1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract dropped significantly. The 09 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a reduction of 33,554 positions. The decline might be due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. Speculative long - positions in the near - month 09 contract exited in large numbers, while industrial hedging long - positions showed signs of entering. Speculative funds on the far - month 01 contract had an obvious intention to go long, and the 9 - 1 spread might further shrink [7][8]. - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main October contract rising 0.79% to 16.56 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main October contract fell 0.02% to $475.30 per ton. The overnight rise in crude oil prices provided some support to sugar prices. The market is expecting a significant increase in the production data of central - southern Brazil in the first half of July [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a position of 277,031 contracts and a reduction of 33,554 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,666 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.91%, with a position of 200,143 contracts and an increase of 18,274 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 16.56 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents or 0.79%, with a position of 395,463 contracts and a reduction of 2,396 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 17.16 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents or 0.65%, with a position of 223,411 contracts and an increase of 160 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Sugar Market**: The decline of Zhengzhou sugar was possibly due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. The exit of speculative long - positions in the 09 contract and the entry intention of industrial hedging long - positions, along with the long - entry intention of speculative funds in the 01 contract, may lead to a further shrinkage of the 9 - 1 spread [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **Farmland Moisture in Guangxi**: According to a report released by the Guangxi Soil and Fertilizer Station in mid - July, among 42 monitoring points of 14 farmland moisture monitoring stations in the region, 16 points had excessive moisture, 22 points had suitable moisture, and 4 points had insufficient moisture. Over 90% of the farmland moisture was suitable to excessive during the monitoring period [9]. - **Sugar Production Forecast in Central - Southern Brazil**: A survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of July is expected to increase by 12.5% to 3.329 million tons. The cane crushing volume is expected to increase by 11.3% year - on - year to 48.31 million tons. The sugar yield per ton of cane (ATR) is expected to decrease by 4.1% year - on - year to 136.18 kilograms per ton. The sugar - making ratio of cane is expected to be 53.11% [9]. - **Sugar Mill Clearance in Guangxi**: Tiandong Ertang Sugar Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory on July 25, becoming the 7th sugar factory of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 crushing season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still quoting [9]. - **Customs Mutual Recognition Arrangement**: The "Arrangement on Mutual Recognition of the Chinese Customs Enterprise Credit Management System and the Thai Customs 'Authorized Economic Operator' System" will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - **Coca - Cola's New Product**: Coca - Cola Company announced on Tuesday that it will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [9]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][20]. - The total long - position of the top 20 seats was 325,093 contracts, an increase of 105,773 contracts; the total short - position was 212,307 contracts, a decrease of 17,666 contracts; the total delivery - related position was 192,544 contracts, a decrease of 26,731 contracts [23].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently involved in a legal dispute regarding a land lease contract, with a total claim amounting to 17.5989 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Background - The company filed a civil lawsuit against Nanning Zhengyang Agricultural Machinery Cooperative and others on October 28, 2022, which was accepted by the court in December 2022 [2]. - The company appealed the first-instance judgment to the Nanning Intermediate People's Court, which was accepted in September 2024 [3]. Group 2: Current Legal Status - The company has submitted a compulsory execution application to the court following the judgment, and the execution case has been accepted with specific case numbers [4]. - The total amount involved in the ongoing legal matters is 17.5989 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Financial Impact - The company has indicated that the uncertainty surrounding the lawsuit's progress and execution makes it difficult to assess the impact on current or future profits [1][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase, and the short - term tightness in the trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - Domestically, the sales and production speed is fast, and inventory reduction is ahead of schedule. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap has become the focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it is expected to support sugar prices. However, due to the weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. - The decline in Brazil's sugar production year - on - year has raised market concerns, but it has already been priced in the market. Considering the expected loose global sugar supply - demand situation, raw sugar is expected to trade in a range in the short term. In the domestic market, the inventory reduction of domestic sugar is progressing well, and inventory pressure is limited. Affected by the international market, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,804, down 63 or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 234,894 (an increase of 74,893) and an open interest of 310,585 (a decrease of 33,554); SR01 closed at 5,701, down 74 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 21,005 (an increase of 3,812) and an open interest of 45,235 (an increase of 693); SR05 closed at 5,615, down 47 or 0.83%, with a trading volume of 196 (an increase of 49) and an open interest of 458 (an increase of 78) [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 6,120, 5,905, 6,320, 6,050, 6,175, 6,135, and 6,420 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 316, 101, 516, 246, 371, 331, and 616 [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 86 (up 27), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 189 (down 16), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 103 (up 11) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of - 0.2, and a freight of 38, the in - quota price was 4,474, the out - of - quota price was 5,699, the spread with Liuzhou was 421, the spread with Rizhao was 436, and the spread with the futures market was 105; for Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of 0.9, and a freight of 18, the in - quota price was 4,525, the out - of - quota price was 5,766, the spread with Liuzhou was 354, the spread with Rizhao was 369, and the spread with the futures market was 38 [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International Market**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate, and the short - term tight trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The fast sales and production speed and pre - emptive inventory reduction, along with the tightening of syrup import policies, make the filling of the production - demand gap a focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it will support sugar prices. However, due to weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade slightly stronger in a range, but the upside potential is limited. Long positions are recommended to gradually take profits and exit [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12]. - **Options**: Sell put options [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices, spot price spreads, basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][23][27][29][32]

报告标题 - Sugar Monthly Report, July 30, 2025 [12][18][23] 报告内容目录 第一部分：前言概要 - 巴西制糖比维持高位，需关注实际糖产情况 [5] 第二部分：基本面情况 - 包含WTI原油与ICE11号糖价格走势、ICE11号糖与CZCE郑糖价格走势等多组数据图表，涉及全球、巴西、印度、泰国、中国等地区食糖供需格局、产量、库存、出口、价格等方面内容 [15][19][24] 第三部分：后市展望及策略推荐 - 文档未阐述具体内容 [82]

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: July 30, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main October contract rising 0.86% to 16.43 cents per pound. The rise in overnight crude oil prices boosted sugar prices. The market expects a significant increase in the production data of central - southern Brazil in the first half of July [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar strengthened. The 09 contract closed at 5,867 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan or 0.17%, with a reduction of 14,181 positions. Today, Zhengzhou sugar weakened following the foreign market. The far - month 01 contract was significantly stronger, and speculative funds showed a clear intention to go long. The 9 - 1 spread may further shrink [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR509 closed at 5,867 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, with a position reduction of 14,181 lots; SR601 closed at 5,731 yuan per ton, up 0.67%, with an increase of 24,979 lots; US sugar 10 closed at 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.86%, with a position reduction of 720 lots; US sugar 03 closed at 17.05 cents per pound, up 0.71%, with an increase of 168 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic spot prices in production areas remained stable, with Nanning sugar quoted at 6,060 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5,850 yuan [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Farmland Moisture in Guangxi**: In mid - July, the farmland moisture in Guangxi was over 90% suitable to excessive, with 16 points having excessive moisture, 22 points having suitable moisture, and 4 points having insufficient moisture [9]. - **Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: A survey of 23 analysts showed that sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of July is expected to increase by 12.5% to 3.329 million tons, cane crushing volume is expected to increase by 11.3% to 48.31 million tons, and the sugar - cane ratio is expected to be 53.11%. Drought in July accelerated the harvest and increased the sugar - cane ratio, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the month [9]. - **Sugar Mill Clearance in Guangxi**: Tiandong Ertang Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory, becoming the 7th sugar mill of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 crushing season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still being quoted [9]. - **Customs Mutual Recognition Arrangement**: The "Mutual Recognition Arrangement" between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the Customs Department of the Kingdom of Thailand will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - **Coca - Cola's New Product**: Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [15][18][21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market Conditions - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Friday. The main October contract closed down 1.75% at 16.28 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main October contract closed down 1.9% at $471.00 per ton. The market predicts that Brazil's latest sugar production will increase due to dry weather, but overall, there is a high possibility of a production cut in Brazil [6][7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract was weak yesterday. The 09 contract closed at 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan or 0.53%, with a position reduction of 18,873 lots. The spot price in domestic producing areas declined slightly. Nanning sugar was quoted at 6,060 yuan, and Kunming sugar was quoted at 5,850 yuan. Today, Zhengzhou sugar's trend was influenced by the external market and weakened. The far - month 01 contract was significantly stronger, and speculative funds showed a clear intention to go long. The 9 - 1 spread may further shrink [7][8]. Contract Details | Contract | Closing Price (Yuan/Ton or Cents/Pound) | Change | Change Rate | Position (Lots) | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR509 | 5845 | -31 | -0.53% | 324831 | -18873 | | SR601 | 5702 | | | | | | 10 | 16.28 | | | | | 398579 | -2410 | | US Sugar | 16.90 | | | | | 223083 | 2296 | [7] Group 3: Industry News - As of July 25, Tiandong Ertang Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory, becoming the 7th sugar factory of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still quoting [9]. - The "Mutual Recognition Arrangement between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the Customs Department of the Kingdom of Thailand on the Mutual Recognition of China's Customs Enterprise Credit Management System and Thailand's Customs 'Authorized Economic Operator' System" will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [9]. - The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered its forecast for the average sugar beet yield in the EU in 2025 to 74.8 tons per hectare, down from 76.3 tons per hectare last month, but still 2% higher than the average of the past five years [9]. - In June 2025, China imported 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (including tax codes 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 45.91 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, China imported 109.83 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons [9]. - In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [9][10]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents data on spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][13][15] - The trading volume of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract was 298,040 lots, an increase of 53,256 lots. The long - position volume was 242,931 lots, a decrease of 10,763 lots. The short - position volume was 231,782 lots, a decrease of 10,343 lots [21]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that the equity structure of the controlling shareholder, Guangxi Rural Investment Group Co., Ltd. (农投集团), will undergo a change, but the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company will remain the same [1] - The equity transfer involves a 33% stake in the controlling shareholder being transferred to Guangxi State Capital Operation Group Co., Ltd. without compensation, effective as of December 31, 2024 [1] - The change in the equity structure of the controlling shareholder is not expected to have a substantial impact on the company's governance structure or operational activities [1] Group 2 - The announcement emphasizes that the actual controller, Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (广西国资委), will not change, ensuring stability in the company's control [1] - The company will continue to monitor the progress of the equity structure change and will comply with legal disclosure requirements [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the external sugar market has slowed down, lingering at a low level, weakening the downward pressure on domestic prices. The domestic demand is in the peak season, boosting the center of the white sugar futures price to rise slightly during stable operation. However, the increase in imports and the expectation of loose global supply will limit the upside potential of prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main white sugar futures contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan; the position of the main contract was 324,831 lots, a decrease of 18,873 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,150, a decrease of 492; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was 800 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,920 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,502 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,451 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 298 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 231 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for white sugar was 10.22%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 10.23%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the 20-day historical volatility was 4.6%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility was 6.95%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to the report of the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central-southern region declined in June. As of June in the 2025/26 crushing season, the sugar content index (ATR) of sugarcane decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, from 125.2 kg/ton to 121.4 kg/ton [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangnong Sugar Industry is moving forward with its fundraising plan of up to 260 million yuan for logistics and working capital, despite