文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 摘要 事件 ：12月27日统计局公布11月工企效益数据，11月工企营收累计同比1.6%、前值1.8%；利润累计同比0.1%、前值1.9%。11月末，产成品存货同比4.6%、前 值3.7%。 核心观点：利润继续走低，源自其他损益回落的短期拖累及成本压力等中期约束。 营收：工企营收增速有所回升，木材、皮革制鞋、仪器仪表行业营收增幅较大。 11月，工企营收当月同比回升3.1pct至-0.3%。分行业看，木材、皮革制鞋行 业营收增幅较大。 库存：实际库存增速小幅上行，其中中下游库存有所回升。 11月，工企名义库存有所回升，同比较上月+0.9pct至4.6%；剔除价格因素后，实际库存当月同比 为7.7%。 风险提示 总体：11月利润同比继续走低，主因其他损益对利润同比的拉动明显回落。 11月工业企业利润当月同比回落4.6个百分点至-13.4%。从影响因素看，利润率对 利润增速的拉动明显回落，背后更多是其他损益项（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项支出）等短期指标对利润同比的拉动较前月下行9.4个百分点至-5.1%。 成本率、费用率对利润同比的拉动仍在负数区间，分别较前月回升0. ...

宏 观 研 究 工企效益数据点评 2025 年 12 月 27 日 利润走弱的两大缘由 ——工业企业效益数据点评（25.11） 事件：12 月 27 日统计局公布 11 月工企效益数据，11 月工企营收累计同比 1.6%、前值 1.8%；利润累计同比 0.1%、前值 1.9%。11 月末，产成品存货同比 4.6%、前值 3.7%。 ⚫ 核心观点：利润继续走低，源自其他损益回落的短期拖累及成本压力等中期约束。 总体：11 月利润同比继续走低，主因其他损益对利润同比的拉动明显回落。11 月工业企 业利润当月同比回落 4.6 个百分点至-13.4%。从影响因素看，利润率对利润增速的拉动明 显回落，背后更多是其他损益项（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项支出）等短期指标对 利润同比的拉动较前月下行 9.4 个百分点至-5.1%。成本率、费用率对利润同比的拉动仍 在负数区间，分别较前月回升 0.8、1.2 个百分点至-2.4%、-5.6%。 行业：个别行业的利润走弱对本月利润的拖累大，背后或也与其他收益等短期指标走低有 关。11 月，酒和饮料利润增速大幅回落(-93.4pct 至-90.4%)，单个行业利润拖累整体回 落 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 摘要 事件 ：12月27日统计局公布11月工企效益数据，11月工企营收累计同比1.6%、前值1.8%；利润累计同比0.1%、前值1.9%。11月末，产成品存货同比4.6%、前 值3.7%。 核心观点：利润继续走低，源自其他损益回落的短期拖累及成本压力等中期约束。 利润：工企利润大幅回落，主因营业利润率走低。 11月，工业企业利润当月同比下行4.6pct至-13.4%。 其中，营业利润率当月同比较上月回落5.4pct 至-11.5%。量价方面看，工业增加值当月同比较上月回落0.1pct至4.8%，PPI当月同比较上月回落0.1pct至-2.2% 营收：工企营收增速有所回升，木材、皮革制鞋、仪器仪表行业营收增幅较大。 11月，工企营收当月同比回升3.1pct至-0.3%。分行业看，木材、皮革制鞋行 业营收增幅较大。 库存：实际库存增速小幅上行，其中中下游库存有所回升。 11月，工企名义库存有所回升，同比较上月+0.9pct至4.6%；剔除价格因素后，实际库存当月同比 为7.7%。 总体：11月利润同比继续走低，主因其他损益对利润同比的拉动明显回落。 11月工业企业利润 ...

