2026 年 3 月全国两会展望 证券研究报告 政策点评 / 2026.01.12 分析师 窦子豪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525040003 douzh@ctsec.com 分析师 张尤 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070001 zhangyou@ctsec.com 1. 《产业前瞻系列 1："十五五"城市更新 掘金蓝图》 2026-01-10 2. 《外部因素推高物价》 2026-01-09 3. 《 委 内 瑞 拉 对 原 油 的 意 义 》 2026-01-06 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 核心观点 2026 年全国两会召开在即，我们从以下四个方面对本次两会重点议题及 2026 年全年政策取向和经济走势进行前瞻性研判： 相关报告 财政政策：2025 年中央经济工作会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策，优化 推进"两新两重"。为落实会议部署，发改委、财政部优化升级"两新"补 贴范围和标准，新增老旧小区加装电梯、养老院设备和智能眼镜等领域，并 提前下达 625 亿元超长期特别国债予以支持；与此同时，约 2200 亿元资金 安排投向"两重"项目建设。在此背景下，我们预计 2026 年财政有望更加 积极精 ...

从时间窗口来看，1月历来是A股市场的"数据验证期"，宏观经济数据的集中披露往往会引发市场波动 加大。当前市场正处于这一关键周期，后续将陆续迎来PMI、社融、消费等核心经济数据的发布，这些 数据将直接验证经济复苏的成色，进而影响连阳行情的持续性。如果数据表现不及预期，可能会加剧市 场短期波动，诱发技术性调整；若数据超预期则有望为连阳行情注入新动能，市场对数据的敏感反应必 然导致短期波动加剧。历史经验显示，数据验证期内市场往往呈现出震荡加剧的特征，此次15连阳过程 中的午后跳水，或正是这一周期属性的提前显现。 （来源：市场星报） A股三大指数周四走势分化，沪指震荡整理，日线收出"15连阳"，深证成指与创业板指走势较弱。截至 收盘，沪指跌0.07%，收报4082.98点；深证成指跌0.51%，收报13959.48点；创业板指跌0.82%，收报 3302.31点。沪深两市成交额达到28265亿元，较周三缩量552亿元。个股方面，上涨股票数量超过3700 只，逾110只股涨停。 A股市场延续震荡分化格局，上证指数在低开基础上一度翻红冲高，尽管午后多次出现跳水走势并短暂 翻绿，但依托低开后的缓冲空间，最终成功收复部分失地 ...

报告显示，前沿科技赛道潜在独角兽企业占比超九成，近七成企业拥有授权发明专利。潜在独角兽企业 群体中前沿科技企业占比达91.5%，较2019年的56.4%大幅提升。近七成企业拥有授权发明专利，总量 1.3万件，企均PCT申请6件。 潜在独角兽企业集聚于芯片、创新药等赛道，其中芯片、创新药赛道企业数量排在前两位，均超百家。 具身智能、合成生物、氢能与核聚变、量子计算、脑机接口五大未来产业共集聚48家潜在独角兽企业。 日前，长城战略咨询发布了《GEI中国潜在独角兽企业研究报告2025》。报告显示，截至2024年底，中 国潜在独角兽企业总量达816家，其中新晋企业255家。我国潜在独角兽企业群体发展呈现出数量持续增 长、前沿科技主导、资本人才汇聚等鲜明特征。 潜在独角兽企业是独角兽企业的"后备军"。近6年来，我国潜在独角兽企业数量从296家增至816家，总 量增长约1.8倍，新晋企业每年保持在200家以上，累计入榜企业近1700家，形成了庞大且优质的科创企 业储备池。 报告显示，2024年有五成潜在独角兽企业（409家）新获得融资，总额近130亿美元，同比增长18.7%。 芯片、新型半导体、机器人、新能源汽车、新材料 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights China's significant advancements in scientific research and technology, emphasizing the successful operation of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) as a historic milestone in particle physics [1] - It discusses the enhancement of foundational research capabilities, showcasing achievements in various fields such as gravitational wave detection and quantum computing [2][3] - The article also outlines the development of new productive forces, particularly in high-end equipment and advanced manufacturing, driven by technological innovation [4][5][6] - It emphasizes the growth of emerging industries, including 5G technology and renewable energy, contributing to global carbon reduction efforts [7] - The article notes the deepening of science and technology system reforms, which have fostered innovation and supported young scientific talent [9][11] Group 1: Major Scientific Achievements - The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) has become the world's first large-scale neutrino facility, marking a significant achievement in particle physics [1] - The Ali Gravitational Wave Detection Experiment has successfully captured images of radiation from celestial bodies, advancing the understanding of the universe's origins [2] Group 2: Foundation Research Enhancements - China's foundational research has seen a notable increase in high-impact papers, accounting for approximately one-third of the global total, with a significant rise in the number of high-citation scientists [3] - The number of foundational research personnel has grown from 472,000 in 2021 to 575,000 in 2023, indicating a robust talent pool [3] Group 3: New Productive Forces Development - The introduction of the world's first 17-inch rollable lightweight terminal by BOE Technology Group exemplifies innovation in portable technology [4][5] - The "Jinghua" shield tunneling machine has set a record for monthly excavation, showcasing advancements in high-end equipment [6] Group 4: Emerging Industries Growth - China has established around 4.6 million 5G base stations, leading the world in technology and user adoption [7] - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China have surpassed 40 million, maintaining the global lead for ten consecutive years [7] Group 5: Science and Technology System Reforms - The number of innovative clusters in China accounts for nearly one-fourth of the global total, reflecting the country's leadership in innovation [9] - The proportion of young scientists leading key national research projects has reached 43.3%, indicating a focus on nurturing young talent [11]

Core Points - The article announces the upcoming Second Global Medical Technology Conference scheduled for July 17, 2025, at the Zhongguancun Exhibition Center in Beijing, expecting around 500 attendees [3][8] - The conference will feature various discussions on topics such as AI in medical devices, wearable brain-machine interfaces, and trends in the medical device industry for 2025 [4] Group 1 - The conference is organized by SYMedTech and the Zhongguancun Alliance for New Life Sciences [3] - Collaborating organizations include Qidi Star, He Yuan Technology Incubator, and Zhongguancun Science City CGT Industry Incubator [2] - The agenda includes presentations from industry experts on innovative medical technologies and investment strategies [4] Group 2 - The event will also include a roundtable discussion focusing on multi-modal data infrastructure and AI applications in medicine [4] - Other topics of discussion will cover the development of the pulsed electric field ablation industry and AI's role in reshaping brain health [4] - The article provides a registration link with a promotional offer for attendees [8]