| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高套保节后合约 | | ◆玉米： | 谨慎追高，等 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite the large scale of Chinese steel companies, their profit margins remain weak, with significant revenue but low net profits per ton of steel produced [2][3][4] - In 2024, major Chinese steel companies reported revenues and net profits as follows: Baowu Group with 322.1 billion yuan and 7.362 billion yuan; CITIC Special Steel with 109.2 billion yuan and 5.126 billion yuan; Nanjing Steel with 61.8 billion yuan and 2.261 billion yuan; and Huazhong Steel with 14.46 billion yuan and 2.032 billion yuan, totaling over 16.7 billion yuan in net profit [2] - The article emphasizes that the product structure of Chinese steel, heavily reliant on low-margin ordinary products like rebar and wire rods, leads to lower profitability compared to Japanese steel companies that focus on high-end products [3][4] Group 2 - Japanese steel companies, such as Nippon Steel, have shifted their focus to high-value products, allowing them to sell steel at significantly higher prices, averaging over 1,500 USD per ton compared to China's 755 USD per ton [4][6] - The article notes that while Chinese companies are making efforts to develop high-end products, their overall proportion of high-end offerings still lags behind that of Japanese competitors, which impacts their profitability [8][9] - Strategic moves by Japanese companies, such as Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel for 14.1 billion USD, are aimed at securing a stable market and capitalizing on low-carbon steel production advantages [11] Group 3 - Chinese steel companies are also taking steps towards modernization and sustainability, with projects like Baowu's hydrogen metallurgy and Nanjing Steel's focus on raw material stability, indicating a shift towards lower carbon emissions [13] - The article suggests that the future competitive landscape will be defined by low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing, with the potential for Chinese companies to leverage their scale and market advantages if they can effectively transition to higher-margin products [15] - The current disparity in profitability is framed as a reflection of different development stages and paths, with Chinese companies needing to convert their production advantages into profits more effectively [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating operation" for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to oscillate. The positive news from the coking coal sector has not spread to other black - series products. Steel is operating in a context of weak supply and demand. With the approaching Spring Festival, the spot market is gradually on holiday, and the futures price is likely to oscillate [1][2] Summary by Related Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 credit market work conference, aiming to build a multi - level financial service system and support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [1] - In January 2026, the US ADP added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000, and the previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000, indicating a continuous slowdown in the US labor market at the beginning of 2026 [1] - The Eurozone's CPI in January 2026 increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021 [1] Industry Data - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), which was basically flat compared with December 2025 and increased by about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [1]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月05日 (原油) 夜间交易时段国际油价上涨。伊朗方面此前传出谈判取消的消息，随后伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐澄清 指出，伊朗与美国将于6日上午10时左右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行会谈。EIA数据显示，受冬季风暴 影响，上周美国原油库存超预期大幅下降，产量亦降至2024年11月以来最低水平。目前美伊谈判前 景仍存在较多不确定性,但整体冲突局势仍属可控,预计对原油价格的影响更多是阶段性与间歇性 的，难以形成趋势性转变。全球石油市场累积的压力依然显著。在多空因素交织的背景下，预计油 价将延续波动加剧的态势。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡,波动依然较大。美国经济数据喜忧参半,1月ADP就业人数增加2.2万人低于预期 的4.8万人，不过ISM非制造业PM153.8与此前公布的制造业PMI均体现经济韧性，市场关注的非农就 业将推迟到下周发布。短期资金博弈激烈，贵金属进入高位盘整阶段，暂时观望等待波动率下降。 国投期货研究院 【铜】 隔夜铜价高位震荡，沪铜减仓，市场关注潜在储备与春节前后国内供求变动。倾向正向价差强化能 形成天然仓单储备。更关注跨期反套。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The outlooks range from narrow or wide fluctuations to high-level oscillations, with some commodities showing potential for price increases or being affected by specific news events [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Outlook**: Expected to experience a tug-of-war between expectations and realities, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rose slightly, with the I2605 contract closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%. Spot prices for most imported and domestic ores increased slightly, while some remained unchanged. Basis and spread values showed minor fluctuations [4]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide fluctuations [2][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for RB2605 and HC2605 rose slightly, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with minor price adjustments in a few areas. Basis and spread values also showed minor fluctuations [7]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data for January 29th showed mixed trends. Some steel product prices and production volumes had year-on-year changes.必和必拓's first-half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted price cuts in some contracts. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts showed small increases. Spot prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had some adjustments, and various price spreads also changed [12]. - **News**: The proportion of coal-fired power generation fixed costs recovered through capacity tariffs will be increased. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices and procurement data were reported, and electricity prices in some regions changed. South Africa's manganese ore exports increased in December 2025 [11][13]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate at high levels [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for JM2605 and J2605 rose significantly, with trading volumes and open interest showing increases. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some price increases. Basis and spread values showed significant changes [14]. - **News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices decreased slightly. Coking coal online auctions had a 26% failure rate, with an average premium of 19.33 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [16]. Thermal Coal - **Outlook**: Indonesian production cut news has stimulated the import market, but domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed some fluctuations, with some prices remaining unchanged and others decreasing [19]. - **News**: The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity tariff mechanism. The North Port market sentiment was slightly stronger, but trading was light. Indonesian coal production cuts may support low-calorie coal prices, but the actual scale is yet to be confirmed [20]. Logs - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise slightly [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for log contracts showed small increases, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices for most log varieties remained stable, with some showing minor price increases [21]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [23]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 (slightly bullish) [24].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/05 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/29 | 3160 | 3280 | 3340 | 3240 | 3410 | 3350 | | 2026/01/30 | 3160 | 3240 | 3340 | 3240 | 3450 | 3310 | | 2026/02/02 | 3120 | 3210 | 3340 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/03 | 3120 | 3210 | 3370 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/04 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are stabilizing. The night trading prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils closed at 3,105 yuan and 3,271 yuan respectively. Supply and demand are both weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The off-season characteristics are obvious. Near the Spring Festival, the industry's supply and demand are weak, and the black market valuation is not high, close to the lower edge of the oscillation range, with limited further downward space. The price of coking coal strengthened due to the expected reduction in Indonesian coal production, and it is expected that the supply side of coking coal will affect the black market fluctuations in the near future. Steel prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and the upward elasticity depends on the supply-side policies of coking coal and market sentiment. Consider holding a long position in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. Short-term long positions in hot-rolled coils can be attempted at the 3,250 level [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract was weak, and the night trading continued to show weakness. The raw material side showed continuous differentiation. Affected by the Indonesian coal export restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, and the coking coal ratio strengthened. The supply side of iron ore had a slight increase in global shipments this period, and the shipment center decreased marginally but was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. On the demand side, SMM predicted that the impact of blast furnace maintenance would decline this week, and the molten iron output might increase slightly. After the festival, the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Currently, the supply and demand of finished products are still healthy, and the inventories of plates and cold-rolled products continue to decline. The terminal demand for steel exports has decreased, but it still has some resilience. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the festival. In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the high absolute inventory had a strong suppression on iron ore prices; while steel mill inventories increased significantly, and the port clearance volume increased month-on-month, and the replenishment was gradually realized. In the future, the demand for iron ore before the festival is weak, and the high inventory and high off-season supply continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Short positions can be attempted, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, on January 28, steel mills officially accepted the coke price increase and started implementing it on the 30th. The port price remained stable, and the coke market rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production slightly after New Year's Day, the molten iron output was low, and the steel price rebounded from a low level. In terms of inventory, both coking plants and steel mills accumulated inventory, and the port inventory decreased. The overall inventory increased slightly at a medium level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are in a slightly tight balance. In terms of strategy, the implementation of the price increase drives the market to rebound, but the implementation time of the price increase by mainstream coking enterprises lags, which suppresses the expectation of future price increases. There is still an expectation of loosening after the festival. The rebound of the coking coal futures price provides cost support. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, the auction price of Shanxi spot showed a downward trend, with the price of low-sulfur main coking coal in some coal mines decreasing. The Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate has decreased, and the winter storage replenishment is approaching the end. The thermal coal market has started to stabilize recently. On the supply side, after the New Year, the daily output of coal mines continued to recover, entering the resumption of production stage, with good shipments and accelerated inventory reduction. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the Mongolian coal quotation has rebounded and then declined. After New Year's Day, the customs clearance has quickly recovered to a relatively high level. On the demand side, the molten iron output of steel mills remained low, the coking profit declined, and the production declined. The downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival has limited growth. In terms of inventory, with the progress of downstream replenishment, coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports have all accumulated inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, and ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the short-term implementation of the coke price increase drives the market to rebound. India classifies coking coal as a strategic resource, and the Indonesian government's reduction of the annual coal production plan has led to coal mine production cuts, and overseas market disturbances have driven the rebound of coking coal. However, the domestic supply and demand are generally balanced. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron - The main silicon iron contract oscillated, and the contract was shifted to 05. The Indonesian coal export restrictions led to an expected increase in the cost of silicon iron. On the spot side, the price in the Ningxia production area weakened slightly yesterday, and the rest remained stable. Near the holiday, the transaction was cold. On the supply side, the silicon iron output increased slightly month-on-month, basically the same as the previous period, with limited changes, and the absolute value was still at a historically low level in the same period. The output in most production areas was basically the same as last week, and the output in Ningxia increased slightly. It is expected that the silicon iron output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of magnesium metal demand, the daily output is still at a relatively high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened compared with the previous period, and the price has declined; the silicon iron export is also affected by many factors, and the overall steel demand has weakened marginally. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke remained stable, and the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased slightly. Pay attention to the changes in the settlement electricity prices in other production areas. The cost side still has support. In the future, the short-term supply and demand contradiction of silicon iron is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the cost side has support. Pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,800 [7]. Manganese Silicon - The main manganese silicon contract oscillated, and the position was reduced before the festival. On the spot side, the downstream steel mills have basically completed the replenishment, and at the same time, the transportation has gradually stagnated, and the spot transaction is cold. Fundamentally, the manganese silicon supply has declined slightly, and the recent output has basically remained stable, with the manufacturer's operating rate increasing. The absolute output is at a historically low level. Affected by the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the output has steadily increased; the output in Ningxia has continued to decline; the southern region is affected by the power grid policy adjustment, and there is an expected significant increase in electricity prices in the future. Most manufacturers maintain production suspension, and the output in Guangxi continues to shrink. It is expected that the share of the southern manganese silicon production area will continue to shrink, and the manganese silicon output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remains high, and the pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the order level is relatively low, and the total inventory is moderately high. In terms of cost, the alloy manufacturers' manganese ore procurement is basically over, and the inventory replenishment is weak. The first-round quotation of the outer disk continues to rise, and the maintenance of some mines in Africa has a short-term impact on the supply. The cost support of manganese ore still exists. Affected by the Indonesian coal production restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, driving up the price of coke. Recently, this factor may have an impact on the manganese silicon price, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. Overall, manganese silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still an expectation of resumption of production after the festival, and the fundamentals lack driving force. In the short term, pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar increased by 12 yuan, 15 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot-rolled coils increased by 13 yuan, 20 yuan, and 23 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3,730 yuan/ton. - The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 3,236 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar decreased by 16 yuan to 3,170 yuan/ton. - The profit of rebar in East China decreased by 6 yuan to -30 yuan/ton, the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 16 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 6 yuan to 160 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot-rolled coils in East China decreased by 6 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, the profit of hot-rolled coils in North China decreased by 6 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coils in South China increased by 4 yuan to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. - The output of the five major steel products increased by 3.6 tons to 823.2 tons, an increase of 0.4%. - The rebar output increased by 0.3 tons to 199.8 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the electric furnace output decreased by 1.1 tons to 32.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2%, and the converter output increased by 1.4 tons to 167.6 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot-rolled coil output increased by 3.8 tons to 309.2 tons, an increase of 1.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.4 tons to 1,278.5 tons, an increase of 1.7%. - The rebar inventory increased by 23.4 tons to 475.5 tons, an increase of 5.2%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 tons to 355.6 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 3.6 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. - The demand for the five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons to 801.7 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The demand for rebar decreased by 9.1 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 1.5 tons to 311.4 tons, an increase of 0.