1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, as it affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. The Fed will react when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it's advisable to manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1] - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active efforts in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event impacts. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to the development of geopolitical events and the verification of domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures Market**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 13.92%. All energy products fell, with crude oil down 10.76%. Most chemical products declined, with ethylene glycol down 5.26%. Most black - series products dropped, with coke down 4.49%. All non - metallic building materials decreased, with glass down 4.44%. All oilseeds and oils declined, with soybean oil down 3.14%. All agricultural and sideline products fell, with logs down 2.28%. Most new - energy materials declined, with industrial silicon down 1.88%. Precious metals led the gains, with Shanghai silver up 7.11%. Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin up 2.24% [1] - **Financial Market**: On March 10, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 300 futures up 1.35%, SSE 50 futures up 0.63%, CSI 500 futures up 1.46%, and CSI 1000 futures up 1.53%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with 2 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures unchanged, 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.01%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%. The US dollar index was down 0.24% [7] - **Industry Index**: On March 10, 2026, among the CITIC industry indices, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and electronics rose, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined [8][9] - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was down 6.4%, ICE Brent crude oil was down 3.13%, COMEX gold was down 0.19%, and COMEX silver was up 3.6% [10][11] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On March 10, 2026, shipping futures such as the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined significantly, precious metals such as gold and silver rose, and most energy - chemical products such as crude oil and methanol fell [12][13][14] 3.2 Asset Views by Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures and options are affected by risk factors and are in a state of shock. The market is waiting and observing. The focus is on incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks. Treasury bond futures are affected by how fiscal policy will be implemented this year and are in a state of shock. Gold and silver are affected by rising inflation expectations suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and are in a state of shock. The focus is on US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation [4] - **Shipping**: The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding, and is in a state of weak shock. The focus is on the progress of geopolitical events, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, and the opening of the spot market [4] - **Black Building Materials**: The prices of black - building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke are affected by factors such as cost support, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of shock [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The prices of non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of wide - range shock [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Energy - chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of high - volatility shock [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock are affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of shock [4][5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil markets, suggesting that shipping rates may increase further due to this disruption [4] - It highlights significant improvements in the economic performance of the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive trend in this sector [4] - The article raises questions about the broader implications for the global oil market if the Strait of Hormuz is cut off, emphasizing the strategic importance of this shipping route [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term. The mid - to long - term strategy for some commodities can consider building long positions by leveraging the discount advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The energy price increase raises inflation risks and suppresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the unexpected February non - farm payrolls in the US increase the risk of economic stagflation, which also supports the prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have a wide - ranging impact on the commodity market, affecting supply, demand, and cost factors of various commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Precious Metals**: Affected by factors such as inflation risk, economic stagflation risk, and geopolitical games, precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and platinum - palladium prices may fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Due to the deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories, copper prices are running weakly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The supply disturbances in the Middle East and the increase in energy costs are expected to drive aluminum prices to be strong. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbances in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has slightly declined, but the inventory has further accumulated, with a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and nickel prices may oscillate at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the steel mills' production schedule in March has increased significantly. The social inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are highly volatile and oscillating. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the price is expected to oscillate. After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has significant upward pressure, but due to geopolitical conflicts, it is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward trend. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive factors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply and geopolitical conflicts provide cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The cost is supported by the increase in energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are weak in the short term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand will be more relaxed in the medium term, with price pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of spot price cuts has begun, but the market has already priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The market is waiting to see, and industrial players can establish cash - and - carry positions in the 05 contract on rebounds [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, which in turn affects the prices of related energy and chemical products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, the market sentiment is positive, and the risk appetite of funds has recovered [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is relatively small, but the price is affected by the cost transmission of crude oil [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the festival, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the basis difference has expanded to a high level in the same period, and the raw material cost has strong support [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Due to the impact of the shutdown of upstream production, the inventory may turn into a deficit. The cost of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is in a loss state, with an increasing expectation of maintenance and production reduction [1]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors lead to a strong expectation of crude oil prices. