证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 1、《净利润断层策略本周超额收益 1.31%》2026-02-23 2、《量化择时周报：缩量信号如期出 现，聚焦科技与周期》2026-02-23 3.44%》2026-02-08 报告摘要 两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 上周周报（20260223）提示：综合来看，市场整体在海外影响以及日历效应的影响下， 风险偏好有望抬升，同时成交金额也到达我们预期的阶段地量水平，市场有望延续节 前反弹节奏。最终 WIND 全 A 全周上涨 2.75%，并创出新高。市值维度上，本周代表 小市值股票的中证 1000 上涨 4.34%，中盘股中证 500 指数上涨 4.32%，沪深 300 上 涨 1.08%，上证 50 上涨 0.17%;本周中信一级行业中，涨幅靠前的行业包括钢铁 ...

量化择时周报：两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《净利润断层策略本周超额收益 1.31%》2026-02-23 2、《量化择时周报：缩量信号如期出 现，聚焦科技与周期》2026-02-23 3.44%》2026-02-08 报告摘要 | 中泰量化周观点:两会来临,短期关注政策驱动 | | --- | | 风险提示 . | | 市场环境变动风险,模型基于历史数据。 . | | 图表 | 1 | ： | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 | ： | PB 估值水平 4 | 两会来临，短期关注政策驱动 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 上周周报（20260223）提示：综合来看，市场整体在海外影响以及日历效应的影响下， 风险偏好有望抬升，同时成交金额也到达我们预期的阶段地量水平，市场有望延续节 前反弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market has experienced a significant inflow of funds post-Spring Festival, with a net inflow of 3.937 billion yuan from February 24 to February 25, reversing the net outflow trend observed in the five trading days prior to the holiday [1][2]. Fund Flow Analysis - The ETF market saw a stark contrast in fund flows before and after the Spring Festival. Prior to the holiday, the market experienced a net outflow of 14.369 billion yuan due to liquidity management and profit-taking sentiments [2]. - Post-holiday, the return of wealth management funds and the release of allocation demand contributed to the 3.937 billion yuan net inflow [2]. - Broad-based ETFs have been particularly attractive, with significant inflows into the Southern CSI 500 ETF (1.522 billion yuan), Southern CSI A500 ETF (372 million yuan), and Huaxia CSI 500 ETF (215 million yuan), totaling 2.109 billion yuan [2]. Sector-Specific Inflows - Technology-related ETFs have emerged as key areas for fund inflows, driven by high growth expectations. Notable inflows include the Satellite ETF (483 million yuan), Huaxia CSI Robotics ETF (332 million yuan), Tianhong CSI Robotics ETF (331 million yuan), and E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (319 million yuan), collectively attracting 1.465 billion yuan [3]. Institutional Insights - Institutions view the post-holiday fund flow characteristics as indicative of a trend where ordinary investors are increasingly using ETFs for convenient allocation, reflecting professional funds' judgment on market opportunities [4]. - The sustained inflow into broad-based ETFs suggests a preference for diversified allocation to mitigate risks associated with single sectors, while the activity in technology ETFs highlights expectations for supportive policies and technological breakthroughs in sectors like semiconductors and AI [4]. - The concentration of funds in broad-based and technology-themed ETFs aligns with a "steady foundation + elastic offense" investment strategy, resonating with the core role of technology in economic transformation [4]. Investor Recommendations - For ordinary investors, it is advised to select products based on their risk tolerance: those with lower risk tolerance may consider broad-based ETFs for core holdings, while those seeking higher elastic returns could allocate to technology sector ETFs, ensuring to manage position sizes to avoid over-concentration in a single sector [5]. - Overall, the positive fund movement in ETFs post-Spring Festival injects liquidity support into the market and provides clear directional guidance for investors to seize future opportunities [5].

Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a slight upward trend amidst a sideways movement, with a focus on mid-cap stocks while maintaining operational rhythm [2] - The index showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery in February, aligning with the expectation of a "sideways trend with slight strengthening" [2] - The improvement in domestic risk assessment is seen as a long-term confidence restoration rather than a catalyst for a strong market rally [2] Style Strategy - Mid-cap blue chips are trending positively, while technology growth stocks are expected to experience rotation [3] - Chemical and non-ferrous metals mid-cap blue chips have continued to lead the market in February, consistent with previous assessments since November [3] Industry Strategy - The transportation sector is witnessing high passenger flow and diversified demand, with significant inter-regional mobility becoming the norm [4] - As of now, railway passenger volume has increased by 4.1% year-on-year, while road mobility has risen by 5.1%, both lower than the 5.3% increase in civil aviation passenger volume [4] - The preference for self-driving travel remains high, with 86% of road mobility attributed to non-commercial vehicles, reflecting consumer demand for comfort and in-depth travel experiences [4] Thematic Strategy - The commercial aerospace sector presents rebound opportunities, particularly in inflation-related leading companies [5] - Despite lower-than-expected launch numbers in February, the commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to rebound due to ongoing domestic and international industry development [5] - Key developments in the commercial aerospace sector, including the potential for intensive verification of reusable rocket tests from March to June, are expected to catalyze growth [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the A-share market in China, focusing on market trends, sector performance, and investment opportunities post-Chinese New Year [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market exhibited a strong oscillation pattern before the Chinese New Year, with the Shanghai Composite Index peaking at 4,142 points, aligning with the expected range of 4,000 to 4,150 points [2][3]. - Major indices failed to break above the 5-week moving average due to large funds suppressing market movements, indicating a preference for maintaining a range-bound market rather than a rapid upward trend [3][5]. - The market is currently in an ABC adjustment structure, with the B phase ongoing, suggesting that a clear upward movement is unlikely until the C phase is completed [9][14]. Sector Performance - Sectors that performed well before the holiday include technology growth, computing, electronics, media, and telecommunications, which are closely related to the mainstream market trends since September 24, 2022 [4]. - The consumer sector, particularly retail and general consumption, saw significant capital outflows, reflecting a lack of investor confidence in economic recovery [7]. - The food and beverage sector is not expected to experience a major upward trend, with a clear bearish pattern observed [8]. Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment strategies are recommended, focusing on sectors with lower price levels and potential for quick gains, such as brokers, building materials, and banks [20]. - The technology growth sector, including AI applications and robotics, may present localized investment opportunities, but significant upward trends are not anticipated [18]. - The first quarter of 2026 may see the non-ferrous metals sector forming a significant bottom, with a notable increase in the index by 97.5 points in 2025 [21]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a high-risk preference in the short term, with potential for continued focus on technology growth sectors, although caution is advised due to the last trading day before the holiday [6][15]. - New funds are advised to wait for clearer investment opportunities post-March, as the current environment does not favor long-term investments [19][16]. - The overall market structure is likely to remain balanced, with a mix of growth and value styles emerging [30]. Other Important Insights - The recent appreciation of the RMB, surpassing 6.89, is seen as beneficial for the A-share market, supporting a positive outlook for capital markets [11]. - The upcoming political events, such as the two sessions in March, are anticipated to provide clearer investment signals [16]. - The historical context of spring market movements suggests a potential for short-term volatility, but with a cautious approach to avoid chasing high prices [28][31]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the A-share market and relevant sectors.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 11, with the three major indices fluctuating, and a slight net outflow of 236 million yuan from stock ETFs [1][2] - The ChiNext index saw significant net inflow of 1.14 billion yuan, while the CSI A500 index experienced net outflow [1][2] - The satellite industry and robotics sectors attracted notable capital inflows, while the new energy and dividend sectors faced outflows [1][2] Group 2 - As of February 11, the total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 4.19 trillion yuan, with an overall net outflow of 236 million yuan for the day [2] - The ChiNext ETF led the inflows with a net inflow of 1.14 billion yuan, primarily driven by E Fund's ChiNext ETF, which saw inflows of 1.065 billion yuan [2][4] - The satellite industry also showed strong inflows, with a net inflow of 890 million yuan, including 394 million yuan into E Fund's satellite ETF [2][4] Group 3 - Over the past five days, the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF received over 6 billion yuan in inflows, while the SGE Gold 9999 Index ETF saw inflows exceeding 4.2 billion yuan [3] - The wide-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 755 million yuan, with the CSI A500 ETF leading the outflows at 1.605 billion yuan [6][8] - The new energy sector had the highest outflow among thematic sectors, with a net outflow of 820 million yuan [7] Group 4 - The latest scale of E Fund's ETFs reached 661.02 billion yuan, with a total net inflow of 1.53 billion yuan on the previous trading day [4][5] - The robotics ETF and free cash flow ETF from Huaxia Fund saw significant inflows of 280 million yuan and 212 million yuan, respectively [5] - The market outlook suggests a focus on core growth assets, with stable earnings expectations and a potential return of foreign capital, indicating strong allocation properties in a volatile environment [9]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a seven-day rise, but trading volume continued to shrink, leading to a significant "seesaw" effect in capital allocation and accelerated sector rotation [1] - Ahead of the Spring Festival holiday, funds are divided into two camps: one showing cautious sentiment favoring dividend and free cash flow ETFs, while the other is positioning for a rebound after the holiday [1] - Major ETFs that received significant net subscriptions from external funds include the ChiNext ETF and the CSI 1000 ETF, with industry-specific ETFs like satellite, robotics, AI, semiconductor equipment, and chemical ETFs also seeing strong inflows [1] Group 2 - According to Wang Bo from Huaxia Fund, the reduction in trading volume before the holiday is normal, and there is a general optimistic expectation for the February market, although a short-term recovery in market sentiment will take time [2] - The investment strategy suggested includes maintaining a balanced allocation across technology, cyclical, and consumer sectors through broad-based ETFs like the Hu-Shen 300 ETF [2] - The recent increase in January PPI by 0.4% month-on-month has catalyzed price increases in the chemical sector, while positive developments in robotics and AI models are also emerging [1][2]

