Overview - China's economy showed resilience in Q3, with actual GDP growing by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2. Cumulatively, GDP growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that the annual growth target is achievable [1]. Economic Structure - The supply-demand structure continues to deepen, with external demand showing unexpected resilience while internal demand is slowing down. In Q3, external demand growth outpaced production and internal demand, with non-US exports supporting external demand [3][6]. - Price governance has made initial progress, with the gap between nominal and actual GDP growth narrowing slightly. Actual GDP growth exceeded nominal growth by 1.1 percentage points, while nominal GDP growth fell to its lowest level in 2023 at 3.7% [6]. - Economic data for September showed a continuous slowdown in growth rates for four months, with production accelerating but investment and consumption declining more significantly [9]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in September was 3%, slightly below market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Restaurant consumption saw a more significant drop than goods consumption, with restaurant service growth falling to 0.9% [12]. - Goods consumption growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%, with subsidized categories experiencing a more substantial decline than non-subsidized ones. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q3 was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [12]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment fell by 0.5% in September, with infrastructure investment down by 2.1 percentage points, manufacturing investment down by 0.9 percentage points, and real estate investment down by 13.9% [17]. - Real estate sales growth was affected by base disturbances, with both sales area and amount declining by 10.5% and 11.8%, respectively. Real estate investment growth hit a record low of -21.3% in September [17][19]. Trade - September saw a significant increase in import and export growth, with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year in USD terms, supported by low base effects and recovery in global economic conditions. Trade surplus continued to expand [25]. - Imports also saw a notable increase, driven by demand recovery from major projects, although sustainability remains uncertain [25]. Supply - Industrial production growth accelerated in September, with the industrial added value growing by 6.5%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The production and sales rate improved slightly to 96.7% [27][28]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed impact from "anti-involution" policies, with some industries facing production slowdowns [28]. Inflation - CPI inflation showed signs of improvement, with the decline narrowing to -0.3%. Core CPI inflation rose to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, supported by rising gold prices and improvements in some durable goods prices [29]. Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with pressures from insufficient effective demand and low price levels. The upcoming policies from the recent party meeting may provide additional support [31].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20251020 经济"温差"如何影响宏观调控？——三季 度和 9 月经济数据点评 ◼ 其他方面关注如下： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 10 月 15 日，国家统计局发布三季度和 9 月经济数据，GDP 增速维持韧 性，预计可顺利完成全年 5%增长目标。具体来看，三季度 GDP 同比 4.8%，前三季度累计同比增长 5.2%。供给侧，9 月工业增加值同比 6.5% （前值 5.2%），Wind 一致预期 5.2%，服务业生产指数同比 5.6%（前值 5.6%）。需求侧，外需再超预期，出口同比 8.3%（前值 4.3%），高于 Wind 一致预期 5.9%；内需则延续承压，社零同比 3.0%（前值 3.4%），低于 Wind 一致预期 3.1%，固投累计同比-0.5%（前值+0.5%），低于 Wind 一 致预期 0%。 ◼ （1）为何三季度 GDP 增速好于需求？Q3 固投平均同比增速从 Q2 的 2.3%降至-6.1%、社零平均同比增速从 5.4%降至 3.4%，出口持平于 Q2， 但 GDP 同比 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - In August, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded to 20.4% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 21.9 percentage points[3] - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year[7] - Revenue growth in August was 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0 percentage points[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profit and Revenue - The increase in profit growth is primarily attributed to the release of profits from state-owned enterprises, which saw a 56.8 percentage point increase to 50.0% in August[3] - The "anti-involution" effect contributed positively to profit growth in sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery, adding 3.9 percentage points[3] - Export chains and the "anti-involution" sectors remain crucial supports for overall revenue growth, with upstream manufacturing revenue growth rising by 4.7 percentage points to 5.0%[3] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - As of the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - The average turnover days for finished goods inventory remained stable at 20.5 days, indicating persistent operational pressure on enterprises[3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash flow management[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Future observations on industrial enterprise profitability will focus on the sustainability of revenue growth in the fourth quarter, especially against last year's high base[3] - Potential limitations on volume growth may reduce the space for profit growth driven by price increases through "anti-involution" strategies[3] - External economic volatility and uncertain policy responses pose risks to future economic stability[34]

