坚定出海方向，把握结构性机遇 - 医药行业 2026 年策略 20260108 摘要 2025 年创新药企凭借对外授权交易（BD）取得突破，全球前十大创新 交易中八项来自中国企业，提升市场信心，但 BD 首付款仅为部分价值 兑现，临床数据验证仍是关键。 中国创新药发展加速，从 me-too/fast follow 向 best-in-class/first- in-class 升级，出海成关键驱动力。ADC、双抗等技术积累领域已突破， 小核酸、基因治疗等新兴领域展现潜力。 医疗器械领域各细分市场表现分化：低值耗材（如丁腈手套）已具产业 话语权；IVD 疫情期间出口良好；高端医疗设备和高值耗材出海初期， 高值耗材被认为更具突破性。 医疗器械出海成绩显著，心血管支架、人工关节、心脏起搏器等增速可 观，本土企业在关节和内镜检查耗材方面实现出口突破，进入发达国家 市场，定价和利润回报可期。 高值耗材与药品差异在于其独立知识产权和创新性，可进行 license out。通过合作或自建渠道建立发达国家销售网络，有望抵消国内集采 影响，推动医疗器械板块增速回升。 Q&A 2025 年医药行业的整体表现如何？创新药在其中扮演 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2025 年度医药业绩前瞻 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2024 年医药行业的整体表现如何? 2024年,医药行业在 31个一级行业中涨幅排名第 18 位,上涨 11.94%。尽管整 体表现一般,但创新药板块走出了过去四年的熊市态势。然而,上周医药行业表 现较为平淡,在 31个一级行业中排名第 28位,下跌 2%。上涨的股票没有明显 规律性,但脑机接口相关概念股涨幅相对突出。 医药行业 2025年整体表现平淡,但创新药板块持续改善,其他板块逐渐 ● 摆脱控费等负面影响。2026年,创新药及其产业链、医疗器械、中药等 领域存在投资机会,国内外市场对创新需求依然迫切。 创新药市场情绪低迷,但产业利好不断,如泽璟制药 CD3DL3 三抗产品授 ● 权艾伯维,首付款1亿美元。信达生物、中国生物制药、乐普生物等公司 产品端临床数据或授权端均无风险,是现价可布局的优质标的。 医疗器械公司去库存接近尾声,2026年季度业绩有望改善,招投标量增 ● 长显著。关注奥华、开利、迈瑞、联影等头部企业。高值耗材如电生理(微 电和惠泰）、神经外科(迈普）、骨科(春立)等赛道 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.597 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 142 million yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 810 million yuan, a decline of 7.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 34 million yuan, down 23.1% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue from cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials was 1.57 billion yuan, 310 million yuan, and 280 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, -17.5%, and +11.2%. Specifically, the cosmetics segment, led by the brand Yilian, achieved a revenue of 790 million yuan, a growth of 19.5% year-on-year, with the core spray product line seeing a sales increase of 28%. The brand Aier Bo Shi underwent brand adjustments, generating 650 million yuan in revenue, with a narrowing decline in Q3. The brand Kemi accelerated its growth, with revenues of 77.19 million yuan in Q1-Q3, showing sequential growth of 82% and 138% from Q2 to Q3 [10]. Profitability - The company's gross profit margin declined, with the net profit margin decreasing slightly by 0.8 percentage points to 4.2% in Q3 2025. This decline was primarily due to a 2.3 percentage point drop in gross margin attributed to adjustments in the cosmetics business, and an overall increase in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios totaling an increase of 0.9 percentage points [10]. Investment Recommendations - The company is focusing on its core brands in the cosmetics sector, with Yilian showing strong growth. The brand Aier Bo Shi has completed its brand upgrade and product launch, with a narrowing decline. The brand Kemi is also accelerating its growth. The product and brand matrix is gradually improving, which is expected to help restore profitability in the future. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.24, 0.29, and 0.34 yuan per share respectively [10].

