能源化工期权 2026-01-15 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as policy changes, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, showing different trends and characteristics in different sectors. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: There are differences between bulls and bears, and the market is volatile. Short - term market is affected by policy and may fluctuate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Suggestions include short - term grid operations, IM\IC 2606 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buy option strategies [18][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The performance is differentiated, and the trend is unclear. Short - term market sentiment is repaired, but the odds of going long are limited. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions in batches, and consider shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is obvious, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to have a bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [26][28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are falling, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and domestic sugar can be considered for low - buying and high - selling in the range [29][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations and Indonesia's policy, the oils market is falling. It is recommended to have a short - term oscillating view on oils and try shorting palm oil at high prices [34][37]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to have a bullish view on outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, and short - term long on 07 corn after correction [38][40][41]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, but the market is still strong. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell wide - straddle options [41][42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. - **Eggs**: Demand improves, and prices are stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the far - month 5 - contract at low prices [46][49]. - **Apples**: Cold - storage inventory is low, and prices are firm. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 5 - month contract long positions and short the 10 - month contract at high prices [50][52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to go long on Zheng cotton at low prices [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel is turning to inventory accumulation, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish view, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [61][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish at high prices [64][65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish view and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [68][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The tariff ruling fails again, and the previous trading logic continues. It is recommended to hold long positions near the 5 - day moving average and use a collar option bullish strategy [71][74][75]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical tensions lead to high - level oscillations. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and be cautious about going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced [75][77][78]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the bullish trend remains. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [80][82][83]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals increases price fluctuations. The price is under pressure due to factors such as potential inventory increase and cost decline [84][86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It is oscillating at a high level, and it is necessary to be vigilant about market sentiment cooling. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the oscillation [87][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to continue to oscillate at a high level with the sector [92][93]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the impact of capital. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors hold short positions with strict position control [94][96][97]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to capital sentiment. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [98][100][101]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian remarks stimulate price increases. It is recommended to have a bullish view at low prices [102][103][104]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long after correction and stabilization [104][105][107]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the range. The medium - term demand is weakening [108]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to factors such as policy and market sentiment [109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The position is decreasing, and there may be a correction. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [111][115][116]. - **Tin**: Bulls are enthusiastic, and prices reach a new high. It is recommended to be cautious about high - level fluctuations [116][118][119]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The second - stage negotiation of the Palestine - Israel issue is in progress, and prices will continue to decline in the second half of January. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct a 6 - 10 positive arbitrage [121][122]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Continue to pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a wide - range oscillating view and pay attention to the Iran event [123][124][125]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil cost fluctuations increase, and supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and hold the BU4 - 6 positive arbitrage [125][128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks increase fluctuations. It is recommended to be vigilant about risks and hold the FU59 positive arbitrage [130][132]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH continues to decline. It is recommended to add short positions on TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell long - term rolling out - of - the - money call options [133][136]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view [137][138][139]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and cost support strengthens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and conduct a 3,5 - contract positive arbitrage [140][141][142]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and styrene short - stops boost the rise. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term and conduct an arbitrage of short pure benzene and long styrene [142][143][144]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell call options [144][146]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand weakens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [146][147][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: Prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [148][149][150]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to have a bullish view [151][153]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions on L and PP 2605 contracts and sell the PP2605 put 6100 contract [154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices are weakening. It is recommended to have a bearish view [156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: This week, it shows a wide - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to short at an appropriate time and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month at a high level [158][161]. - **Glass**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to wait and short at an appropriate time and conduct an arbitrage of short glass and long soda ash [162][163][164]. - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [164][165][166]. - **Logs**: The spot rebounds slightly. It is recommended to go long in small quantities and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [167][168][169]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The rebound of cultural paper is weak. It is recommended to wait and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 options [170][171]. - **Natural Rubber**: Global automobile sales slow down slightly. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU 05 contract and hold long positions on the NR 03 contract [172][175]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Crude oil freight increases marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 03 contract [176][178].

