航运板块 2026 年度策略：油散共振弹性可期，重点推荐 油轮板块 20260108 摘要 游轮需求端强劲，原油价格下行激发补库需求，预计 2026 年运价保持 高位。老船占比大，或大规模出清，制裁冲突可能短期推高运价。 几内亚西芒杜铁矿投产和铝土矿出口增长有望拉长干散货运距，俄乌、 巴以冲突后重建或提升干散货需求。关注海通发展、招商轮船。 集装箱航运需求受欧美需求不振和中美贸易摩擦影响，增量依赖东南亚 新兴市场。供给端持续宽松压制运价，警惕红海复航释放运力。 2025 年集装箱航运市场供需关系转松，运价显著回落。1-11 月 CCFI、SEFI 终值同比下跌 22%、36%。关注东南亚市场潜力，警惕红 海通航风险。 2025 年干散货市场受气候因素影响波动，运价中枢约为 2000 点。关 注几内亚铁矿发运，其运输距离远超澳大利亚，将显著增加运输需求。 干散货供给端无宽松预期，在手订单量低，老船占比高，新增供给困难。 预计 2026 年干散货市场首次进入供需平衡状态。 招商轮船主营超大型游轮 VLOC 及超大型矿砂船 VLOC，有望受益于油 散共振大周期。锦江航运向东南亚扩张，抢占区域先机。 Q&A 2026 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份) expects a net profit of 5.00 billion to 5.50 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 40.73% to 46.12% [1][2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 4.80 billion to 5.30 billion yuan, down 44.64% to 49.86% compared to the previous year [1][2] - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in the sales price of live pigs, which averaged 13.71 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 17.95% year-on-year, and a reduction in profits from the pig farming business [1][2] Group 2: IPO and Financing Activities - Gude Electric Materials (固德电材) has received approval for its IPO on the ChiNext board, aiming to raise 1.176 billion yuan for the production of new energy vehicle components and other projects [3] - Tongcheng New Materials (彤程新材) is planning to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, although details remain uncertain [4] - Huasheng Lithium Battery (华盛锂电) is also preparing to issue H-shares for listing in Hong Kong to enhance its international strategy and financing capabilities [5] - Quanxin Co., Ltd. (全信股份) plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 312 million yuan for various projects and working capital [6] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Beifang Changlong (北方长龙) intends to acquire 51% of Shunyi Technology (顺义科技) through a cash transaction, which will make Shunyi a subsidiary of Beifang Changlong [8] Group 4: Regulatory Compliance - Yingjixin Technology (英集芯) received a regulatory warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for inaccurate and incomplete information disclosure regarding its IPA1299 chip product [9] - Yihuilong Biotechnology (亚辉龙) was also warned by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for inconsistent statements in its announcements and insufficient risk disclosures [10] Group 5: Company Announcements - Jinli Permanent Magnet (金力永磁) forecasts a net profit of 660 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, an increase of 127% to 161% year-on-year, driven by increased R&D investment and market expansion [11] - Yinqu Technology (盈趣科技) anticipates a net profit of 540 million to 660 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 114.69% to 162.40% year-on-year, supported by revenue growth and increased R&D efforts [13] - Yongxi Electronics (甬矽电子) expects a net profit of 75 million to 100 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.08% to 50.77% due to growth in the semiconductor industry [15] - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船) projects a net profit of 6.0 billion to 6.6 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 17% to 29% year-on-year, benefiting from market recovery and non-recurring gains [16]

招商轮船（601872）1月8日发布2025年业绩预增公告，预计实现净利润为60.00亿元~66.00亿元，净利 润同比增长17.00%~29.00%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，招商轮船今日收于9.60元，上涨6.55%，日换手率为1.98%，成交额为15.40 亿元，近5日上涨6.90%。 资金面上，该股今日主力资金净流出1.27亿元，近5日资金净流出2.83亿元。最新（1月7日）两融余额 13.29亿元，其中，融资余额13.26亿元，环比前一交易日增长2.73%，近5日融资余额累计增长2.52%。 （数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月8日，招商轮船发布公告称，公司预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 人民币600，000万元—660，000万元，与上年同期相比，预计增加89，300万元—149，300万元，同比 增加17%—29%。 ...