Group 1 - The Satellite ETF (563230.SH) experienced a decline of 1.33% on February 11, 2026, with a trading volume of 576 million yuan [1] - The fund saw a net inflow of leveraged funds amounting to 10.84 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - Over the past four days, the total inflow of leveraged funds into the fund reached 25.89 million yuan, also placing it at the top among comparable funds [1]

Group 1 - Satellite concept stocks declined, with XW Communication falling over 4%, Aerospace Electronics down over 3%, and China Satellite, Shanghai Hanxun, and Zhenlei Technology each dropping over 2% [1] - Satellite-related ETFs experienced a decline of approximately 2% [1] Group 2 - Several brokerages indicated that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, commercial aerospace will become a key driver for high-quality development of new productive forces and technology in China [2] - To secure valuable orbital and frequency resources, the number of satellite launches in China is expected to accelerate further by 2026, with private commercial rocket companies likely to play a significant role [2] - The investment opportunities in China's satellite internet industry chain are anticipated to grow by 2026 [2]

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 2月6日（上周五），当日获得资金大幅回流的宽基ETF增多，包括：中证500ETF、沪深300ETF、 中证1000ETF等；行业主题ETF方面，净流入的有：化工ETF、卫星ETF、电池ETF；黄金剧烈波动之 际，也有小幅净流入。 港股方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）、恒生互联网ETF（513330.SH）、港股通科技ETF基 金（159101.SZ）获得资金连续第五日大额净申购。 其中，恒生科技指数ETF、恒生互联网ETF近五日均获得累计净申购超52亿元，净流率分别为 4.84%、7.42%，显示场外大资金踊跃布局港股科技超跌修复行情。 华夏基金投资者回报研究中心王波表示：消息面利空消化后，港股科技板块具备博弈超跌修复的基 础。历史上此类事件冲击在港股并不鲜见，均是短期因素：例如2025年4月、10月，港股科 ...