Group 1 - The market appears stable with no significant volatility, but there are underlying changes that have not been fully priced in by the market [2][3] - The macroeconomic fundamentals show that while the manufacturing sector struggles, the service sector remains strong, indicating no acceleration in the U.S. economy but also no recession [3][4] - The "no firing, no hiring" trend is not detrimental to risk assets, as the Federal Reserve has reasons to maintain a loose monetary policy [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar has potential for short-term rebounds but is unlikely to experience significant trends, with the market's confidence remaining fragile [5][7] - The real risk for the dollar lies in changes within the Federal Reserve's structure rather than economic data [9][10] - The market is currently viewing the dollar as a trading asset rather than a long-term investment, with potential opportunities in the British pound [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has shifted from defensive to cyclical stocks, with a focus on earnings realization rather than storytelling [13][15] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, particularly for banks, with significant reports expected in late January and early February [18][21] - The market's low expectations for fourth-quarter earnings may reduce the risk of collective disappointments [21][23] Group 4 - Oil prices are facing underestimation of supply-side challenges, particularly regarding the recovery of production from Venezuela [29] - The difficulty in restoring production and geopolitical influences may alter supply-demand expectations, increasing the probability of a mid-term bottom for oil prices [29][31] Group 5 - In Japan, discussions about the central bank's interest rate policies are becoming less relevant as fiscal changes take precedence [32][33] - The market is pricing the yen in a manner similar to emerging markets, with short-term interest rates rising while the yen weakens [33][34]

新华财经纽约1月14日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会14日发布的全国经济形势调查报告显示， 根据截至5日收到的信息，在最近一个报告期内，美国12个联邦储备区有8个报告整体经济活动出现轻度 至温和增加，3个没有变化，1个出现温和下降。 报告表示，展望未来，企业预期物价上涨会有一些回落，但预计物价在其应对成本增加过程中将依然处 于高位。 联储每年发布8次"褐皮书"，通过联邦储备银行对全美经济形势进行摸底。该报告是美联储货币政策会 议的重要参考资料。下一次美联储货币政策会议将于1月27日至28日举行。 编辑：吴郑思 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 报告说，与此前三个报告周期中大多数联邦储备区报告没有什么变化相比，最新的报告显示经济活动出 现改善。 根据美国"联邦储备法"，美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区，每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12 家联邦储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成，也称"褐皮书"。 报告表示，很大程度上得益于假日购物季，大多银行表示报告期内消费支出出现轻度至温和增长。不同 联邦储备区制造业活动情况参差不一，非金融服务业需求总体表现稳定到有所增长，农业情况大体保持 不变。 报告说，对未来经 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices declined, with the Dow Jones falling by 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49,149.63, the Nasdaq dropping by 238.12 points (1%) to 23,471.75, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 37.14 points (0.53%) to 6,926.6 [1] - In Europe, the DAX30 index fell by 133.91 points (0.53%) to 25,277.53, while the FTSE 100 rose by 34.81 points (0.34%) to 10,172.16 [2] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin surpassed $97,000, gaining over 2% in a single day, while Ethereum briefly reached $3,400 [2] Commodities - Precious metals continued their upward trend, with gold rising by 0.86% to $4,626.02 and silver breaking through $93 [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.6% to $60.16 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 1.5% to $64.48 per barrel [3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that 8 out of 12 districts experienced slight to moderate economic growth, with consumer spending showing mild to moderate increases due to the holiday shopping season [4] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported chips not used for domestic AI, potentially generating billions in revenue [4] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its lowest level of the year, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and strong auction demand [5] Company News - Elon Musk's xAI is under investigation by California's Attorney General for allegedly generating inappropriate images through its Grok chatbot [7] - KeyBanc has initiated an "Overweight" rating for Microsoft with a target price of $630 [7]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600704 证券简称：物产中大 公告编号：2026-002 物产中大集团股份有限公司关于控股子公司 收购湖州南太湖电力科技有限公司 全部股权的进展暨完成工商变更登记的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 物产中大集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于2025年7月17日及2026年1月13日披露了公司控股 子公司浙江物产环保能源股份有限公司（以下简称"物产环能"）收购湖州南太湖电力科技有限公司（以 下简称"南太湖科技"）全部股权的相关公告。公司控股子公司物产环能以自筹资金145,730万元受让美 欣达欣旺能源有限公司持有的南太湖科技100%股权。具体内容详见公司于上海证券交易所官网披露的 《物产中大集团股份有限公司关于控股子公司收购湖州南太湖电力科技有限公司全部股权的公告》（公 告编号：2025-047）、《物产中大集团股份有限公司关于控股子公司收购湖州南太湖电力科技有限公司 全部股权的进展公告》（公告编号：2026-001）。 近日，南太湖科技 ...

