Summary of Jinlong Automobile Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese bus industry is currently in an upward cycle, with 2024 sales projected at approximately 520,000 units, which is below the peak of 600,000 units in 2014-2015, indicating potential for growth [8][10] - The industry is expected to exceed previous peak levels due to significant export volumes and favorable policies such as vehicle trade-in programs [10] Company Performance - Jinlong Automobile sold 23,000 large and medium-sized buses in 2023, capturing a market share of 25%, ranking second in the industry [2][3] - The company aims for nearly 50,000 units in total sales for 2024, including both large and medium-sized buses and light buses [3] - Jinlong's overseas sales revenue surpassed domestic revenue for the first time in 2023, with overseas sales accounting for 45% of total sales volume and 52% of total revenue [11] Financial Metrics - Jinlong's gross margin reached 17%, significantly higher than the domestic market average by six to seven percentage points [5] - The net profit margin of Jinlong is currently below that of competitors Yutong (10%) and Zhongtong (4-5%), but there is substantial room for improvement through cost reduction and efficiency enhancements [6][12] - If raw material costs decrease by 5%, Jinlong's gross margin could potentially reach 15.5% [6] Strategic Developments - Jinlong completed the acquisition of 100% of Xiamen Jinlv, enhancing its control and operational efficiency [2][9] - The proportion of high-priced, high-margin products increased from 23% in 2021 to 36% in 2024 [11] Autonomous Driving Initiatives - Jinlong is one of the earliest companies to invest in autonomous driving buses, having launched the Apollo autonomous bus in collaboration with Baidu in 2018, now in its second generation [7][13] - The company has also designed an autonomous minibus for Hong Kong Airport, positioning itself to benefit from the rapid increase in high-level intelligent driving penetration [7] Competitive Landscape - Jinlong competes with major players like Yutong and Zhongtong, with Yutong's revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan and Jinlong's around 20 billion yuan [4][12] - The profitability of Jinlong is currently lower than its competitors, but ongoing integration and cost optimization efforts are expected to enhance its financial performance [12] Market Trends - The penetration rate of autonomous commercial vehicles is anticipated to rise sharply in the next 2-3 years, which could significantly boost the company's gross and net profit levels [14] - The overall market dynamics suggest that as the penetration rate increases from 10% to 30%, the company's performance and valuation are likely to experience strong expansion [14]

2 证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 2月第3周乘用车同比+42.3%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年3月4日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.2.24-2025.3.2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：二月第三周交强险36.8万辆（同/环比+42.3%/+9.6%）。本周SW汽 车指数-2.7%，细分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载客车(+3.7%) ＞ 重卡指数(-0.7%)> S W摩托车及其他(-1.0%)> SW汽车零部件(-2.2%)> SW汽车(-2.7%)> SＷ商用载货车(- 3.5%) > SW乘用车(-4.4%) 。本周已覆盖标的明阳科技、苏轴股份、小鹏汽车-W、威 迈斯和理想汽车-W涨幅较好。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发二月深圳NOA试驾报告、乘用车月报、重卡月报。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）特斯拉在中国正式推出FSD，国内智能化进程加速；2）小鹏 2月交付新车30453台，同比+570%；3）理想公布L改款规划，5月智驾焕新版Pro/ M ...