亿万富翁、对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼以激进投资策略而闻名，近期他也活跃于政治领域。 其个人生活同样充满戏剧性。2010年代中期，阿克曼在短短数年间经历了代价高昂的离婚、目睹旗下潘 兴广场资本管理公司（Pershing Square Capital Management）亏损数十亿美元，并险些失去公司控制 权。 阿克曼于上周四在纽约举办的《福布斯》颠覆者峰会（Forbes Iconoclast Summit）上讲述了这段经历。 他对《福布斯》总编辑史蒂夫·福布斯坦言："当时我正经历离婚，这给我带来了巨大的财务压力。我的 基金下跌了约30%。" 十年前，比尔·阿克曼曾深陷人生低谷。图片来源：Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images 尽管阿克曼的职业濒死体验尤为残酷，他坚信这套方法论适用于所有人。 他表示："不幸的是，所有人都会经历这样的时刻……可能是健康危机，或许是失业打击，或者创业失 败。若从高处跌落谷底，会承受更痛苦的煎熬。" 历经数年低谷，阿克曼如今已重回巅峰。潘兴广场最新估值使阿克曼去年净资产飙升至约80亿美元。虽 然据传他与首任妻子离婚付出了九位数的代 ...

多策略对冲基金Balyasny聘请前英国央行副行长布罗德本特。（彭博） ...

AQR曾在2018到2020年经历量化寒冬，多种核心因子表现不佳，导致资产规模从高峰期的2260亿美 元，一度缩水到2023年的980亿美元。不过，随着策略回暖，AQR的表现明显改善。 Asness开玩笑说："现在最激励我的是，要向那些质疑我们的人复仇。我要证明我们不仅是对的，而且 能做得更好。" 在全球量化基金越来越"信机器"的当下，曾多年以谨慎著称的AQR资本管理公司，如今也选择彻底转向 采用AI和机器学习技术来做交易决策。 6月4日，据媒体报道，这家总部位于美国康涅狄格州、管理资产规模达1360亿美元的对冲基金，已经更 彻底地把决策交给了机器。创始人Cliff Asness表示： "当你把决策权交给机器，其实就是让数据来做决定。" 从人主导到机器主导 长期以来，AQR一直坚持"人主导、规则驱动"的传统量化风格。他们依靠人类研究员设计规则模型，基 于可解释的市场逻辑进行资产配置，这与Two Sigma等"机器主导派"明显不同。 其实早在2018年，AQR就已尝试引入机器学习，但真正大规模应用是在最近。如今，它们不仅在股票 资产之外也使用这套系统，还进一步让机器学习算法动态调整因子权重，甚至直接根据数据发现 ...

Core Insights - Steve Diggle, a former hedge fund manager, warns of a brewing financial storm reminiscent of the pre-2007 crisis, citing complacency and mispricing of risks in the market [1] - The newly established Vulpes AI Long/Short Fund (VAILS) aims to replicate successful strategies from the 2008 crisis while incorporating AI technology to identify high-risk assets [2] Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - Diggle identifies five key signs of an impending crisis: 1. Central bank policy constraints due to a decade of quantitative easing and pandemic-related debt accumulation, leaving global central banks unable to implement further easing [1] 2. The return of inflation driven by the reversal of globalization and protectionism disrupting supply chains [1] 3. Geopolitical conflicts posing direct threats to asset safety [1] 4. U.S. stock market bubble, with valuations at historical highs, representing two-thirds of global market capitalization [1] 5. Risks associated with unpredictable leadership in the U.S., leading to significant market volatility [1] Group 2: Fund Strategy and Operations - VAILS will employ a strategy similar to that of Artradis during the 2008 crisis, focusing on long positions in volatility and short positions in credit risk through instruments like credit default swaps (CDS) [2] - The fund aims to address the current market's lack of hedging tools, with Diggle emphasizing that the fund is not permanently bearish but tactically positioned [2] - An AI engine will be integrated into the fund's operations to analyze vast amounts of corporate data, helping to identify overvalued, fraudulent, or high-risk assets [2] - The strategy focuses on surviving during bull markets to maintain investor patience until a market correction occurs [2]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the potential challenges the US faces in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, particularly in light of rising trade deficits and the proposed "Plaza Accord 2.0" to counteract dollar appreciation [1][2][3] - The "Plaza Accord 2.0" is a concept proposed by Stephen Miran, aiming for coordinated intervention among multiple countries to manage currency exchange rates and curb excessive dollar appreciation [2][3] - The US is experiencing a significant increase in its trade deficit, projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2024, compared to $120 billion in 1985, indicating a worsening economic situation [3] Group 2 - The relationship between the dollar's status as a reserve currency and national security is emphasized, suggesting that the US's economic stability is intertwined with its defense capabilities [4][5] - The US's reliance on the dollar as a global currency has led to a situation where its economic policies, such as tariffs, may inadvertently undermine the dollar's value and the country's credibility [5][6] - Recent discussions among financial institutions indicate a growing concern over the risks associated with dollar depreciation, with some investors seeking to adjust their asset holdings in response [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and implications of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency, particularly in the context of the proposed "Plaza Accord 2.0" aimed at curbing the dollar's excessive appreciation and its impact on U.S. trade deficits [1][2][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Status and Economic Implications - The U.S. dollar is widely used internationally, leading to increased demand and a higher exchange rate, which in turn reduces export competitiveness and often results in trade deficits [1][2]. - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is highlighted, indicating that the U.S. must supply dollars abroad to maintain its reserve currency status, which creates a paradox of needing to run trade deficits while also facing pressure from a strong dollar [2][3]. - The scale of the U.S. trade deficit has significantly increased, from $120 billion in 1985 to an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2024, while the fiscal deficit has grown from $210 billion to $1.8 trillion, indicating a worsening of the dual deficit situation [3]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions and Market Reactions - The "Plaza Accord 2.0" is proposed as a collaborative effort among multiple countries to manage currency values and prevent the dollar from over-appreciating, reflecting a shift from free trade to protectionism under the current U.S. administration [2][3]. - A secret meeting involving major financial institutions and the White House's economic advisor Stephen Miran suggests a growing concern over the volatility of the U.S. financial markets and the potential for significant economic instability [2][3]. - The article notes that the U.S. is increasingly relying on tariffs and protectionist measures, which may ultimately undermine the dollar's value and the U.S.'s credibility as a stable economic leader [4][5]. Group 3: National Security and Economic Stability - The article emphasizes the inseparable link between the dollar's status as a reserve currency and U.S. national security, suggesting that a strong dollar can weaken U.S. manufacturing and export competitiveness, thereby posing risks to national defense [4]. - The notion that the U.S. may no longer have the capacity to protect its allies and maintain the dollar's value is raised, indicating a shift in global economic dynamics and potential challenges to U.S. hegemony [4][5]. - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's reflects growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a loss of confidence in the dollar [4].

