□廖诗雪 5年，可以改变什么？雅安市荥经县的答案清晰而明确：荒山披新绿，青山变"金山"；产业破茧成蝶，城乡焕发新 颜。 时序更迭，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"启航的历史交汇点上回望，一幅"绿美荥经"的时代画卷在严道故地上徐 徐展开。这是荥经发展从"量的积累"到"质的飞跃"的5年，围绕建设"中国黑砂城"、打造"全国生态价值转化样板 区"的核心目标，荥经在统筹发展和安全中砥砺前行。数字是最有力的证明：2024年全县地区生产总值突破97亿 元，这条着眼于长远、立足于当前的生态优先、绿色发展之路，在实践中越走越宽广。 生态筑基 国家公园里的使命与新生 11月19日，初冬的龙苍沟叠翠溪景区层林尽染，静谧中透出季节更迭的诗意。大熊猫国家公园荥经县管护总站工 作人员李平站在景区西侧介绍："这边将打造为大熊猫国家公园荥经野外科普基地（以下简称科普基地）入口。" 这一科普基地的规划，是荥经持续推进大熊猫国家公园建设的又一重要举措。作为大熊猫国家公园南入口门户， 荥经肩负着836平方公里的管护重任。李平介绍，"科普基地总规划面积约12000亩，计划建设大熊猫科普展览馆、 大熊猫邂逅区以及多条生态体验路线，形成综合服务、熊猫互动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental protection industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of a circular economy, which is expected to unlock potential in the recycling metal industry, making it a significant area for investment [2][3] - China's non-ferrous metal resources are unevenly distributed, with copper, aluminum, and nickel reserves being relatively scarce, leading to high import dependence [3][17] - The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to the growth of new energy sectors and data centers, with a potential supply gap of 30% by 2035 [26][29] - The production of recycled metals is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, with significant energy and water savings compared to primary metal production [29][30] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 21, the environmental protection sector declined by 6.02%, underperforming the broader market, which fell by 3.90% [3][10] - The water management and waste treatment sub-sectors also experienced declines of 4.50% and 9.76%, respectively [11][12] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced early allocation of the 2026 budget for clean energy development, supporting unconventional natural gas extraction [35] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice regarding carbon emission trading quotas for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025 [36] - The production of ten major non-ferrous metals in China is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 5% [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the water and waste incineration sectors, which are expected to maintain stable profitability and positive cash flow [3][30] - Key recommended stocks include: Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [3][30]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 19 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 铜 | 专题报告 2025 年专题报告 铜 专业研究·创造价值 应对矿端收缩与冶炼困局——再生铜 摘 要 | 1 再生铜的重要性 3 | | --- | | 2 全球再生铜情况 4 | | 3 国内再生铜情况 5 | | 4 总结 8 | | 图 1 21 世纪全球铜矿产量 3 | | --- | | 图 2 全球再生铜产量占比 4 | | 图 3 全球原生铜和再生铜产量 4 | | 图 4 美国废铜和精铜情况 5 | | 图 5 国内原生铜和再生铜产量 5 | ...

Core Viewpoint - *ST Jieneng's stock reached the daily limit with a price of 2.78 yuan, reflecting a 4.91% increase, driven by positive developments in its renewable energy business and improved financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Business Developments - The company is actively expanding in the renewable energy and low-carbon materials sectors, securing a 304.5 million yuan EPC contract for a storage project, aligning with national policy directions [2]. - An investment of 120 million yuan in a recycled copper project is aimed at extending the company's industrial chain, which is expected to enhance future growth prospects [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company's net profit loss narrowed by 44.43% year-on-year, indicating signs of operational improvement [2]. - Contract liabilities increased by 3731.98%, suggesting a robust order reserve that supports future performance [2]. - The company's subsidiary in the renewable energy sector, Hubei Fuyou, reported a profit of 2.189 million yuan, boosting market confidence [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The renewable energy and storage sectors are currently popular in the market, with certain stocks in the same sector showing active performance [2]. - On October 31, 2025, there was notable capital inflow into the storage sector, contributing to a sector-wide momentum that positively impacted *ST Jieneng's stock [2]. - Technical analysis suggests that news of improved performance and business expansion may attract further capital inflow, potentially driving stock price increases [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance green trade in China, aiming to promote low-carbon development in foreign trade enterprises and achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals. Group 1: Enhancing Green Development Capabilities - Foreign trade enterprises are encouraged to strengthen awareness of green low-carbon development through training and sharing best practices [1][2] - Support for green design and production is emphasized, including the use of renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions in production processes [1][2] Group 2: Promoting Green Logistics - The strategy promotes the shift of long-distance transportation from road to rail and water, encouraging the use of environmentally friendly packaging and logistics equipment [2] - Support for shipping companies to establish green low-carbon systems and utilize clean energy in transportation is highlighted [2] Group 3: Expanding Green Product and Technology Trade - Foreign trade enterprises are guided to develop products made from recycled materials and explore sustainable fuel trade [3] - Research on overseas markets for green low-carbon products is encouraged to identify potential trade opportunities [3] Group 4: Creating a Favorable International Environment - Strengthening international communication and participation in global carbon trade rule discussions is emphasized [6] - The establishment of standards for green low-carbon products and services that align with international norms is encouraged [6] Group 5: Supporting Infrastructure for Green Trade - Financial policies are to be enhanced to support green low-carbon product exports, including the development of carbon footprint databases [12][13] - The article calls for the establishment of a monitoring and analysis system for green trade statistics to support policy development [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weekend Sino - US trade negotiation sent out mild signals, forming a preliminary consensus on relevant issues, which improved the market risk appetite. The