Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the reports Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Spread Report - **Stock Index Futures** - IC期现价差最新值为 -75.56，较前一日变化 17.40，历史 1 年分位数 17.60%，全历史分位数 7.00% [1] - IM期现价差最新值为 -80.01，较前一日变化 12.73，历史 1 年分位数 90.00%，全历史分位数 18.00% [1] - IF跨期价差、IH跨期价差、IN跨期价差等各合约价差有不同程度变化及分位数情况 [1] - 跨品种比值如 IC/IF 为 1.5353，较前一日变化 0.0008，历史 1 年分位数 99.50%，全历史分位数 82.90% 等 [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - TS基差最新值为 1.1662，较前一日变化 0.0396，上市以来百分位数 9.10% [2] - TF基差最新值为 1.4695，较前一日变化 0.0230，上市以来百分位数 36.90% [2] - TL基差最新值为 2.5075，较前一日变化 0.0575，上市以来百分位数 86.00% [2] - 各品种跨期价差和跨品种价差有不同程度变化及分位数情况 [2] Precious Metals Report - **Domestic Futures** - AU2510合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 776.04 元/克，较前一日跌 3.44 元，跌幅 0.44% [5] - AG2510合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 9187 元/千克，较前一日跌 23 元，跌幅 0.25% [5] - **Foreign Futures** - COMEX黄金主力合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 3393.70，较前一日跌 64.50，跌幅 1.87% [5] - COMEX白银主力合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 37.65 美元/盎司，较前一日跌 0.86，跌幅 2.25% [5] - **Spot Prices** - 伦敦金 8 月 12 日价格 3347.64，较前一日涨 5.89，涨幅 0.18% [5] - 伦敦银 8 月 12 日价格 37.89 美元/盎司，较前一日涨 0.31，涨幅 0.81% [5] - **Basis** - 黄金 TD - 沪金主力现值 -2.87，较前值涨 0.75，历史 1 年分位数 29.70% [5] - 白银 TD - 沪银主力现值 -24，较前值涨 13，历史 1 年分位数 47.70% [5] - **Price Ratios** - COMEX 金/银现值 90.15，较前一日涨 0.35，涨幅 0.39% [5] - 上期所金/银现值 84.47，较前一日跌 0.16，跌幅 0.19% [5] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates** - 10 年期美债收益率现值 4.29，较前值涨 0.02，涨幅 0.5% [5] - 2 年期美债收益率现值 3.72，较前值跌 0.04，跌幅 1.1% [5] - 美元指数现值 98.07，较前值跌 0.43 [5] - 离岸人民币汇率现值 7.1856，较前值跌 0.0107，跌幅 0.44% [5] - **Inventory and Positions** - 上期所黄金库存现值 36045 千克，较前值无变化 [5] - 上期所白银库存现值 1151209，较前值跌 753，跌幅 0.07% [5] - COMEX 黄金库存现值 38617003，较前值无变化 [5] - COMEX 白银库存现值 507041876，较前值涨 600095，涨幅 0.12% [5] Container Shipping Report - **Spot Quotes** - MAERSK马士基 8 月 13 日上海 - 欧洲未来 6 周运价参考 2651 美元/FEU，较前一日涨 152，涨幅 6.08% [6] - CMA 达飞 8 月 13 日运价 3199，较前一日涨 9，涨幅 0.28% [6] - MSC 地中海 8 月 13 日运价 2860，较前一日涨 15，涨幅 0.53% [6] - **Container Shipping Index** - SCFIS (欧洲航线) 8 月 11 日结算价指数 2235.48，较 8 月 4 日跌 62.4，跌幅 2.71% [6] - SCFIS (美西航线) 8 月 11 日结算价指数 1082.14，较 8 月 4 日跌 48.0，跌幅 4.25% [6] - SCFI 综合指数 8 月 8 日 1489.68，较 8 月 1 日跌 61.1，跌幅 3.94% [6] - **Futures Prices and Basis** - EC2602 合约 8 月 12 日价格 1528.0，较前一日涨 10.9，涨幅 0.72% [6] - EC2604 合约 8 月 12 日价格 1350.0，较前一日涨 5.1，涨幅 0.38% [6] - 主力合约 EC2508 8 月 12 日价格 2082.0，较前一日涨 2.0，涨幅 0.10% [6] - 基差(主力) 8 月 12 日 753.4，较前一日跌 47.4，跌幅 5.92% [6] - **Fundamental Data** - 全球集装箱运力供给 8 月 13 日 3282.66 万 TEU，较前一日无变化 [6] - 上海港口准班率 7 月 32.58，较上月跌 1.99，跌幅 5.76% [6] - 上海港口挂靠情况 7 月 310.00 个，较上月跌 14.00，跌幅 4.32% [6] - 月度出口金额 7 月 3217.80 亿美元，较上月跌 34.53，跌幅 1.06% [6] Trading Calendar Report - **Overseas Data/Information** - At 0:00, EIA will release the monthly short - term energy outlook report [7] - At 4:30, the API crude oil inventory (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 8 in the US will be announced [7] - At 22:30, the EIA crude oil inventory (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 8 in the US will be announced [7] - **Domestic Data/Information** - In the evening, the weekly production and sales survey of 523 mines by the Steel Union for coking coal will be carried out [7] - At 14:30, Longzhong Information will release the commercial crude oil inventory (in 10,000 tons) at Chinese ports [7] - In the evening, the production - sales ratio of glass and the inventory at the delivery warehouse of soda ash will be concerned [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season in the spot market has appeared, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased decline. The market lacks a coordinated price - supporting atmosphere, and the spot price of freight has likely reached its peak. Freight rates are expected to enter a downward channel in August. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to grasp the downward trend and short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the peak season has passed. This week, the SCFIS has further declined with an increased decline. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes have been decreasing. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. Considering the large impact on foreign trade and the relatively high level of运力 supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year [8] - Operation Suggestion: The main 10 - contract has a deep discount. The market may have a game on the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. Most route market freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the comprehensive index. On August 8th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9] - Trade Data: In the first 7 months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% year - on - year increase, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. However, future China - EU trade may face greater competition pressure [9] - Route Freight Rates: On August 8th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period. The market situation of the Mediterranean route was basically the same as that of the European route, with a slight decline in the spot booking price [10] - International Incidents: The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and announced "sanctions" on 64 shipping companies. The international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Index | August 11, 2025 | August 4, 2025 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.7% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.2% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides data on the trading of multiple container shipping European line futures contracts on August 11, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present the latest values, changes compared to