2026 年 1 月 18 日 总量研究 市场或转为震荡上行 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20260118 要点 本周市场核心观点： 本周（2026.01.12-2026.01.16，下同）市场涨跌分化，成长风格指数震荡收涨， 红利风格指数表现垫后。1 月 14 日中午，经证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通 知调整融资保证金比例，当日下午市场表现急转直下，指数出现回调。 市场情绪方面，当前主要宽基指数量能仍处高景气区间，量能观点仍积极；主要 宽基指数及宽基指数 ETF 成交量 PCR 震荡回升，衍生品投资者交易情绪小幅降 温。后市或从趋势性上行转向震荡上行，中长线持续看好"红利+科技"配置主 线，短线科技或仍占优。 本周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指下跌 0.45%，上证 50 下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 下跌 0.57%，中证 500 上涨 2.18%，中证 1000 上涨 1.27%，创业板指上 涨 1.00%，北证 50 指数上涨 1.58%。 截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，宽基指数来看，中证 500、中证 1000、创业板指处于 估值分位数"适中"等级，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300 处于估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up 1.14% and 1% respectively, indicating a divergence in market trends as institutions provide insights on future movements [2] Group 1: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights that the adjustment of financing margins does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but impacts its structure, emphasizing the importance of performance indicators as the annual report preview period approaches [2] - Huaxi Securities maintains that the slow bull trend of A-shares remains intact, with a focus on sectors showing high growth or improving conditions as macro policies support economic recovery [3] - Galaxy Securities notes that investor sentiment is highly active, with a continuous increase in margin trading balances, indicating a stable long-term bullish foundation for the market despite short-term fluctuations [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified along two main lines: the acceleration of global changes favoring technology innovation and growth sectors, and the recovery of manufacturing and resource sectors due to improved supply-demand dynamics [5] - The first main line focuses on technology sectors such as AI and robotics, while the second emphasizes the recovery paths for industries like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals [5] - Auxiliary opportunities include the continuation of consumption policies aimed at boosting demand and the trend of companies expanding their profitability through international markets [5]

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[10][11] - The "Total Heat Indicator" is defined as the sum of the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of a stock, normalized by its market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][10] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "Others" group has the highest change rate[16][18] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 2.1% in 2026[19] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 10 and bottom 10 stocks by total heat within the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate each week, and holding them equally[35] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of low-heat stocks within high-heat concepts has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[37]

- The A-share prosperity index was 19.44 as of January 16, 2026, up 14.02 from the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle[2][30] - The A-share sentiment index shows multiple signals for both bottom and top warnings, with a comprehensive signal indicating a bullish outlook[2][37] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio underperformed the benchmark by 1.12% this week, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 1.01%[2][45][51] - The Beta factor is currently dominant, with high Beta stocks performing well, while leverage and profitability factors performed poorly[2][56] - The A-share sentiment index is constructed by dividing the market into four quadrants based on volatility and trading volume changes, with only the quadrant of rising volatility and falling trading volume showing significant negative returns[34][37] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio has achieved an excess return of 47.12% relative to the CSI 500 index since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -9.32%[45] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has achieved an excess return of 43.72% relative to the CSI 300 index since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[51] - The A-share sentiment index's bottom warning signal (price) and top warning signal (volume) both indicate a bullish outlook[37] - The Beta factor showed high excess returns, while residual volatility showed significant negative excess returns[56] - The A-share prosperity index is constructed using the YoY net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai Composite Index as the Nowcasting target[29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market may continue to strengthen after a volume increase in the spring market, influenced by policies, external events, liquidity, and sentiment [1][8] - Historical data shows that in the past 16 spring markets since 2010, there were 11 instances where the total A-share trading volume increased by over 100% from the low to the high, and in 9 of those instances, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise [1][8] - Key factors affecting whether A-shares can continue to rise after a volume increase include policies and external events, liquidity, and sentiment of leading sectors prior to the volume increase [1][8] Group 2 - Currently, the A-share market is expected to continue a strong but volatile trend, with the spring market not yet over [2][9] - Short-term policies remain positive, with a dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, and external risks are relatively limited, particularly in US-China relations and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks [2][9] - Short-term liquidity expectations are still loose, with the macro liquidity likely to remain accommodative, and the central bank has already implemented structural interest rate cuts [2][9] Group 3 - In the spring market, sectors that are likely to outperform include technology growth and certain cyclical industries, with historical trends indicating that sectors with low valuation sentiment may experience a rebound after a volume increase [3][10] - Current sectors expected to perform well include pharmaceuticals, machinery, and new energy, while media, military, and electronics may experience slight corrections before continuing to rise [3][10] - The ongoing trends in AI and commercial aerospace are expected to support the upward movement of related sectors such as TMT and military [3][10] Group 4 - Short-term recommendations suggest accumulating positions in technology growth and certain cyclical sectors that are currently undervalued [4][11] - Sectors such as machinery (robots), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs) are highlighted for their positive policy and industry trends [4][11] - Non-bank financials and consumer sectors (food, retail, and services) are also suggested for potential rebound and marginal improvement in fundamentals [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations during the week of January 12-16, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, but ultimately showed a trend of rising and then falling due to regulatory interventions [1][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown notable volatility, having crossed the 4000 and 4100 points at the beginning of the year [2]. - The overall average stock price in the A-share market increased by 2.46% over the week, marking six consecutive weeks of gains [9]. Regulatory Actions - Regulatory measures included raising the margin requirements for financing, which was a significant action taken during the week [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need for market stability and fair trading, with over 800 regulatory actions taken against abnormal trading and information disclosure issues [5][8]. Sector Trends - The commercial aerospace sector faced a continuous decline, with notable scrutiny on prominent investors like Chen Xiaoqun, indicating a targeted regulatory approach towards "pseudo-leaders" lacking fundamental support [5][8]. - Certain hot sectors, particularly in AI applications and commercial aerospace, saw significant declines, with indices related to these sectors dropping between 6.16% and 10.52% [12]. Investment Sentiment - Despite the regulatory "cooling" signals, the overall market response has been positive, with some investors interpreting the outflow of over 100 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs as a sign of "cooling" or "index suppression" [6][8]. - There is a shift in investment focus towards sectors that align better with regulatory expectations, indicating a potential reallocation of hot money [12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the commercial aerospace sector may continue to experience fluctuations similar to the new energy sector, driven by policy support and industry trends [14]. - The market is expected to remain resilient due to favorable liquidity conditions and ongoing positive policy stances, with potential for continued upward movement in the spring [15].

