Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] Core Views - The current copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price still cannot recover continuously. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price remains in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper price operations, with the buying range roughly between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,600 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,420 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 180 yuan/ton, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decline from the previous day. The spot price was 79,480 - 79,690 yuan/ton. The downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is low, but holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downward space for spot premiums is expected to be limited [2] Important Information Summaries - **Tariffs and Fed News**: Trump said trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed, and he will soon impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture, possibly up to 200%. Trump removed Fed理事 Lisa Cook, but Cook said Trump has no right to do so, and the Fed spokesman said the president can only remove a governor for "just cause" [3] - **Mine - end News**: Capstone Copper's Pinto Valley copper mine in Arizona obtained Copper Mark certification. First Quantum Mining shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 - billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [4] - **Smelting and Import News**: US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper to China through Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US dropped sharply, but overall imports remained stable. The net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds declined, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is still strong [5] - **Consumption News**: The domestic refined copper rod enterprise's operating rate rose 1.20 percentage points to 71.80% last week, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously - overhauled enterprises. Downstream consumption is weak, and the overall market is lackluster. The raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% to 3.38 million tons, and the finished - product inventory decreased by 5.44% to 6.61 million tons [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons on August 25 [7] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - on - dips hedging with a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton - **Arbitrage**: Suspended - **Options**: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports a significant increase in precious metal prices, particularly gold, with notable movements in both spot and futures markets [1] Gold Market - Spot gold rose by 0.76% to $3,391.35 per ounce, experiencing a notable surge from around $3,350 to above $3,385 [1] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.65%, reaching $3,439.60 per ounce, trading within a range of $3,396.10 to $3,440.80 during the day [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up by 1.94%, marking a record high at 244.06 points [1] Silver Market - Spot silver saw a slight increase of 0.07%, priced at $38.6079 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.10% to $38.665 per ounce [1] Other Precious Metals - COMEX copper futures decreased by 0.16%, settling at $4.4705 per pound [1] - Spot platinum rose by 0.52% to $1,353.07 per ounce, and spot palladium increased by 0.57% to $1,103.12 per ounce [1]

来源：金融界AI电报 周一（8月25日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.19%，报3365.59美元/盎司，日内大部分时间低位震荡，随着 美股开盘出现一波上涨行情——美股尾盘回吐过半。COMEX黄金期货跌0.25%，报3409.90美元/盎司。 费城金银指数收涨0.07%，报239.40点，继续创收盘历史新高，但全天波动幅度有限。 现货白银跌 0.86%，报38.5561美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货跌1.34%，报38.530美元/盎司；11月合约跌1%，报39美 元。COMEX铜期货大致持平，报4.4595美元/磅；11月合约涨0.12%，报4.5120美元。现货铂金跌 1.26%，报1343.67美元/盎司；现货钯金跌2.91%，报1096.16美元/盎司。 ...

沪铜日评20250825: 国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-14 | 收盘价 | 78690 | 150.00 | 78540 | 78950 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 37910 | 43058 | 51734 | -5.148.00 | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | -7,132.00 | 120902 | 128034 | 152341 | | 库存(吨) | 241 48 | 25157 | 24434 | -1.009.00 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78830 | 78800 | 79435 | 30. 00 | | | 沪铜基差 | 260 | 140 | 485 | -120.00 | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 厂州电解铜现货升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 0. 00 | | (现货与期货 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [6][44] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating and slightly weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 78,490 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 79,290 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices fluctuated, with contract prices ranging from 9,671 - 9,791 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In July, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.38% compared to the previous month. From January to July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 35 had year - on - year growth in added value [16] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted on the 22nd that despite current inflationary risks, the Fed may cut interest rates in the coming months [43] 3. Spot Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,825 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 79,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The electrolytic copper premium was around 135 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 37.65 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 3.76 cents/pound. In July 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month, but a 14% year - on - year increase [25] - As of July 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly automobile output was 2.5102 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [30] 5. Inventory Situation - As of August 22, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,698 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons from the previous week. As of August 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 7.26%. As of August 21, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,160 tons from the previous trading day [34] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 800 tons from the previous week [34] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the content in the macroeconomic aspect and supply - demand and inventory parts, including industrial added - value growth, Fed's potential interest - rate cut, copper smelting fees, refined copper output, copper product and automobile output, and inventory changes [43] 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended downwards. The market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut situation ahead of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The fundamental situation has no significant change, and the market is waiting for new drivers. There is support at 78,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Market sentiment: The Jackson Hole meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell is expected to make cautious decisions. The improvement of the Russia - Ukraine situation has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. Concentrate port inventories are at a five - year low. TC/RC fees are stabilizing and rising. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still in the red. The high sulfuric acid price supports smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production is expected to be stable in the short term, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still drags down demand, with a 12% year - on - year decline in real estate development investment and a 4% decline in new commercial housing sales area from January to July. However, the power grid and new energy sectors bring demand resilience. SHFE inventories increased this week, indicating short - term weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened lower and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,052 to 94,551 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,444 to 92,496 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 155 yuan/ton, and in South China is 50 yuan/ton. On August 18, 2025, the LME official price was 9,730 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 103.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventories remained unchanged at 25,500 tons. As of August 18, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventories increased by 7,500 tons to 88,200 tons. LME copper inventories decreased slightly by 450 tons to 155,200 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased by 1,875 short tons to 269,000 short tons [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in August may decrease month-on-month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month-on-month. The US port inflation rebound reduces the Fed's expected number of interest rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 50,116 lots, down 1,618 lots; the open interest was 152,557 lots, up 216 lots; the inventory was 24,560 tons, up 126 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180 yuan, down 255 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) on August 15, 2025, was 9,760 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 155,800 tons [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 15, 2025, was 4.489 US dollars, down 0.01 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 267,195 tons, up 400 tons [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia, the second - largest copper producer in Africa, had a copper production of about 439,644 tons in the first six months of 2025. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production of about 224,000 tons, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. Four producers had problems in the second quarter. To reach the 1 - million - ton target set by the government this year, the production in the second half of the year needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry News - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. plans to invest 197.66065 million yuan to relocate and upgrade its existing project to build an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project in Jiangxi Qianshan County Industrial Park [3] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build an annual 500,000 - ton steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 - ton copper - aluminum recycling project in De'an County, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was accepted for public notice, with a public notice period from August 14 to August 27, 2025 [5] Copper Product Industry Analysis - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, affecting the capacity utilization rate of copper products. The capacity utilization rate of different copper products may change in August. For example, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, copper foils, and brass rods may increase, while that of recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Core Insights - Gold prices increased slightly, with spot gold rising by 0.22% to $3355.74 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up by 0.24% to $3407.10 per ounce [1] - Silver prices showed a stronger performance, with spot silver increasing by 1.56% to $38.5072 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 1.47% to $38.560 per ounce [1] - Copper futures experienced a decline, falling by 0.62% to $4.4975 per pound [1] Gold Market - Spot gold price reached $3355.74 per ounce, reflecting a 0.22% increase [1] - COMEX gold futures traded at $3407.10 per ounce, marking a 0.24% rise [1] Silver Market - Spot silver price rose to $38.5072 per ounce, an increase of 1.56% [1] - COMEX silver futures were priced at $38.560 per ounce, up by 1.47% [1] Copper Market - COMEX copper futures decreased to $4.4975 per pound, showing a decline of 0.62% [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].