the previous day, historical percentile rankings of various futures spreads, prices, and related economic indicators across different sectors including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and provide a trading calendar with relevant data and information sources [1][2][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: IC, IM, IF, and IH have different current - spot price spreads and inter - period price spreads. For example, the IC current - spot price spread is - 96.50, up 14.64 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 20% and an all - time percentile of 3.3096 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and IC/IF are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.5405, up 0.0002 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.10% and an all - time percentile of 58.70% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: Different types of treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) have their respective basis values, Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and changes compared to the previous day, as well as historical percentile rankings since listing. For example, the TS basis is 1.2966, up 0.0153 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 12.40% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: There are inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads for different treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices of precious metals (gold and silver) are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 787.80 yuan/gram on August 8, up 2.78 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values between spot and futures, and price ratios between different precious metals are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [6]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Information on interest rates (such as 10 - year US Treasury bond yield), exchange rates (such as the US dollar index), inventory (such as Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory), and positions (such as SPDR Gold ETF holdings) is provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [6]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Spot freight rates from Shanghai to Europe for different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA CGM, etc.) are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe freight rate was 2878 US dollars/FEU on August 11, up 88 US dollars or 3.19% from the previous day [8]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS, SCFI) for different routes (European, US West, US East) are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping contracts (EC2602, EC2510, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), foreign trade indicators (monthly export amount), and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI) are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [8]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events from overseas, such as the MPOB palm oil monthly report, Brazilian secex weekly report, and USDA export inspection and crop growth data in the US, are listed [9]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, including global manganese ore shipping volume, iron ore shipping and arrival data, and SMM electrolytic copper social inventory, are provided [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. Group 3: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2508 closed at 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change, volume of 273, and an open interest of 3432 with a change of - 147; EC2510 closed at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change, volume of 56447, and an open interest of 56602 with a change of 3006; EC2512 closed at 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change, volume of 6068, and an open interest of 10276 with a change of 516; EC2602 closed at 1530.4 with a 1.66% change, volume of 1105, and an open interest of 4135 with a change of - 44; EC2604 closed at 1353.0 with a 0.46% change, volume of 1290, and an open interest of 5403 with a change of 34; EC2606 closed at 1490.5 with a 0.17% change, volume of 142, and an open interest of 800 with a change of - 8 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 compared to the previous week; EC2510 - 2512 was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 compared to the previous week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Spot Freight Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) on August 4th was 2297.86 dollars/TEU with a - 0.81% change from the previous period and - 3.50% from the period before; on August 8th, it was 1961 dollars/TEU with a - 4.39% change from the previous period and - 1.87% from the period before [2]. - The CCFI on August 8th was 1799.05 with a 0.53% change from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on August 8th was 1257.71 with an - 8.37% change from the previous period [2]. Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quote in week33 was about 3150 dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the futures). In week34, shipping companies' quotes dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance quoted 2700 dollars, MSK 2600 dollars, and the OA Alliance 2900 - 3000 dollars [3]. Group 6: Shipping Capacity Information - In week33 of August, the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK performing well, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a suspension in week39. The shipping capacity decreased slightly but remained high. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2]. Group 7: Related News - On August 8th, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five principles" for a cease - fire. On August 9th, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement for the Gaza Strip [4].