【环球网财经综合报道】A股上市公司掀起股东回馈热潮，呈现出"花式"实物回馈与制度化现金分红规 划双管齐下的新格局。近日，好想你发布公告，向符合条件的股东提供低于零售价5折的年货礼盒专属 购买权益，受此利好消息推动，公司自1月8日以来股价累计涨幅已超过20%。这一现象并非个例，据统 计数据，2025年披露股东回馈或赠送活动的上市公司数量达到40余家，创历史新高，显示出在当前市场 环境下，上市公司越来越重视通过多种方式与投资者分享发展成果，维护市场信心。 市场对这种"花式"送礼的行为反应积极。据统计，从公告当日及随后的T+3、T+5、T+10日来看，相关 公司的平均涨幅整体跑赢了沪深300指数。2025年，荣泰健康、峨眉山A、祥源文旅在公告后纷纷涨 停，峨眉山A和祥源文旅甚至在公告次日盘中一度涨停。华大基因在披露公告后10个交易日内累计涨幅 更是超过70%。不过，也有博纳影业、英诺特、海峡股份等公司在公告后股价出现下跌。业内人士表 示，股东回馈活动本身是上市公司品牌推广与客户关系维护的衍生，是投资者关系管理加营销的组合 拳，这类活动对股价的刺激多为短期情绪释放，长期仍回归基本面。但不可否认的是，这类活动能够显 著 ...

Group 1: Policy Changes and Industry Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, with battery product rebates gradually phasing out, aimed at curbing low-price competition in overseas markets [1][10] - The photovoltaic industry is currently not profitable, and this policy is expected to directly reduce company revenues, causing short-term pain [1][10] - Experts believe that while the policy may help rationalize overseas market prices, addressing the issue of "involution" requires technological breakthroughs and industry self-discipline [1][10] Group 2: Commodity Price Fluctuations - Recent significant increases in tomato prices across multiple regions in China have been observed, with retail prices ranging from 5 to 18 yuan per pound, and wholesale prices rising over 80% year-on-year [1][11] - The price surge is attributed to continuous rainfall during the summer and autumn seasons, leading to plant damage and reduced yields [1][11] - It is expected that prices will significantly decline by late January as new batches of tomatoes come to market [1][11] Group 3: Market Challenges and Company Responses - Shenzhen's Shui Bei and Cheng Xing Silver Tower have been accused of delivery delays, with some merchants claiming losses exceeding 300,000 yuan, and over 350 people in a rights protection group [1][12] - The past year saw a 214% increase in spot silver prices, leading many silver merchants to adopt a "payment before delivery" model, which has raised credit risks due to market volatility [1][12] - Legal experts advise investors to verify qualifications and clarify delivery and refund terms when signing contracts, emphasizing the importance of preserving evidence [1][12] Group 4: Resource Supply and Industry Development - The first shipment of 200,000 tons of iron ore from the world's largest iron ore project, Simandou, has arrived at Zhejiang Shengsi Port, marking the full integration of its supply chain [1][13] - The project, located in Guinea, has a massive reserve and is expected to supply 120 million tons annually once fully operational, significantly enhancing China's direct supply and security of iron ore resources for the steel industry [1][13] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Trends - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time in 2025, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 5% year-on-year increase, setting a new global record for a single country [1][14][15] - This milestone reflects the strong resilience and large scale of the Chinese economy, driven by stable macroeconomic conditions, increased electrification, and sustained high temperatures [1][14][15] - Notably, electricity consumption in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and the digital economy is growing rapidly, while high-energy-consuming industries are experiencing a slowdown, indicating a shift towards high-tech and high-value-added sectors [1][14][15] Group 6: Corporate Financial Health - Bosch, the world's largest automotive supplier, has warned that its operating profit margin will fall below 2% in 2025, significantly lower than its long-term target of 7% [1][4][15] - The company's revenue is approximately 91 billion euros, but actual revenue has declined when excluding acquisition impacts [1][4][15] - The profit reduction is primarily due to restructuring costs of 3.1 billion euros and market challenges, prompting Bosch to initiate layoffs to cope with the pressures of electrification, weak demand, and intense competition [1][4][15]

