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贵金属:白银价格具备进一步上涨空间
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:00
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report posits that silver prices have room for further increase. The Fed is likely to enter a new round of easing cycle in the second half of the year, driven by the heavy interest burden on US Treasury bonds due to the high policy - rate environment and the expected expansion of US fiscal deficits. This will drive up the price of silver [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trump Administration's Tax - Cut Policy and US Treasury Bond Issuance Pressure - The "Beautiful Big Bill" promoted by the Trump administration, which includes extending the main provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap expiring in 2025, is expected to reduce US fiscal revenue by $3.54 trillion and increase the overall deficit by $2.77 trillion over the next ten fiscal years. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positively correlated with the gold price in the medium - term, and it has already driven the international gold price to a record high in the first half of the year [4]. - Affected by the US debt ceiling issue, the net issuance of US Treasury bonds was low in the first half of the year. As of May 2025, the cumulative net issuance of US Treasury bonds was $281.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1%. The balance of the US Treasury's cash account decreased from $811.5 billion on January 29 to $334.6 billion in the week of June 25. After the debt ceiling issue is resolved, there is a financing gap of over $500 billion in the Treasury's cash account, indicating significant issuance pressure on US Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Certainty of Fed Policy Rate Cut and Its Driving Factors - The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariff policies. However, the increase in the US import price index excluding food and energy is much lower than that during 2020 - 2022. US inflation data in May 2025 showed a decline compared to expectations and previous values. In the past, the Fed cut rates during the US election, indicating that its monetary policy is not completely free from political influence [9]. - In the recent interest - rate meeting, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. The dot - plot's median interest - rate expectations for 2025 remained at 3.9%, but were raised for 2026 and 2027. Seven voting members expect no rate cut this year, up from four in March. Powell believes the current interest - rate level is appropriate and that tariff - driven inflation may continue [10][11]. - President Trump is dissatisfied with the Fed's interest - rate policy, stating that a rate cut could save the US fiscal expenditure up to $1 trillion. As of May 2025, the cumulative interest expenditure on US Treasury bonds has reached $776 billion, and high interest rates will further increase the deficit during the subsequent concentrated issuance of Treasury bonds [12]. - There is a clear divergence within the Fed regarding the rate - cut rhythm. Fed Governor Waller and Vice - Chair Bowman are in favor of rate cuts. Considering the maintenance of the US dollar's credit and the large interest expenditure squeezing the overall fiscal expenditure, the Fed is certain to cut the policy rate in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for silver prices [13].
五矿期货贵金属日报-20250623
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate policy is the core factor affecting subsequent US Treasury interest payments. Trump is strongly dissatisfied with the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing that a rate cut could save the US government up to $1 trillion in fiscal spending. With the resolution of the debt ceiling in the second half of the year, the overall issuance of US Treasuries will increase significantly. High policy rates will lead to a substantial rise in Treasury interest payments and an increase in the US deficit [2]. - Fed Governor Waller's unexpectedly dovish stance indicates that the Fed's high - interest - rate policy based on the US dollar's credit is not sustainable. The Fed is likely to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, while gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors. It is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for the Fed's inflection point in its stance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On June 23, 2025, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.02% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $3390.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.01% to $36.02 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 98.88 [2]. 3.2 Gold Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was $3384.40 per ounce, down 0.06% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 57.91% to 277,300 lots; open interest rose 0.29% to 417,100 lots; inventory decreased by 0.56% to 1169 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was $3368.25 per ounce, down 0.02% [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 778.58 yuan/gram, down 0.34%; trading volume decreased by 19.45% to 303,900 lots; open interest fell 0.77% to 420,600 lots; inventory remained unchanged at 18.17 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 1.10%, totaling 52.39 billion yuan [6]. - **Au(T + D)**: The closing price was 776.65 yuan/gram, down 0.10%; trading volume decreased by 5.47% to 37.97 tons; open interest fell 1.92% to 212 tons [6]. 3.3 Silver Data - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was $35.95 per ounce, down 2.20%; open interest rose 6.69% to 174,300 lots; inventory decreased by 0.05% to 15,411 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was $36.13 per ounce, down 0.50% [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 8664 yuan/kilogram, down 1.76%; trading volume decreased by 10.79% to 1.0843 million lots; open interest fell 2.50% to 889,600 lots; inventory decreased by 1.03% to 1230.23 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 4.21%, totaling 20.811 billion yuan [6]. - **Ag(T + D)**: The closing price was 8663 yuan/kilogram, down 1.30%; trading volume increased by 35.47% to 745.95 tons; open interest fell 2.82% to 3187.026 tons [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The Fed is expected to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, and it is recommended to wait and see for now, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract being 8522 - 9075 yuan/kilogram. Gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 767 - 801 yuan/gram [3].
