金价为何再爆发？ 过去三年，黄金和白银价格均上涨了一倍多。摩根士丹利将2025年第四季度黄金目标价设定为3800美元/盎司，白银的目标价定为40.9美元/盎司，而且存 在超预期上行的可能性。 在连续数月窄幅震荡之后，国际金价再破纪录！此外，昨夜美欧股市集体走跌，中国资产逆势上涨。 周二(9月2日)，国际金价刷新历史新高，纽约期金一度站上3600美元/盎司，现货黄金站上3530美元/盎司。年初至今，金价累计涨幅超30%。现货白银价 格亦大涨，自2011年以来首次突破40美元/盎司大关，今年以来现货白银价格已攀升逾40%。 | W | | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | 3597 | | 昨结 3592.2 | | 사찰 | 3600.0 | | | +5.5 | +0.15% | 总手 2201 | | 现手 | | 3 | | 最高价 | 3601.4 | 特 仓 | 0 | 6 | | 831 | | 最低价 | 3596.1 | 增 仓 -36.06万 | | K ...

多家国际投行在研究报告中，上调了对中国经济全年增长的预测，同时对中国资产的配置建议也从中性转向了"超配"。 近期，多家外资金融机构发布对中国市场的观点和研报，普遍看好中国市场前景。高盛近期发布研报，维持对中国股票"增持"立场；渣打银行在 《2025年下半年全球市场展望》中维持对中国股票的"超配"评级。 而对于即将到来的第四季度，外资金融机构普遍持乐观态度。近期，标普国际信用评级公司发布报告，决定维持中国主权信用评级"A+"和展望"稳 定"不变。展望未来，外资认为中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大，支撑高质量发展的积极因素不断积累。 来源：央视财经 责编：李丹 校对：苏焕文 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 渣打银行北亚区首席投资总监 郑子丰： 有许多因素支持我们对中国资产的高权重配置，包括外部和国内因素。从外部看，是出于对中国将受贸易紧张 局势影响的预期，但实际情况是，中国较好应对了这种情况。从国内看，我们看到了更多旨在稳定经济增长状况的政策，包括最近宣布的新生儿补 贴。因此，随着我们进入第四季度，我们相信应该会有更 ...

Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic and financial implications of Trump's "Great Reset," focusing on the need to address wealth inequality and high government debt through a rebalancing of capital structures and inflationary measures [3][4]. Group 1: Trump's Economic Framework - Trump is seen as attempting to tackle two fundamental issues: the significant wealth gap and the historically high government debt burden [3][4]. - The "Great Reset" aims to adjust the relationship between industrial and financial capital, promoting a shift from financialization to re-industrialization [4][18]. - Without substantial productivity improvements, the policy path is likely to lead to global capital rebalancing, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [4][31]. Group 2: Debt and Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. government debt held by the public is approaching 100% of GDP and is projected to rise to 117% over the next decade, with a persistent deficit rate around 6% [22][26]. - The article highlights the potential for liquidity "drain" and increased volatility in financial markets following the resolution of the debt ceiling, which could trigger risks for high-leverage and credit investors [4][28]. - The anticipated supply shock of U.S. Treasury bonds post-debt ceiling resolution may lead to rising interest rates and liquidity challenges, exacerbating risks in the credit market [28][30]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Asset Reallocation - The article predicts the end of the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative in the stock market since 2012, with European and emerging markets, particularly China, poised for a trend revaluation [5][39]. - A shift in market style is expected, favoring sectors representing industrial capital such as industrials, materials, energy, and consumer goods over those representing financial capital [5][36]. - The article suggests that the valuation of U.S. stocks may decline, with a transition towards value-oriented investments outperforming growth stocks [36][39]. Group 4: Implications for Global Capital Flows - The "Great Reset" is likely to lead to a rebalancing of global capital flows, with a potential outflow from U.S. assets as the dollar weakens [33][39]. - The article emphasizes that the depreciation of the dollar may manifest more significantly against a basket of physical assets, including commodities and strategic resources [33][34]. - Emerging markets, especially China, are expected to benefit from a weaker dollar, which could enhance local demand and attract foreign investment [39].