中国药品曾因缺乏权威认证的国际价格信息，导致海外市场难以找到可靠的定价依据。为此，国家医保 局发起建设中国药登系统，由北京药品登记信息服务有限公司作为运营主体，2025年12月2日上线运 行。其核心功能是为企业提供权威、规范、透明的市场价格登记查询服务。药品上市许可持有人可获取 登记价格多语种查询凭证，作为权威价格证明。 中国药登系统自上线以来，网站日活跃用户已超过万人次。截至目前，该系统申请注册药品企业达60 家，覆盖全国18个省份；登记22个药品，包括中成药、化药、生物制药等类型。北京药品价格登记信息 服务有限公司总经理李克斌说："系统将持续完善服务，计划推动与国际主流机构的互认合作，进一步 简化中国药械产品进入海外市场的流程，助力中国医药创新成果走向世界。" （来源：千龙网） 帮助我国药品企业"明码实价"走向国际市场的平台——中国药品价格登记系统，上线一个半月服务全国 18个省份的60家企业，登记22个药品。 ...

- The "Competitive Advantage Portfolio" utilizes a competitive barrier analysis framework to categorize industries into four types: "Barrier Shield," "Highly Competitive," "Steady Progress," and "Seeking Breakthrough." The strategy focuses on identifying "sole leading" companies in "Barrier Shield" industries and "cooperative win-win" companies in industries without clear leaders. For non-"Barrier Shield" industries, it targets "efficient operation" companies that perform well even in competitive environments[11][12] - The "Margin of Safety Portfolio" emphasizes the internal factors of a company, focusing on creating entry barriers to ensure unique market positions and sustainable profitability. It calculates the intrinsic value of a company based on its profitability, selecting the top 50 stocks with the highest margin of safety from a pool of stocks with comprehensive competitive advantages. The portfolio is adjusted on May 1, September 1, and November 1 each year[17][19] - The "Dividend Low Volatility Adjusted Portfolio" aims to avoid the "high dividend trap" by considering the sustainability of company earnings and long-term value. It uses dividend yield predictions and negative screening to exclude stocks with extreme price performance or abnormal debt ratios[23] - The "AEG Valuation Potential Portfolio" uses the AEG_EP factor to select the top 100 stocks, then narrows it down to the top 50 stocks with high dividend reinvestment ratios. This strategy invests in companies whose growth potential is not yet fully recognized by the market. The AEG model calculates abnormal earnings growth as follows: $$ \begin{array}{c} A E G=Y_{t}-N_{t}=(E_{t}+r*D P S_{t-1})-(1+r)*E_{t-1} \\ \frac{V_{0}}{E_{1}}=\frac{1}{r}+\frac{1}{r}*\frac{\left(\frac{A E G_{2}}{1+r}+\frac{A E G_{3}}{(1+r)^{2}}+\frac{A E G_{4}}{(1+r)^{3}}+\cdots\right)}{E_{1}} \end{array} $$ where \(E_1\) is the first period's earnings and \(V_0\) is the current market value[28][29][31] - The "Cash Cow Portfolio" uses the CFOR analysis system to evaluate a company's profitability and cash generation efficiency. It focuses on the stability of free cash profit ratio, operating asset return rate, net profit margin, and total asset turnover rate, selecting high-quality stocks from the CSI 800 index[34][35][36] - The "Distressed Reversal Portfolio" captures short-term valuation fluctuations by utilizing inventory cycles to depict company reversals, considering accelerated recovery and undervaluation. It constructs a top 50 portfolio based on valuation improvement[41][43] Model Backtest Results - Competitive Advantage Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 19.84%, Sharpe ratio 0.93, IR 0.09, maximum drawdown -19.32%, Calmar ratio 1.03[16] - Margin of Safety Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 23.16%, Sharpe ratio 1.15, IR 0.16, maximum drawdown -16.89%, Calmar ratio 1.37[21] - Dividend Low Volatility Adjusted Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 16.87%, Sharpe ratio 1.00, IR 0.17, maximum drawdown -21.61%, Calmar ratio 0.78[24] - AEG Valuation Potential Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 25.36%, Sharpe ratio 1.16, IR 0.15, maximum drawdown -24.02%, Calmar ratio 1.06[33] - CSI 800 Cash Cow Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 13.42%, Sharpe ratio 0.67, IR 0.09, maximum drawdown -19.80%, Calmar ratio 0.68[39] - Distressed Reversal Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 24.53%, Sharpe ratio 0.99, IR 0.15, maximum drawdown -33.73%, Calmar ratio 0.73[43]