宏观日报 | 2025-12-17 上游价格持续回落，关注扩内需政策推进 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）欧盟将放弃2035年内燃机禁令。欧盟拟放宽新车排放标准，取消对内燃机的实质性禁令。欧盟委员 会将降低原定2035年起禁止销售汽油和柴油新车的标准，转而允许部分插电式混合动力车和配备燃油增程器的电 动汽车上市。新提案要求到下个十年中期尾气排放量较当前目标减少90%（原目标为100%减排）。这一转变背后， 是因为欧洲的汽车制造商在与特斯拉和比亚迪等中国电动汽车的竞争中举步维艰。 服务行业：1）针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同志表示， 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提 振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加 力扩内需。明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色 ...

Group 1 - Barclays raised Southwest Airlines' target price from $34 to $56, indicating a significant upward adjustment [1] - The rating for Southwest Airlines was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy," reflecting increased confidence in the company's performance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipated surge in public travel and leisure demand during the New Year's holiday, with a report indicating increased search interest for keywords like "New Year" and "cross-year" on the Tongcheng Travel platform [1] - The official holiday schedule for New Year's is from January 1 to January 3, with the potential for an extended 8-day holiday by taking leave from December 29 to 31, leading to a strong public willingness to travel [1] - In the secondary market, stocks related to airlines, hotels, and scenic spots showed active performance, with companies like Nanjing Business Travel, Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Dalian Shengya, and Air China leading the gains [1] Group 2 - The tourism ETF (562510), which tracks the CSI Tourism Theme Index, has been rising for several consecutive days, covering sectors such as tourist attractions, airports, retail, and hotel dining [1] - The tourism sector is experiencing significant heat due to multiple catalysts, including winter sports tourism, overseas travel, visa-free policies, and the combination of New Year's and Spring Festival holidays [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.10%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.03% [1] - Energy metals, pork industry, and lithium mining sectors showed the highest gains, while aerospace, dairy, and eSIM sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3822.51, down 0.06%, with 684 gainers and 1202 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 12927.39, up 0.10%, with 942 gainers and 1411 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3072.62, up 0.03%, with 452 gainers and 710 losers [2] External Market - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.62%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Nasdaq up 0.23% [3] - November U.S. job additions were 64,000, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about the economy [3] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with notable drops in Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and NetEase, while some electric vehicle companies saw gains [3] Industry Insights - CICC predicts a turning point in the chemical industry cycle, citing a decline in capital expenditure and the exit of outdated overseas capacity, leading to low growth in industry capacity [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the rapid development of In Vivo CART technology, with significant early data from companies like Esobiotec [5] - Huaxi Securities suggests focusing on consumer sectors as technology rotation slows, with expectations of policy support for domestic demand [6] - CITIC Securities notes a "K-shaped recovery" in the Chinese consumer market, driven by supply-side constraints and wealth effects from high-net-worth individuals [8] - Galaxy Securities indicates that the securities sector is at a historical low valuation, with policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting investor confidence [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure on December 18, enhancing convenience for personnel movement and expanding duty-free product categories, which may directly benefit the duty-free, hotel, and aviation sectors in the tourism industry [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - The tourism industry is entering a dual benefit cycle of "policy dividends + demand release" with the upcoming New Year and the longest Spring Festival [1] - The new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan, effective from November 1, 2025, has shown significant results in Sanya, with duty-free sales reaching 1.63 billion yuan in the first month, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, marking the highest monthly growth rate since 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The tourism ETF (562510) tracks the CSI Tourism Theme Index, holding stocks like China Duty Free Group and Hainan Airport (600515), covering various sectors including scenic spots, airports, duty-free, and hotel catering [1] - The combination of Hainan's closure, the ice and snow economy, and the Spring Festival holiday is expected to create multiple catalysts for growth in the tourism sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that certain high-end consumer sectors in China, including luxury goods, high-end beauty, air travel, and high-end residential markets in core cities, have generally outperformed previous market expectations, reflecting a significant "K-shaped recovery" in the consumer market [1] High-End Consumer Sectors - The luxury goods and high-end beauty market in China showed signs of stabilization in Q3 2025, entering a gradual recovery phase, with top brands like Hermès maintaining steady sales due to high customer loyalty [6] - The Macau gaming sector demonstrated a notable recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) in November increasing by 14.4% year-on-year to 21.09 billion MOP, recovering to 92% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019 [4] - The high-end retail properties and luxury hotels have achieved a leading recovery in foot traffic and revenue due to their scarcity and brand barriers, despite overall demand pressures [1][4] Policy and Market Dynamics - Policy improvements, such as the optimization of the offshore duty-free policy and the upcoming closure of Hainan, are expected to create potential incremental space for growth in the luxury sector [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization in driving operational turning points, particularly in high-end consumption areas like outbound tourism, hotels, gaming, and luxury goods [1][15] Real Estate Market - The high-end real estate market is characterized by a "K-shaped recovery" driven by quality supply, with capital and purchasing power increasingly concentrating on top projects with absolute advantages in location, product, brand, and operation [9] - The overall recovery in the real estate market remains slow, with a complex macro environment and high unemployment rates impacting consumer confidence [7] Hotel Industry - The mid-to-high-end hotel sector saw an average RevPAR increase of approximately 4% year-on-year in October-November 2025, benefiting from strong leisure tourism and a slight recovery in business demand [11] - The supply growth in the hotel industry is expected to slow down from 7%-8% in 2025 to 5%-6% in 2026 due to extended investment return cycles [11] Duty-Free Market - The offshore duty-free sales in Hainan showed signs of recovery, with sales turning positive in September and expanding in October-November, supported by wealth effect transmission and policy optimization [12] - The upcoming full closure of Hainan in December 2025 is anticipated to further enhance the overall development of the tourism retail market [12] Aviation Sector - The aviation industry faces supply constraints due to delays in aircraft introductions and engine repairs, which limit effective capacity growth [14] - Demand recovery and structural optimization are expected to accelerate, with airlines optimizing route structures to enhance profitability [14]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has declined for the third consecutive day, closing down 0.24% at 6,800.26 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 302.30 points (-0.62%) to 48,114.26 points. The Nasdaq Composite, however, saw a slight increase of 0.23%, closing at 23,111.46 points, indicating a divergence within the technology sector [2][3]. Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 64,000 non-farm jobs were added in November, exceeding market expectations of 45,000. However, the October data was significantly revised down from a mild increase to a net loss of 105,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly decline in nearly two years. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, surpassing the expected 4.5%, suggesting a potential cooling in the labor market [4]. Energy Sector - The energy sector faced declines as WTI crude oil prices fell to their lowest level since early 2021, driven by concerns over weak global demand and oversupply. Major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron saw their stock prices drop by approximately 2% [4]. Technology Sector - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and Broadcom, experienced profit-taking, continuing a trend of weakness. Analysts noted that this pullback is a normal market adjustment, with funds shifting from hot sectors to defensive areas like healthcare and utilities, indicating a broadening market rather than a collapse [5]. Circle and Visa Partnership - Circle's stock surged by 8% following Visa's announcement to support USDC settlements using its Arc blockchain, marking a significant step for traditional finance in embracing digital assets [5]. Southwest Airlines - Southwest Airlines achieved a historic milestone with its stock rising over 1%, marking the 11th consecutive day of gains, the longest streak recorded since 1972. Barclays upgraded its rating to "overweight," citing a new pricing strategy expected to significantly boost revenue [5]. AT&T Recommendation - JPMorgan has named AT&T as a top stock pick for 2026, setting a target price of $33, which implies a potential upside of 36%. The recommendation is based on AT&T's solid wireless market share, the upcoming completion of the Lumen acquisition, and a planned $20 billion stock buyback over the next three years [6]. Investor Sentiment - Despite increased short-term volatility, analysts believe the current market pullback is a healthy adjustment. As the year-end approaches, there is a notable shift of funds into high-dividend, low-valuation sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and healthcare, attracting risk-averse capital [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress made in poverty alleviation