一、宏观动态 宏观政策：财政政策更积极，赤字率提至4%，专项债限额4.4万亿，超长期特别国债1.3万亿；货币政策适度宽松，央行一季度净投放3.02万亿元，3月MLF 改革，利率市场化再进一步。 宏观数据：经济景气回升，3月综合PMI 51.4%，投资消费回暖，社融增量创同期新高，但进出口承压，通胀温和，M1-M2剪刀差扩大。 基准利率：10年期国债收益率震荡上行，受经济预期、政策及资金面影响，3月因MLF改革等因素波动。 人民币汇率：对美元升值，对欧元、日元贬值，受中美政策、贸易顺差等因素影响。 二、债券市场 一级市场：发行规模12.19万亿元，同比增21.8%，地方政府债增69.07%，信用债发行降5.07%，成本双降，产业债中公用事业增108.53%，城投债发行收 缩，央企融资提升，民企净流出。 二级市场：信用债成交环比降18.3%，利差整体收窄但震荡大，产业债多数行业利差收窄，城投债仅河北微升，整体收窄30.15bp。 三、违约与评级调整 违约：1家企业首次违约，2家展期，违约金额20亿元，集中于汽车零售和多元金融行业。 评级调整：国内上调10家（城投占半），国际上调3家；国内下调7家，国际下调11家， ...

日本30年期国债收益率上涨10个基点，至2.93%。10年期日本国债收益率上涨6.5个基点，至1.525%。此 前40年期国债招标需求疲软。 ...

日本40年期国债拍卖结果出炉，投标倍数为2.21，为2024年7月来新低，最高得标收益率为3.1350%。拍卖结果出炉后，日本国债期货延续跌势，美 元/日元短线走低近30点。 | Auction | Issue | | Amt Sold | Bids | Yield | Issue(2) | Bid/ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date | Number | Coupon | (Y bln) | (Y bln) | (1) | Price | Cover | | 05/28/2025 | 18 | 3.1% | 499.90 | 1.106.60 | 3.135% | 99.20 | 2.214 | | 03/27/2025 | 17R | 2.2% | 699.80 | 2.043.60 | 2.710% | 87.77 | 2.920 | | 01/21/2025 | 17R | 2.2% | 699.50 | 1,924.90 | 2.570% | 90.90 | 2.752 | | 11/27/2024 | 17R | ...

日本40年期国债拍卖认购倍数为2.2，低于上次拍卖的2.9，是自去年11月以来最低的需求水平。 ...

周二，美国股债汇齐涨，再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后，美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨，道指涨1.78%，纳指涨2.47%，标 普500指数涨2.05%，大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹，收益率普跌，长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协：50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下，特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点，跌幅0.6%；标普500指数重挫2.6%；纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道： "希望和预期仍然是，我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明，Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称，应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求，同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...

Group 1: Interest Rates and Bonds - HSBC suggests that without support from the Bank of Japan, the Japanese government bond yield curve may continue to steepen due to unfavorable factors leading to a prolonged steep curve [1] - The clarity of Japan's fiscal policy trajectory and the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing plan will be crucial for stabilizing the long-term yield curve in the coming weeks [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - ANZ analysts report that a weaker US dollar and tight market supply are expected to drive up base metal prices, with copper rising 1.2% to $9,614 per ton [2] - Concerns about the economic backdrop are limiting the price increases of other base metals, although aluminum market supply growth is slowing, which may keep the overall market tight [2] Group 3: Trade and Travel - The Royal Bank of Canada indicates that trade tensions are reshaping Canadian travel plans, potentially boosting domestic consumption while widening the US trade deficit [3] - A notable decline in Canadians returning from the US was observed, with a 20% drop in air travel and a 26% drop in car travel in April [3] Group 4: US Fiscal Policy - CICC reports that the "one big beautiful bill" passed in the House is likely to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit over the next decade, with a debt issuance wave expected between July and September [4] - The report highlights that the US may not have the conditions to effectively reduce the deficit due to structural issues and global competition [4] Group 5: Market Trends - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on sectors like power equipment, grid equipment, and cultural media, as the market is expected to steadily trend upwards [5] - CITIC Securities notes that the trade war is causing structural changes in the global stock market, with a shift in capital allocation towards financial and technology sectors [6] Group 6: Nuclear Industry - CITIC Securities indicates that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is expected to accelerate due to favorable policies, increased financing, and technological advancements [7] - Huatai Securities sees opportunities in the nuclear power equipment sector as uranium prices recover and global nuclear energy policies strengthen [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a temporary relief in the U.S. long-term treasury bond market, driven by a significant drop in the yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, attributed to potential adjustments in Japan's debt issuance strategy [1][3][4] - The recent rebound in the global bond market is seen as a response to strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly a $690 billion two-year bond auction, following news of Japan's possible reduction in bond sales [3][4][6] - Despite the temporary easing of the bond sell-off, concerns regarding the fiscal health of developed nations, especially the growing U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt service costs, are expected to exert continued pressure on long-term bond investors [3][7][8] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield experienced its largest single-day drop since March, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards long-term bonds, even if this trend is seen as short-lived [3][4][6] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as the Biden administration's significant debt issuance has raised the national debt to $36 trillion, contributing to high budget deficits and interest payments [10][12] - The concept of "term premium," which refers to the additional yield investors require for holding long-term bonds, is nearing its highest level since 2014, indicating heightened concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt [9][13]

Core Viewpoint - The auction for six-week U.S. Treasury bills held on May 27 showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 3, indicating strong demand compared to the previous ratio of 2.97 [1] Group 1 - The bid-to-cover ratio of 3 suggests that investors are actively seeking short-term government securities, reflecting confidence in U.S. Treasury bills as a safe investment option [1] - The increase from the previous bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97 indicates a slight uptick in demand for these securities, which may be influenced by current economic conditions and interest rate expectations [1]

美国至5月27日2年期国债竞拍-得标利率配置百分比 90.4%，前值77.99%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond market experienced fluctuations in yields, with the 10-year bond yield declining slightly while shorter-term yields increased, indicating mixed investor sentiment in the wake of a long weekend [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The 10-year UK government bond yield fell by 1.5 basis points to 4.666%, opening lower at 4.602% before gradually recovering [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 4.020%, showing a period of high-level narrow fluctuations throughout the day [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield decreased by 4.4 basis points, while the 50-year bond yield dropped by 3.7 basis points [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds narrowed by 5.27 basis points, now at +64.34 basis points [1]