Industry Insights - The consumer discretionary sector shows a positive short-term trend, but the long-term outlook remains cautious. April data across sub-sectors improved compared to March, with the May Day holiday data maintaining or improving on this trend due to factors such as increased holiday periods, better weather, low base effects, government subsidies for appliances, and strong inbound tourism [2] - The outlook for May and Q2 is slightly positive, driven by structural rebounds in certain consumer sub-sectors, rational competition, favorable weather, increased subsidies from platforms like JD and Taobao, and sustained consumer power from inbound tourism [2] - The report suggests it is a good time to increase positions in leading companies within the sector [2] Company Analysis - BeiGene (百济神州) achieved its first quarterly GAAP profit, marking a significant milestone. In Q1 2025, product revenue reached $1.11 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase, with the drug Zebrutinib generating $792 million in sales, up 62% year-on-year [9] - The company reported a GAAP operating profit of $11 million and a net profit of $1 million in Q1 2025, with a significant improvement in non-GAAP operating profit compared to the previous year [9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 rose to 85.1%, with a notable decrease in SG&A and R&D expense ratios, indicating ongoing cost control improvements [9] - The R&D pipeline for 2025 is expected to see key advancements, including ongoing clinical trials for various cancer treatments, with significant data releases anticipated [10] - The target price for BeiGene is maintained at $359.47, reflecting a positive outlook on revenue growth and R&D progress [10]

Macro Economic Overview - To counter the impact of tariffs, China has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at boosting the stock and real estate markets. This policy will moderately ease liquidity and credit supply, encouraging positive market sentiment, although it cannot fully offset the economic impact of tariffs [2] - The report anticipates that the tariff impacts could reduce China's GDP and CPI growth rates by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. It is expected that GDP growth will slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.5% in Q2, with a slight rebound to 4.7% in the second half of the year, resulting in an annual growth rate of 4.8% [5] Industry Insights - In the equipment manufacturing sector, global machinery manufacturers are assessing the impact of US tariffs, with most expecting effects to become apparent starting in Q3. Companies like Komatsu are predicted to face significant challenges due to these tariffs [5] - The Chinese insurance industry is set to see an acceleration of long-term investments as regulatory bodies announced a series of financial policies. This includes expanding the scope of long-term investment trials and adjusting risk factors for stock investments, potentially injecting over 150 billion yuan into the market [5] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 23.00, representing a 37% upside potential [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 46% upside [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, suggesting a 24% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 157.00, reflecting a 27% upside potential [6] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 625.00, indicating a 28% upside [6]

2025 年 5 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 ◼ 美国经济 - 关税短期升成本作用超过降需求效应 美国 4 月服务业 PMI 超预期回升，商业活动延续扩张，需求小幅改善，关税 冲击尚未带来需求紧缩效应，反而通过刺激抢购囤货而带动零售、物流、仓 储和贸易活动；物价指数大幅反弹，与关税推升消费者通胀预期相一致。制 造业 PMI 收缩幅度扩大，生产指数大幅降至 2020 年 5 月以来新低；关税扰 动供应链导致交付时间变长，价格指数创近 3 年新高，企业库存下降。 招银国际研究部 数据公布后，美国 10 年国债利率上升 4bp 至 4.36%，市场对全年降息幅度预 期下降 3bp 至 76bp。短期内，关税推升成本作用超过降低需求效应，通胀反 弹风险大于失业上升风险，美联储在 5、6 月份可能保持政策利率不变。下半 年，随着需求收缩效应超过成本上升作用，就业市场可能明显放缓，通胀可 能见顶回落，美联储可能在 7 月或 9 月降息一次，11 月或 12 月再降一次。 （链接） 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.51% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.57% [1][3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed with a 3.79% increase year-to-date [1] Industry Insights Internet Industry - Companies with defensive attributes and those benefiting from domestic demand are expected to perform well under current market conditions [4] - Recommended stocks include NetEase (NTES US) and Tencent Music (TME US) for their growth potential in gaming and music sectors [4] - Ctrip (TCOM US) and Meituan (3690 HK) are highlighted for their resilience in domestic and outbound travel demand [4] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. has announced "reciprocal tariffs," which may lead to additional tariffs on the semiconductor sector [5] - The trend towards domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting companies like Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and North Huachuang (002371 CH) [5] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic replacement capabilities, especially in AI and analog semiconductor sectors [5] Insurance Industry - Recent regulatory changes allow for an increase in equity investment limits for insurance funds, potentially injecting an estimated CNY 1.66 trillion into the stock market [6][7] - The new regulations raise the equity asset allocation limit to 50%, which could significantly enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies [6][7] - The core equity assets of listed insurance companies are expected to increase, reflecting a shift towards higher-yielding stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [8] Engineering Machinery Industry - Strong sales growth in excavators and wheel loaders was reported, with domestic sales increasing by 29% and 23% year-on-year, respectively [8] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) and Zoomlion (1157 HK) are recommended due to their strong market positions and sales performance [8] Company Analysis Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company faces challenges due to new U.S. tariffs, which could significantly impact its revenue, as the U.S. market accounts for nearly 30% of its total income [9][10] - The rating has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of CNY 51, reflecting concerns over future profitability [9][10] Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile (175 HK), Xpeng Motors (XPEV US), and Tencent (700 HK), all showing significant upside potential based on current valuations [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the majority of the stocks listed, indicating a potential upside of over 15% within the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a basket of 23 long positions that achieved an average return of 8.5%, outperforming the MSCI China Index, which returned 6.3% [7]. - Among the 23 stocks, 4 recorded returns of 20% or more, and 11 exceeded the benchmark return [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Stock Recommendations - The report includes several stocks with their respective ratings and target prices, such as: - Geely Automobile (175 HK) with a target price of 24.50 and a current price of 19.00 [4]. - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) with a target price of 24.56 and a current price of 16.00 [4]. - Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of 126.68 and a current price of 99.80 [4]. - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a target price of 38.51 and a current price of 35.84 [4]. New Additions and Removals - New additions to the stock recommendations include Kuaishou (1024 HK) and Trip.com Group (TCOM US), both rated as "Buy" [5]. - Stocks removed from the recommendations include China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and NetEase (NTES US) [5]. Performance Review - The report indicates that the selected stocks have shown resilience and growth, with a significant portion outperforming the market index [7].