美国"2024年冠军对冲基金"、Discovery Capital Management创始人Robert Citrone日前接受高盛 《Great Investors》栏目专访，就今年经济走势、投资机会阐述了自己的看法。 作为全球最负盛名的"Tiger Cubs"（老虎幼崽）之一，Robert Citrone早年在朱里安·罗伯逊主导的Tiger Management任全球新兴市场主管，后又深度受教于传奇交易员乔治·索罗斯。 自1999年创立Discovery起，Citrone从最初500万美元的自有资本起步，带领团队管理逾22亿美元资 产，成功穿越多轮新兴市场危机、2008年金融海啸、COVID震荡及近期的通胀再定价周期。Discovery Capital Management2024年全年回报超50%，位居全美对冲基金榜首。 在Citrone看来，目前市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧有点"言过其实"。虽然GDP出现了两个季度的负增 长，但主要原因是大量进口激增。即便最终需求转负，也是非常轻微的，经济会在第三和第四季度回 升。 2025年最好的机会实际上在拉丁美洲以及其他美国以外的地区，没有哪个拉美国家被征收超过 ...

在Citrone看来，目前市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧有点"言过其实"。虽然GDP出现了两个季度的负增长，但主要原因是大量进口 激增。即便最终需求转负，也是非常轻微的，经济会在第三和第四季度回升。 2025年最好的机会实际上在拉丁美洲以及其他美国以外的地区，没有哪个拉美国家被征收超过10%的关税。墨西哥还有USMCA 协议，如果美国表现不佳，拉美可以在一定程度上提供保护。 在利率方面，Citrone认为利率还会上升，到今年年底，美国10年期国债收益率会突破 5%。这主要是因为经济正在重新加速，而 短期内通胀依然顽固，高企。 美国"2024年冠军对冲基金"、Discovery Capital Management创始人Robert Citrone日前接受高盛《Great Investors》栏目专访，就今 年经济走势、投资机会阐述了自己的看法。 以下是访谈核心要点： 作为全球最负盛名的"Tiger Cubs"（老虎幼崽）之一，Robert Citrone早年在朱里安·罗伯逊主导的Tiger Management任全球新兴市 场主管，后又深度受教于传奇交易员乔治·索罗斯。 实际上我们认为2026年将会是美国经济非常 ...

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the conflict between Trump and Harvard, which symbolizes a deeper struggle involving global financial capital and the survival of U.S. debt [1][5][10] - Harvard is described as a giant hedge fund, with its endowment functioning as a significant player in the global financial market, utilizing complex investment strategies to achieve excess returns [3][5] - Trump's criticism of Harvard is not merely about educational policies but reflects a broader challenge to the influence of financial capital on U.S. politics and economics [5][6][8] Group 2 - The discussion includes contrasting views on U.S. debt management, with one perspective advocating for extending debt duration while another suggests aggressive measures like currency devaluation and high inflation to alleviate debt pressure [5][6] - The concept of credit sovereignty is introduced, highlighting the struggle for control over the dollar's expansion and asset pricing, with Trump representing national interests against financial capital [6][8] - The current crisis in the U.S. is characterized by financial capital undermining the dollar's credit system, raising questions about the future stability of the U.S. financial framework [10]

"哈佛禁招令"风波持续发酵。 据最新消息，美国总统特朗普再度炮轰哈佛大学。当地时间5月23日，特朗普在接受采访时声称"很多哈佛学生 连二加二都不会做"。 与此同时，特朗普政府宣布的"哈佛禁招令"被紧急叫停。哈佛大学23日再次起诉特朗普政府，指其非法禁止该 校招收国际学生。美国马萨诸塞州联邦地区法院一名法官当天已对特朗普政府发出临时限制令，要求在举行听 证会之前"维持现状"。 值得一提的是，比利时未来女王也或将受到"哈佛禁招令"的影响。据美媒报道，比利时王位第一顺位继承人伊 丽莎白公主或因哈佛大学国际学生禁招令无法继续学业。对此，比利时王室通讯主管贝尔特回应称，目前王室 正对此进行研判。 特朗普最新发声 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时声称"很多哈佛学生连二加二都不会做"。 记者询问特朗普"为什么不想让全世界最优秀最聪明的人来哈佛"，特朗普回答道："我想，但他们很多人需要 补习数学。你知道吗？那些学生不会做二加二的算术题，但他们能进哈佛。" 美国国土安全部22日宣布取消哈佛大学获得的学生和交流学者项目资质，禁止该校招收国际学生，引发舆论争 议。 国土安全部部长克里斯蒂·诺姆指责哈佛 ...