1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, while the cost of purchased lithium mica remained flat. The production profit from spodumene was positive, while that from lithium mica was negative. The cost of the salt lake end was lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation was neutral overall [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The supply surplus situation has intensified, and the lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,900 - 67,420 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with increases and decreases. The basis also showed different degrees of change, mostly narrowing [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.15%, while the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of positive electrode materials and lithium batteries also showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of some ternary precursors decreased, while the price of some lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. The cost and profit of lithium ore production also changed. For example, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 0.09%, and the production profit increased significantly [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% compared with the previous month [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was 24,450 tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous month [17]. 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. The price and cost of lithium batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 1.93% [17]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of ternary precursors increased in some series [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the price of some ternary materials decreased slightly [66]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: The production, demand, and price of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphorus iron increased by 2.09% [71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate and inventory index also changed. For example, the production of new energy vehicles decreased slightly, and the sales penetration rate decreased by 5.96% [79][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rebound of lithium carbonate futures has deviated significantly from the fundamentals. Although the demand for new energy vehicles remains resilient, factors such as the widening of the spot discount, the continuous increase in inventory, and the narrowing profit margins of downstream cell enterprises all suppress high prices. Short - term capital push may continue under the influence of market news, but as new production capacities such as the Mami Cuo Salt Lake are gradually put into operation, and the resistance of cathode material manufacturers to high prices increases, it is expected that the futures price will return to the fundamental logic within the next 1 - 2 weeks, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the previous trading day. However, the basis weakened significantly, expanding from - 580 yuan/ton on July 11 to - 2,680 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient follow - up power in the spot market. The trading volume of the main contract soared 151.87% to 1.015 million lots, reaching a recent single - day high, and the open interest increased 10.31% to 356,000 lots [1] - **Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Changes**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity slightly increased to 62%, and the medium - term supply was expected to be loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton respectively, and there was no obvious pressure on the cost side. In early July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 21% year - on - year but decreased 11% month - on - month, with short - term demand growth slowing down. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose moderately, while most cell prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials and mainly made rigid purchases. The social inventory of lithium carbonate climbed for four consecutive weeks to 141,000 physical tons, reaching a new high this year, and the warehouse receipts also accumulated, indicating insufficient actual digestion capacity in the spot market [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 64,280 yuan/ton on July 11 to 66,480 yuan/ton on July 14, an increase of 3.42%. The basis weakened from - 580 yuan/ton to - 2,680 yuan/ton, a change rate of - 362.07%. The open interest of the main contract increased 10.31%, and the trading volume increased 151.87%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium concentrates and some related products also had corresponding changes [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. The abnormal fluctuations in the futures market were mainly driven by short - term capital flows, not directly related to the industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the general acceptance range of downstream enterprises, and only some enterprises with rigid procurement needs maintained basic transactions. Although some lithium salt producers have tried to adjust prices, the overall quotation strategy remains cautious [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale volume was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 0% [7] - **Industry News**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment in a project that received a construction permit, which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes. Zhongkuang Resources plans to carry out a technical upgrade project for its lithium salt production line. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project has a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan and is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 64,280, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 402,816, and the open interest was 322,860. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 63,920, the trading volume was 49,743, and the open interest was 106,621 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 11,603 hands, a decrease of 1,588 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 530, and spot - 2511 was - 170. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was 360 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 674, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,405 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,750, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,150 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,150 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Project Plan**: Lithium Harvest, a subsidiary of the US Sustainable Projects Group, plans to build a lithium carbonate production facility with an annual output of 9,000 tons in Alberta, Canada, using direct lithium extraction technology (DLE). It is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2026, doubling the existing lithium production capacity in Canada [4]. - **Battery Export**: In June 2025, China's power and other batteries exported a total of 24.4GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export reached 127.3GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.8% [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be relatively loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to the previous week. The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 8, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 65,100 yuan/ton, 64,240 yuan/ton, 63,740 yuan/ton, and 63,740 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases of 1,500 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 545,405 lots, an increase of 332,101 