US CPI in September was weaker than expected, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions in China boosted the market sentiment. Macro factors are generally favorable to copper prices. On the fundamental side, intensified disturbances in the mining end increased the expectation of copper ore shortage, supporting copper prices. Recently, the improvement in market risk appetite and the resonance of macro and micro factors jointly drove up the center of copper prices. Currently at the tail of risk pricing, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. The strategy is to expect a volatile and upward trend, and recommend buying on dips [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: The spot TC of copper concentrate decreased from - 40.97 to - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.22%. The market was quiet, and attention should be paid to the long - term negotiation results in November. The refined - scrap copper price difference increased from 3123 to 3438 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.07%. The southern crude copper processing fee decreased from 1000 to 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10%. The refined copper rod operating rate decreased from 63% to 62%, a decrease of 1.52%. The recycled copper rod operating rate increased from 18% to 19%, a rise of 2.19%. The wire and cable operating rate increased from 62% to 62.4%, a rise of 0.69% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: Global visible inventory increased, mainly from the accumulation in COMEX and domestic inventories, while LME inventory decreased. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased from 17.75 to 18.16 million tons, a rise of 2.31%. The bonded area inventory decreased from 9.77 to 9.28 million tons, a decrease of 5.02%. The total global inventory increased from 71.05 to 73.58 million tons, a rise of 3.57% [7]. - **Profit Data**: The smelting comprehensive profit (spot) decreased from - 3453 to - 4992 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.56%. The smelting comprehensive profit (long - term) decreased from - 106 to - 1559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1368.14%. The import profit increased from - 601 to - 581 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.30% [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper month - to - three - month spread, sulfuric acid price, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, Shanghai - London ratio, and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount over multiple years [12][15][17]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot copper import profit, feed - in processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (long - term) over multiple years [19][20]. - **Supply**: Data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate import volume, scrap copper import volume, crude copper import volume, electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper import volume, and total electrolytic copper supply are provided, including monthly and cumulative data and their changes over multiple years [26][30]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: Information on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, copper rod wire raw material inventory, copper rod wire finished product inventory ratio, and the operating rate of wire and cable production (weekly, monthly) is given [31]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: Data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amount, cumulative and monthly power source investment completion amount, and their changes over multiple years are presented [33]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: Information on the monthly operating rate of copper tubes, copper tube raw material inventory ratio, copper tube finished product inventory, monthly household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and export volume, and their changes over multiple years are provided [42]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: Data on the monthly operating rate of copper plate - strip, copper plate - strip raw material inventory, and copper plate - strip raw material inventory ratio, and their changes over multiple years are presented [44]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: Information on monthly automobile production, new - energy automobile production, automobile sales, and new - energy automobile sales, and their changes over multiple years are provided [50]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: Data on the monthly operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, cumulative and monthly housing completion area, and their changes over multiple years are presented [53]. - **Inventory**: Data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, LME electrolytic copper inventory, global refined copper inventory, and LME cancelled warrants and their proportions over multiple years are provided [58]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32%, showing a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1814.84 lots [69].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Jintian Copper - **Industry**: Copper and Rare Earth Materials Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit Growth**: The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 104% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 205.69% [2][4] - **Revenue**: Main business revenue reached 84.