operates in the petrochemical industry, focusing on sustainable development and innovation [2][3] - The company emphasizes a value philosophy of "safety, integrity, innovation, and transcendence" to achieve stable and sustainable growth [2] - In 2024, the company expanded its production capacity, including a new 200,000 tons/year of photovoltaic-grade EVA, bringing total capacity to 500,000 tons/year [3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The company established the world's first industrial chain from CO2 to polyester fiber, winning the "International Textile Federation Sustainable and Innovation Award" [3][4] - R&D investment reached 6.35 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with 3,797 R&D personnel [14] - The PDH smart factory project was recognized as the "Most Influential Engineering Project in China's Automation Field in 2023" [15] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit increased by 38.19%, supported by low crude oil prices and recovering demand for downstream chemical products [7] - The company's overseas revenue in 2024 was 6.753 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 5% of total revenue [11] Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a leading position in the EVA market with a production capacity of 500,000 tons/year, benefiting from economies of scale [6] - The company has developed a comprehensive product line, including recycled polyester fiber with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year, serving over 30 well-known brands [9] Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - The company plans to implement an AI development strategy to enhance vertical integration across its supply chain and focus on new energy and materials [4] - Challenges include navigating a complex external environment and ensuring collaboration among various business segments to maximize the "1+N" strategy [7][8]