证券日报网讯 1月8日，招商南油（601975）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司股价走势受宏观 经济环境、行业周期变化、市场资金偏好以及公司自身经营情况等多重因素的综合影响，具有不确定 性。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The inflection point of spot freight rates is gradually established, and some shipping companies have started to lower the spot quotes for the second half of January. The EC market as a whole has continued to weaken following the spot quotes [3]. - The high point of phased freight rates is gradually emerging. The demand for goods remains high but the growth rate is slowing down. The supply of shipping capacity has changed, and some shipping lines have announced suspension plans. Geopolitical factors may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1706 points, a decrease of 4.11% from the previous trading day. On December 26, 2025, the SCFI European line was quoted at $1690/TEU, a month-on-month increase of 10.24%. The latest SCFIS European line index was 1795.83 points, a month-on-month increase of 3%, slightly lower than expected [3]. - The high point of phased freight rates is gradually emerging. Different shipping companies have different pricing and price adjustment strategies. The demand for goods remains high but the growth rate is slowing down. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in January, February and March 2026 is expected to be 306,000, 252,700 and 288,400 TEUs respectively. CMA has announced a suspension plan for the Spring Festival, with three additional empty ships in February, with an average container capacity of 18,855 TEUs. Geopolitical factors may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see, and pay attention to the rate of price cuts by shipping companies [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread [6]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, 2026, the European natural gas inventory has dropped to the lowest level since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The current inventory is far below the five - year average, less than 60%, and the EU may face the risk of natural gas shortage [9]. - Zelensky said that the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [9]. 3. Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Different futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest and open interest change rates. For example, EC2602 closed at 1706.0, down 73.1 points or 4.11%, with a trading volume of 27,173.0 hands, a decrease of 37.68% [1]. - The spread between different futures contracts (such as EC04 - EC06, EC02 - EC08) has also changed [1]. Container Freight Rates - Different container freight rates (SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, etc.) have different prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European line was at 1795.83 points, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 46.99% [1]. Fuel Costs - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $56.43/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.54%. The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $59.94/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [1].

证券日报网讯 1月8日，招商南油在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，根据航运市场情况、公司资金状 况及整体发展战略，公司制定了中长期运力发展计划，将持续优化公司船队运力结构，满足客户的需 求，进一步提高公司在运输市场上的竞争力。公司严格遵守《证券法》及相关规定，所有法定信息披露 请以正式公告为准。E互动等平台旨在提供补充交流，其信息不能替代或构成公司公告。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is accelerating its transformation towards intelligence, and the company is actively embracing technological changes to enhance safety management through AI applications [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The company has integrated the Zhipu large model to gradually develop applications for risk identification in ship operational environments [1] - The company aims to explore the integration of artificial intelligence technology with the shipping industry to drive innovative development [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The shipping industry is undergoing a shift towards smart transformation, indicating a broader trend in the sector towards increased automation and intelligence [1] - The focus on enhancing safety management through intelligent solutions reflects the industry's commitment to improving operational standards and risk management [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has faced negative factors recently, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.17% and potentially testing the 26,000-point level [1] - The geopolitical tension surrounding Greenland's strategic importance and resource wealth is highlighted, with the U.S. considering various options to acquire it, which may lead to increased gold activity [1] Oil and Energy Sector - The U.S. has seized the "Bella 1" oil tanker for violating sanctions, indicating a strong stance on controlling Venezuelan oil sales, which will now be managed by the U.S. government [2] - Companies in the military and oil transportation sectors, such as AVIC (中航科工) and COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能), have seen stock increases of over 5% and 7% respectively due to these developments [2] Aerospace and Technology - Arrow Yuan Technology has begun construction on China's first offshore reusable rocket production base, marking a significant step in the aerospace sector [3] - The stock of Jin Da Co. (钧达股份) surged over 13% following this announcement, reflecting strong market interest in aerospace technology [3] Real Estate Sector - The Chinese government is signaling reforms in the housing provident fund system, which could positively impact the real estate market, with Vanke (万科) shares rising over 4% [4] - Other real estate companies like Greentown Management (绿城管理控股) and New World Development (新鸿基地产) also experienced stock increases of over 3% [4] Artificial Intelligence and Manufacturing - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a special action plan for "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing," aiming for significant advancements by 2027 [5] - Stocks of companies like Fudan (复旦) and Huahong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) have risen over 3% in response to this initiative [5] Animal Research Sector - The price of crab-eating macaques has surged to 140,000 yuan each, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market, benefiting companies like Zhaoyan New Drug (昭衍新药) with a stock increase of over 4% [6] Nuclear Fusion Technology - Recent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion technology have been reported, with significant advancements in plasma physics and the operation of the world's first commercial high-temperature superconducting tokamak [7] - Related companies such as Shanghai Electric (上海电气) and Dongfang Electric (东方电气) are positioned to benefit from these developments [8] Company Expansion and Performance - Tufu Group (阜丰集团) is accelerating its overseas business with the construction of its first overseas production base in Kazakhstan, reporting a revenue increase of 4.4% and a net profit increase of 72.1% [9] - The company is recognized as a global leader in bio-fermentation, with plans for significant production capacity expansion and cost advantages in its operations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船), expects a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by market recovery and non-recurring gains [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 600 million and RMB 660 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% to 29% [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by RMB 962 million to RMB 1,562 million, with a growth rate of 55% to 90% compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains is expected to be between RMB 505 million and RMB 565 million, showing a slight decline of 0.2% to an increase of 12% year-on-year [1] - In the fourth quarter, the net profit excluding non-recurring gains is projected to rise by RMB 377 million to RMB 977 million, with an increase of 22% to 57% year-on-year [1] Growth Drivers - The anticipated growth in 2025 is primarily attributed to the oil tanker fleet capitalizing on market recovery, with expected operating profit growth of 200% to 230% in the fourth quarter [1] - The company expects a substantial increase in non-recurring gains during the reporting period, driven by factors such as the disposal of old vessels yielding good returns and the acquisition of Antong Holdings shares, which will start being accounted for using the equity method in the fourth quarter [1] - The dry bulk and ro-ro (roll-on/roll-off) fleets are expected to experience a temporary decline in operating profits during the reporting period [1]