让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究所 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：张清 投资咨询： Z0019679 2025 年 12 月 25 日 中辉期货研究 2026 商品年度报告 年 碳酸锂 储能高景气，碳酸锂开启新周期 摘 要 供应端：从全球资源端来看，锂资源仍有放量空间，而且大部分以中资企 业投产的项目为主。由于 2025 年价格处于低位的时间较短，产能出清不够彻 底，供应端依然呈现分散，弹性大的特征，高价仍会刺激存量项目提升开工 率。 需求端：终端需求增长的确定性较强，2026 年全球新能源汽车渗透率有 望达到 30%，带动动力电池需求增长，尤其是国内纯电动汽车比例提升以及重 卡等商用车同比保持高增；储能市场在经济性提升和海内外需求共振的背景 下，装机需求有望持续提升。 综合来看， 2026 年碳酸锂将从供应过剩逐步转向紧平衡的格局，行业 库存覆盖天数明显下降将推动价格中枢上移。从长期来看，本轮周期投产周 期高峰已过，而全球各国对储能的支持使得乐观预期强化，市场投机需求旺 盛。但高供应弹性下价格上涨节奏 ...

中金公司研报指出，厦钨新能为正极材料龙头，新型正极和固态材料放量可期。伴随政策端拉动国内消 费电子需求，技术端AI 手机放量等驱动更新换代以及带电量提升，该行预计消费电池需求稳步增长、 同时高电压需求提升。公司为钴酸锂全球龙头、市场份额超过50%。公司积极布局前沿技术，新型正极 和固态材料放量可期。首次覆盖厦钨新能，给予"跑赢行业"评级，目标价85.00元、对应18%上行空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material industry is facing intense competition and significant profit pressure, with the entire industry experiencing continuous losses for over 36 months, and an average debt ratio of 67.81% among six listed companies [2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The current pre-tax cost of LFP materials has reached 15,600 CNY/ton, while the market average price is only slightly above 14,000 CNY/ton, leading to a loss of nearly 10% per ton [2]. - The overall gross profit margin for the "cathode materials" business among 20 listed companies is only 8.76%, ranking 13th among 15 sub-sectors in the lithium battery industry, while the gross profit margin for downstream power battery companies is 20.38%, indicating a profitability ratio of 2.33 times [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the combined net profit of ten listed companies in the cathode materials sector was only 552 million CNY, while a single battery manufacturer, CATL, achieved a net profit of 49.034 billion CNY, which is 88.83 times that of the ten cathode material companies combined [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand structure of the cathode materials industry has fundamentally changed since 2023, with significant capital entering upstream production while downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to overcapacity and intensified competition [6]. - Approximately 97 super projects in the cathode materials sector have been announced by domestic companies, with a total investment budget exceeding 450 billion CNY [6]. - Effective production capacity for cathode materials is projected to reach 401.01 million tons in 2024, increasing to 532.9 million tons in 2025 and 679.9 million tons in 2026, while market demand is expected to be only 390.8 million tons in 2025 and 516.8 million tons in 2026, resulting in excess capacity of approximately 142.1 million tons and 163.1 million tons, respectively [6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Future Outlook - The effective production capacity of major companies is projected to increase significantly, with Hunan Youneng leading at 145,000 tons by 2026, followed by Wanrun New Energy at 52,000 tons and Fulmin Precision at 50,000 tons [8][9]. - The total planned production capacity for LFP materials by 29 domestic companies has reached 1,064.15 million tons, with an additional 1.1 million tons planned by overseas companies, indicating a combined capacity of nearly 1,200 million tons [10]. - The industry consensus is that globalization is essential for sustainable growth, with companies needing to complete their global layouts to reshape the industry landscape [12][13].