Core Viewpoint - SeaLand International Holdings Limited has established itself as a leading container shipping company in Asia over the past 30 years, with a strong focus on integrated logistics networks and a significant fleet of container ships [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company was founded over 30 years ago and is currently a leader in the container shipping sector in Asia [1]. - The controlling shareholder is founder Yang Shaopeng, who, along with his family trust, holds 41.25% of the company's shares [1]. - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 114 container ships, with 100 owned vessels, accounting for approximately 88% of its fleet [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $3.06 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.03 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 25.9% and 93.5%, respectively [1]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 24.3%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s container throughput reached 3.57 million TEUs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with an average freight rate of $721 per TEU, up 15.7% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand structure in the Asian container shipping market is improving, supported by high trade volumes among major developed economies and expanding trade between China and ASEAN [1]. - The total import and export volume between China and ASEAN is expected to grow by 8.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with container shipping volume to Southeast Asia increasing by 19.7% [1]. Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The management team has an average of over 28 years of experience in the shipping industry, enabling the company to navigate through cycles effectively [2]. - The company focuses on differentiated services through an integrated logistics network in the Asian region [2]. - The company has a low operating cost structure, with a calculated cost per container of $463 per TEU in 2024, down 8.4% year-on-year [2]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is projected to generate revenues of $3.285 billion, $3.353 billion, and $3.406 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.4%, 2.1%, and 1.6%, respectively [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $1.122 billion, $1.072 billion, and $1.011 billion over the same period, with year-on-year changes of 9.1%, -4.4%, and -5.7% [2]. - The company has a strong track record of shareholder returns, with cumulative dividends of HKD 38.9 billion from 2010 to 2024, averaging a payout ratio of 78% [2].

Report Overview - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates has likely passed. This week, the SCFIS has further dropped below 2300 points, marking four consecutive weeks of decline. Airlines are lowering their August quotes, indicating that the spot freight rate has reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Given the limited improvement in demand and relatively high supply during the off - season, this year's freight rates may be even weaker during the off - season. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and long - short spread trading opportunities between December and October contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates has appeared. This week, the SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines are lowering their August quotes, and the freight rates are showing a weekly decline. The freight rate spot has likely reached its peak and is expected to decline in August. For example, many airlines have reduced their quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. The overall quotes for large containers are concentrated between $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 compared to the end of July. Historically, the peak of the peak season usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rates in late August generally return to the level of early July. Due to the limited improvement in demand and relatively high supply during the off - season, this year's freight rates may be even weaker during the off - season. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spread trading opportunities between December and October contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Market Conditions from July 28 to August 1**: The China export container shipping market was generally stable, but the transport demand was weak. The comprehensive index declined slightly. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly due to export growth. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 1 was 1550.74 points, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The EU and the US reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase its purchase of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks in Sweden, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU respectively, decreasing by 2.2% and 7.5% from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port on July 21, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - **SCFIS**: From July 28 to August 4, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a 0.8% decrease; the SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a 12.0% decrease [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes** - **Contract Data**: On August 7, different contracts of container shipping European routes futures showed different trends in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1420.4, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous settlement price, and a trading volume of 26142 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

集运早报 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布。 EC期货合约价格走势 EC远期曲线 2600 2400 2400 2200 ว วดด 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 现货价格 2508 2510 25 12 2602 2606 -2508 2025 /7/2 2025 /7/15 2025/8/5 2025/7/25 | | | | | | Company of the county of | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究用心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/7 | | | इस्ते | | 昨日收盘份 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持合变动 | | | EC2508 | | 2071.3 | -0.84 | 226.6 | | 418 | 3700 | -246 | | | EC2510 | | 1420.1 | 0.50 | 877 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has declined for four consecutive weeks. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, indicating a lack of willingness to support prices. Considering the large impact of tariffs on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, with large - container quotes concentrated at $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 from the end of July. The freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Historically, the peak usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rate in late August generally returns to the early - July level. Attention should be paid to the speed of freight rate decline and tariff negotiations. Due to the impact of tariffs on foreign trade and high shipping capacity supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season. Consider short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 28 to August 1, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with weakening demand and a slight decline in the composite index. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by exports. On August 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The EU and the US reached a tariff agreement with a 15% tariff rate. The EU will increase purchases of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The shipping demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, down 1.9% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: In June, US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks, and the suspension of 24% of US tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU, down 2.2% and 7.5% respectively from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing $750 billion of US energy products and US military equipment [10]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From August 4 to July 28, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a decline of 0.8%. The SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a decline of 12.0% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The trading data of multiple contracts on August 6 are provided, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Various charts are provided to show the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, and shipping - related price trends [13][17][19]