doubts about the necessity of expansion given its low warehouse capacity utilization [1][2]. Fundraising and Utilization - The company plans to raise a maximum of 260 million yuan, with 194 million yuan allocated for the "Yunou Logistics Sugar Storage Intelligent Distribution Center Phase II Expansion Project" and 66 million yuan for working capital and bank loan repayment [2]. - Guangnong Sugar's self-owned warehouse capacity utilization is currently at 21.66%, down from 61.19%, indicating underutilization and raising questions about the need for further expansion [2][3]. Financial Health and Debt Levels - The company has a high debt ratio, consistently above 90%, projected to be 94.5% by 2024, with the fundraising expected to reduce it to 88.41%, which remains high [3][4]. - As of 2024, Guangnong Sugar has cash and cash equivalents of 761 million yuan against short-term interest-bearing liabilities of 2.56 billion yuan, resulting in a low cash-to-debt ratio of 0.3 [3][6]. Profitability and Performance Fluctuations - The company has experienced significant profit volatility, with two years of losses and three years of profits since 2020, largely due to the cyclical nature of sugar prices [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for self-produced sugar dropped to 9.67% in 2022 but rebounded to over 13% in 2023, although the overall profitability remains weak with net profit margins of 0.48% and 0.62% in the last two years [6][7]. Risks and Future Outlook - The logistics and warehousing business is highly sensitive to sugar price cycles, and any fluctuations could lead to renewed losses for Guangnong Sugar [7]. - The company has accumulated unremedied losses of 2.38 billion yuan, and if significant losses occur in the future, it may face the risk of negative net assets and potential delisting [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's total sugar production may be adjusted downward due to lower yields and a historically high sugar - to - cane ratio. Asian producers, especially India, have optimistic production estimates. With potential increased sucrose use by Coca - Cola and PepsiCo and procurement demand from countries like Pakistan, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely between 16 - 18 cents per pound [2][20]. - Domestic sugar market: The sales of domestic sugar are progressing ahead of schedule, imports have increased significantly, and processed sugar has been put on the market in large quantities with stable prices. The cost of some previously priced raw sugar is similar to that of domestic sugar, so the market pressure is limited. The domestic market has achieved a relay supply pattern between domestic and processed sugar. The upside of sugar prices later depends on consumption, with an expected operating range of 5700 - 6000 yuan per ton [2][20][22]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou sugar futures trended higher with high basis and a shift from net short to net long positions in the main contracts, supported by fast sales and capital inflows. International sugar prices oscillated at low levels, rebounding after falling below 16 cents per pound but then being pressured by India's abundant supply expectations and dropping again [4]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: In the second half of June, the sugar - to - cane ratio in South Brazil reached a record high of 53.15%, with a cumulative ratio of 51.02%, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year. However, due to weather, the cane crushing volume was low. Considering the relatively low cane yield and sugar content and limited room for further increase in the sugar - to - cane ratio, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production may be reduced [6]. - **India**: Ample rainfall has led to high expectations for a large sugar harvest in the 2025/26 season. The USDA predicts India's sugar production will reach 35 million tons. As of mid - July 2025, India's sugar exports were 65 - 70 million tons, and the ISMA expects 80 million tons by the end of August, with 20 million tons of the quota unexported. The sugar industry requests an extension of the export license to December 31. If the harvest is good, India could export 100 - 150 million tons in the new year [9]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sales progress**: In June, Guangxi sold 495.3 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 77.3 thousand tons year - on - year, with an industrial inventory of 1.3244 million tons, a decrease of 330.8 thousand tons. Yunnan sold 195.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 66 thousand tons, with an industrial inventory of 667.6 thousand tons, an increase of 68.5 thousand tons. Some sugar mills in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the overall sales are ahead. Yunnan's inventory reduction is slower but is expected to improve in July [11][12]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 420 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 390 thousand tons year - on - year, the highest in the past decade. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons year - on - year. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative import was 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 600 thousand tons. Brazil accounted for 76% of raw sugar imports in the first half of 2025, and about one million tons of imported sugar are expected later. In June, the total import of syrups and sugar - containing premixes under certain tax codes was 115.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 103.2 thousand tons year - on - year. The import of 1702 - item syrups is shrinking, but Thai - flavored syrups and premixes show signs of growth [15][18].