Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has released a draft regulation aimed at enhancing the management of interbank market brokerage services, addressing the need for specialized regulatory frameworks in this area [1][2] Group 1: Highlights of the Regulation - The regulation clarifies the types and service scope of brokerage institutions, reinforcing unified supervision to ensure these institutions focus on their core intermediary functions in secondary market liquidity facilitation [1][2] - It strengthens capital adequacy and liquidity requirements for brokerage institutions, mandating the establishment of effective "firewall" systems between brokerage and proprietary trading to enhance risk resilience and market fairness [1][3] - A unified trading process and operational standards are established, along with a regular information disclosure mechanism to improve transaction standardization, effectiveness, and transparency, thereby boosting overall market efficiency and investor trust [1][2] Group 2: Compliance and Operational Requirements - Brokerage institutions are restricted to serving only the interbank secondary market, covering various financial products, and are prohibited from participating in primary bond issuance and over-the-counter bond business [3][4] - Institutions must report to the central bank before entering the market, and non-specialized entities must establish independent departments to strictly separate brokerage activities from proprietary trading [3][4] - Real-time disclosure of optimal buy/sell quotes and transaction information is required, with all communications recorded and retained for at least five years [3][4] Group 3: Compliance Capability Enhancement - Banks must adhere to multiple core compliance requirements, including serving only qualified financial institution investors and signing service agreements to clarify responsibilities and trading terms [4][5] - Discriminatory pricing and misleading pricing practices are prohibited to ensure fair access to market prices for clients [4][5] - Banks are encouraged to deploy AI tools to monitor abnormal trading patterns and shift from reliance on information asymmetry to providing high-value services like liquidity analysis and compliance consulting [4][5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains in a narrow - range oscillation. Factors such as "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures that may have short - term impacts on the bond market sentiment, but the overall situation of the bond market has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a portfolio of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year + 4 - 5 - year credit bonds [2][3][57] - The "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are beneficial for improving resource allocation efficiency, but their short - term impact on investment demand may be limited. The long - term impact on the economy needs to be further observed [3][38][54] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The central bank maintains relative looseness within the established framework, and the unfreezing of collateral bonds has limited benefits - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%. The increase in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations was basically in line with high - frequency data, which might be the core factor for the lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio [6] - The central bank's short - term motivation to further relax the aggregate policy has weakened, but its concern about the bond investment risks of small and medium - sized banks has eased, and the constraint of long - term interest rates on liquidity loosening has decreased [13] - The actual capital situation was affected by the tax period. The central bank increased its net investment, and the capital tightened first and then loosened slightly. The short - term capital factor may not drive the interest rate to a new low [14][16] - The central bank's proposed cancellation of the freezing of collateral bonds for bond repurchases may indicate a consideration to restart bond purchases. The expectation of bond purchases may have a limited positive impact on the short - end, but it is unlikely to drive the interest rate to a new low in the short term [16][18] II. Domestic demand weakened significantly in June, but the improvement of financial data boosted macro - expectations - In June, the industrial added - value growth rate reached 6.8%, driven by the increase in export delivery value. However, the Q2 GDP growth rate dropped to 5.2% due to the negative growth of the construction industry [19] - From the demand side, except for the improvement of external demand driven by export rush, consumption and investment growth declined significantly in June. The pressure on external demand may further emerge after July, and consumption growth may face pressure without further policy support [25][29] - In June, fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative, and real - estate sales declined. The sustainability of the rebound in real - estate new construction and completion needs to be observed [32] - In June, financial data was relatively strong. The increase in social financing scale and credit was mainly due to government bond financing and enterprise short - term loans, which may be affected by the strict payment terms of central and state - owned enterprises. This has boosted the expectation of economic improvement and affected the bond market sentiment [35][37][38] III. "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are part of the structural reform, and their short - term impact should not be overestimated - "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures to improve resource allocation efficiency. Strict payment terms are beneficial for accelerating the cash recovery of upstream and mid - stream enterprises, but may not significantly boost investment demand in the short term [3][38][47] - The "anti - involution" mainly restricts local government behavior. The current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear the over - capacity through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, its impact on inflation may take longer to appear [50][51][54] - The implementation of "anti - involution" needs to be further observed, as the central bank's policy on credit has changed between 2024 and 2025 [56] IV. The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. Be patient and wait for the break of the oscillation pattern - The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. The narrow interest - rate spread space makes it difficult for the slowdown of economic momentum to prompt the central bank to implement a new round of loosening policies. The long - term interest rate remains in a narrow - range oscillation [57] - If the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting in late July are limited, the A - share market may enter a correction, and the downward pressure on the fundamentals may further appear, which may drive a qualitative change in the bond market. It is recommended to switch from non - active bonds to active bonds and maintain the current bond portfolio [57][58]

Economic News - In June, the total electricity consumption in China reached 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - The People's Bank of China announced that the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [1] - The U.S. government is reviewing contracts between SpaceX and federal agencies due to concerns over potential waste in multi-billion dollar deals [1] - The Ministry of Transport reported that several key indicators of the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been completed ahead of schedule, including highway mileage and urban rail transit [1] - E-commerce in China saw a growth of 8.5% in online retail sales from January to June 2025, with significant increases in digital products and home appliances [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The European Investment Bank will launch a financing support plan totaling €4.25 billion for renewable energy and green technology investments in EU countries [1] Company News - Yushutech has begun its IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities as the advisor, aiming to submit its application by October 2025 [4] - Suzhou Goodark has been established in Singapore with an investment of approximately 8 million RMB for electronic materials and solar cell production [4] - Hongxin Technology signed contracts with a leading domestic flying car company for the development and procurement of components, which is expected to positively impact its performance [4] - Rainbowsoft's chairman proposed a cash dividend plan for 2025, suggesting a distribution of no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - Changyingtong expects revenue between 173 million to 211 million RMB for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit due to rising demand for optical fiber devices [4] Retail Industry - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a slowdown attributed to the earlier "618" shopping festival and weaker restaurant sales [5][6] - Essential consumption remains stable, while optional categories show a slowdown in recovery, with food and daily necessities performing well [6] - Home appliances and furniture sales saw significant growth, with home appliances up 32.4% and furniture up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by government policies [7] - Online retail sales increased by 8.5% in the first half of 2025, with physical goods online sales growing by 6.0%, indicating a steady growth in online consumption [8] - The retail market is expected to continue its recovery, with a focus on durable goods benefiting from policy support and consumer preferences for high-cost performance products [8]

6月30日，央行公布2025年5月份金融市场运行情况。其中，5月份，银行间同业拆借市场成交6.7万亿 元，同比减少17.3%，环比减少3.8%；债券回购成交129.8万亿元，同比增加7.8%，环比减少4.7%。交 易所标准券回购成交48.6万亿元，同比增长24.7%，环比减少8.0%。5月份，同业拆借加权平均利率 1.55%，环比下降18个基点；质押式回购加权平均利率1.56%，环比下降16个基点。 ...