（原标题：消费股企稳反弹 行业估值仍处历史低位） 从基本面来看，我国消费市场长期增长韧性凸显。"十四五"时期，我国社会消费品零售总额从2020年的 39.1万亿元提升至2024年的48.3万亿元，年均增长5.5%，预计今年全年社会消费品零售总额有望突破50 万亿元大关，同期消费对经济增长的年均贡献率达到60%左右，充分印证了消费作为经济增长重要引擎 的核心地位。 从资本市场来看，大消费板块今年以来明显滞涨，万得大消费指数年内涨幅仅为5.34%，不但远远低于 科技、新能源等热门指数涨幅，甚至低于上证指数、深证成指等大盘指数。截至12月22日，该指数最新 市盈率为23.31倍，显著低于近10年28.56倍的平均市盈率。 从机构预测来看，万得大消费指数成份股及万得内需升级指数成份股2026年、2027年整体净利润增幅均 有望保持双位数。 | | | | 获机构密集调研且融资资金大幅加仓的消费股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代理 | 简称 | 年内涨跌幅 (%) | 年内机构 调研家数 | 年内融资余额 增幅(%) | 行业 | | 300124 | 汇 ...

近期，大消费板块企稳反弹迹象明显。上周五(12月19日)，万得大消费指数上涨1.33%，大幅跑赢上证 指数，本周一该指数继续走高，收盘上涨0.13%。 从细分板块来看，乳业、零售等板块均大幅上涨，12月以来万得零售指数累计上涨7.44%，万得乳业指 数累计上涨5.35%。 从股票型ETF资金流向来看，12月以来，涵盖消费、可选消费、旅游、食品饮料、主要消费等主题的20 余只ETF资金净流入超过22亿元，富国中证旅游主题ETF、汇添富中证主要消费ETF及嘉实中证主要消 费ETF净流入金额均超过1.5亿元，其中富国中证旅游主题ETF资金净流入近14亿元。 以旅游为主题的股票型ETF，本月以来均获得资金净流入。除上述富国中证旅游主题ETF外，华夏中证 旅游主题ETF资金净流入0.16亿元。 当前，扩大内需、提振消费已成为推动经济增长的关键着力点。此前召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持 内需主导，建设强大国内市场"排在明年经济工作首位。东莞证券指出，在宏观环境波动的背景下，扩 大内需、提振消费已然成为经济增长的重要抓手。 从基本面来看，我国消费市场长期增长韧性凸显。"十四五"时期，我国社会消费品零售总额从2020年的 3 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月22日电，临近传统消费旺季，多地相继出台促消费务实举措，通过丰富产品种类、创新消费场景等方式，更好满足城乡居民节日需求。 从资本市场来看，大消费板块呈现出企稳反弹的迹象。上周五（12月19日），万得大消费指数上涨1.33%，大幅跑赢上证指数。从细分板块来看，乳业、零 售、饮料制造等概念板块均大幅上涨。贵州茅台作为大消费的代表，自12月10日以来，累计涨幅达到2.36%，位居白酒前列。 按照机构调研情况来看，汇川技术、迈瑞医疗、海康威视机构调研家数位居前3名。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今年以来涨跌幅 | 年内机构调 | 12月18日融资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | 研数(家) | 较去年末变动 | | 300124 | 汇川技术 | 22.91 | 1654 | 116.38 | | 300760 | 迈瑞医疗 | -20.65 | 989 | 89.84 | | 002415 | 海康威视 | -1.39 | 519 | 46.26 | | 603501 | 豪威集团 | 19.76 | 340 | 54.55 | ...

临近传统消费旺季，多地相继出台促消费务实举措，通过丰富产品种类、创新消费场景等方式，更好满足城乡居民节日需求。 大消费板块企稳反弹 从资本市场来看，大消费板块呈现出企稳反弹的迹象。上周五(12月19日)，万得大消费指数上涨1.33%，大幅跑赢上证指数。从细分板块来看，乳业、零 售、饮料制造等概念板块均大幅上涨。贵州茅台作为大消费的代表，自12月10日以来，累计涨幅达到2.36%，位居白酒前列。 从股票型ETF资金流向来看，12月以来，涵盖消费、可选消费、旅游、食品饮料、主要消费等主题的20余只ETF资金净流入超过22亿元，富国中证旅游主 题ETF、汇添富中证主要消费ETF及嘉实中证主要消费ETF净流入金额均超过1.5亿元，其中富国中证旅游主题ETF资金净流入近14亿元。 以旅游为主题的股票型ETF本月以来均获得资金净流入。除上述富国中证旅游主题ETF外，华夏中证旅游主题ETF资金净流入0.16亿元。 从基本面来看，我国消费市场长期增长韧性凸显。据央视财经报道，"十四五"时期，我国社会消费品零售总额从2020年的39.1万亿元稳步提升至2024年的 48.3万亿元，年均增长5.5%；预计今年全年社会消费品零售总 ...