Core Insights - Vietnam's total goods import and export value for the first half of September 2025 reached 39.05 billion USD, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.25% [1] - The export value was 19.2 billion USD, down 4.3% month-on-month, primarily due to significant declines in four major product categories [1] - The import value was 19.85 billion USD, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.21%, with declines concentrated in two main categories [1] Export Analysis - The decline in exports was driven by significant drops in textile and garment exports (335 million USD), footwear exports (250 million USD), mobile phones and components (120 million USD), and wood and wooden products (110 million USD) [1] - The data indicates a weakening external demand, particularly for labor-intensive products heavily reliant on large markets such as the US and Europe [1] - Foreign investment continues to play a dominant role in exports, accounting for 79.2% of total exports, highlighting a slow growth rate for domestic enterprises [1] Import Analysis - The decrease in imports was primarily focused on two categories: computers, electronic products, and components (210 million USD decrease), which, despite the largest drop, remained the highest import category; and machinery, tools, and components (120 million USD decrease) [1]

Group 1 - Vietnam imported goods worth 8.8 billion USD from the United States in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [1] - The largest category of imports from the U.S. was computers, electronic products, and components, totaling 2.5 billion USD, which is a 35.9% increase and accounts for 29% of total imports [1] - Cotton imports reached 799.4 million USD, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 79.3%, making up 9% of total imports [1] Group 2 - Notable month-on-month increases in import values were observed in several categories, including plastic raw materials (up 48.8%), fruits and vegetables (up 43.7%), wood and wooden products (up 75.5%), precious stones and metals (up 55.4%), and candy and confectionery products (up 690.3%) [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[5] - The GDP deflator index is projected to be around -0.9% for Q2, compared to -0.8% in Q1[5] Group 2: CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline widened from 3.3% to 3.6%, with production materials dropping by 4.4% year-on-year[35] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month[35] Group 3: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Actual inventory growth has increased from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[12] - The actual inventory growth in the mining and upstream manufacturing sectors has decreased significantly, impacting PPI positively when it approaches zero[13] - Among 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[17]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States have led to significant shifts in trade patterns, particularly in the oil sector, with China halting imports of U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the lowest U.S. crude oil export levels since 2020 [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, initiated by the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing trade deficits and intellectual property concerns [1][3]. - China responded with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on U.S. products, significantly impacting U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3]. - The trade conflict escalated with the U.S. targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei, leading to further tariffs on $1.2 trillion and $1.8 trillion worth of Chinese goods [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit has increased from $950.2 billion in 2018 to $1,211.75 billion in 2024, indicating that the tariffs have not achieved their intended goal of reducing the trade deficit [7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs have been passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and consumers, leading to increased prices and living costs in the U.S. [7]. - Despite facing some export pressures, China has shown resilience by expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships, maintaining stable economic growth [7]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The halt in U.S. crude oil imports by China is attributed to the U.S. tariff policies, which have diminished the price advantage of U.S. crude oil for China [8]. - The U.S. shale oil producers are projected to face losses of at least $10 billion due to the absence of the Chinese market, with U.S. crude oil exports dropping to 3.883 million barrels per day, a 4% decrease [8]. - China is actively seeking to diversify its energy imports, with agreements in place with Russia and Qatar to secure alternative oil and gas supplies [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The trade war has disrupted global supply chains, forcing multinational companies to reallocate resources and adjust production strategies, thereby increasing operational costs and risks [10]. - The unilateral actions by the U.S. have undermined the multilateral trade system, leading to slower progress in global trade negotiations and increasing trade disputes among nations [10]. - Some Southeast Asian countries have benefited from the trade war as they become alternative production bases for multinational companies, while those reliant on U.S.-China trade face economic slowdowns [10].

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者挖掘基 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 在这个乍暖还寒的春日里，海外惊雷乍起。 手机推送接连震动——特朗普超预期的关税政策似灰犀牛般横冲直撞，全球风险资产在流动性冲击下犹如惊弓之鸟，一片风声鹤唳。 北京时间4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布对等关税措施：对全球征收10%的基准关税，4月5日生效；对美国贸易逆差最高的60个国家征收额外关税，其中中国商品面临 34%的关税税率加征，将于4月9日生效。 随后，中国商务部迅速11箭齐发，以同等力度反击：对所有美国进口商品加征34%关税，限制中重稀土出口，并 对16家美国实体列入出口管制管控。 （来源：Choice） 特朗普2.0时代关税政策不仅针对中国，更将欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥甚至印度洋的无人企鹅岛纳入打击范围，试图通过"极限施压"重塑全球贸 易规则。 书房台灯的光正好点亮案头那本泛黄的《论持久战》，封面上毛主席的笔迹苍劲如铁。 此刻的贸易硝烟，恰似1930年代延安窑洞里的灯火，穿透时空照亮今日的迷雾。 01 灰犀牛事件的"已知"与"未知" ——特朗普关税的本质 关税，这个看似简单的经济工具，是进口国对跨境商品设置的通行 ...