东北证券发布研报称，短期来看，周大福(01929)作为行业龙头，能够凭借规范的采购渠道和强大的品 牌议价能力传导成本压力，减低黄金增值税扰动;中长期看，国际化进程加速，公司计划继续拓展大洋 洲、加拿大及中东等新市场，为公司品牌转型打造第二增长曲线。预计公司2026/2027/2028可实现归母 净利润75.7/86.1/97.3亿元，对应PE15.1/13.3/11.8X。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 东北证券主要观点如下： FY26业绩业绩稳健复苏 公司FY26上半年(截至2025年9月30日)业绩展现稳健复苏，营业额达389.86亿港元，与去年同期基本持 平;受益于费用率的改善，经营溢利实现同比增长0.7%至68.23亿港元，经营溢利率达17.5%，创近五年 新高;计提黄金借贷合约亏损31.43亿港元后，归母净利润25.34亿港元，同比基本持平。 截至FY26上半年期末内地共有5,663个零售点，得益于产品结构优化和金价上涨的正面影响，期间同店 销售实现2.6%的增长。(1)直营店：报告期内实现营收约102.4亿港元，同比增加8.4%;占内地总营收 31.8%，同比增加4.5%。期间直营门店减少16家，Q ...

智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研报称，短期来看，周大福(01929)作为行业龙头，能够凭借规范的采 购渠道和强大的品牌议价能力传导成本压力，减低黄金增值税扰动;中长期看，国际化进程加速，公司 计划继续拓展大洋洲、加拿大及中东等新市场，为公司品牌转型打造第二增长曲线。预计公司 2026/2027/2028可实现归母净利润75.7/86.1/97.3亿元，对应PE15.1/13.3/11.8X。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 门店网络提质增效，渠道优化成果显著 截至FY26上半年期末内地共有5,663个零售点，得益于产品结构优化和金价上涨的正面影响，期间同店 销售实现2.6%的增长。(1)直营店：报告期内实现营收约102.4亿港元，同比增加8.4%;占内地总营收 31.8%，同比增加4.5%。期间直营门店减少16家，Q1/Q2同店销售分别为-3.3%/+7.6%。(2)加盟店：期内 实现营收约219.6亿港元，同比减少5.5%;占内地总营收的68.2%，同比下降4.5%。期间加盟门店数量减 少595家，Q1/Q2同店销售分别录得0%/+8.6%。(3)线上渠道保持强劲增长，内地电商业务零售值同比增 长27.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for FY2026H1, but operating profit showed a steady improvement, indicating a recovery trend in its performance [1][2]. Revenue Performance - For FY2026H1, the company's revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to HKD 38.986 billion, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.823 billion, with an operating margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 17.5% [1]. - In mainland China, revenue fell by 2.5% to HKD 32.194 billion, with retail channel revenue increasing by 8.1% and wholesale channel revenue decreasing by 10.2% due to store integration [1][2]. Channel Strategy - The company focused on optimizing single-store operations and reported strong growth in e-commerce sales, which increased by 27.6% year-on-year [2]. - As of the end of the reporting period, the company operated 5,663 retail stores in mainland China, with 73% being franchise stores, and closed 611 stores since the beginning of the fiscal year [2]. Product Performance - The sales revenue from priced gold jewelry increased by 9.3%, accounting for 29.6% of total revenue, while revenue from gold jewelry priced by weight decreased by 3.8% [2]. - The company emphasized product optimization, with notable sales growth in its signature product series, achieving HKD 3.4 billion in sales for the Chuanxi, Chuanfu, and Palace Museum series, a 48% increase year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 6.5% to HKD 6.792 billion, benefiting from a recovery in retail consumption and foot traffic [3]. - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Oceania, while enhancing the retail experience through store upgrades and new openings [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 3% for FY2026 and a 37% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - Projections for net profit for FY2026-2028 are HKD 80.92 billion, HKD 92.01 billion, and HKD 103.90 billion, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19 times for FY2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for FY26H1 but showed resilience in net profit, with strong growth in retail sales and a positive outlook due to rising gold prices [1][4]. Financial Performance - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 38.99 billion, down 1.1% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.82 billion, and net profit rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.53 billion [1]. - The interim dividend declared was HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The company expects net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 to be HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion, respectively, with a current market capitalization corresponding to a FY26 PE of 17.5X [1][4]. Regional Performance - In FY26H1, revenue from mainland China was HKD 32.19 billion, down 2.5%, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets was HKD 6.79 billion, up 6.5% [1]. - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 2.6% for direct stores and 4.8% for franchise stores, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a 4.4% increase, with Hong Kong at 1.8% and Macau at 13.7% [1]. Product and Channel Structure - The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, while revenue from gold jewelry decreased by 3.8% in FY26H1 [1][2]. - The proportion of revenue from priced jewelry rose to 29.6%, up from 26.9% in FY25H1, with high-margin products contributing HKD 3.4 billion, accounting for 8.7% of total revenue [2]. - The retail value in first-tier cities grew by 8.7%, with the proportion of retail value in first and second-tier markets increasing from 55.3% in FY25 to 64.7% in FY26 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company closed 611 underperforming stores, ending FY26H1 with 5,663 retail points in mainland China, while maintaining 88 stores in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - The gross profit margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising gold prices and lower product category margins [3]. - The SG&A ratio improved by 1.2 percentage points to 14.0%, leading