中银国际表示，11月乘用车出口同比增48.7%至62.4万辆，明显胜于预期。该行预计，明年将延续强劲 的出口增长趋势，并可能胜于预期。另外，注意到部分投资者忧虑关税等贸易或非贸易壁垒对明年中国 乘用车出口的潜在不利影响，该行认为，去年第四季至今年上半年整体出口放缓确实受到欧盟反补贴关 税等贸易保护主义蔓延及重点市场需求下滑的干扰，但中国品牌迅速对出口车型、区域、方式等进行适 应性调整，带动乘用车出口量自年中起重回快速增长轨道，这也充分体现了中国车企出海能力的全面提 升与多元出口市场的需求韧性。 中银国际发布研报称，11月乘用车批发量同比及环比均小幅增长，但终端零售延续10月以来的下降趋 势，库存进一步攀升。该行考虑到去年基数效应和两新政策进一步收紧，预计12月零售同比跌幅或进一 步扩大。但认为因政策扰动导致第四季的零售终端数据"异常"降温并不能反映当前国内消费者真实的购 车意愿与购车需求。该行相信，如果"两新"政策优化尽快落地，年底缺乏"翘尾"效应或将有利于明年车 市实现开门红。此外，考虑到明年内需主导基调明确，认为市场对明年汽车消费政策不宜过度悲观。 该行预计，今年全年乘用车销量预计将同比增长10%，首次突 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to policy expectations from the "14th Five-Year Plan," with technology growth likely to continue outperforming in Q4 [1] - The main sectors attracting net inflows include PCB, LED, OLED, photovoltaic, and charging piles, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [1] - The domestic embodied intelligence sector has surpassed a total market value of 3 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential as capital accelerates for domestic new forces [3] Group 2 - The dairy market is stabilizing post-holidays, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, while deep processing and overseas markets show rapid growth potential [5] - The price of beef cattle is expected to experience upward pressure due to a projected decline in supply by over 10% since 2024, indicating a potential price rebound [5] - The global investment community is regaining confidence in AI, with storage chips being favored as a critical material, leading to anticipated price increases that may last until mid-next year [5] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to enter a "structural market second half" focused on high-quality development, with long-term funds likely to concentrate on industries with strategic support value [9] - The ability of the ChiNext index to stabilize above 3200 points will be crucial for determining whether new highs can be achieved by year-end, with ongoing positive sentiment in technology stocks [9] - Investors are advised to maintain a medium to high position structure, focusing on advanced manufacturing, technology hardware, green energy, and digital economy sectors driven by policy [9]