五矿期货文字早评-20250616
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 07:43
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, the previous trading day saw declines in major indices, but with increased trading volume. Given current policies and market conditions, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, with weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. - In the precious metals market, due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum may rise first and then fall, zinc has a large downward risk, and lead is expected to be weak [14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel products are affected by factors such as weak demand and tariff policies, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak [27][29][30]. - In the energy and chemical market, rubber is affected by different views on supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate neutrally. Crude oil has reached a short - selling range, and methanol, urea, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions [39][40][43]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of pigs, eggs, etc. have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to different supply - demand situations [55][56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, etc. declined, with a total trading volume of 1467.2 billion yuan, an increase of 195.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - month social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The financing amount increased by 2.387 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 4.40bp to 1.411% [3]. - The basis ratios of index futures were provided, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [4]. Bond - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose slightly [6]. - As of the end of May 2025, the social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The central bank achieved a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan on Friday [7]. - The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.64%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.24%. COMEX gold and silver also rose [9]. - Due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The inventories of the three major exchanges decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. The spot import loss widened, and it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [14]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and it is expected that aluminum prices may rise first and then fall, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15]. Zinc - As of Friday, the zinc index fell 1.40%. Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and there is a large downward risk for zinc prices [16]. Lead - As of Friday, the lead index rose 0.26%. Downstream battery companies have weak consumption, and lead prices are expected to be weak [17]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated downward. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [18]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and terminal demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [19]. Carbonate Lithium - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium have not improved substantially, and there is a large selling pressure above. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [20]. Alumina - On June 13, the alumina index fell 1.45%. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second half of the year [21]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.28%. The inventory of Qing Shan resources is high, and steel prices are under pressure, but they are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [22][23][24]. Black Building Materials Steel - On the previous trading day, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil both rose slightly. The demand for steel products is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore fell 0.14%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29]. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For soda ash, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. Both are expected to be weak [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On June 13, the main contract of manganese silicon rose 0.92%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.50%. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - On June 13, the main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.56%. The industrial silicon market has over - capacity and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Crude oil rose sharply, driving NR and RU to rebound. The bulls and bears have different views on the rubber market, and it is recommended to operate neutrally [39][40]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. The current geopolitical risk has been gradually released, and the oil price has reached a short - selling range [42][43]. Methanol - On June 13, the 09 - contract of methanol rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is difficult to improve continuously. It is recommended to wait and see after the geopolitical conflict's positive impact is realized [44]. Urea - On June 13, the 09 - contract of urea rose. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the price has returned to a low level. It is recommended to go long at a low level [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene is unchanged, and the futures price has risen. The short - term contradiction is the rise in naphtha prices, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly after the war stabilizes [46]. PVC - The PVC09 - contract rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at a high level [49]. PTA - The PTA09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at a low level following PX [50]. Para - xylene - The PX09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening in the short term, and it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at a low level following crude oil [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of polyethylene has risen. The supply pressure may be relieved in June, and it is expected to fluctuate [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - The price of polypropylene has risen. The supply will increase in June, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is expected to be bearish [53]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose. It is expected that pig prices will consolidate today. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at a low level and short on long - term contracts at a high level [55]. Eggs - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable. It is expected that egg prices will be stable this week. It is recommended to exit short positions at a low level and short on long - term contracts after a rebound [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Friday, US soybeans rose more than 2%. The domestic soybean meal spot price has increased. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on far - month soybean meal contracts [57][58]. Oils and Fats - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase. The US bio - diesel policy draft is beyond expectations, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the short term [59][60]. Sugar - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The international sugar market supply may be increasing, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [61][62]. Cotton - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [63][64][65].
全球财政“火药桶”引信未除:美日长债联袂反弹或是暴风雨前宁静
智通财经网· 2025-05-28 00:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a temporary relief in the U.S. long-term treasury bond market, driven by a significant drop in the yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, attributed to potential adjustments in Japan's debt issuance strategy [1][3][4] - The recent rebound in the global bond market is seen as a response to strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly a $690 billion two-year bond auction, following news of Japan's possible reduction in bond sales [3][4][6] - Despite the temporary easing of the bond sell-off, concerns regarding the fiscal health of developed nations, especially the growing U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt service costs, are expected to exert continued pressure on long-term bond investors [3][7][8] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield experienced its largest single-day drop since March, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards long-term bonds, even if this trend is seen as short-lived [3][4][6] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as the Biden administration's significant debt issuance has raised the national debt to $36 trillion, contributing to high budget deficits and interest payments [10][12] - The concept of "term premium," which refers to the additional yield investors require for holding long-term bonds, is nearing its highest level since 2014, indicating heightened concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt [9][13]