to an operating profit margin of 17.5%, the highest in five years [3]. Recent Sales Data - From October 1 to November 18, 2025, overall retail value grew by 33.9%, with mainland China up 35.1% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 26.5% [4]. - Same-store sales in mainland China surged by 38.8%, with priced jewelry up 93.9% and gold jewelry up 23.0% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's mid-term performance shows signs of recovery with improved sales and profitability metrics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - For FY26H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.99 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, but a significant improvement compared to previous periods [1] - Operating profit reached HKD 6.82 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 17.5%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase and a five-year high [1] - The group maintained a gross margin of 30.5%, supported by a higher proportion of high-margin priced jewelry and rising gold prices [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, reflecting confidence in future growth [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for FY26H1 showed positive trends, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau recording SSSG of +2.6% and +4.4%, respectively, representing significant year-on-year improvements of 30.0 and 35.2 percentage points [1] - Retail sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1% year-on-year, while gold retail sales declined by 5.8% [2] - The company launched its first high-end jewelry line, "He Mei Dong Fang," enhancing brand positioning and influence [2] Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook is optimizing its store network by closing underperforming stores and opening new concept stores, focusing on improving single-store efficiency and profitability [2] - In FY25H1, the company closed 609 stores, ending the period with 5,663 stores in mainland China and 151 in Hong Kong/Macau [2] - New concept stores achieved an average monthly sales of HKD 1.3 million, a 72% year-on-year increase, indicating improved productivity [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - Retail growth has accelerated since October, with a 33.9% year-on-year increase in retail value from October 1 to November 18, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [3] - The implementation of a new gold tax policy in early November may temporarily disrupt demand but is expected to raise industry compliance standards, benefiting leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [3] - Profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28 are set at HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 89.1 billion, and HKD 99.0 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 37.3%, 9.8%, and 11.0%, respectively [3] - The target price is set at HKD 19.4, corresponding to a 24 times PE ratio for FY26, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), highlighting its leadership in the jewelry industry, focus on single-store operations, product design optimization, and consumer engagement strategies. Despite a slight revenue decline of 1.1% in H1 FY2026, operating profit increased by 0.7%, indicating steady improvement in profitability [1]. Performance Summary - For H1 FY2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue decline of 1.1% to HKD 38.986 billion, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.823 billion, reflecting a stable recovery. The operating profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 17.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.534 billion, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. Mainland Market Performance - In H1 FY2026, revenue from mainland China decreased by 2.5% to HKD 32.194 billion, with retail channel revenue increasing by 8.1% and wholesale channel revenue declining by 10.2%. The company closed 611 stores, ending the period with 5,663 retail stores, 73% of which are franchise stores. The company is optimizing its retail network and opened 57 new stores, achieving an average monthly sales of over HKD 1.3 million per new store, a 72% increase year-on-year [2]. Product Strategy - The sales revenue from priced gold jewelry increased by 9.3%, accounting for 29.6% of total revenue, up 2.7 percentage points. The company focused on product optimization, with notable sales from its signature series, which reached HKD 3.4 billion, a 48% increase. Conversely, revenue from weight-based gold jewelry declined by 3.8%, with its share dropping by 2.2 percentage points to 65.2%. The company aims to continue optimizing its product structure to enhance profit margins [3]. Regional Market Growth - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 6.5% to HKD 6.792 billion, driven by a recovery in retail consumption and foot traffic. The company is revitalizing existing markets and expanding into high-potential new markets, including Southeast Asia and Oceania, through store upgrades and new openings [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.1% for FY2026, reaching HKD 92.453 billion, and a net profit growth of 36.8% to HKD 8.092 billion, benefiting from rising gold prices and product optimization [4].

