Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies focusing on promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Export Performance - China's export performance in 2025 was better than expected, with nominal exports increasing by 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB in the first 11 months. After adjusting for price factors, actual export growth was 7.9% in USD and 9.0% in RMB [4][5] - The strong external demand contributed significantly to China's economic growth, with net exports boosting GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 29.0% of the cumulative GDP growth [4] - The expected growth rate for China's exports in 2026 is projected at 3.4% in USD terms, supported by stable US-China tariffs and China's cost advantages [9][28][30] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly in 2026, from around 1% growth in 2025 to approximately 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [31][46] - The decline in manufacturing investment in 2025 was attributed to "strong supply and weak demand" and trade friction, but the outlook for 2026 suggests a recovery due to improved export expectations and continued policy support [36][46] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected decline in commodity housing sales area of about 5% and a narrowing of the decline in real estate investment to around -11% [55][58] - The real estate sector's recovery will depend on improved consumer confidence and the successful resolution of credit risks among property developers [56][57] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [64] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a funding scale at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [66][68] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 8% growth in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [64]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 1 、分析方法：以需求增速与投资增速的差值衡量供需矛盾，核心逻辑是若需求增速持续超过投资增速，随 着产能逐渐折旧退出，供需之间的相对关系，有望从"供强需弱"转为"供弱需强"。 2 、指标构建：关键在于需求。将社零、出口、固投与行业层面的上游、中游、下游进行匹配，得到上、 中、下游的需求与投资增速差。 3 、当前现象： 11 月，对于中游，需求与投资增速差进一步上行至 7.6% ，前值为 6.4% ，这一差值自 2024 年 5 月开始持续上行，自 2025 年 3 月开始增速差转正。而上游与下游，观察到截至 10 月的情况， 增速差均尚未超过 0 。 4 、未来推演：从历史数据来看，中游需求与投资增速差持续回升，且增速差能回升至 0 以上，有希望看 到在未来 2 年的时间段内的某个时点，中游 PPI 定基指数止跌回升（即，价格止跌）。我们预计， 2026 年很有可能看到中游 PPI 定基指数持续止跌上行。 事实上，从 2025 年 11 月的数据来看，中游 PPI 环比 出现了久违的环比转正（ 2024 年 6 月 ...

Economic Performance - In October, the new social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 595.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[1] - Government bond financing fell due to the overall fiscal financing rhythm, with the first three quarters' issuance at 9,408 billion yuan, up 45,281 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 79.3% of the annual target[1] - New RMB loans in October were 220 billion yuan, down 280 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a recovery in corporate loan demand but a weak performance in residential loans[4] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, with non-automobile retail sales increasing by 4.0%[5] - Restaurant revenue grew by 3.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.9 percentage points compared to September, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth[5] - Automobile and online goods retail sales fell by 4.4% and 1.2% respectively, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points[5] Investment Insights - From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment down 14.7%, further expanding the decline by 0.8 percentage points[10] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments showed positive growth at 2.7% and 1.5% respectively, but both slowed down compared to the previous three quarters[10] - Key sectors contributing positively to fixed asset investment included textiles (1.7%), food processing (1.4%), and beverage manufacturing (1.1%) for the same period[13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The economy is undergoing a transformation from traditional real estate and infrastructure to emerging industries, high - end manufacturing, and service consumption [1][7]. - For the bond market, due to the diminishing effect of traditional drivers (real estate and infrastructure), the potential economic growth rate is declining. New drivers are still being cultivated and cannot fully offset the decline of traditional sectors. In the short term, with inflation under control and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, the risk of significant bond market adjustment is relatively controllable, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 10 - month Economic Data: Total Slowdown and Kinetic Energy Switch - **Economic Growth Characteristics**: In October 2025, the macro - economy featured "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The endogenous economic growth momentum needs to be restored [1][7]. - **Structural Highlights**: - **Industrial Upgrade**: From January to October 2025, the added value of above - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.5% year - on - year, accounting for 36.1% of above - scale industries and contributing 58.7% to the growth of above - scale industrial added value [1][7]. - **High - tech Investment**: Investment in high - tech fields such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence expanded rapidly. From January to October, investment in the aviation, spacecraft, and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year - on - year, and investment in the information service industry increased by 32.7%. After excluding real estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment and private investment turned positive, with growth rates of 1.7% and 0.2% respectively [1][8]. - **New Market Demand**: From January to October, online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year. Upgraded consumer goods sold well, and service retail sales increased by 5.3%. Retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services, as well as tourism consulting and leasing services, maintained double - digit growth [1][8]. 3.2 Industrial Production Remained Stable, with High - end Manufacturing Still Prominent - **Overall Industrial Production**: In October, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a 1.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative growth was 6.1%. The service production index in October increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a 1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - **Industry - Specific Performance**: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of the automobile and transportation equipment industries rebounded significantly compared to the previous month, while those of the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous metal processing industries declined significantly [12]. - **New Kinetic Energy**: The upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued to drive industrial resilience. In October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points faster than the overall above - scale industrial added value respectively. The output of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased rapidly [13]. 3.3 Consumption Recovery was Moderate, with Service Consumption Better than Goods - **Overall Consumption**: In October, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed slightly to 2.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Among them, commodity retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, a 2.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [16]. - **Consumption Structure**: Upgraded consumption performed well, and service consumption maintained resilience. In October, rural consumption grew by 4.1%, faster than urban consumption. However, the transmission of consumption policies to end - demand needs further observation due to the constraints of income expectations and housing price wealth effects on consumption willingness [21][23]. 3.4 Investment Growth Continued to Decline, with Manufacturing Standing Out - **Overall Investment**: From January to October, fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The investment structure showed "stable manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag", with only manufacturing investment maintaining positive growth [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to October, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year. Equipment purchase investment remained resilient, with a 13% year - on - year increase from January to October, 14.7 percentage points higher than total investment. However, under the guidance of the "anti - involution" policy, the investment motivation of some enterprises may decline in the short term [26]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, with a further decline in growth. Traditional infrastructure construction slowed down, and the construction industry's prosperity level declined. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds in October was slow, and the capital availability of some projects might not meet expectations [27]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, with an increasing negative impact. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". Follow - up real estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented [28].