Market Performance - As of November 14, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 0.56% compared to the previous week[29] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-shares is 3.194 billion yuan[30] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was approximately 21.38 billion yuan, down 5.89% from the previous week[30] Industry Insights - The focus on solid-state and lithium battery materials has significantly increased, with notable stock price increases in related companies such as Andar Technology (up 13.15%) and Rongyi Precision (up 20.52%)[38] - The State Council issued 13 targeted policy measures to stimulate private investment, aiming to create a more favorable environment for private enterprises[12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with high industry prosperity and scarcity, such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and energy storage[38] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various markets as of November 14, 2025, are as follows: North Exchange A-shares at 49.21, ChiNext at 43.38, Shanghai Main Board at 12.69, Shenzhen Main Board at 23.03, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 70.80[38] Risks - Key risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, and external environmental volatility, which could impact market stability[39]

Core Insights - The overall performance of A-share listed companies shows signs of recovery, with 103 companies reporting year-on-year profit growth and 101 companies reporting revenue growth as of October 21 [1] Group 1: AI Industry Performance - AI industry companies have shown remarkable performance, with Cambricon Technologies reporting a revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2386.38%, and a net profit of 1.605 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit [2] - Cambricon's third-quarter revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1332.52%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit [2] - Other AI companies like Haiguang Information and Shijia Photonics also reported significant revenue and profit growth, indicating strong market confidence in the AI sector [3] Group 2: Gold and Non-ferrous Metals Sector - Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.33% and 55.45% respectively [4] - The increase in Zijin's profits is attributed to rising gold prices and production, with gold production reaching 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year [4] - Other non-ferrous metal companies, such as Cangge Mining, also reported solid profit growth, driven by high metal prices and increased production [5] Group 3: New Energy and High-end Manufacturing - CATL reported a revenue of 283.072 billion yuan and a net profit of 49.034 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.28% and 36.2% respectively [6] - The company’s third-quarter revenue was 104.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, indicating strong performance in the new energy sector [7] - CATL's cash flow remains robust, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 80.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [7] Group 4: Challenges in Certain Sectors - Despite overall positive trends, 37 companies reported a year-on-year decline in net profit, and 39 companies saw a drop in revenue [8] - Notably, the pharmaceutical company Pianzaihuang reported a revenue decline of 11.93% and a net profit decline of 20.74%, marking its worst quarterly performance since listing [8] - Other companies, such as Rongbai Technology, also faced significant revenue and profit declines due to geopolitical impacts and increased idle capacity costs [8]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a rebound on September 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.77% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 12,937 billion yuan, a decrease of 880 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The new energy sector, particularly lithium battery electrolyte, positive electrodes, and inverters, showed strong performance, with stocks like Wanrun New Energy, Fengshan Group, and Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - Brokerage stocks saw significant gains, with Guosheng Jin控 hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high, while Huatai Securities rose over 6% [2] - The non-ferrous metals and gold sectors were also active, with stocks like Boqian New Materials and Wolong New Energy hitting the daily limit [2] Declining Sectors - Education stocks collectively experienced a sharp decline, along with coal and pork sectors showing negative performance [3]

Group 1: Research and Development Achievements - The company achieved a breakthrough sales volume of over 1,000 tons for NCA products in the first half of 2025, contributing positively to revenue and profit growth [3] - R&D expenses reached 47.57 million CNY in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.57% [10] - The company has developed LATP solid electrolyte materials with high ionic conductivity and controllable particle size, which are expected to be applied in various battery fields [5][6] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Strategy - The company’s ternary cathode materials are primarily focused on high nickel and single crystal technology, with ongoing research in medium nickel high voltage and polycrystalline materials [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the small power sector and aims to innovate and iterate its third and fourth generation NCA products [5] - The first half of 2025 saw a capacity utilization rate of 72.25% for ternary materials and 93.82% for lithium cobalt oxide, indicating no structural capacity bottlenecks [8] Group 3: Product Development and Customer Engagement - The company