Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 关税豁免期临近到期，关注贸易格局演变 ——6 月海外月度观察 油价：6 月，国际原油先受中美元首通话提振油需前景，后受中东局势引发 供给担忧双重因素带动下强势上涨至 75.60 美元/桶，随后中东局势缓和，油 价回落至 64.92 美元/桶。 美国就业市场超预期疲软；金融市场流动性紧缩。 债券研究 经济方面，全球制造业景气度收缩，服务业保持高景气度。贸易方面，波罗 的海干散货指数先升后降，5 月前 20 日韩国出口同比跌幅收缩至-2.5%。货 币政策方面，关税政策加剧经济前景的不确定性，主要央行保持谨慎态度。 财政政策方面，德国政府内阁批准 2025 年财政预算草案和 2026 年财政预 算框架。 ❖ 发达经济体：关税冲击经济前景，通胀继续降温 美国经济景气度回落，制造业和服务业景气度均处于收缩区间；劳动力市场 温和走弱，时薪增速超预期；通胀继续降温，关税影响暂未体现；零售销售 继续走弱，消费者支出放缓；房贷利率居高不下以及持续上涨的房价加剧居 民购房负担。英国、日本制造业和服务业景气度分化，欧元区增长乏力。通 胀方面，欧元区、英国通胀降温，日本通胀水平继续处于政策目标上 ...

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, which was below expectations and undermined confidence in sustained economic growth [1][3] - The contraction is attributed to complex structural issues within the economy, with tariff policies significantly impacting both imports and exports [1][5] Trade Dynamics - The US saw an import growth adjustment to 37.9% and export growth adjusted to 0.4%, with net imports dragging down GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - The reliance on imports has increased, exacerbating the trade deficit and highlighting the imbalance in the economic structure [3][6] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, contributed only approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first quarter, indicating a decline in consumer purchasing power [3][5] - Consumer confidence has weakened, particularly in an uncertain economic environment, which has become a significant factor in hindering economic growth [3][8] Tariff Policy Impact - The "America First" trade policy implemented by the Trump administration aimed to protect domestic manufacturing but resulted in increased prices for imported goods, raising production costs for US businesses [5][6] - This policy has inadvertently shifted the burden onto consumers, leading to a slowdown in overall economic growth [5][8] Global Economic Uncertainty - The interconnectedness of the US economy with global markets means that uncertainties in other major economies, such as China and the EU, directly affect US export growth [6][8] - The slowdown in global economic growth has led many US companies to reduce investment and production plans, further contributing to domestic economic contraction [6][8] Structural Issues - The current economic challenges reflect long-term structural problems, with the US economy's dependence on external markets making it vulnerable to global uncertainties [8] - Addressing these structural issues, including reducing reliance on imports and adjusting trade strategies, is crucial for sustainable economic growth in the future [8]

眼下距离7月9日这一美国政府暂停征收"对等关税"90天的截止期限仅剩十来天，欧盟与美国的关税谈判仍进展殊微。 而面对美国的咄咄逼人，欧盟再次亮明了态度。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的办公室主任比约恩·塞伯特日前强调，在最后期限到来之前，欧盟内部须统一立场，随时准备反制美国的关税措施。如果欧盟想 达成一项"好协议"，就必须在美国挑起的贸易战中发出"可信的威胁"。 △英国《金融时报》报道截图 "欧盟正在为各种可能性做准备" 塞伯特是在加拿大七国集团（G7）峰会结束后不久，对欧盟各国驻布鲁塞尔大使做出上述提醒的。 欧盟原指望能借这次会议之机与美国总统特朗普就关税问题当面沟通，但特朗普提前离场回国，令欧盟大为失望。 不仅如此，特朗普还在回国途中向欧盟发出新的威胁：要么向美方提出一个"合理的协议"，要么"按我们的要求支付更高关税"。 △法新社报道截图 作为美国最大的贸易伙伴之一，欧盟目前被美方加征的关税除了"对等关税"缓征期间10%的"基准关税"外，还有25%的汽车关税和50%的钢铝关税。 欧盟一直希望通过谈判与美国达成一份"双赢"的新贸易协议，但在谈判过程中，美国政府的反复无常却让欧盟越来越无所适从： 就在美欧同意"加快 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May, China's fixed - asset investment growth was lower than market expectations, and the growth rates of infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate investment were all lower than those in April. Consumption growth in May was significantly better than market expectations, but it may not be sustainable. Industrial production maintained stable and rapid growth in May. China's exports showed resilience in May. The Chinese economy is expected to operate steadily in the second quarter. There is uncertainty in global economic and trade relations, which may pose challenges to China's economic growth in the third quarter [83]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0% and the 4.0% growth from January to April. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42% year - on - year from January to May, down from 10.85% in January - April. Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to May, down from 5.8% in January - April. Manufacturing investment increased by 8.5% year - on - year from January to May, in line with market expectations but lower than the 8.8% growth in January - April. National real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year from January to May, more than the 10.3% decline in January - April [4]. - From January to May, equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 17.3% year - on - year, with a contribution rate of 63.6% to the growth of total investment and driving total investment growth by 2.3 percentage points [6]. 2. Real Estate - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [9]. - In May, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [12]. - From June 1 - 25, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 260,000 square meters, a 6% year - on - year decrease [14]. - The national second - hand housing price is in a bottom - grinding state, and the decline rate this year is slower than last year [16]. 3. Consumption - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, higher than the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year [19]. - In May, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, and other categories had relatively large year - on - year increases. The retail sales of basic necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum [21]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.94% month - on - month. The consumer goods replacement policy and the "618" e - commerce promotion activities accelerated the release of consumption demand. A total of 162 billion yuan of central funds have been allocated in the first and second quarters this year, and 138 billion yuan will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [24]. - From January to May, the total service retail sales increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The retail sales of tourism consulting and leasing services, cultural and recreational services showed good growth, and catering revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year [26]. 4. Exports and Imports - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [32]. - In May, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 14.84% year - on - year, exports to the EU increased by 12.02% year - on - year, and exports to the US decreased by 34.52% year - on - year [35]. - In May, China's exports to regions other than the top five export destinations continued to grow at a high rate, with a year - on - year increase of 11.69% [38]. 5. Industrial Production - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 5.7% [41]. - In May, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.6% year - on - year [43]. - In May, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a 0.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [46]. 6. Employment - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [49]. - In May, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 14.9%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [52]. 7. Prices - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The year - on - month decline in CPI was mainly affected by the decrease in energy prices [54][57]. - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline continuing for three consecutive months [67][68]. 8. Social Financing and Credit - In May, the scale of social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [72]. - In May, the RMB loans in the credit scope increased by 620 billion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 800 billion yuan [74]. - At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, a 7.9% year - on - year increase, and the balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [76]. - At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year - on - year [79].