Investment Focus - The main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period are achieving significant progress in high-quality development and substantial improvement in technological self-reliance [1][7] - Macro policy will focus on two main directions: building a modern industrial system through technological innovation and driving long-term growth through domestic-demand upgrading [1][7] Technological Innovation - Emphasis on enhancing self-sufficiency in key technologies and accelerating the development of globally competitive emerging pillar industries [2][8] - Priority areas include new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, as well as future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications [2][8] - The "AI+" initiative will lead in accelerating the application of new productivity forms and business models, enhancing the national innovation system's efficiency [2][8] Domestic Demand - Policy priorities are shifting from aggregate stimulus to endogenous growth, with a focus on launching a "boost consumption" program to generate new demand [2][9] - Improving the social safety net aims to release consumption potential, including measures for livelihood support, employment stabilization, social welfare enhancement, and family support [2][9] - New growth drivers such as green consumption, the silver economy, and the childcare economy will be cultivated to enhance domestic circulation's momentum and resilience [2][9] Real Estate Sector - The meeting called for promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, regulating local governments' economic promotion behaviors, and expanding effective investment [2][10] - The overall strategy aims to stabilize the property market and mitigate cut-throat competition, ensuring macro stability under a dual-engine structure powered by technology and domestic demand [2][10] Market Outlook - After recent corrections, market lows are beginning to offer attractive entry opportunities, with a modest rebound in Chinese equities under policy boosts [3][11] - The performance gap between the CSI 300 and CSI 500 has narrowed, indicating upside potential for large caps, particularly in consumption and property sectors benefiting from domestic-demand policies [3][12] - Investors may also consider increasing exposure to the non-bank financial sector to capture opportunities from subsequent market expansion [3][12] - For technology stocks, a secondary pullback may present a re-entry opportunity, especially for Hong Kong tech stocks that have corrected significantly since October [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of Japan's economy and its ability to adapt to challenges such as trade wars, aging population, and low consumption, drawing parallels to China's current situation and suggesting lessons that can be learned from Japan's experience [3][6][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - China, as the world's factory, is facing trade wars, financial conflicts, and technological competition, which may force it to upgrade its technology and domestic demand [3]. - Japan experienced a similar situation in the 1980s and 1990s, leading to a significant transformation in its economy, resulting in a dual economic engine: one focused on globalization and the other on domestic consumption [3][5][10]. Group 2: Lessons from Japan - Japan's response to economic challenges involved creating new service industries to meet the needs of its aging population, which is referred to as "internal demand Japan" [4][6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer needs and adapting business strategies accordingly, as demonstrated by successful Japanese companies [14][15]. Group 3: Business Strategies - Japanese brands have thrived by focusing on customer experience and meeting real demands rather than following trends, as seen in companies like 7-11 and WORKMAN [15][17]. - The concept of "grounded logic" is highlighted, where businesses engage directly with consumers to understand their needs, leading to innovative product development and effective supply chain management [14][16][18]. Group 4: Event and Learning Opportunity - The article promotes a learning trip to Japan, scheduled from November 30 to December 5, aimed at exploring the operational strategies of leading Japanese brands during low-growth periods [10][11][19]. - Participants will gain insights into how Japanese companies have navigated economic challenges and adapted their business models to sustain growth [11][20].

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a morning rally on October 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the previous high of 3936.58 points, reaching a new high of 3946.16 points during the session [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.3%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.09%, with a total trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan [1] Sector Highlights - The storage chip sector saw significant gains, with companies like Changjiang Storage and Puran Co. hitting new highs [1] - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a strong surge, with multiple stocks, including Dahua Intelligent, achieving consecutive gains and over ten stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The computing hardware sector also showed upward movement, with Zhongji Xuchuang reaching a new high [1] Investment Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to accelerate with the increasing frequency of domestic commercial rocket launches and a faster IPO process for related companies, indicating a growing market [2] - The storage chip market is on an upward cycle, driven by increased capital expenditure from major internet companies like Alibaba and ByteDance, which is expected to boost domestic manufacturers' market share [3] Institutional Outlook - Zhongyin Securities noted that a resonance between policy and economic bottoms is forming, which may support the upward movement of A-share indices [4] - Long-term capital, particularly from public funds and insurance, is expected to concentrate on industries with strategic support value [4] - Foreign institutional investors are showing increased interest in A-shares, with QFII becoming a significant shareholder in multiple companies [4] Foreign Investment Sentiment - Major foreign investment firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have expressed optimism about the Chinese market, predicting a slow bull market with a potential 30% increase in major indices by the end of 2027 [5][6] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that global investors' allocation to Chinese equities remains low, suggesting room for growth in investment [6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high of 3936.58 points, reaching a new annual high of 3946.16 points, with over 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rising [1] - The storage chip sector showed significant activity, with companies like Xiangfarm Chip and Puran Co. seeing gains of over 17% and hitting the daily limit, respectively [1] - Central China Securities indicated that the current memory cycle is on the rise, driven by increased capital expenditure from internet companies like Alibaba and ByteDance in AI infrastructure, suggesting investment opportunities in the domestic memory industry chain [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities noted that satellite IoT is linking commercial aerospace with the low-altitude economy, forming a gradually complete industrial chain, enabling real-time tracking and data transmission for low-altitude aircraft [2] - Zhongyin Securities pointed out that the resonance of policy and economic bottoms is forming, which may support the upward movement of the A-share market, with new productive forces like technological self-reliance and green transformation expected to guide future investment trends [2] - Long-term funds, especially public offerings, insurance funds, and state-owned capital, are anticipated to concentrate on industries with strategic support value [2]