Macro Economic Overview - The report forecasts the USD/CNY exchange rate to reach 7.48, 7.33, and 7.55 by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with Bloomberg's median market predictions being 7.45 and 7.35 for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2025, but may slow down again in 2026, with no intention from policymakers to seek a significant depreciation of the RMB to boost exports [5] Company Analysis Bilibili (BILI US) - Bilibili reported Q4 2024 revenue of 7.73 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of 453 million RMB, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - The company anticipates continued robust revenue growth in its advertising and mobile gaming segments, leading to an upward revision of FY25-FY26 earnings forecasts by 7-13% [6] NetEase (NTES US) - NetEase's Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 1.4% to 26.7 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations, while operating profit increased by 13.9% to 7.8 billion RMB [6] - The company expects new game launches to drive revenue growth in FY25, with a slight downward adjustment of total revenue forecasts by 2-3% [6] Alibaba (BABA US) - Alibaba's Q3 FY25 revenue reached 280.2 billion RMB, a 7.6% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations [7] - The company is optimistic about EBITA growth prospects for FY26, driven by increased adoption of its "full-site push" strategy and narrowing losses in its AIDC segment [8] Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Yancoal reported a net profit of 1.2 billion AUD for 2024, a 33% decline but 8% above expectations, and announced a final dividend of 0.52 AUD per share [8] - The company maintains production and cost guidance for 2025 similar to 2024, with increased capital expenditure anticipated [8] Weir Semiconductor (603501 CH) - Weir Semiconductor is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications in edge devices and the penetration of smart driving systems in vehicles [8] - The company expects revenue to grow by 27% in 2025, reaching 33 billion RMB, driven by sales growth in mobile and automotive CIS [8]

2025 年 2 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 昨日（2 月 18 日）中国股票冲高回落。港股涨幅收窄，资讯科技、可选消费 与医疗保健板块领涨，地产与能源板块下跌，南向资金持续净买入 224 亿港 元。A 股回调，机器人、AI 医疗等近期热点概念股下跌，银行等防御性板块 逆势走强。中概股多数下跌。中国股票估值仍有吸引力，2025年恒生指数与 恒生科技指数动态 PE 约 10 倍和 18.5 倍，沪深 300 指数和创业板指数动态 PE 约 13.2 倍和 23.5 倍，而 MSCI 日本指数动态 PE 约 15.5 倍，MSCI 印度 指数和标普印度科技指数动态 PE 约 21 倍和 27.6 倍。 欧股再创新高。军工股持续大涨，特朗普希望减少美国对欧洲的防卫开支， 要求北约成员国将国防预算从 GDP 的 2%提高至 5%，投资者预期欧洲将增 加军费开支以自主承担更多安全责任。银行股领涨，估值优势和股票回购等 因素支撑银行股。年初以来，部分国际资金从美国科技股切换至欧洲股票， 令欧股跑赢美股。目前欧股仍有估值吸引力，欧元区斯托克指数 20 ...