Economic Performance - Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, matching expectations but down from 5.2% in the previous quarter[1] - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5%, exceeding the expected 5.2%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, against an expectation of 0%[1] Consumption and Retail - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1%[1] - Service consumption remained resilient, with service retail growth rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%[3] - Below-limit retail sales weakened, dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in September saw a slight recovery, up 0.7 percentage points to -6.5% year-on-year[4] - Real estate development investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 13.9%[4] - Manufacturing investment showed a slight increase, with a monthly year-on-year growth of -1.5%[4] Real Estate Market - The completion rate surged by 22.9 percentage points in September, reaching 1.5%[3] - New housing sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%[1] - Housing prices in 70 cities showed a slight recovery, but remained negative on a month-on-month basis[3] Outlook and Risks - Economic pressures are increasing, but policies are actively countering these effects, suggesting resilience in Q4[4] - Potential risks include external environment changes and slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies[4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in profit growth is largely attributed to low base effects and other short-term factors, while cost pressures remain high [2][11][66] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In August, industrial profits increased by 21% year-on-year to 19.8%, driven by short-term factors such as expenses and other gains [2][11][66] - The profit margin improvement is mainly due to a notable rise in expenses and other gains, which increased by 3.8% to 2.2% and 24.8% to 18.3% respectively [2][11][66] - The revenue growth for industrial enterprises improved slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in August, supported by significant recoveries in sectors like chemical fibers and non-metallic products [5][50][66] Group 2: Cost Pressure and Inventory - Cost pressures for industrial enterprises have not eased, with the overall cost rate at 85.6%, indicating a relative high compared to previous years [3][28][66] - The actual inventory growth showed a slight recovery, with nominal inventory decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year to 2.3%, while actual inventory increased by 0.3% to 7.2% [7][55][66] - Upstream inventory remains at historical highs, while midstream and downstream inventories are relatively low [7][55][66] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The beverage and alcohol sector saw a dramatic profit increase of 234.8% year-on-year, significantly contributing to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [2][17][67] - The chemical and metallurgical sectors also contributed positively to profit recovery, with respective profit increases of 58.5% and 52.9% [46][67] - State-owned and joint-stock enterprises experienced substantial profit growth, with year-on-year increases of 53.1% and 30.9% respectively [52][66] Group 4: Future Outlook - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries are expected to alleviate cost pressures, with a focus on the effectiveness of these policies in the coming months [4][39][66] - The ongoing recovery in domestic demand is anticipated to support a continued upward trend in corporate profitability, despite potential negative impacts from rising upstream prices [4][39][66]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in profit growth is largely attributed to low base effects and other short-term factors, while cost pressures remain high [2][11][67] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In August, industrial profits increased by 21.9% year-on-year, reaching 20.4%, primarily due to an improvement in operating profit margins [40][68] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises rose by 20.2% month-on-month to 17.5% in August, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.7% to -2.9% [40][68] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises improved, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2% to 2.3% in August, driven by significant recoveries in sectors like chemical fibers and non-metallic products [49][68] Group 2: Cost and Inventory Insights - The cost pressure for industrial enterprises remains elevated, with an overall cost rate of 85.6%, which is relatively high compared to previous years [27][67] - The actual inventory growth rate slightly rebounded, with nominal inventory decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year to 2.3%, while actual inventory increased by 0.3% to 7.2% [54][68] - Upstream inventory levels are at historical highs, while midstream and downstream inventories are relatively low [54][68] Group 3: Industry-Specific Performance - The beverage and alcohol sector saw a remarkable profit growth of 234.8% year-on-year, significantly contributing to the overall profit increase of industrial enterprises [17][66] - Other sectors such as electric power supply, coal mining, and non-ferrous processing also contributed positively to profit recovery, with respective contributions of 4.9%, 3%, and 2.2% [17][66] - The chemical fiber and non-metallic products sectors experienced substantial revenue growth, with increases of 22.2% and 7.4% respectively [49][68] Group 4: Future Outlook - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries are expected to alleviate cost pressures, with a focus on the effectiveness of these policies in the coming months [4][38] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to gradually reduce rigid cost pressures, while domestic demand is expected to recover [4][38] - However, attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of rising upstream prices on corporate profitability [4][38]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Insights - In August, industrial enterprises' profit increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 21.9% to 20.4%[4] - The profit margin improvement was primarily driven by a rise in operating profit margin, which increased by 20.2% to 17.5%[4] - Cumulative revenue for industrial enterprises showed a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, consistent with the previous value[6] Group 2: Cost and Inventory Analysis - The cost rate for industrial enterprises remained high at 85.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% to -3.4% in profit contribution from costs[23] - Actual inventory growth slightly rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% to 7.2%[46] - The accounts receivable ratio rose to 14.6%, indicating a prolonged collection period[30] Group 3: Sector Performance - The beverage and alcohol sector saw a dramatic profit increase of 234.8% to 226.8%, contributing 7.8% to overall industrial profit growth[15] - Chemical fiber and non-metallic products also experienced significant revenue growth, with increases of 22.2% and 7.4% respectively[41] - State-owned and joint-stock enterprises reported substantial profit growth, with increases of 53.1% and 30.9% respectively[44]

Profit Performance - In August, industrial profits increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 21.9% to 20.4%[36] - The profit margin improved due to a rise in operating profit margin, which increased by 20.2% to 17.5%[36] - The profit growth was influenced by low base effects and strong performance in the capital market[2] Revenue Trends - Cumulative revenue for industrial enterprises in August showed a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, consistent with the previous value[6] - Revenue from the chemical fiber and non-metallic products sectors saw significant increases, with year-on-year growth of 22.2% and 7.4% respectively[41] - Actual revenue growth, excluding price factors, rose by 0.5% to 5.2% in August[19] Cost Pressures - Industrial enterprises faced high cost pressures, with the cost rate at 85.6%, remaining at a relatively high level historically[21] - The cost contribution to profit year-on-year decreased by 9.3% to -3.4%[21] - Specific sectors like petrochemicals and metallurgy reported cost rates of 85.8% and 86.7%, reflecting increases compared to the previous month[21] Industry Contributions - The beverage industry saw a remarkable profit increase of 234.8% to 226.8%, contributing significantly to overall industrial profit growth[14] - Other sectors such as electric power supply and coal mining also contributed positively, with profit increases of 4.9% and 3% respectively[14] Future Outlook - New policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries have been introduced since September, which may alleviate cost pressures[34] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to gradually reduce rigid cost pressures, supporting a long-term trend of profit recovery[34] - However, attention is needed on the potential negative impact of rising upstream prices on corporate profitability[34]