Economic Overview - Shandong's GDP for the first three quarters reached 77,115 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% at constant prices [2] - The economic performance is characterized by a steady and positive trend, supported by macroeconomic policies and a focus on high-quality development [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 7.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - The manufacturing sector saw a significant increase of 8.9%, with the equipment manufacturing industry growing by 12.0%, contributing 3.0 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [2] - Key industries such as automotive, railway, and electronics reported substantial growth rates of 17.0%, 14.9%, and 16.6% respectively [2] Service Sector - The revenue of large-scale service industries increased by 5.4% from January to August, with 28 out of 32 major industry categories experiencing growth [3] - Notable growth was observed in entertainment, public facilities management, and business services, with revenue growth rates of 19.4%, 18.9%, and 16.9% respectively [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 30,386.1 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% in the first three quarters [3] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 17.1%, significantly outpacing the overall retail sales growth [3] Investment Trends - Industrial investment grew by 7.7%, surpassing the overall investment growth rate by 11.4 percentage points, contributing to a 3.1% increase in total investment [3] - Specific sectors such as specialized equipment manufacturing, metal products, and general equipment manufacturing saw investment growth rates of 10.3%, 21.9%, and 29.5% respectively [3] Trade and Employment - The total import and export value reached 2.62 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [4] - The employment situation remained stable, with urban employment increasing by 105.9 thousand, and per capita disposable income rising to 33,826 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.0% [4]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month downward trend[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[6] - The inventory of residential properties has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing destocking efforts[6] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand[6] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a recorded rate of 17.8% for individuals aged 18-24[56]

Core Points - The city of Hangzhou has closed six cooling stations on September 1, marking the end of their service for the summer season [1] - This year marks the 23rd consecutive year that the National Defense Mobilization Office has opened cooling stations, which covered a total area of 3,750 square meters [1] - Due to the prolonged high temperatures this summer, the cooling stations became popular, receiving nearly 200,000 visitors since their opening on July 1, with daily averages exceeding 4,000 during peak times [1] Summary by Categories Service and Experience - The cooling stations underwent comprehensive upgrades this year, with the flagship location at 38 Fourpailou featuring eight functional areas, including a National Defense Mobilization Experience Hall and a shared library [1] - The "Middle Stream Pillar - Chinese Communist Party Anti-Japanese War Special Photo Exhibition" attracted many visitors during the summer vacation, with the experience hall receiving 5,000 middle and primary school students [1] Community Engagement - The National Defense Mobilization Office initiated a "Cooling Service Alliance" to integrate various resources and launched a series of "Cooling+" activities, including cultural performances and health clinics, which were well-received by the public [1] - Over the past 23 years, the cooling stations have evolved from simple setups to a comprehensive "livelihood project," reflecting the city's commitment to addressing public needs [1] Future Plans - The National Defense Mobilization Office plans to continue gathering public feedback to optimize the layout and services of the cooling stations, ensuring timely service for the next summer [1]

一是结构上产需同步向好。 一季度，外需增速高于生产和内需。"抢出口"效应下以人民币计价的出口同比增 速达6.9%。内需提振政策效果延续，社零和投资分别增长4.6%、4.2%。其中，基建（11.5%）和制造业投资 （9.1%）保持高增，房地产投资（-9.9%）拖累减弱。生产端工业增加值增长6.5%，增速为2022年以来的次高 值。值得注意的是，供给强于需求的格局仍在继续，一季度产能利用率（74.1%）和产销率（94.6%）均略超 季节性回落。 图1：3月内外需求增速均有提升 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 图2：消费提振，投资分化 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 二是节奏上前稳后高。 3月多数经济数据增速较1-2月改善。生产加快修复，3月规模以上工业增加值同比增速 上行1.8pct至7.7%。需求端以基建投资好转最为显著，3月增速大幅提升2.6pct至12.6%。社零增速表现亮眼，3 月增速提升1.9cpt至5.9%，达到2020年以来的最高值【注释1】。制造业投资增速微升，房地产投资增速微 降。 图3：房地产销售降幅略有收窄，投资降幅再度扩张 一、总览：供需两旺 一季度我国经济开局良好，实际GDP同比 ...