Group 1: Capital Market Development - Inner Mongolia has achieved continuous IPOs for five consecutive years, with 12 new companies listed, and the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 1 trillion yuan [1][7] - The region has established a multi-level market system, enhancing direct financing and supporting the growth of strategic emerging industries [1][7] - The "Tianjun Plan" has been implemented to assist companies in listing, integrating high-quality services and financial resources to boost economic development [6][7] Group 2: Industry Highlights - Inner Mongolia is a significant player in the dairy industry, with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu driving green development and digital transformation [1][2] - The region's unique ecological initiatives have led to the creation of the world's largest organic milk source base, showcasing the integration of ecology and industry [1][2] - The rare earth industry is a cornerstone of Inner Mongolia's economy, with companies like Northern Rare Earth leading in production and market value [3][4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Inner Mongolia's listed companies have seen significant capital operations, with major asset restructurings and a total of approximately 23.77 billion yuan raised through refinancing [8] - Cash dividends from 28 companies reached 93.03 billion yuan, doubling the amount from the previous five-year period, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [8] - The region has maintained a zero-default record on public market bonds for five consecutive years, reinforcing its creditworthiness [9]

Core Viewpoint - December exports showed strong performance, supported by pricing effects, new product launches, and improvements in external demand [2][7] Group 1: Export Performance - December exports (in USD) increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.2% and the previous value of 5.9% [1][4] - The increase in exports reflects both structural and aggregate factors, with a 0.7 percentage point rise from November [2][7] - The appreciation of the RMB since November contributed to a 0.4 percentage point increase in total exports due to pricing effects [2][7] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Consumer electronics exports rose significantly by 16.3 percentage points to 19.6%, driven by new smartphone launches and improved external demand [3][22] - Exports of production materials also improved, with aluminum, integrated circuits, and steel seeing increases of 23.9%, 13.6%, and 3.5% respectively [3][22] - Import of processing trade increased by 3.8 percentage points to 5.7%, indicating a continuation of export improvement [29][57] Group 3: Country-Level Insights - Exports to emerging economies showed strong performance, with a 1.4 percentage point increase to 13.5% year-on-year [14][22] - Exports to ASEAN and India rose by 2.9 and 14 percentage points to 11.1% and 22.1% respectively [14][22] - Exports to developed economies, particularly the US and Europe, experienced a decline, with a limited drop of 1.5% to -30% for the US [14][54] Group 4: Future Outlook - The competitive advantage of Chinese exports is expected to remain strong, with projections for 2026 indicating sustained resilience in exports [4][36] - The industrialization of emerging countries is anticipated to drive demand for production materials, supporting China's export growth [4][36] - Potential easing of US-China tariffs and ongoing inventory replenishment in the US may lead to a rebound in exports to the US [4][36]

Economic Data Summary - Wholesale prices increased by 0.2% in November, which was below the expected 0.3% gain, but slightly higher than October's figure [1] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, remained flat against expectations of a 0.2% increase, while headline PPI rose 3% year-over-year, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - The increase in PPI was largely driven by a 0.9% rise in goods prices, with over 80% of this attributed to a 4.6% surge in energy prices [2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales rose by 0.6% in November, surpassing the expected 0.4% increase, with sales excluding autos up by 0.5% compared to the 0.3% estimate [3] - The year-over-year retail sales growth was 3.3%, outpacing the 2.7% increase in the consumer price index for the same month [4] - Various sectors, including motor vehicle dealers, building materials, gas stations, and sporting goods stores, reported sales gains exceeding 1% [3] Market Reaction - Financial markets showed minimal reaction to the economic data, with stock futures indicating a downward trend and Treasury yields remaining flat [4] - Traders are pricing in virtually no chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the upcoming meeting [4]

华尔街向来热衷于创造朗朗上口的英文缩写，以此概括交易逻辑，比如代表科技龙头的FANG（指的是 Facebook、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet）、描述市场情绪的FOMO（错失恐惧）/YOLO（人 生苦短，及时行乐），还有戏谑关税政策的TACO（特朗普总是临阵退缩）。 如今，奈德・戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）首席美国策略师埃德・克利索尔德（Ed Clissold） 打算创造一个新名词——Big MAC交易，这个缩写对应的是"中期选举大战将至（Big Midterms Are Coming）"。他想用这个概念，概括他眼中2026年美股市场的核心主题：今年秋季国会选举前后的政策 走向及其影响。 Sevens Report创始人汤姆・埃塞耶（Tom Essaye）称，政府政策"乱象"是2026年市场面临的又一风险。 他担忧的是，市场对特朗普近期多次试图改写经济和商业政策的举动反应平淡，这或许释放出一个信 号：市场对政策细节的变动已趋于麻木。 "这是我们未来需要密切关注的风险，因为市场对政策不确定性的漠视，似乎正在助长本届政府的激进 倾向。"他在周一的报告中写道。 埃塞耶补 ...