12月19日，在华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办的「Alpha峰会」上，Clocktower首席策略师王凯文发表题为《地缘宏观范式迁移下的全球 资产再配置》的演讲。 他表示，美国新版《国家安全战略》是一份由前对冲基金研究主管撰写的"重磅文件"，首次官方承认美国单极霸权、自由国际主义及新保守主义 同时"死亡"，标志着美国进行战略收缩，并接受多极化与势力范围现实。这一根本性地缘转变，正通过"离岸平衡"策略、传统盟友恐慌性财政扩 张、与全球人口结构变化导致的"储蓄干涸"相结合，重塑全球宏观与资产定价逻辑。 他认为，美元已步入史上幅度最大的熊市，未来5-8年贬值幅度可能接近40%，这迫使全球资本必须从过度集中的美元资产中撤离。 在这一框架 下，严重低配的中国资产或成为未来十年最大的"逼空"机会，而黄金牛市未终，白银潜力更为可观。 展望2026年，市场需警惕通胀反复下美联储政策转向的风险，美股则已处于由盈利驱动但估值停滞的"牛市最后一程"。 以下为演讲精彩观点： 1.美元步入"史上最大熊市"：地缘格局巨变、美国不负责任的顺周期财政扩张，以及最终必然的债务货币化路径，将导致美元信用崩 溃。与1970年代不同，此次地缘 ...

过去一年，市场并不平静。 有人看到的是指数反弹，有人感受到的是结构分化；有人开始重新谈论"投资中国"，也有人已经在讨论"2026年该怎么配置"。 在这样一个阶段，单点判断已经越来越难，真正重要的，是 如何把变化放进同一张框架里理解 。 在2025雪球嘉年华上，来自不同背景的嘉宾，从宏观、资产、行业到具体配置，反复指向了同一个关键词： 重构 。 01 雪球创始人、董事长方三文： 三个"再平衡"正在发生 雪球创始人、董事长方三文为本次大会致开幕词，为我们锚定"破局重构"的思考原点。以下是演讲内容： 我是方三文，也是雪球上的"不明真相的群众"。 首先问个老问题，今年赚了钱的人举手？我听我们同事说，今年报名参加嘉年华的球友有5000多人，去年3000多人，前年2000多人。这可以让我们 感受到，资本市场的热度在缓慢地上升。但是我们也发现了一个很有趣的现象，就是报名参加嘉年华的，大部分都是老的用户，也就意味着这些用 户是从市场不那么景气甚至比较低迷的时代穿越过来的。正是因为你们穿越了周期，所以现在你们才能骄傲地把手举起来，"我又赚钱了"！ 市场是跌宕起伏的。我们回首过去两三年发现，有一些非常有趣的变化。 02 全球资本 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - International gold prices have reached record highs, with New York futures hitting $3600 per ounce and spot gold surpassing $3530 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1][4] - Silver prices have also surged, breaking the $40 per ounce mark for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [1][4] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a significant catalyst for the rise in gold prices, with historical data showing an average increase of 6% in gold prices within 60 days of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle [4] - Other contributing factors include increased gold reserves by central banks, a declining US dollar index, and rising US national debt, which collectively enhance market demand for safe-haven assets [4][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global bond market is facing challenges, with rising yields despite many countries entering a rate-cutting cycle, leading investors to seek non-dollar assets like gold [6][7] - The structural narrative for investing in gold remains strong, with ongoing purchases by foreign exchange reserve managers and increasing holdings in global gold ETFs [8] - The potential for further inflows into gold is supported by concerns over the long-term credibility of the US dollar and the attractiveness of gold as a safe financial asset [8][10] Group 4: Foreign Investment in Chinese Assets - Foreign investment attitudes towards Chinese assets are shifting, with significant inflows into A-shares noted since August, marking a reversal from previous trends [10] - Data indicates that foreign investors have net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, with a notable increase in May and June [10]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple international investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth for the year, shifting their asset allocation recommendations for China from neutral to "overweight" [1][3]. Group 1: Positive Outlook on Chinese Assets - Several foreign financial institutions have expressed optimism about the Chinese market, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an "overweight" stance on Chinese stocks [1]. - Standard Chartered Bank has also kept its "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks in its "2025 Global Market Outlook" report [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting High Allocation to Chinese Assets - Chief Investment Officer of Standard Chartered Bank for North Asia, Zheng Zifeng, highlighted both external and domestic factors supporting high allocation to Chinese assets, including China's effective response to trade tensions and recent domestic policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, such as new birth subsidies [3]. - The expectation of more policy support as the fourth quarter approaches is also noted [3]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - International investment banks are actively investing in the A-share market, with Goldman Sachs reporting that hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks [5]. - Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicates that foreign capital net increased holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, with significant net purchases of $18.8 billion in May and June [5]. Group 4: Credit Ratings and Economic Resilience - S&P Global Ratings has maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic fundamentals [7]. - Foreign investors view China's economic foundation as stable, with strong advantages, resilience, and significant potential, which supports the accumulation of positive factors for high-quality development [7].

Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic and financial implications of Trump's "Great Reset," focusing on the need to address wealth inequality and high government debt through a rebalancing of capital structures and inflationary measures [3][4]. Group 1: Trump's Economic Framework - Trump is seen as attempting to tackle two fundamental issues: the significant wealth gap and the historically high government debt burden [3][4]. - The "Great Reset" aims to adjust the relationship between industrial and financial capital, promoting a shift from financialization to re-industrialization [4][18]. - Without substantial productivity improvements, the policy path is likely to lead to global capital rebalancing, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [4][31]. Group 2: Debt and Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. government debt held by the public is approaching 100% of GDP and is projected to rise to 117% over the next decade, with a persistent deficit rate around 6% [22][26]. - The article highlights the potential for liquidity "drain" and increased volatility in financial markets following the resolution of the debt ceiling, which could trigger risks for high-leverage and credit investors [4][28]. - The anticipated supply shock of U.S. Treasury bonds post-debt ceiling resolution may lead to rising interest rates and liquidity challenges, exacerbating risks in the credit market [28][30]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Asset Reallocation - The article predicts the end of the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative in the stock market since 2012, with European and emerging markets, particularly China, poised for a trend revaluation [5][39]. - A shift in market style is expected, favoring sectors representing industrial capital such as industrials, materials, energy, and consumer goods over those representing financial capital [5][36]. - The article suggests that the valuation of U.S. stocks may decline, with a transition towards value-oriented investments outperforming growth stocks [36][39]. Group 4: Implications for Global Capital Flows - The "Great Reset" is likely to lead to a rebalancing of global capital flows, with a potential outflow from U.S. assets as the dollar weakens [33][39]. - The article emphasizes that the depreciation of the dollar may manifest more significantly against a basket of physical assets, including commodities and strategic resources [33][34]. - Emerging markets, especially China, are expected to benefit from a weaker dollar, which could enhance local demand and attract foreign investment [39].