1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strengthening, with high production, rising downstream demand, and social inventory depletion. The short - term fundamentals change little, but beware of the repeated "reversal" sentiment. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, buy on dips and appropriately purchase options for protection if it drops excessively, or buy straddle options [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 5999 lots (- 67314), and the open interest was 34996 lots (- 1917). The spot market showed a rising trend, and the basis premium decreased [1] - The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume and open interest of the active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased, while the prices of lithium mica (different grades), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (different grades), and most lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary materials changed to varying degrees [1] - The price differences between different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 550 [1] 3.3 Lithium Inventory - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed different trends in different sectors. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2847 tons, the inventory of downstream increased by 3224 tons, and the inventory of others decreased by 1090 tons. The total inventory decreased by 713 tons [1] 3.4 Industry News - SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. plans to invest about 800 million yuan to expand its lithium carbonate production capacity in Xinjiang from 500 tons to 10,000 tons. Jiuwu Hi - tech and Lanxiao Technology won the bids for the core systems in the equipment procurement of this expansion project [1] - Australian miner Galan Lithium obtained 20 million Australian dollars (equivalent to 13 million US dollars) in financing for its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina. The project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026 and has 7.86 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,640 - 81,120 [8][9]. - The overall situation of the lithium - related industry is affected by factors such as production capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily -环比 cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,817 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,516 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 81,868 yuan/ton, a 3.53% daily decrease, with a loss of 5,641 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The basis of the 11 - contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The overall inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have different degrees of changes, including increases and decreases [16]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products show different trends of increase and decrease [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore shows a certain trend of change, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has different levels of production in different months and years [26]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [29]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) show different trends [32]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume from Chile to China has also shown a downward trend [32][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) show different trends [41]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different months and years [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials) show different trends [46][49]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) shows different trends of increase and decrease [19][54]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) shows different trends [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries show different trends, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changes in different years [58]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium - battery cells shows different trends [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursor shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary precursors also shows different trends [63]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors show different trends [63]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary materials also shows different trends [69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials show different trends [69][71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of iron phosphate lithium also shows different trends [73]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different trends [76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium shows different trends [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles show different trends, and the sales penetration rate also changes [81][82]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers show different trends [85].

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance fell short of expectations, with significant declines in revenue and net profit due to falling lithium prices and increased financial costs [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenue of 8.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -531 million yuan, down 30.13% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was -913 million yuan [1]. - For 2Q25, the company achieved revenue of 4.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.07%. However, the net profit was -175 million yuan, and the non-recurring net profit was -671 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 814.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176.91% [1]. - The decline in lithium prices led to a decrease in profits and investment income, with domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices at 70,000 yuan per ton, down 32% year-on-year. The gross profit from lithium business was 400 million yuan, down 48% year-on-year [1]. - Financial expenses increased to 720 million yuan, a year-on-year rise of 23%, primarily due to increased borrowings, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.6%, up 12.23 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The lithium battery business showed growth, achieving a gross profit of 420 million yuan, up 57.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.17%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points year-on-year. This growth supported overall performance [1]. Development Trends - The integration of Argentine salt lake projects is progressing, with the company planning to develop the Pozuelos-PastoesGrandes salt lake basin through a joint venture with LAR, holding 67% and 33% stakes respectively [3]. - The Goulamina lithium mine in Mali is expected to be a significant source of hard rock lithium, with the first phase producing 506,000 tons of concentrate annually now in operation [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with the current stock price corresponding to a 2026 P/E of 41.0 times for A-shares and 29.2 times for H-shares. The target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 8% and 29% to 41.60 yuan and 32.16 HKD, respectively, indicating an upside potential of 6% and 4% compared to current prices [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 79,180 yuan, down 3,820 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 23,175 lots, down 7,397 lots; and its open interest was 51,084 lots, down 5,986 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 78,960 yuan, down 3,800 yuan; its trading volume was 932,675 lots, up 154,848 lots; and its open interest was 362,254 lots, down 27,815 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 24,990 lots, up 670 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,720 yuan, up 2,520 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 220 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 934 dollars, down 14 dollars; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,055 yuan, down 55 yuan [2]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,900 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan, down 1,300 yuan [2]. - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,150 yuan, down 265 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,460 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 83,925 yuan/ton, down 1,299 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,900 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [3]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. (300919.SZ) is involved in salt - lake lithium mines in Argentina through holding and participating in projects. It controls over 10 million tons of LCE, and the value of its lithium resources has increased with the rising lithium carbonate price [4].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. held a performance briefing on August 22, attracting participation from 145 institutions, including Citigroup and Huaxi Securities, to discuss the company's operational performance and business progress for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Ganfeng Lithium achieved operating revenue of 8.376 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -531 million yuan, and operating cash flow of 300 million yuan [2] Group 2: Business Segment Progress - Upstream lithium resources: The Mariana lithium salt lake project in Argentina produced its first batch of lithium chloride; the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium salt lake project is operating smoothly and is expected to meet annual targets; the Goulamina spodumene project in Mali is in normal operation with shipments ongoing [3] - Lithium salt segment: The Sichuan Ganfeng lithium salt project completed production line debugging, steadily releasing capacity; the first phase of the Qinghai Ganfeng project is in trial production [3] - Lithium battery segment: The business structure has been optimized, significantly improving profitability; solid-state battery business has achieved integrated upstream and downstream layout with commercial capabilities [3] Group 3: Project Planning and Market Response - Mali project impact: Despite complex political situations, the Goulamina project has not faced direct disruptions, with security upgrades and local support being pursued [4] - Cost reduction and planning: Significant cost reduction effects from the Cauchari-Olaroz project; the Mt Marion lithium mine in Australia is expected to enhance yield and reduce costs through ore selection technology [4] - Solid-state battery capacity: The company is developing lithium sulfide and sulfide electrolyte materials, with lithium sulfide products already certified by customers [4]

