智通财经APP获悉，德康农牧(02419)涨超8%，截至发稿，涨8.12%，报93.2港元，成交额1.01亿港元。 国信证券指出，德康农牧是管理优秀的生猪标的，单位超额盈利持续验证。公司今年上半年生物资产公 允价值调整前净利润同比明显增长，生猪养殖成本稳步改善。此外，据该行测算，今年上半年公司生猪 养殖完全成本约12.4元/kg，整体成本保持行业第一梯队。 消息面上，近日，德康农牧公布2025年中期业绩，期内公司实现营业收入116.95亿元，同比增长 24.3%；公司生物资产公允价值调整前利润为12.73亿元，同比增长250.6%。其中，生猪板块收入达人民 币98.79亿元，同比增长32.6%，生猪销量511.74万头，同比增长27.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth due to increasing acceptance of domestic brands by pet owners [1][5]. Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a 16% decrease in the cumulative trade deficit for agricultural products [1]. - The pig price fluctuated downwards in August, reaching a high of 21.06 yuan/kg in mid-August before falling to 14.25 yuan/kg by August 13, a 12% decrease compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - The number of breeding sows in China was 40.43 million at the end of Q2, with a slight increase of 0.1% [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cost changes and the financial health of quality pig farming companies, recommending companies such as Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and others [5]. Group 2: Pet Food Industry - The export volume of pet food in July showed a recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, although the export value decreased by 3.08% [4]. - The pet food market in China has a low concentration, but leading domestic companies are expected to grow rapidly as acceptance of domestic brands increases [4][5]. - Recommendations for the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Petty Holdings, with a focus on companies that are likely to benefit from the growing market [5]. Group 3: Agricultural Index Performance - The agricultural index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index from early August to August 22, with the agricultural index rising by 6.02% while the CSI 300 increased by 7.42% [2]. - Among sub-sectors, agricultural product processing and animal health showed relatively strong performance, while fisheries and planting sectors lagged behind [2].

Report Overview - Industry: Pig farming - Date: August 26, 2025 - Report Type: Daily report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the cost of fattening remains low. The expectation of second - round fattening at low prices has increased, which may reduce the pressure on farmers to sell pigs. Although current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with the start of school - related stocking in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually recover. - On the supply side, the planned pig出栏 volume in August is expected to increase significantly compared to July, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens remains high. However, the weight pressure on farmers has decreased recently. In the long term, pig出栏 is likely to maintain a slight increase. - Overall, in the spot market, demand from terminals and second - round fattening may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a possible low - level rebound in spot prices. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract may follow the spot price with a small - scale bottom - rebound. Contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak - demand season, and with a relatively larger increase in demand compared to supply, along with positive factors such as pork storage, high - quality development initiatives, and environmental protection efforts, the prices are expected to rebound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 25th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 13,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from last Friday. The total open interest of the index decreased by 3,810 lots to 182,698 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 25th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses on August 25th was 140,800 heads, down 1,100 heads from the previous day but up 400 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short - term, spot prices may rebound from lows, and near - month futures contracts may follow the spot price. Peak - demand season contracts are expected to rebound due to relatively larger demand growth [9]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of August 15th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 36 yuan/head. The average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 52 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - **Price and Sales Volume**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15th was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week. The planned pig出栏 volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from the actual出栏 volume in July [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of the slaughter sample in the week of August 15th was 1.6335 million heads, a 1.88% increase from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume was 138,446 heads, a 0.96% increase from the previous week [14]. - **Average Weight**: As of the week of August 15th, the average weight of nationwide pig出栏 was 127.82 kg, a 0.02% increase from the previous week and a 1.31% increase from the same period last year [14].

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a positive outlook on COFCO Joycome (01610), projecting net profits of 760 million and 1.15 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price increase of 39% to HKD 2.5, indicating a potential upside of 33% [1] Group 1: Pig Farming and Fresh Meat Business - The pig farming segment is experiencing high-quality growth, with revenue for 1H25 increasing by 68.7% to 4.494 billion yuan, driven by an 83% increase in slaughter volume to 2.899 million heads [2] - The fresh pork segment has shown significant improvement, with revenue rising by 21% to 2.54 billion yuan, and brand revenue share increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 31.2% [2] - The sales volume of branded boxed pork surged by 47% to 27.79 million boxes, while sales of flaxseed pork increased by 123% [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has successfully reduced farming costs, with total costs estimated at 13.0-13.5 yuan per kilogram in 2Q25, and further optimization expected in 2H25 due to improved breeding efficiency and the "company + farmer" model [3] - The financial position remains robust, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.2% at the end of 1H25, reflecting a slight increase due to the acquisition of COFCO Jiahua [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its light-asset model to increase the flexibility of pig farming output, with a target slaughter volume of 5-6 million heads for 2025 [4] - The brand strategy is yielding results, with efforts to improve product quality and expand sales channels, which is expected to gradually enhance profit contributions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a positive outlook on COFCO Joycome (01610), projecting net profits of 760 million and 1.15 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price increase of 39% to 2.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [1] Group 1: Pig Farming and Fresh Meat Business - The pig farming segment is experiencing high-quality growth, with a 68.7% year-on-year revenue increase to 4.494 billion yuan in 1H25, driven by an 83% increase in slaughter volume to 2.899 million heads [2] - The fresh pork segment shows significant improvement, with revenue rising 21% year-on-year to 2.54 billion yuan in 1H25, and brand revenue share increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 31.2% [2] - The sales volume of branded boxed pork surged by 47% to 27.79 million boxes, while sales of flaxseed pork increased by 123% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Financial Health - The company is effectively reducing farming costs, with total costs projected at 13.0-13.5 yuan per kilogram in Q2 2025, and further optimization expected in H2 2025 due to improved breeding systems and operational efficiencies [3] - The financial position remains robust, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.2% at the end of 1H25, reflecting a slight increase due to the acquisition of COFCO Jiahua [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is exploring a light-asset farming model, which is expected to enhance the elasticity of slaughter volumes, with projections of 5-6 million heads for 2025 [4] - The brand strategy is yielding results, with efforts to enhance product quality and expand sales channels, indicating a gradual increase in profit contributions from the fresh meat segment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the integration of financial tools with the traditional pig industry is transforming operational methods and risk management practices, enhancing the industry's ability to withstand risks [1] - The introduction of basis trading allows companies to lock in profits and reduce financial pressure, enabling them to focus on production rather than market fluctuations [2] - The successful implementation of digital models to connect small family farms with larger markets demonstrates the potential for financial resources to flow to smaller entities, providing solutions to mitigate cyclical volatility [3] Group 2 - The introduction of tiered service upgrades by Zhongji Commerce (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. addresses diverse risk management needs of pig farming enterprises through innovative futures and spot business models [4] - The 1.0 version of the forward price locking order has successfully completed the delivery of 208,000 pigs in 2024, with contracts for 1.191 million pigs in 2025, covering 32 enterprises across 20 provinces [4] - The 2.0 version enhances flexibility through financial tools, allowing for dynamic adjustments in contract volumes based on market conditions, and introduces a "pig bank" service to lower hedging thresholds for high-cost enterprises [4][5] Group 3 - The 2.5 version optimizes delivery mechanisms, allowing clients to flexibly price based on pre-sale or repurchase needs, thus enabling timely realization of hedging profits [5] - The three-tiered model creates a comprehensive risk management system that covers basic price locking, dynamic hedging, and flexible delivery, empowering farming enterprises to tackle price volatility challenges [5]

Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is crucial for both the economy and rural revitalization, but it faces challenges from the "pig cycle" and increasing risks, leading to a growing interest in futures and options as risk management tools [1] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, pig prices are expected to fluctuate, with per-head farming profits narrowing to below 100 yuan, prompting farmers to utilize off-market options for risk management and improved capital efficiency [1] Project Process - In April 2025, tariffs on imports of soybeans, corn, and meat from the U.S. raised costs, leading to an increase in spot pig prices. A company, A, concerned about potential price declines, sought to lock in profits through a customized put option strategy [2] Execution Process - The enhanced put option strategy allows A to secure higher short positions when prices fall within a specified range, while also providing a mechanism to manage risks associated with price spikes. The strategy was designed to be flexible based on A's inventory levels, ultimately resulting in a profit of 82,000 yuan [3] Project Summary - The strategy effectively mitigated price decline risks, stabilizing production for A [4] - The use of options reduced the financial burden on A compared to traditional futures hedging, allowing for timely adjustments and retention of potential profits [4] - The innovation in off-market options enhances the alignment of hedging services with the needs of real enterprises, providing reliable financial support for stable operations [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the pig farming industry, highlighting opportunities for both offensive and defensive strategies. It suggests that pig prices may trend downward year-on-year by 2025, while remaining relatively stable within the year, alongside a decrease in costs leading to profits exceeding expectations. The focus should be on high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs and good financial conditions [1] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with leading companies increasing their market share [1] - Attention is recommended for the post-cycle of the breeding chain, specifically suggesting the feed leader Haida Group and companies related to animal vaccines [1] - There is a correlation between yellow chicken prices and pig prices, with the potential for price increases in the future due to low supply levels [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the introduction of pig futures has transformed the pig farming industry by providing a market-based risk management mechanism, allowing producers to better plan production and sales [1][2] - The traditional "pig cycle" has been characterized by small farms' herd behavior and large enterprises' operational difficulties, leading to a distorted ecosystem where the industry often "earns for half a year and loses for three years" [1] - The emergence of derivative tools such as basis trading and rights trading has simplified complex hedging operations into understandable "forward contracts" for farmers, significantly lowering the barriers to risk management [1][2] Group 2 - The innovative application of financial derivatives is reshaping traditional agricultural risk management paradigms, with basis trading redefining pricing logic and the "futures + orders" model reconstructing supply chain collaboration [2] - The transformation of risk management roles within the industry has led to a more efficient allocation of resources, allowing producers to focus on core competencies while transferring price risk to specialized institutions [2][3] - The deep integration of financial tools with traditional agriculture indicates a clear development path for China's agricultural modernization, aiming to build a multi-layered risk diversification system through the derivatives market [3]

中金研究 我们提出，中国猪业已步入新范式：猪价、增长、投资新范式。我们认为传统猪周期规律逐步失效，"振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降"特征强化，源 自后非瘟时代规模化快速提升及固定资产冗余背景下产业分工重塑，近期"反内卷"监管政策调控强化了这一特征。相应地，产业及投资逻辑已变，龙 头因内生增长动能、分红能力更强，成长与价值稀缺性均在凸显。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 猪价新范式：振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降，传统猪周期规律失效。1）后非瘟时期传统猪价规律不 再应验 ，期货市场多次错判。 能 繁 存栏不再与10 个月后的猪价拐点相对应；期货市场对4Q23/3Q24/1Q25等猪价预测偏离达4/4/2元/公斤。 2）新范式特征不断强化。振幅收敛： 2018-2024年三轮猪价快速 上涨的最大涨幅分别为314%/148%/58%； 长度缩短： 2006-2021年期间猪周期长度较为规律，均约4年，2021年以来猪周期长度多为1-2年； 波动下降： 波动较非瘟前阶段性加大，但非瘟后已逐年下降。 猪价新范式由何而来？规模化提升叠加猪场产能相对冗余，产业分工重塑。1）振幅收敛源自规模化率提升。 规模企业周期下行 ...