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 338,034 lots, an increase of 15,500 lots [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,655 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts increased by 1,180 yuan/ton to 860 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 658 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained, domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Some production enterprises have maintenance plans, which may affect production. For example, some lithium carbonate production enterprises in Jiangxi will be under maintenance for 15 - 20 days, potentially affecting 1,000 tons of production. However, some new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, such as the 1,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity of Guangdong Haizhou Lithium Battery may be put into production in July 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The production volume of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate materials in China in July may increase month - on - month. For example, the first - phase 25,000 - ton project of Hubei Ruipai New Energy Technology may be commissioned at the end of June and reach full production by the end of the year [3][4]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. Due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expected expansion of the automotive scale, the prices of domestic lithium carbonate production and imports have risen, but the supply - demand situation remains complex. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 63,600 yuan/ton, 63,920 yuan/ton, 63,520 yuan/ton, and 63,520 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 213,304 lots, a decrease of 134,425 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Spreads**: The inventory of the near - month to consecutive - one contracts was 15,555 tons, a decrease of 5,481 tons from the previous day; the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 654 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The average prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained mostly unchanged [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The prices of products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and negative electrode materials showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1] Company News - **Yuntu Holdings**: On July 7, 2025, Yuntu Holdings announced that it owns three phosphate mines in Leibo County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province. The Ajuluogang phosphate mine's 2.9 - million - ton annual mining and beneficiation project started construction in March and is under accelerated construction; the Niuniuzhai East phosphate mine's 4 - million - ton annual mining project is optimizing the mining and beneficiation plan design; the Niuniuzhai West phosphate mine is promoting the "exploration - to - mining" procedures. After production, it will meet the local yellow phosphorus production needs and transport products to production bases in Hubei and Guangxi via waterways [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium**: Ganfeng Lithium's project has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's 50,700 - ton wet - brine project in Shijian, Jianglin City may be put into production in October 2020, and the total output will reach 201,000 tons per year [3] - **Other Companies**: Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate drying project may be put into production in January 2022; Zijin Hengyuan's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity may be completed and put into production on January 9, 2021. Some companies' production lines are under maintenance or upgrading, and some projects are in the process of construction or commissioning [3] Production and Supply - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in China in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventories of smelters, traders, and downstream enterprises have increased compared with the previous week [1][3] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The production of lithium hydroxide in China in October may decrease month - on - month. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises in July may increase month - on - month, and the monthly export volume may decrease month - on - month [3][4] - **Phosphoric Acid and Related Products**: The production of phosphoric acid in China has decreased compared with the previous week. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China may increase month - on - month, and the production and export volume of some related products may also increase [3][4] Investment Strategy - Due to the complex supply - demand situation of domestic lithium carbonate, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 due to the end of technological upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategies recommended include LC09 - 11 calendar spread trading, shorting LC2511 at high prices, and selling call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 25.9% [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan (0.60%); the trading volume was 213,300 lots, down 134,429 lots (- 38.66%); the open interest was 322,535 lots, down 2,753 lots (- 0.85%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 63,340 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.51%); the trading volume was 20,140 lots, down 15,366 lots (- 43.28%); the open interest was 97,999 lots, up 950 lots (0.98%) [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread was 480 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (9.09%); the LC09 - 11 month - spread was 320 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (23%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread was - 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (- 13%) [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ore showed little change, except for the fastmarkets Li₂O:6% lithium ore, which decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton (- 0.37%) [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.41%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.4%); the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 52,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.08%); the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF for China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.1 dollars/kg, unchanged; the fastmarkets price was 8.05 dollars/kg, down 0.15 dollars/kg (- 1.82%) [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The electrolyte - lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen - electric - carbon spread was 420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (- 37.31%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF for Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 399.86 yuan/ton, up 26.51 yuan (7.10%) [21]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte remained unchanged [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract showed little change [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots compared to the previous day, with different changes in each warehouse or sub - warehouse [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate [30].