Group 1 - The company, Yongxing Materials, currently has a lithium battery production capacity of 30,000 tons per year, with 10,000 tons undergoing a green and intelligent upgrading project [2] - The upgrading project is progressing as planned and is expected to be operational on schedule by the end of 2025 [2] - The company has been asked about the expiration of its safety production license, indicating ongoing regulatory considerations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a recent drop exceeding 4%, following a peak above 90,000 yuan/ton, indicating a volatile market influenced by supply and demand uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Lithium carbonate prices surged due to rumors of mine shutdowns, reaching over 80,000 yuan/ton by August 11, and further climbing to over 90,000 yuan/ton by August 18 [2]. - Following the peak, prices began to decline sharply, with the main contract hitting the limit down on August 20 and falling below 80,000 yuan/ton by August 22 [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market's supply dynamics have shifted as companies like Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co. resumed production, and overseas operations, such as Albemarle's La Negra plant, have also restarted, increasing supply amid high prices [2]. - Analysts predict that the current supply reduction is temporary, with expectations of oversupply in the lithium market over the next two years, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the lithium futures market will experience two phases in the second half of the year: a potential price increase in Q3 due to improved macro sentiment and a decline in Q4 as production ramps up [3]. - It is recommended to utilize options to hedge against market volatility, given the high uncertainty in news and market conditions [4].

| 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 83000.00 | 81040.00 | 73480.00 | 1,960.00 | w | | 收盘价 连一合约 | 82960.00 | 81000.00 | 85140.00 | 1,960.00 | ( 1 | | 连二合约 收盘价 连三合约 收盘价 | 82180.00 82180.00 | 80880.00 80880.00 | 85300.00 85300.00 | 1,300.00 1,300.00 | | | 收盘价 | 82760.00 | 80980.00 | 85300.00 | 1,780.00 | ( | | 碳酸锂期货 成交量(手) | 777827.00 | 838879.00 | 1060127.00 | -61,052.00 | | | 活跃合约 | | | | | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) | 390069.00 | 395102 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices in China experienced significant volatility this week, driven by expectations of increased lithium supply following the resumption of production by Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary Yichun Silver Lithium [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate futures contracts fell sharply, with the main contract price dropping to 80,980 RMB per ton, a decrease of 8% [2]. - Just two days prior, on August 18, the contract price had reached a one-year high of 90,100 RMB per ton [3]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The market's rapid response was influenced by a shift in supply expectations, particularly after the announcement of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's resumption of production and the confirmation of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd.'s lithium extraction project expected to begin trial production in September [5]. - Yichun Silver Lithium is a key part of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's integrated supply chain, primarily engaged in lithium ore processing, with an expected initial monthly output of approximately 300 tons, gradually increasing to a maximum of 1,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Supply - The resumption of production by individual companies, while limited in its overall impact on supply-demand dynamics, has been interpreted by the market as a stabilization of domestic lithium resource supply [5]. - Data from Chinese customs indicated that lithium spodumene imports reached 750,000 tons in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of over 30%, marking a historical high for monthly imports [6]. Group 4: International Mining Activity - Significant increases in imports from Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa suggest ample overseas mineral supply [7]. - Major overseas mining companies have also issued production guidance indicating increases, with Australia's Greenbushes project expected to see a 3% to 11% increase in production for the 2026 fiscal year, and Pilbara's project expected to increase by 8% to 15% [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain in a capacity release cycle, with both ore and salt lake supplies anticipated to stay high [8]. - Demand remains robust, with an increase in orders for lithium iron phosphate batteries and a rise in production schedules for ternary batteries due to growing downstream demand [8]. - However, the pressure from lithium carbonate inventory will influence the supply-demand dynamics alongside the sustainability of actual demand recovery [9].