证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 04 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 2025Q3 营收中位数同比提高，利润有所承压，新消费+出海企业整体较好 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第三十七期（20251102） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025Q1-Q3 有 50%的北交所消费服务企业实现归母净利润正增长，2025Q3 营收中位数同比 提高，归母净利润中位数同比下滑。截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，北交所消费服务产业 40 家企 业已经全部发布 2025 年三季报。从 2025Q1-Q3 营收 yoy 分布来看，处于 25%~50%营收同 比增速的企业共有 6 家，没有企业的营收 yoy 大于 50%。从 2025Q1-Q3 归母净利润 yoy 分 布来看，50%的企业在 2025Q1-Q3 实现归母净利润正增长，骑士乳业、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global stock markets, driven by valuation attractiveness and structural changes in the economy [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy of the fund manager focuses on growth style, with a balanced approach that does not exceed 25% in any single industry, emphasizing valuation and a bottom-up investment approach [2][3] - The manager's investment philosophy includes three main characteristics: a growth-oriented style, balanced investment across sectors, and a focus on valuation [2][3] Stock Selection Framework - The stock selection framework is based on three dimensions: competitive barriers, market conditions, and valuation [3][4] - Competitive barriers are prioritized, focusing on business models and corporate culture, with an emphasis on differentiation and scale effects [3] - Market conditions are particularly important for TMT companies, while valuation is assessed using a five-year implied return to evaluate cost-effectiveness [4] Market Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with a focus on technology sectors such as 3D stacking, semiconductor manufacturing, and cloud computing [4] - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from economic stabilization and a potential influx of foreign capital due to the U.S. interest rate cuts [5][6] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on identifying companies with clear alpha characteristics rather than merely chasing beta trends, particularly in the context of small-cap stocks in the Hong Kong market [6] - The manager emphasizes the importance of free cash flow and believes that the valuation of leading companies in the Hong Kong market presents strong cost-effectiveness [5][6] Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector has entered a long-term reversal phase, with significant growth potential as leading companies achieve breakeven and improve self-sustainability [6][7] - The investment strategy in the innovation drug sector is shifting towards leading companies, with a focus on business development and commercialization stages [7]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年9月4日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 市场回调下，前期弱势行业展韧性 市场回顾 今日股指放量下降，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌2.12%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升1801.71亿元。 期指方面，各品种均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1、工业和信息化部、市场监督管理总局发布关于印发《电子信息制造业2025-2026年稳增长行动方案》的通 知。 核心观点 今日股市下行幅度放大，基本符合我们昨日所提情绪回落、避险情绪升温思路，行业层面，6月20日以来上涨 幅度相对较小的银行、泛消费行业以及公用事业、交通运输等走势相对具备韧性，TMT继续领跌。今日两市 成交额维持在2.5万亿左右的水平，虽较三万亿高点有所回落，但仍是较为活跃的交易水平，股市三连阴后， 情绪面预计相对谨慎，短期反弹压力较大。不过，从盘面博弈状况来看，空头力量并不强势，表现为股指拉 出长下影线，以沪深300指数为例，20日均线形成支撑。在并没有强势利空的背景之下，交易前期利多定价 回调修正，股市预计在短时间内快速、大幅回调后，回归震荡，不必过于悲观。 策略推荐 股指日报期指市 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's Chief Equity Investment Officer, Shen Yufei, emphasizes several key investment opportunities in A-shares for August, focusing on sectors with excess return potential and driven by AI applications and consumer trends [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors with excess return opportunities based on high-quality index-weighted stocks following the bank sector's pullback in July [1] - AI applications are highlighted as a key area of focus due to ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [1] - Investment opportunities driven by events related to robotics and artificial intelligence are anticipated [1] - Opportunities in the consumer sector are identified, particularly in areas with high cuts and low valuations [1] Group 2: Market Overview - In July, both A-share and Hong Kong markets experienced broad gains, with A-shares showing characteristics of stock market competition among existing funds [1] - The A-share market benefited from trends such as "anti-involution" and resource self-sufficiency leading the market [1] - Despite potential disruptions from PMI data affecting the stock market, there are several upcoming catalysts for investment opportunities in August [1] Group 3: Upcoming Catalysts - The upcoming intensive mid-year report disclosure period may present upward surprises and bottom-up investment opportunities [1] - Industry conferences related to artificial intelligence and robotics are expected to act as catalysts for investment [1] - Major celebrations ahead of the National Day are anticipated to create additional investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The founder and CIO of Freshwater Spring, Zhao Jun, highlighted the "dumbbell" characteristic of market opportunities in the first half of the year, with a focus on value dividend assets and emerging growth assets [2][4]. Market Overview - Investor risk appetite has remained high since September 24 of the previous year, despite a stable overall index, indicating significant internal structural changes in the market [4]. - Macro factors such as domestic demand, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts have had a neutral and converging impact on the market, suggesting stable macro expectations [4]. - The economic situation shows that while government policies are aimed at stabilizing growth, consumer and business confidence still needs to recover [4]. Investment Strategy - Freshwater Spring has developed a top-down macro allocation framework to complement its bottom-up stock selection strategy, allowing for better adaptation to market changes [6]. - In a context of rising risk appetite and weak economic expectations, emerging growth assets are expected to perform well, with small-cap stocks showing superior performance [7]. Structural Opportunities - For the second half of the year, three structural opportunities are identified: 1. Revaluation of quality Chinese assets due to market changes and increased global allocation [9]. 2. Globalization of advantageous industries, focusing on leading companies with strong individual alpha [9]. 3. Opportunities in technology with a focus on domestic substitution in "choke point" areas and investments driven by breakthroughs in AI technology [9]. Sector Focus - The company is optimistic about three main sectors for the second half: 1. Consumer sector, focusing on new consumption trends and overseas expansion [10]. 2. Technology sector, with AI remaining a key investment theme, including overseas and domestic computing power [10]. 3. Automotive industry, emphasizing high-end, intelligent, and overseas markets, particularly in the new energy vehicle supply chain [10]. Risk Awareness - The company emphasizes the need to be cautious of potential risks, including the possibility of fundamental improvements lagging behind market optimism and external shocks [10].