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 4.4 yuan, 4.4 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%. - The 05 contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 0.4 yuan, 0.4 yuan, 0.3 yuan, and 0.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.4%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, a decrease of 2.9%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons to 2,484.7 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The global shipment volume increased by 116.3 tons to 3,094.6 tons, an increase of 3.9%. - The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11,964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume increased by 21.6 tons to 332.3 tons, an increase of 6.9%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.1 tons to 6,072.2 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.4 tons to 6,817.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons to 17,022.26 tons, an increase of 1.5%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons to 9,968.6 tons, an increase of 6.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.0 days to 27.0 days, an increase of 17.4% [3]. Coke Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,671 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 yuan to 1,745 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coke increased by 55 yuan to 1,770 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 48 yuan to 1,832 yuan/ton. - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 29 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coking coal increased by 42 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 36 yuan to 1,282 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons to 62.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. - The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 47.0 tons, an increase of 0.2% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 21.5 tons to 960.6 tons, an increase of 2.3%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.9 tons to 84.4 tons, an increase of 3.6%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 16.6 tons to 678.2 tons, an increase of 2.5%. - The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 198.1 tons, an increase of 1.0% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. Short - term declines are due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction of the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. For iron ore, the market is also in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to fall due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere [2][4] - Technically, the steel futures price is oscillating within a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton, and may face a direction choice. The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has fallen near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and may have some support [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with production and demand at a low level, and inventory rising from a low level [2] - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend to varying degrees. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.98 million tons, down 0.05% [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed later and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. Last week, the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills remained basically unchanged. Steel and molten iron production are at a seasonal low, with limited room for significant increase or decrease. Steel mill restocking is nearly complete, and the market focuses more on spring consumption demand [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments increased slightly, but are expected to continue to decline in the later stage due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia decreased by 2.29% week - on - week, while those from Brazil increased by 27.31% week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 1.53% week - on - week [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4] 3. Industry News - According to data from Zhaogang.com, as of the week ending February 4, the output of key steel products in the country was 397.41 million tons, a decrease of 32.69 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand was 338.1 million tons, a decrease of 60.6 million tons from the previous week [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report targets around 5% growth for 2026 [4][15] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][15] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][15] Group 3: Steel Industry Performance - On February 4, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 1.034 million tons, a 14% increase month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 12.6% [5][16] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points week-on-week and 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [5][16] - Total steel supply for the week was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week. Rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production rose by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons [5][16] Group 4: Rebar and Hot-Rolled Steel Market - Rebar production saw a slight increase, totaling 1.9983 million tons, with total inventory rising by 234,300 tons to 4.7553 million tons. Demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons, indicating a seasonal weakness in the market [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production also increased slightly to 3.0921 million tons, with total inventory decreasing by 22,000 tons, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed [7][18] Group 5: Price Strategies - Short-term price ranges for rebar and hot-rolled steel are set at 3,080-3,200 CNY/ton and 3,250-3,350 CNY/ton, respectively [8][19] Group 6: Alloy Market Overview - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with supply remaining low and production changes minimal. Demand from steel mills is stable, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production concerns [9][20]