Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5299 元/吨，日涨幅 0.88%，夜盘收 5280 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5304 元/吨，日涨幅 0.72%，夜盘收 5291 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1 广西白糖现货成交价为 5320 元/吨，上涨 16 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | | | | | 5320~5380 元/吨，部分上调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5190~5240 元/吨，上 | | | | | 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，2025/26榨季截至1月12日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为2309.55万吨，较去年同期的2884.91万吨 减少575.36万吨，降幅19.94%；甘蔗含糖分11.77%，较去年同期的11.75%增加0.02%；产糖率为 9.403%，较去年同期的9.551%减少0.148%；产糖量为217.17万吨，较去年同期的275.53万吨减少58.36万 吨，降幅21.18%。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间5310~5380元/吨，个别下调10元/吨；云南制 糖集团报价5140~5230元/吨，部分下调10元/吨。原糖方面，泰国压榨进度同比仍偏低，但相比于此前 同比偏低的幅度在修复，未来随着生产进入中程，仍有望进一步恢复。国内方面，增产压力与节前补库 采购之间暂时取得平衡。未来下有成本支撑，上有保值压力，预计在补库结束前，期价延续震荡。 棉花： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉上涨0.03%，报收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a slight increase in raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) due to a decline in sugar production in Brazil's central-south region in early December [1] - ICE March raw sugar futures rose by 0.05 cents, or 0.3%, settling at 14.89 cents per pound [1] - London March white sugar futures increased by $3.9, or 0.9%, settling at $427.30 per ton [1] Group 2 - Industry organization Unica reported that sugar production in Brazil's central-south region decreased by 28.8% year-on-year in early December, totaling 254,240 tons [1] - Unica also noted that the cane crushing volume for early December was 5.92 million tons, down 32.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative crushing volume of 598.19 million tons since the start of the crushing season, a decrease of 2.36% [1] - Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar producer, reduced its third-quarter sugar business loss from €95 million last year to €47 million, but warned of a potentially sluggish EU sugar market [1] - A spokesperson from Suedzucker indicated that the challenges faced include higher sugar production than consumption in the EU and globally, with no significant recovery in profitability expected for the sugar market [1] - Consulting firm CovrigAnalytics projected a global sugar surplus of 4.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season (October to September), an increase of 600,000 tons from previous forecasts, driven by strong production growth and weak demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range. One can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,266, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 20,168 (up 4309) and an open interest of 80,971 (up 2819); SR01 closed at 5,288, down 28 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 170 (down 486) and an open interest of 7,951 (down 137); SR05 closed at 5,253, down 32 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 221,246 (up 30716) and an open interest of 429,949 (down 1446) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5390, 5230, 5660, 5360, 5530, 5545, and 5810 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 137, - 23, 407, 107, 277, 292, and 557 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 35 (down 4), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 7), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 22 (up 3) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 31.75, the in - quota price was 3988, the out - of - quota price was 5065, the spread with Liuzhou was 325, the spread with Rizhao was 480, and the spread with the futures market was 223. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4038, the out - of - quota price was 5130, the spread with Liuzhou was 260, the spread with Rizhao was 415, and the spread with the futures market was 158 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil exported 740,467.97 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export of 123,411.33 tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export in January of the previous year. The total export in January of the previous year was 2,062,261.69 tons. The USDA estimated that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 9.381 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.279 million short tons of cane sugar, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio was estimated to be 15.8%. In Xinjiang, compared with 2024, the 2025 beet showed characteristics of a slight increase in yield per mu (0.23%), an increase in cost (2.77%), a decrease in selling price (-10.57%), and a decrease in income. The net profit per mu decreased by 43.70%, and the cash income per mu decreased by 30.76% [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest season, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the increase may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, as sugar prices have fallen to a low level and commodities are generally strong, US sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton. Recently, the US sugar on the external market shows signs of bottom - building, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which provides some support to the white sugar price. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - pressing season and there is still some sales pressure, and there is an expected increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season, white sugar is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic white sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, so one can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [8][9]. 3.3 Related Drawings The report includes multiple charts such as monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, white sugar basis, and futures spreads, which visually present the changes in sugar - related data over time [10][11][15] etc.

Core Viewpoint - Südzucker reported a challenging first nine months of fiscal 2025-26, with significant improvement in the third quarter, while reiterating its full-year guidance despite ongoing pressure in the sugar business and stabilization in non-sugar segments [1] Financial Performance - The nine-month performance was described as a "mixed picture," with third-quarter earnings improving compared to both the prior-year quarter and the first half of the year, but nine-month totals were still below the previous year due to a sharp decline in the sugar segment [2] - For the first nine months, Südzucker's revenue was EUR 6.4 billion, EBITDA was EUR 367 million (down from EUR 502 million a year earlier), operating result was EUR 95 million (down from EUR 236 million), and cash flow was EUR 179 million (down from EUR 368 million) [4] Guidance and Outlook - Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2025-26 guidance, expecting group revenue between EUR 8.3 billion and EUR 8.7 billion, and an operating result between EUR 100 million and EUR 200 million [5] - Initial expectations for fiscal 2026-27 include slightly lower group revenue year over year, with EBITDA expected to increase moderately to a range of EUR 480 million to EUR 680 million [3] Sugar Segment Performance - The sugar segment was the primary contributor to the year-on-year decline, reporting an operating loss of EUR 136 million compared to a loss of EUR 23 million in the prior-year period, attributed to sharply lower sugar prices and reduced volumes [6] - Global sugar consumption continues to rise by about 1 million tons per year, but production remains cyclical, with a projected global deficit of 1.5 million tons for 2024-25, followed by a surplus of 3.3 million tons for 2025-26 [7]