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), highlighting its leadership in the jewelry industry, focus on single-store operations, product design optimization, and consumer engagement despite a slight revenue decline in H1 FY2026 [1] Performance Summary - For H1 FY2026, the company's revenue decreased by 1.1% to HKD 38.986 billion, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.823 billion, indicating steady operational improvement [1] - The operating profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 17.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.534 billion, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share and a payout ratio of 85.7% [1] Mainland Market Performance - Revenue in mainland China fell by 2.5% to HKD 32.194 billion, with retail channel revenue increasing by 8.1% and wholesale channel revenue decreasing by 10.2% due to store consolidation [2] - The company focused on optimizing single-store operations and saw a 27.6% increase in e-commerce sales, with 5,663 retail stores in mainland China, 73% of which are franchise stores [2] Product Performance - Revenue from priced gold jewelry increased by 9.3%, accounting for 29.6% of total revenue, while revenue from weight-based gold jewelry decreased by 3.8% [3] - The company emphasized product optimization, with notable sales growth in its signature product lines, achieving HKD 3.4 billion in sales for specific collections, a 48% increase [3] Regional Market Performance - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 6.5% to HKD 6.792 billion, benefiting from improved retail consumption and foot traffic recovery [4] - The company is actively expanding in Southeast Asia and Oceania, enhancing retail experiences through store upgrades and new openings [4] Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.1% for FY2026, reaching HKD 92.453 billion, and a net profit growth of 36.8% to HKD 8.092 billion, driven by rising gold prices and product optimization [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.40 [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.99 billion for FY26H1, showing a year-on-year decline of only 1.1%, indicating a significant improvement from previous periods [1]. - The operating profit reached HKD 6.82 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 17.5%, the highest in nearly five years [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.53 billion, essentially flat compared to the previous year [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, reflecting confidence in future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a gross margin of 30.5%, supported by an increase in high-margin priced jewelry and rising gold prices [1]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau was reported at +2.6% and +4.4%, respectively, showing a significant year-on-year improvement of 30.0 and 35.2 percentage points [2]. - The retail sales of priced gold and jewelry in mainland China showed SSSG of +3.1% and +8.3%, while in Hong Kong/Macau, the figures were +8.5% and +6.1% [2]. Store Network Optimization - The company is optimizing its store network by closing inefficient stores and opening new flagship stores, with a net closure of 609 stores in FY25H1 [3]. - The average monthly sales of new stores opened in FY26H1 reached HKD 1.3 million, a 72% increase year-on-year, indicating improved productivity [3]. - The company plans to open six new stores in Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Canada by June 2026, with a forecasted net closure of 910 stores for the fiscal year [3]. Market Trends and Outlook - Retail sales from October 1 to November 18, 2025, showed a strong growth of 33.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [4]. - The implementation of a new gold tax policy in early November is expected to raise industry compliance standards, potentially benefiting the company due to its robust supply chain and brand strength [4]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for FY26 to be HKD 8.12 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [5].