is developing sodium-ion battery cathode materials, with the first generation product achieving energy density exceeding 180 Wh/kg [7] - The top five customers' concentration remained stable in the first half of 2025, with significant breakthroughs in new customer development [9] - The company plans to enhance its product matrix to meet diverse customer needs as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 50% [7] Group 4: Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company has implemented a dynamic monitoring mechanism for raw material prices, ensuring sensitivity to market changes [9] - Strategies such as long-term contracts and supply chain finance have been employed to mitigate cost fluctuations, particularly for lithium carbonate [9] Group 5: Future Development Plans - The company will continue to focus on its core business of new energy battery materials, promoting the iteration and industrialization of cathode materials and solid electrolytes [10]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the quantitative theme. The content primarily focuses on the analysis of the electric vehicle industry, the investment value of the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index, and the investment value of the Hua Xia CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF[1][3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the credit rating of Wumart New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd. at AA with a stable outlook, reflecting the company's industry position, expanding production capacity, reasonable debt structure, and low financial leverage, despite challenges from declining product prices and increased receivables [3][27]. Company Overview - Wumart New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd. is rated AA/stable, and its bond "Lithium Science Convertible Bond" is also rated AA [3][27]. - The company maintains a significant position in the ternary cathode materials sector, with production capacity continuously expanding [6][13]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of 2024 are reported at 176.57 billion yuan, with total liabilities at 95.36 billion yuan and total equity at 81.21 billion yuan [7][21]. - The company reported total revenue of 179.75 billion yuan in 2022, with a net profit of 14.89 billion yuan, although recent trends show a decline in profitability due to market pressures [7][21]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is noted at 3.03 billion yuan, indicating a positive cash flow situation despite recent losses [21]. Market Position and Challenges - The company faces challenges from declining sales prices and increased competition in the cathode materials market, which has pressured profit margins [12][20]. - The company has a high dependency on key customers, which affects its bargaining power in the market [13][20]. Research and Development - The company has maintained a strong focus on R&D, achieving significant advancements in high-voltage ternary materials and solid-state battery materials, with 18 new patents granted in 2024 [18][19]. - R&D investment has been consistent, with a reported expenditure of 6.61 billion yuan in recent years, representing a stable commitment to innovation [19]. Supply Chain and Raw Materials - The company has a stable supply of raw materials, although procurement prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand [16][17]. - The concentration of suppliers is high, with the top five suppliers accounting for 56.95% of total procurement [16]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity and diversify its product offerings, particularly in lithium iron phosphate materials, which are gaining market share [12][14]. - The overall credit quality is expected to remain stable, supported by the backing of its parent company, China Minmetals Corporation, which provides significant resources and support [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is experiencing significant changes as companies in the cathode materials sector seek to adapt amidst a backdrop of overcapacity and financial losses, leading to project terminations and a shift towards more advanced materials like lithium manganese iron phosphate [1][4][10]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The effective capacity of lithium iron phosphate has increased from 500,000 tons in 2021 to 4.5 million tons by 2024, while the industry's capacity utilization rate has dropped from over 90% to 55% during the same period [4][6]. - Major companies like Hunan Yuno (湖南裕能) have maintained a relatively high capacity utilization rate, with figures of 96.82%, 89.77%, and 101.3% from 2022 to 2024, contrasting sharply with the overall industry trend [13]. Group 2: Company Actions - Zhongke Titanium White (中核钛白) announced the termination of its 500,000-ton lithium iron phosphate project, reallocating remaining funds to supplement working capital due to changes in market demand and profitability concerns [6][7]. - Other companies, including Longbai Group (龙佰集团) and Jingu Titanium Industry (金浦钛业), have also paused or terminated their investments in lithium iron phosphate projects, reflecting a broader trend of project cancellations in the industry [5][6]. Group 3: New Directions - Hunan Yuno is focusing on lithium manganese iron phosphate, which offers higher voltage, energy density, and better low-temperature performance compared to traditional lithium iron phosphate, with plans to invest 2.8 billion yuan in a 320,000-ton production project [10][12]. - The first phase of Hunan Yuno's lithium manganese iron phosphate project, with a capacity of 160,000 tons, has been completed and is currently utilized for high-pressure lithium iron phosphate production, ensuring operational efficiency [12][14].