Summary of the Conference Call for Furuida Company Overview - **Company**: Furuida - **Year**: 2025 - **Industry**: Cosmetics, Pharmaceuticals, and Raw Materials Key Points Overall Performance Expectations - Furuida's overall performance in 2025 is expected to be flat, with a slight decline in cosmetics business, stable growth in raw materials, and pressure in the pharmaceutical sector [2][29][30] Brand Performance - **Yilian Brand**: Despite a decline during the Double Eleven sales event, the annual growth expectation remains at 15%-20%, with the cooking series products performing well and improving overall gross margin [2][5] - **Doctor Brand**: The probiotic series adjustment is nearing completion, with some face masks resuming shipment. Positive growth is anticipated for next year [2][11] - **Kemi Brand**: Expected to achieve triple-digit growth, with sales projected to reach around 100 million due to the success of the Chuangmo peptide technology and collaboration with Xinhua Net [2][21] Raw Materials Business - Significant growth in the raw materials business in Q3, driven by high demand for food-grade and cosmetic-grade hyaluronic acid, as well as rapid expansion in the overseas market for pharmaceutical-grade hyaluronic acid [2][25][27] Sales Channels - Douyin has become the largest sales channel, accounting for approximately 60% of online sales, while Tmall accounts for about 40% [8][6] - The self-broadcasting and other channels have maintained rapid growth despite the absence of top-tier influencer collaborations [6][8] Product Structure and Innovations - The proportion of spray products in the Yilian brand has risen to over 70% due to successful sales of the spray kit endorsed by Zhang Linghe [9] - The 287 series is positioned to replace the original probiotic series, focusing on specific skin issues and improving product quality [16] Future Plans and Strategies - Plans to advance equity incentives and acquisition strategies in 2026, with preparations already underway [12][34] - The company is exploring new directions in the pharmaceutical sector, including online pharmacies and health food products, although these require time and investment for scaling [28] Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about 2026, expecting positive effects from current adjustments and a favorable market environment [29][33] - The pharmaceutical business is under pressure, but the company is actively seeking new growth avenues [28] Financial Performance - The company aims to improve profitability through enhanced gross margins and various measures despite a flat overall performance in 2025 [30] Regulatory and Certification Updates - Anticipation of receiving three types of certifications for pharmaceutical-grade hyaluronic acid by late 2026 or early 2027, which could significantly boost sales [23][24] Competitive Landscape - The competition between Tmall and Douyin is seen as beneficial, providing more promotional opportunities for the company [19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Furuida's current performance, brand dynamics, market strategies, and future outlook.

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 23.1% year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating overall performance pressure [1] - The company focuses on the integration of cosmetic and pharmaceutical sectors, leveraging a "5+N" core technology matrix to enhance future performance [1] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, a decrease of 17.2% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 810 million yuan, down 8.0%, and net profit was 30 million yuan, down 23.1% [1] - The overall gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 51.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points [2] Business Segment Analysis - Cosmetics segment revenue was 1.57 billion yuan, down 8.2%, with a gross margin of 61.2%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; notable performances included a 19.5% increase in revenue for the Yilian brand [2] - Pharmaceutical segment revenue was 310 million yuan, down 17.5%, but gross margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 52.3% [2] - Raw materials segment revenue increased by 11.2% to 280 million yuan, with a gross margin of 40.3%, up 0.9 percentage points; pharmaceutical-grade raw material sales surged by 107.8% year-on-year [2] Brand and Strategic Developments - The Yilian brand maintained growth, with a 28% increase in sales for the spray product line in Q1-Q3 2025; a new product launch achieved significant sales during a major shopping event [3] - The company is advancing its raw material strategy, achieving regulatory approvals for new ingredients and enhancing its product offerings in the health and wellness sector [3] - The company is also innovating in traditional Chinese medicine, collaborating with established brands to develop new products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 2.597 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 142 million yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin has decreased, and the expense ratio has increased, leading to a decline in net profit margin [8] - The company is focusing on three main business segments: cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials, with varying performance across these areas [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 3.871 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 219 million yuan in 2025, down 10.2% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 51.7% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 58.3% by 2027 [7] Business Segment Performance - The cosmetics segment reported revenue of 1.569 billion yuan for Q1-3 2025, down 8.2% year-on-year, while the high-value brand Yilian saw a revenue increase of 19.5% [8] - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue decreased by 17.46% to 305 million yuan [8] - The raw materials segment showed resilience with a revenue increase of 11.2% to 276 million yuan [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively participating in various industry events to expand its market presence and enhance its product offerings [8] - Research and development remain a key focus, with the launch of an ideal skin data platform and the establishment of industry standards [8] - The company aims to build a comprehensive health industry chain, leveraging its R&D capabilities [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.79 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q2 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 910 million yuan, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 57.25 million yuan, down 16.1% year-on-year [2][4] - The cosmetics business, particularly the Yilian brand, showed steady growth, while the Aier Doctor brand is undergoing a phase of adjustment [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the cosmetics, pharmaceutical, and raw materials segments generated revenues of 1.09 billion, 210 million, and 180 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.7%, -13.9%, and +4.2% [10] - The Yilian brand achieved a revenue of 550 million yuan, a growth of 23.8% year-on-year, while the Aier Doctor brand saw a revenue decline of 30% to 450 million