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54% [4] - **Production and Sales**: Total production exceeded 1.4 million tons, and sales surpassed 1.3 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2][4] Business Segments - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Materials**: Gross margin improved from 7%-8% to nearly 15% [2][4] - **Overseas Market Performance**: Sales in overseas markets grew by 14.5% to 151,300 tons, with products like copper busbars, electromagnetic wires, and copper rods showing significantly higher profitability than domestic sales [2][6] - **New Energy Sector**: Sales of copper products in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and wind power sectors totaled 170,600 tons, with a 20% growth in new energy vehicle-related products [2][7] Strategic Developments - **High-End Product Development**: The company is focusing on high-end applications, with 48 projects in new energy vehicle drive motors and plans to mass-produce 1,200V and 1,500V platforms by early 2026 [7] - **Green Low-Carbon Recycled Copper**: Sales doubled year-on-year, exceeding 1,000 tons, with applications in laptops, smartphones, and new energy vehicle battery connections [2][8] - **Cooling Solutions**: The company achieved over 50% growth in the cooling sector, with significant quarterly increases and a 20% rise in overseas revenue [2][10] Future Outlook - **Strategic Planning**: The company is committed to internationalization, high-end development, and green initiatives, with a five-year strategic plan developed in collaboration with Roland Berger [9] - **Capacity Utilization**: Current capacity utilization is over 85%, expected to rise to 90%-95% by 2026 [16] - **Expansion Plans**: Plans to expand production capacity in Thailand and Vietnam, with the Thai copper tube project expected to release part of its capacity in 2026 [2][6] Market Challenges and Opportunities - **Regulatory Environment**: Recent policy changes are expected to enhance industry concentration and provide pricing power to larger enterprises [30] - **Recycled Copper Market**: The market for recycled copper is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company positioned as a leader in using recycled materials [24] - **Taxation Disadvantages**: The company faces higher tax costs compared to some domestic competitors, impacting profitability in the recycled materials segment [25][26] Conclusion - **Investment Potential**: The company's strong financial performance, strategic focus on high-end and green products, and expansion plans present significant investment opportunities, particularly in the context of evolving market dynamics and regulatory changes [9][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the copper processing industry, with a focus on high-end product development and international expansion, which is expected to drive profit margins higher [4][16]. - The company's single-ton gross profit for copper products is anticipated to continue its upward trend, benefiting from structural optimization and a shift towards high-margin products [1][3]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in gross profit from copper processing products, projected to increase from 2.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.3 billion yuan by 2030 [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a leader in the copper processing industry for 39 years, providing essential materials to various sectors, including new energy vehicles and semiconductor industries [16][21]. - It has established a comprehensive product matrix, including copper and copper alloy materials, and has a strong international presence with subsidiaries in over 100 countries [16][24]. Traditional Business - The company has shown resilience in its copper processing business, with single-ton gross profit rebounding after hitting a low in 2022, indicating strong performance despite industry challenges [1][46]. - The company has successfully expanded its international operations, achieving a 21.86% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025 [2][46]. Emerging Business - The company is strategically investing in high-end sectors such as new energy vehicles, data centers, and robotics, which are expected to enhance its long-term growth potential [3][4]. - The demand for high-end copper materials is increasing due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles and the shift towards high-voltage architectures [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 716 million yuan, 868 million yuan, and 968 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 29.91X, 24.68X, and 22.12X [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and growth prospects, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [4][6].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Recycling Metal Industry High-Quality Development Summit was held in Fengcheng, Jiangxi, where the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Recycling Metal Branch released the list of the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises for 2024 [1] - The revenue threshold for entering the top 30 recycling nonferrous metal enterprises is set at 4.144 billion yuan, with 17 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57% of the total [1] - The total revenue of the top 30 enterprises reached 392.895 billion yuan, with the top 20 enterprises' total revenue increasing to 333.135 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Among the top 30 enterprises, 11 recycling copper companies generated a combined revenue of 157.609 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the total [1] - Six recycling aluminum companies reported a total revenue of 60.596 billion yuan, making up 15% of the total [1] - Four recycling lead companies achieved a combined revenue of 36.219 billion yuan, representing 10% of the total [1] - Nine multi-metal recycling enterprises (with two or more varieties) generated a total revenue of 138.471 billion yuan, accounting for 35% of the total [1]

Group 1 - The company held a half-year performance briefing on September 4, 2025, attended by key executives and independent directors to interact with investors [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 63.657 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.90% to 1.448 billion yuan [2] - The company’s non-ferrous metal business generated revenue of 51.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, accounting for 80% of total revenue, highlighting its significant contribution to overall performance [2] Group 2 - The company is focused on strengthening its core capabilities and enhancing trade and investment operations, with an emphasis on technological empowerment and risk management optimization for high-quality development [2] - The company’s overseas investment projects, particularly the Peru Bamba copper mine, showed stable production with a year-on-year increase in both production and sales exceeding 50%, marking the first dividend since its acquisition in 2014 [2] - The company is committed to green development and has integrated ESG principles into its governance structure, receiving an A rating from institutions like Zhongzheng and WIND, and has been recognized with multiple ESG awards [3]