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply, and the supply of PX is tight, which affects the downstream polyester industry [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to the reduction of raw materials caused by geopolitical factors, domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in prices [1]. - **Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene and styrene markets are strongly rising due to multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the spot supply of styrene is extremely tight [1]. - **Methanol**: The import from Iran is affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, the global production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the geopolitical conflict has an impact on the raw material supply, with a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - **LPG**: The price is affected by factors such as the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the CP price, and the domestic and overseas demand. The basis difference is expected to repair and expand, and the demand side is short - term bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, but the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a state of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar supply is also relatively abundant. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The Middle East conflict supports the prices of soybean and soybean meal. The short - term focus should be on international situation dynamics, and unilateral operations should be cautious [1]. - **Pulp**: The fundamental situation of pulp futures is weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price of logs has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The external quotation is expected to rise, providing upward momentum for the market [1]. - **Livestock**: The recent spot price has stabilized, the demand is supported, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends the allocation of TS and TF [1] Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict stage affects market expectations of inflation and the economy, and the Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset portfolio construction and manage the positions of risk assets in the short term [1] - The market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to the verification of real - world data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with shipping futures leading the gains, and energy, chemical, and other sectors also rising. Some varieties such as crude oil and asphalt had significant increases. However, basic metals and precious metals mostly declined [1] Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas: The stage of geopolitical conflict is crucial for the market's inflation and economic expectations, and the Fed will act when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended for asset allocation [1] - Domestic: After the release of the report, the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to data verification [1] Asset Views - Short - term: Downgrade the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommend the allocation of TS and TF. Stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by monetary tightening expectations [1] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial**: Stock index futures, index options, and bond futures are expected to be in a shock state. Risk factors still exist, and attention should be paid to factors such as incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate. Inflation expectations suppress interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to US fundamental data, Fed policies, and geopolitical trends [4] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European line in the second half of March stopped falling and rose, and the Middle East route is seeking alternative routes. The market is expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events and shipping traffic [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by geopolitical risks, costs are rising. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as mine production and policy dynamics [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and most basic metals are in a wide - range shock. Some varieties such as aluminum and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances and policy changes [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Geopolitical situations may lead to production cuts in oil - producing countries, and aromatics have a demand for price increases. Most varieties are expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the market, and agricultural products fluctuate greatly. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as geopolitical events, weather, and policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) experienced a significant decline of 6.91% at the opening on March 10, 2023, trading at 1.428 yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) has a performance benchmark of the CSI All Share Energy Index [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 53.08% [1] - The fund's return over the past month is reported at 17.00% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the Energy ETF include: - China Shenhua down 4.09% [1] - China Petroleum down 5.73% [1] - China Petrochemical down 7.14% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 4.37% [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 9.99% [1] - Jereh Group up 0.03% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining down 5.42% [1] - China Coal Energy down 9.67% [1] - Guanghui Energy down 8.89% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal down 3.67% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Selloffs in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan indicate rising supply-chain and energy risks that may impact U.S. markets as tensions in Iran escalate [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have experienced significant selloffs, reflecting investor concerns over regional stability and its potential effects on global markets [1] - The selloffs are driven by fears that escalating conflicts could disrupt supply chains and energy supplies, which are critical for economic stability [1] Group 2: Implications for U.S. Markets - The ongoing situation in Iran could lead to increased volatility in U.S. markets as investors react to potential supply disruptions [1] - Energy prices may rise due to heightened geopolitical tensions, which could further strain U.S. economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in China, highlighting both upward and downward trends in various sectors, including commodity prices, real estate, and infrastructure, while also addressing government policies aimed at regulating competition and promoting innovation. Group 1: Economic Trends - Commodity prices have significantly increased due to geopolitical conflicts, with the South China comprehensive index rising by 6.4% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 7.7% [2] - Oil prices have surged, with WTI closing at $90.9 per barrel (up 35.6%) and Brent at $92.7 per barrel (up 27.9%) [2][37] - The land premium rate has rebounded sharply, reaching 17.62% as of March 1, compared to a three-week average of 1.17% in late February [3] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant decline, with a 19% year-on-year drop in transaction area for 67 cities in early March [3] - The cement shipment rate remains low, recorded at 14.5% as of March 6, down approximately 1 percentage point from late February [3][16] - The opening and resumption rate of construction sites has remained consistent