yuan [10] - The overall gross profit margin slightly improved, with a net profit margin of 6%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [10] Business Segments - The Yilian brand's growth was supported by the announcement of a global spokesperson, leading to a 43% increase in the spray product line [10] - The Aier Doctor brand is in a brand adjustment phase, with new product launches expected to drive future growth [10] - The raw materials business showed stability, with sales of hyaluronic acid reaching 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on its main brands, with the Yilian brand showing strong momentum and the Aier Doctor brand undergoing necessary adjustments [10] - The company anticipates improvements in profitability due to optimized channel structures and enhanced gross margins in the raw materials segment [10] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.24, 0.29, and 0.34 yuan per share respectively [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on the performance of its cosmetics and raw materials businesses [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 1.789 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, down 15.2% [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue was 913 million yuan, reflecting an 11.7% decline, with a net profit of 57 million yuan, down 16.1% [1]. - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 1.094 billion yuan in 1H25, a decrease of 7.7%, with a gross margin of 62.0%, up 0.6 percentage points [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The cosmetics business saw significant growth in the Yilian brand, which achieved revenue of 554 million yuan, up 23.8%, while the Aier Doctor brand experienced a decline of 30.0% to 451 million yuan [2]. - The pharmaceutical products segment generated revenue of 207 million yuan, down 13.9%, with a gross margin of 51.8%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. - The raw materials and derivatives segment reported revenue of 179 million yuan, an increase of 4.2%, with a gross margin of 40.9%, up 1.7 percentage points [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "5+N" brand strategy in the cosmetics sector, with the Yilian brand benefiting from promotional activities, leading to a 43% increase in core spray product sales [3]. - The Aier Doctor brand is undergoing adjustments, with positive feedback on the newly launched 287 series [3]. - The company is expanding its pharmaceutical business by developing over 200 hospitals and OTC clients, while also innovating in the "Traditional Chinese Medicine +" sector [3]. Investment Outlook - The company aims to build a beauty and health ecosystem, with strong growth in the Yilian brand and contributions from the raw materials business [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 260 million yuan, 297 million yuan, and 339 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33.3, 29.1, and 25.6 [3].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones down 0.02%, the Nasdaq up 0.94%, and the S&P 500 up 0.47% [1] - The VIX index decreased by 1.13% to 16.64, indicating reduced market volatility [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.14% to 96.78, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 0.848% to 4.281% [1] - Spot gold increased by 0.54% to $3356.93 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose by 2.83% to $69.12 [1] Industry & Stocks - In the sector performance, all major S&P sectors except for healthcare, utilities, and communications saw gains, with semiconductor, energy, materials, technology, consumer staples, real estate, and industrials rising by 1.9%, 1.72%, 1.5%, 1.06%, 0.29%, 0.19%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with TSMC up 3.97%, Pinduoduo down 1.44%, and Li Auto down 2.57% [2] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up 2.58%, Apple up 2.22%, and Google up 1.61%, while Microsoft fell by 0.2% due to scaling back AI chip production [2] - Tesla's Q2 global vehicle sales decreased by 13.5% year-over-year, totaling 384,122 units, which was below analyst expectations of 387,000 units [3][4] - Tesla is facing challenges due to brand pressure and competition, prompting a shift towards updating vehicles and low-cost financing to attract customers [4] Key Developments - Oracle and OpenAI have expanded their Stargate agreement, with OpenAI seeking 4.5 GW of power from Oracle's data centers as part of a $30 billion cloud agreement [6] - The solar sector saw a boost as the Senate's final tax reform bill did not impose taxes on solar projects [6] - The Federal Reserve's probability of maintaining interest rates in July is 74.7%, with a 69.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **pharmaceutical industry**, particularly the **biotech sector** and **innovative drugs** in China for the year 2025 [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **2025 innovative drug market** is expected to benefit from increased liquidity and risk appetite, indicating a non-bubble environment. Key drivers include a decline in the US dollar index and significant events in the biotech sector [1][4]. - **Domestic biotech companies** are leading globally in areas such as **dual antibodies**, **ADC**, and **TYK2 inhibitors**. Companies adhering to SRA or the fifth set of listing criteria have validated core technologies, with promising pipeline data expected [1][5][6]. - The **Chinese innovative drug market** is not in a bubble phase, as it still lags behind major global vaccine companies. The market's valuation should align more closely with the largest multinational corporations (MNCs) [1][7]. - The **investment logic** for innovative drugs is based on global recognition by major pharmaceutical companies, smooth commercialization processes, and improved domestic clinical policies and research efficiency [1][11]. Risks and Challenges - The primary risk for the pharmaceutical industry stems from potential changes in **policies and regulations** that could impact domestic reforms and alignment with US policies. Continuous improvement in clinical research efficiency is noted [1][10]. - The **generic drug industry** faces challenges and opportunities due to optimized procurement policies, which may lead to industry consolidation. The introduction of stricter regulations is expected to change the landscape significantly [1][15]. Noteworthy Developments - The **2025 market** will focus on **diabetes and weight loss drugs**, particularly **GLP-1 receptor agonists**, along with **TYK2 inhibitors** and **CD3** in autoimmune research. The raw material sector is anticipated to grow due to low base years and capacity constraints [2][12][13]. - The **GPCR sector** within the pharmaceutical industry shows promising prospects, benefiting from optimized procurement policies and a trend towards increased concentration among leading companies [1][14]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for the **innovative drug sector** remains positive, with confidence in continued growth driven by regulatory support and market dynamics. The focus on specific therapeutic areas and raw materials indicates a strategic approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the pharmaceutical landscape [1][11][12].