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products and other chemical products have different trends, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 600, 660, 620, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 800 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 347,729 lots, a decrease of 73,238 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 325,288 lots, a decrease of 8,769 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21,036 tons, a decrease of 1,844 tons from the previous day [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 60 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts decreased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts remained unchanged. The basis increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 653 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day; the average prices of various types of lithium mica also increased to varying degrees [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and other materials also had different changes [1] 3.3 Company News - **Codal Mining**: It signed a purchase agreement for the expansion of the DMS processing plant's spodumene concentrate in the Bougouni lithium project with Hainan Mining. The DMS processing plant has produced over 1,000 tons of spodumene concentrate and is working on obtaining export licenses. The first - phase project is expected to produce 100,000 - 120,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually [2] - **Anhui Anwa New Energy**: Its self - developed world's first 3.0 - level new solid - state battery production line's first batch of engineering samples was successfully launched. The first - generation product has an energy density of over 300Wh/kg, and the company plans to launch the third - generation all - solid - state battery with an energy density exceeding 500Wh/kg in 2027 [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Its Mali Gooldariness lithium project's first - phase with an annual capacity of 0.6 million tons of fine ore has been put into production [3] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Its 35,000 - ton wet - process project in Jianglin City may be put into production in June 2026, and the total capacity will reach 215,000 tons per year [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate production in July may increase month - on - month, but the import volume has decreased. The production of lithium hydroxide may decrease in October. The production of lithium iron phosphate and other products may increase in July [3][5] - **Demand**: The demand for lithium salts from downstream cathode material factories is mainly based on rigid procurement. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in July may increase month - on - month [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report focuses on lithium carbonate with a monthly review cycle, written on July 1, 2025 [1] 2. Market Review - In June, affected by supply - demand changes and relevant stimulus policies, the futures price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, increasing by 2420 yuan/ton (4.04%) for the whole month. The highest price of the main contract 2509 was 63600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 58400 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61300 yuan/ton, the average spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59700 yuan/ton, the futures closed at 62260 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 960 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated frequently, with a downward trend in the first ten - day period due to pessimistic market expectations and a certain rebound in the last ten - day period affected by some news and capital games, but still in a weak pattern [3] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.1 Domestic Production - In June, domestic lithium carbonate production remained at a relatively high level. Some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises had slightly fluctuating production due to raw material supply and cost issues, while salt - lake and spodumene - based lithium extraction enterprises maintained stable production. In Jiangxi, some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises reduced production by about 5 - 8% month - on - month due to high lithium mica concentrate prices. In Qinghai salt - lake areas, production increased by about 3 - 5% month - on - month due to the summer production peak. According to SMM data, the total domestic lithium carbonate production in June was about 35,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 2% [4] 3.2 Import Situation - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate declined. Customs data showed that the total import volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3%, and the average import price was about 12,309 US dollars/ton. Among them, about 15,700 tons were imported from Chile and about 3400 tons from Argentina. The decrease in imports alleviated the oversupply situation to some extent, but the overall supply was still sufficient [4] 3.3 Power Battery Field - In June, the production and sales data of the new energy vehicle market were good, and the growth rate remained at a certain level [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - downward cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt price decline again". When the futures rebound, there is a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price hike", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals and the price will fall again [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will rise in a volatile manner at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected demand in the off - season; the futures price will decline in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical reforms and increased production [3]. - Strategy recommendations: LC09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage; short LC2511 contracts at high prices; sell call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.3% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling LC2509 lithium carbonate futures, 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, they can buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Analysis - **Lithium Market Core Contradiction**: The lithium market is facing inventory pressure, slow de - stocking, and a medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance. There are two short - term price - movement logics [3]. - **Lithium Market利多因素**: Improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warehouse receipts will boost the futures market price [6]. - **Lithium Market利空因素**: High future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure on ore prices, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium ore and lithium salt, and postponed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [5][7]. Market Data - **Futures Market Data**: - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day; the trading volume is 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots or 22.11%; the open interest is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots or 2.61% [9]. - The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 63,720 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.25%; the trading volume is 36,817 lots, down 10,160 lots or 21.63%; the open interest is 98,399 lots, up 4,871 lots or 5.21% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Market Data**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,315 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.14% [18]. - **Lithium Salt Market Data**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate have increased, while the prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan or 0.75% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread Data**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and the domestic market has increased [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 22,880, a decrease of 300 from the previous day [36]. Downstream Market Data - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.36% [33].