with last year's levels, with 10,692 sites reported as operational as of March 4 [18] Group 3: Interest Rates and Government Bonds - As of March 6, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.2858%, 1.5341%, and 1.7810%, respectively, showing slight decreases from late February [4][51] - The total expenditure for the year is projected to exceed 30 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate around 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan [43][44] Group 4: Trade and Export - The port container throughput has shown a marginal rebound, with a 6.4% increase compared to the previous week, although year-on-year growth has slightly declined [23] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 28.6% as of March 6 [24] Group 5: Price Movements - The prices of various commodities have shown mixed trends, with coal prices declining while lithium carbonate prices have surged by 19.3% [38] - The second-hand housing listing prices have decreased, with first-tier cities down by 0.9% and nationwide by 0.8% as of February 23 [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market has continued its high - volatility feature in the past week, with the focus shifting to the Middle East situation. The sharp rise in oil prices and freight rates has pushed up inflation expectations [5][9]. - Overseas, investors are closely watching the US - Iran war and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation. The macro - logic of the capital market has shifted from the divergence on AI to the unexpected inflation, weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the weak employment data has reignited stagflation concerns. The VIX index has risen significantly, and the rise in oil prices has driven up energy - chemical commodities. The rebound of the US dollar has suppressed non - US currencies, while the RMB has remained strong. The decline of gold and silver implies a rotation of funds and reflects investors' stronger expectation of stagflation than risk - aversion [5][9]. - Domestically, the misalignment of the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand have suppressed the economic recovery. The Two Sessions and practical economic goals have sent a stable signal, supporting the stability of the RMB exchange rate and making A - shares relatively resilient in the sharply declining Asia - Pacific stock markets [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - The capital market has high volatility, with the focus on the Middle East. Oil and freight price surges have pushed up inflation expectations. Overseas, the macro - logic has shifted to inflation, weakening Fed rate - cut expectations, and weak employment data has raised stagflation concerns. Domestically, the Spring Festival and weak demand have affected the economy, but the Two Sessions have provided stability [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market has risen, the stock market has fallen, and the commodity market has shown a weak and differentiated performance. The growth - style stocks have performed worse than value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index has a weekly change of - 5.75%, with 7 out of 10 commodity sub - indexes rising and 3 falling. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have led the decline, while the energy - chemical sector has been boosted by the Middle East situation [6][15]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has risen, the stock market has fallen, and the commodity market has shown a weak and differentiated performance. The growth - style stocks have performed worse than value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index has a weekly change of - 5.75%, with 7 out of 10 commodity sub - indexes rising and 3 falling. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have led the decline, while the energy - chemical sector has been boosted by the Middle East situation [6][15]. Capital Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a small overall inflow of funds, with a rotation among sectors. The energy, chemical, agricultural products, non - metallic building materials, and grain sectors have seen significant inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors have seen significant outflows [17]. Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures have risen with large gains. The top - rising commodity futures are the container shipping index, crude oil, and fuel oil, while the top - falling ones are tin futures, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon [21]. Market Sentiment - From the perspective of volume - price cooperation, there are few commodity futures with obvious long - position increases and price rises, such as pure benzene, ethylene glycol, and styrene. There are many commodity futures with obvious long - position increases and price falls, such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and palladium [24]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index has increased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index have also risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, except for the coking coal and steel ore sector, while the energy and agricultural products sectors have seen a notable increase in volatility [25]. Data Tracking - International commodities have shown mixed performance. The BDI has declined, the CRB has risen, soybeans and corn have closed up, oil prices have soared, and gold, silver, and copper have fallen sharply. The gold - oil ratio has dropped significantly from a high level [28]. - The asphalt production rate has rebounded from the bottom, real - estate sales have seasonally recovered but are still weak, freight rates have rebounded, and short - term capital interest rates are at a low level [45]. Macro Logic - The stock index has been weak and has fallen across the board. Valuations are under pressure, and the risk premium ERP has rebounded from a low level [31][32]. - Commodity price indexes have risen significantly, and inflation expectations have rebounded significantly [37]. - The US bond yield has rebounded overall, the term structure has steepened bearishly, the term spread has fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate has first declined and then risen, and the gold price has risen and then fallen [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" has fluctuated, the Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread has rebounded after a significant decline [63]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased. The expected probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% is 56.9%, significantly higher than last week's 43.7%. The expected probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% has decreased from 45.2% to 37.4%. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][70]. Economic Data - The US non - farm payroll data in February 2026 was significantly worse than expected. The non - farm employment population decreased by 92,000, far exceeding the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 62% [75][83]. - China's inflation data in February 2026 exceeded expectations. The CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (March 9): Japan's January trade balance, China's February CPI annual rate, Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index, US February New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - Tuesday (March 10): Germany's January seasonally adjusted trade balance, US February NFIB small business confidence index, US February existing home sales annualized, China's February M2 money supply annual rate, and the US Department of Commerce will hold a round - table meeting for US robot manufacturers. - Wednesday (March 11): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6, US February unadjusted CPI annual rate, US February seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6, and OPEC will release its monthly oil market report. - Thursday (March 12): US 10 - year Treasury auction on March 11, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7, US January trade balance, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending March 6, and the IEA will release its monthly oil market report. - Friday (March 13): UK's January three - month GDP monthly rate, Eurozone's January industrial output monthly rate, US January core PCE price index annual rate, US January personal expenditure monthly rate, US fourth - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision, US January durable goods orders monthly rate, US January JOLTs job openings, US March one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, and US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [86].