and industrial development in underdeveloped counties in Sichuan, driven by state-owned enterprises and targeted support initiatives [1][5]. Group 1: Industrial Development - Sichuan Energy Development Group has expanded the production of mugwort products, achieving a planting area of over 50,000 acres and involving more than 4,000 households, with each household earning an average annual income of 3,000 to 3,500 yuan per acre [2][3]. - The establishment of a smart goose farming facility in Hongjun Tree Village has led to an average income of approximately 150,000 yuan per batch, with plans to develop a full supply chain for goose processing [3]. - The Sichuan Port Investment Group has invested 6 million yuan to build a mushroom cultivation facility, demonstrating a successful transition from pilot to widespread cultivation, with an average annual income increase of 20,000 yuan for participating farmers [4]. Group 2: Educational Support - The article emphasizes the importance of combining educational empowerment with industrial support, as seen in the initiatives by Sichuan Road and Bridge Group, which organized cultural and educational activities for local children [6][7]. - Sichuan Development (Holding) Company has invested 19 million yuan in building a new secondary school, adding 1,650 new student places to address educational shortages in the region [7]. Group 3: Employment and Skills Training - Sichuan Airlines Group has provided training for over 600 local artisans in traditional embroidery, facilitating their transition into modern creative product development [8][9]. - The establishment of a vocational training school by State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company aims to train 2,000 individuals annually, with the first cohort achieving an average monthly income of over 5,000 yuan [9][10]. - The article notes the integration of agricultural training programs, such as the cultivation of strawberries, to enhance local employment opportunities and agricultural skills [10].

今年以来，港股在全球主要股市中表现突出，恒生指数等年内涨幅超过20%。不过，自10月中旬以来， 港股市场进入调整阶段，波动有所加大，11月整体呈现震荡走势，12月以来的调整幅度有所加大。 港股作为典型的离岸市场，其流动性受海外环境影响显著，而基本面则与内地经济紧密相连。相比基本 面，流动性对港股行情的影响更为直接和迅速，其中科技类资产对利率变化更为敏感。 除了流动性，估值优势、资产质量提升与市场生态重塑多重因素，也将促使港股估值修复。多家券商机 构展望2026年港股行情时指出，随着港股基本面触底反弹，叠加其依旧显著的估值折价，港股市场在 2026年将迎来第二轮估值修复以及业绩进一步复苏的行情。 南向资金创纪录流入 中信证券也表示，考虑到理财和货基等产品收益率持续下滑，而今年以来中国资产的"赚钱效应"愈发显 著，居民"存款搬家"现象或将持续。特别考虑到港股的低配情况，预计南向资金将持续增配港股，尤其 散户资金有较大的增配空间。 回购热情升温 与南向资金涌入相呼应的是，港股市场回购热情出现升温。 数据显示，截至2025年12月15日，港股上市公司今年以来的回购金额为1693.45亿港元，相比2024年 2655. ...

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a downward trend in December [1] - The market's liquidity is significantly influenced by the overseas environment, while its fundamentals are closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages and improved asset quality, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market, with projections indicating a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026 [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - A notable feature of the Hong Kong market in 2025 is the record inflow of southbound capital, with a net buying amount reaching 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - Southbound capital has provided substantial liquidity to the Hong Kong market, enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors, with the total market value of southbound holdings exceeding 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for 12.7% of the total market capitalization [2] - The inflow of southbound capital is linked to a loose monetary policy environment, with a significant increase in trading volume, which reached a historical high of 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, a 94.5% increase year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future projections for southbound capital inflows suggest an increase of 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital, with potential inflows from individual investors estimated between 2.5 billion HKD to 5 billion HKD over the next year [3] - The ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, driven by declining yields on financial products, is expected to continue, with significant room for retail investors to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, although this is lower than the 265.51 billion HKD recorded in 2024 [4] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December, indicating a strong upward trend [4][5] Group 5: External Capital Flows - In 2025, external capital flows into the Hong Kong market have turned positive, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported, and foreign cornerstone investors actively participating in IPOs [6] - The potential for further foreign capital inflows is contingent on domestic fundamentals and the RMB exchange rate, with expectations for a slight decrease in inflow scale compared to 2025 but still strong relative to southbound capital [6] Group 6: Market Recovery Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from a series of reforms and external economic policies, with projections for a rebound in 2026 driven by improved corporate earnings and continued inflows of southbound and foreign capital [7][8] - Key investment directions include technology sectors, healthcare, resource commodities, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [7]