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year, outperforming exports and investments [1] - The industrial added value and total goods exports both showed a slowdown in growth, indicating resilience but a deceleration trend [1][5] - The overall economic growth momentum has improved, with actual GDP growth rebounding from 4.6% in Q3 of last year to 5.4% in Q1 of this year [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - The strong consumer growth is driven by several factors, including improved income expectations and reduced mortgage pressure due to lower interest rates [2] - The "Two New" policies are still in a concentrated release phase, contributing to the growth in retail sales of appliances and communication equipment [2][3] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support consumption, with over 160 billion yuan already disbursed, indicating ongoing policy support [3] Group 3: Industrial Sector Analysis - The industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, reflecting a resilient but slowing trend [5] - The slowdown in exports, influenced by global tariff policies and a decline in the construction sector, has affected industrial production schedules [5][7] - High-tech manufacturing sectors continue to show growth, supported by China's manufacturing scale and efficiency advantages [6] Group 4: Export Market Dynamics - Despite a slowdown, exports remain resilient, with significant growth in exports to the EU (12.0%) and Africa (33.3%) in May [8] - The diversification of export markets has mitigated the impact of reduced exports to the US, which now accounts for only 9.1% of total exports [8] - High-end manufacturing products like automobiles and integrated circuits are maintaining strong export growth, contributing to overall export resilience [8] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The export-manufacturing sector is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, with construction and service sectors anticipated to provide some counterbalance [7][10] - The actual GDP growth rate may slightly decline in the second half but is still projected to achieve around 5% for the year [11] - Policies aimed at enhancing nominal GDP growth and addressing supply-demand imbalances are likely to be prioritized moving forward [11][12]

Group 1 - China's economy remains a crucial engine for global economic growth despite dynamic changes and external complexities [1] - Experts at the World Economic Forum discussed how China can respond to macroeconomic headwinds and transition to a more resilient, consumption-driven, and innovation-led economy [1] - Pragmatism is still dominant in China's approach, with deep interdependence in trade despite perceptions of decoupling [1] Group 2 - Technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), is a core driver shaping China's growth trajectory [2] - New open models and digital tools are promoting cost-effective innovations based on China's unique advantages in advanced R&D, large-scale production, and integrated supply chains [2] - The role of consumption in China's economic growth is increasing, with consumers becoming more discerning and seeking quality alternatives without increasing spending [2] Group 3 - Transitioning from an investment and export-driven model to one focused on domestic demand and services is essential for China's economic future [2] - Increasing domestic consumption requires measures to expand employment opportunities and enhance social spending in healthcare and education [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption" marks a shift in policy focus from goods consumption to service consumption, emphasizing the cultivation of supply rather than merely stimulating demand [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Opinions" outline 19 specific measures across six areas to enhance consumer capacity, cultivate demand, and improve the specialized service capabilities of financial institutions [1] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area, mentioned 13 times in the document, while goods consumption is referenced only twice [1] Group 2: Economic Context - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, showing a 2.6 percentage point improvement from December of the previous year, while service sector growth was more subdued at 6.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from December [1] - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of the old-for-new consumption policy will weaken, indicating limited growth potential for goods consumption, whereas service consumption still holds significant potential [2] Group 3: Supply-Side Focus - The "Opinions" emphasize the importance of optimizing supply alongside expanding demand, aiming for a virtuous cycle in production, distribution, and consumption [2] - Future policies may focus on increasing financing support for consumer enterprises and investing in service consumption infrastructure, including facilities for culture, sports, healthcare, and community services [3] Group 4: Consumer Confidence - The primary constraint on consumer growth is not financial access but rather macroeconomic pressures and cautious consumer sentiment regarding employment and income [4] - The "Opinions" propose measures to support employment and income growth, enhance consumer confidence, and improve financial services for small and micro enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that U.S. business activity has slightly slowed down in June due to significant tariffs imposed by the White House on imported goods, leading to increased costs and prices, which may accelerate inflation in the second half of the year [1] - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. Composite PMI output index fell from 53.0 in May to 52.8 in June, suggesting a slowdown in economic output from the private sector [1] - The Services PMI preliminary value decreased from 53.7 in May to 53.1, and the new orders index dropped from 53.0 to 52.3, indicating weakened market demand growth [1] Group 2 - Inflationary pressures have intensified, with manufacturers' input cost pressures rising sharply, as the price index surged to 70.0, the highest since July 2022, up from 64.6 in May [1] - Nearly two-thirds of manufacturers reported rising costs attributed to tariffs, which are being passed on to consumers, keeping the price indicators for goods and services elevated [1] - The manufacturers' price index jumped from 59.7 in May to 64.5, marking the highest level since July 2022 [1] Group 3 - Economists widely expect U.S. inflation rates to soar starting in June, with tariff policy uncertainties exacerbating the risks of rising inflation and sluggish economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation [2] - The rise in inflation expectations has led the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate at 4.25%-4.50% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that future inflation is expected to be "notable" [2]