Core Viewpoint - The current market risks are not merely about stock price declines but rather a shift in narrative, as indicated by the rising CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) approaching 30, suggesting a transition from a bullish to a defensive market stance [2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment that previously supported the stock market is being shaken by new variables, including rising oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, renewed inflation uncertainties, and weakened expectations for interest rate cuts [3][6]. - Historical data shows that rising oil prices during geopolitical tensions often lead to concerns about inflation rather than supply shortages, as energy prices are a direct catalyst for inflation [6]. - The Federal Reserve's high interest rates, maintained above 5% from 2022 to 2024, were initially expected to ease by 2025-2026, but rising oil prices could fundamentally alter this narrative, delaying potential rate cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Market Structure and Sector Performance - The current market has developed a clear four-layer structure, indicating a divergence in capital flows. The most resilient sectors include energy and certain defense industries, which benefit from rising oil prices [12]. - AI hardware and infrastructure companies are also attracting capital due to their clear orders and technological barriers, viewed as essential in the ongoing AI development trend [12]. - Conversely, sectors like transportation, airlines, and discretionary consumer goods are highly sensitive to energy prices, with rising oil costs likely to lead to downward revisions in earnings expectations [12][13]. - Small-cap stocks and high-leverage cyclical stocks are facing significant challenges due to high financing costs and growth uncertainties, leading to underperformance compared to larger indices like the S&P 500 [13]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. CPI data is critical for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. A sustained decline in core inflation could maintain optimistic market expectations for rate cuts, while an unexpected rise would necessitate a reevaluation of the entire rate-cutting cycle [9][10]. - The technology sector is approaching a pivotal moment with earnings reports from companies like Oracle and Adobe, which will serve as key indicators of AI investment returns. The substantial capital expenditures in AI, projected to exceed $200 billion by 2025, raise questions about the timing of revenue and profit realization [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Market Signals - As the VIX approaches 30, the market is entering a phase characterized by conflicting narratives between AI-driven profit growth expectations and macroeconomic pressures from energy and inflation [15]. - Investors are advised to focus on three key signals: the trajectory of oil prices, movements in U.S. Treasury yields, and the performance of technology stocks. Maintaining balance among these factors could allow for structural market opportunities [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most varieties are expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. For the medium - to - long - term, strategies can be formulated according to the characteristics of each variety, such as constructing long positions in combination with the premium advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The escalation of the Middle East situation has a wide - ranging impact on the market, affecting the risk appetite, supply, and cost of various commodities, and leading to different trends in different varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories have led to a weak operation of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the continuous increase in the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has declined slightly, but the inventory has further increased, and the fundamentals are still weak. The short - term price will oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply due to the Middle East situation can support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The tightening concerns of the RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel ore have resurfaced, the quota approval is slow, the nickel ore premium remains high, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the MHP raw material supply. Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level and are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After the festival, raw material prices have risen, steel mills' production in March has increased significantly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and there is still raw material support. Stainless steel futures will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: Inflation risks have increased, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Tin will oscillate with high volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1]. 3.2 Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. However, the poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and combined with the Middle East geopolitical game and private credit risks in the United States, precious metal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Platinum and Lithium**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. The poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Platinum and lithium prices may oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - **Industrial Silicon**: There is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreased by 88 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory is at a low level, the demand expectation is weak, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mine end. It is bullish [1]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking pressure needs to be tested in the future. The price oscillates [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price. It is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward market under geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and in the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the first round of spot price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun. However, the previous low has already factored in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, so there is not much market trading. The digital targets given by the domestic two sessions are basically in line with expectations. As energy and chemical products rise and other assets perform poorly, the market is moving towards the stagflation logic. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the situation. Energy - related varieties should avoid speculative short positions, and coking coal and coke should be mainly on the sidelines. The industry can take advantage of the rebound opportunity to establish spot - futures positive hedging positions in the 05 contract [1]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of palm oil through the biodiesel demand. However, the current fundamental pressure of palm oil is large, with high inventory in Malaysia, the production season, and the consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of soybean oil through the biodiesel demand. However, after the end of the Southeast Asian Ramadan, the incremental export of domestic soybean oil may decline rhythmically, and the large arrival of soybeans in April will also bring pressure. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, the USDA expects that the global cotton inventory will tighten in the 2026/27 season due to production cuts in major producing countries and increased consumption. China's import demand is expected to increase by 25%, and the export of US cotton will slightly increase but face competition from Brazil. Recently, the export sales of US cotton have reached a new high for the year, and Trump's visit to China may further expand the import of US agricultural products, which is beneficial to the export of US cotton. Domestically, the cotton inventory is high, the willingness of textile enterprises to replenish inventory is weak, the supply is abundant, the demand is stable and resilient, and the import substitution pressure brought by the internal - external price difference exists. The policy is stable, and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is the core variable. The domestic cotton price will gradually rise with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. India has a significant increase in production, Brazil's production remains high, and Thailand's slight production cut has limited impact. The overall supply of major producing countries is abundant. With the expectation of the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil, the supply pressure in the global sugar market continues to increase. Domestically, the supply of domestic sugar is in a loose pattern in the 2025/26 season. The production of cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated crushing, and the domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year. The arrival of imported sugar is stable, and the industrial inventory is high. The total domestic supply is abundant, and the market has changed from a tight balance to a slight surplus. Overall, it is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will have a ceiling and a floor and will not fluctuate significantly, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices will continue. The short - term inventory replenishment demand and geopolitical risks support the disk to oscillate strongly, but the downstream profit is poor, and it is expected to increase the use of other substitutes. In addition, pay attention to policy risks, such as the release of policy grains such as aged rice and changes in import policy orientation [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The continuous Middle East conflict has raised concerns about the increase in shipping costs and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the US soybean and soybean meal disks. In the short term, pay attention to the international situation. The sustainability of the war is difficult to estimate, and be cautious in unilateral operations [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The weak fundamentals of paper pulp futures are difficult to change in the short term. The whole industry chain is accumulating inventory, and the price increase letters of domestic finished paper are difficult to implement. Affected by the macro - sentiment of commodities, paper pulp futures have increased in price with reduced positions. Pay attention to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the foreign quotation is relatively clear, so the disk has an upward driving force. At the same time, the foreign quotation has increased due to the impact of shipping costs. Pay attention to the domestic acceptance [1]. - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation of crude oil has strengthened significantly. The Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supply from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle East situation, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in market risk appetite have all affected fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian asphalt imports on the domestic market is not large, but the price transmission of crude oil on the cost side affects asphalt, which is relatively weak among energy varieties [1]. - **BD and BR Rubber**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has a great impact on the raw material imports in Northeast Asia. Refineries have chosen to stop production for maintenance and suspend external sales due to the lack of raw materials. The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have room to rise. The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom, the price of Japanese light naphtha is still rising, and the overseas cracking device capacity is being cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene devices has remained in a loss state, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback is gradually being realized. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of BD/BR may turn to a de - stocking expectation under the influence of upstream production suspension [1]. - **PX**: The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and the physical PX has begun to be in short supply. Due to the extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment has been rapid, and the polyester's operating load is also lower than expected [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Asian naphtha cracking devices have undergone large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. South Korea, as the largest naphtha cracking center in Asia, has synchronously launched production - cut plans, and the overall operating rate has dropped sharply. Domestic refineries have also taken actions to reduce production and load to deal with the possible reduction of raw materials. Domestic ethylene glycol devices have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene market has risen driven by the soaring energy prices, and multiple disturbances on the supply side are also affecting the price. The Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, providing strong support for oil prices. The middle and lower reaches are buying goods crazily, the market is cautious in selling, and the trading atmosphere is crazy. The overseas pure benzene devices have concentrated production cuts and declared force majeure. The overseas styrene market has shown a strong upward pattern under multiple disturbances on the supply side. The downstream and traders of styrene are replenishing goods crazily, resulting in an extremely tight supply of styrene spot. Any unexpected interruption may cause the price to soar further [1]. - **Methanol**: Iran's imports have a significant impact. The mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran have led to the shutdown of some devices, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented Iranian methanol from being transported out. However, the current domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. - **PE**: The geopolitical situation has heated up, crude oil has risen, and the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, freight has risen, and the ethylene - based method is facing the problem of raw material shortage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in March is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has recovered, and the PG trend is strong. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and it is expected that the basis will continue to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the disk. The port is continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil gas is relatively abundant, resulting in a divergence in the internal and external market trends and a deviation between FEI and PG [1].