蔗渣发电处、废水处理池的参观，让师生们深入了解"三废"处理工艺与废渣循环利用模式。生物、地理组老师分别从资源利用与可持续发展角度，解读循环 经济的意义，帮助学生们提高环保意识与社会责任。 当天上午，师生们抵达企业后首站进入安全培训室。该公司副总经理李艺江向师生们介绍了企业规模，详解亚硫酸法制糖工艺原理与生产流程；该公司安全 技术部何部长作安全培训。 随后，在公司党委书记、总经理滕新源与副总经理李艺江的带领下，师生们走进压榨车间，观察甘蔗输送、清洗、压榨的自动化流程，围绕蔗汁除杂等问题 展开思考。在制炼车间，师生们观摩蔗汁预灰、硫熏中和到结晶分蜜的完整流程。化学老师引导学生分析除杂机理与结晶条件，对比工业生产与实验室操作 的异同。 活动尾声，师生与技术专家座谈。李艺江耐心解答学生关于副产品创新利用等问题，鼓励大家以知识助力传统工业升级。学校教务处主任江洁丽作总结发 言，感谢企业支持，勉励师生勤思善悟、学以致用。 本报讯（记者周志英 通讯员李金原 杨喜净）近日，南宁市邕宁高级中学化学、地理、生物、计心组等学科教师，带领部分学生走进南宁市明阳制糖公司， 开展跨学科实践活动，让学生沉浸式感受制糖工业的匠心魅力与绿色发 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911) reported a total of 32,500 shareholders as of January 9, 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The legal dispute between Nanjing Ganji Garden Co., Ltd. and Nanjing Gantian Garden Trading Co., Ltd. highlights issues of trademark infringement and unfair competition in the sugar industry, resulting in a court ruling that requires Gantian Garden to pay 5 million yuan in damages to Ganji Garden [1][4]. Group 1: Company Background - Ganji Garden is a well-known sugar production and sales enterprise in Nanjing, recognized for its white and brown sugar products [1]. - The company was founded 29 years ago, with its trademark "Ganji Garden" registered in 2002, and has since become a nationally recognized brand [3]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The court ruled that Gantian Garden's use of a similar trademark constituted trademark infringement, as it could confuse consumers due to the close resemblance to Ganji Garden's trademark [4]. - The court ordered Gantian Garden to cease its infringing activities and upheld Ganji Garden's claim for 5 million yuan in damages [4]. Group 3: Market Impact - The case reflects broader issues in the sugar industry regarding brand identity and consumer confusion, as Gantian Garden's products were marketed under a name that closely resembled Ganji Garden's [3][5]. - The ruling is seen as a measure to promote fair competition and protect the reputation of established brands in the market [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,291, down 8 (-0.15%); SR01 closed at 5,316, up 6 (0.11%); SR05 closed at 5,285, down 3 (-0.06%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions varied, with prices in places like Liuzhou at 5390 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5230 yuan/ton, etc. The price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions also showed differences, such as 105 in Liuzhou, - 55 in Kunming, etc [3] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 31, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 6, down 5; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 25, down 14 [3] - **Import Profits**: The quota - within and quota - outside prices, as well as the spreads with domestic prices and futures prices, were provided for Brazilian and Thai imports [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In December, the forecasted arrival of tariff - quota - outside raw sugar was 268,600 tons. From the 25/26 sugar - making season to the end of December, Brazil had cumulatively exported 1,447,100 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 878,000 tons. The estimated import volume of sugar in December was between 400,000 - 500,000 tons, higher than last year's 390,000 tons. The total sugar import volume in 2025 was expected to be around 4.8 million tons, higher than 4.35 million tons in 2024 [5] - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills had started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed sugarcane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89% [5] - In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 331,000 tons. In 2025, Brazil cumulatively exported 4,767,500 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 1,747,200 tons [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as the sugarcane harvest nears completion. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an over - expected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and the strong performance of bulk commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton) and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price on the external market (the quota - outside cost of imported Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton) support the white sugar price. But considering the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar increase in the 25/26 season, there is significant pressure on the upper oscillation platform of white sugar prices. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in different regions and time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][14][15]

Group 1 - Thailand's sugar production is projected to reach 10.3 million tons in 2025/26, followed by a decrease to 10 million tons in 2026/27 according to the Thai Sugar Industry Committee [1] - Indian sugar mills have signed export contracts for approximately 180,000 tons of sugar this year, driven by domestic price adjustments and a weak rupee [1] - The FAO sugar price index averaged 90.7 points in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.1 points (2.4%), but a year-on-year decline of 28.6 points (24.0%) [1] Group 2 - The focus in the market has shifted to the production situation in the Northern Hemisphere, with strong expectations for increased production in India [2] - Domestic sugar supply pressure is expected to increase as new sugar production begins, with high import volumes anticipated in January [2] - The current sugar market may face limited upward potential due to significant supply pressures from both domestic and imported sugar [2] Group 3 - Brazilian sugar production is nearing its end, alleviating seasonal supply pressures, while raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Southern sugar mills in China are starting to process, leading to a seasonal increase in sugar supply, which will gradually reveal supply pressures [3] - Domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, providing support for the market, despite the anticipated seasonal supply pressures and increased production [3]